Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC_Ph) for patient waiting time with a logistic regression component to predict patient admission to hospital

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models are a family of models which represent skewed survival data conditioned on specific inter-related discrete variables. The survival data is modeled using a Coxian phase-type distribution which is associated with the inter-related variables using a range of possible data mining approaches such as Bayesian networks (BNs), the Naïve Bayes Classification method and classification regression trees. This paper utilizes the Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC-Ph) to explore the modeling of patient waiting times in an Accident and Emergency Department of a UK hospital. The resulting DC-Ph model takes on the form of the Coxian phase-type distribution conditioned on the outcome of a logistic regression model.

Relevance of breast cancer hormone receptors and other factors to the efficacy of adjuvant tamoxifen: patient-level meta-analysis of randomised trials

Background: As trials of 5 years of tamoxifen in early breast cancer mature, the relevance of hormone receptor measurements (and other patient characteristics) to long-term outcome can be assessed increasingly reliably. We report updated meta-analyses of the trials of 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen.
Methods: We undertook a collaborative meta-analysis of individual patient data from 20 trials (n=21457) in early breast cancer of about 5 years of tamoxifen versus no adjuvant tamoxifen, with about 80% compliance. Recurrence and death rate ratios (RRs) were from log-rank analyses by allocated treatment.
Findings: In oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease (n=10 645), allocation to about 5 years of tamoxifen substantially reduced recurrence rates throughout the first 10 years (RR 0.53 [SE 0.03] during years 0-4 and RR 0.68 [0.06] during years 5-9 [both 2p<0.00001]; but RR 0.97 [0.10] during years 10-14, suggesting no further gain or loss after year 10). Even in marginally ER-positive disease (10-19 fmol/mg cytosol protein) the recurrence reduction was substantial (RR 0.67 [0.08]). In ER-positive disease, the RR was approximately independent of progesterone receptor status (or level), age, nodal status, or use of chemotherapy. Breast cancer mortality was reduced by about a third throughout the first 15 years (RR 0.71 [0.05] during years 0-4, 0.66 [0.05] during years 5-9, and 0.68 [0.08] during years 10-14; p<0.0001 for extra mortality reduction during each separate time period). Overall non-breast-cancer mortality was little affected, despite small absolute increases in thromboembolic and uterine cancer mortality (both only in women older than 55 years), so all-cause mortality was substantially reduced. In ER-negative disease, tamoxifen had little or no effect on breast cancer recurrence or mortality.
Interpretation: 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen safely reduces 15-year risks of breast cancer recurrence and death. ER status was the only recorded factor importantly predictive of the proportional reductions. Hence, the absolute risk reductions produced by tamoxifen depend on the absolute breast cancer risks (after any chemotherapy) without tamoxifen.
Funding: Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and Medical Research Council.

Effect of radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery on 10-year recurrence and 15-year breast cancer death: meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10,801 women in 17 randomised trials

Background: After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy reduces recurrence and breast cancer death, but it may do so more for some groups of women than for others. We describe the absolute magnitude of these reductions according to various prognostic and other patient characteristics, and relate the absolute reduction in 15-year risk of breast cancer death to the absolute reduction in 10-year recurrence risk.
Methods: We undertook a meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10?801 women in 17 randomised trials of radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery, 8337 of whom had pathologically confirmed node-negative (pN0) or node-positive (pN+) disease.
Findings: Overall, radiotherapy reduced the 10-year risk of any (ie, locoregional or distant) first recurrence from 35·0% to 19·3% (absolute reduction 15·7%, 95% CI 13·7–17·7, 2p<0·00001) and reduced the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 25·2% to 21·4% (absolute reduction 3·8%, 1·6–6·0, 2p=0·00005). In women with pN0 disease (n=7287), radiotherapy reduced these risks from 31·0% to 15·6% (absolute recurrence reduction 15·4%, 13·2–17·6, 2p<0·00001) and from 20·5% to 17·2% (absolute mortality reduction 3·3%, 0·8–5·8, 2p=0·005), respectively. In these women with pN0 disease, the absolute recurrence reduction varied according to age, grade, oestrogen-receptor status, tamoxifen use, and extent of surgery, and these characteristics were used to predict large (=20%), intermediate (10–19%), or lower (<10%) absolute reductions in the 10-year recurrence risk. Absolute reductions in 15-year risk of breast cancer death in these three prediction categories were 7·8% (95% CI 3·1–12·5), 1·1% (–2·0 to 4·2), and 0·1% (–7·5 to 7·7) respectively (trend in absolute mortality reduction 2p=0·03). In the few women with pN+ disease (n=1050), radiotherapy reduced the 10-year recurrence risk from 63·7% to 42·5% (absolute reduction 21·2%, 95% CI 14·5–27·9, 2p<0·00001) and the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 51·3% to 42·8% (absolute reduction 8·5%, 1·8–15·2, 2p=0·01). Overall, about one breast cancer death was avoided by year 15 for every four recurrences avoided by year 10, and the mortality reduction did not differ significantly from this overall relationship in any of the three prediction categories for pN0 disease or for pN+ disease.
Interpretation: After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy to the conserved breast halves the rate at which the disease recurs and reduces the breast cancer death rate by about a sixth. These proportional benefits vary little between different groups of women. By contrast, the absolute benefits from radiotherapy vary substantially according to the characteristics of the patient and they can be predicted at the time when treatment decisions need to be made.
Funding: Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council.

Do multinationals really prefer to enter culturally distant countries through greenfields rather than through acquisitions? The role of parent experience and subsidiary autonomy.

Prior research has argued that multinational enterprises (MNEs) prefer to enter culturally distant countries through greenfields rather than through acquisitions, since acquisitions in such countries are costlier to manage. This argument contains two hidden assumptions: (1) the additional costs of acquisitions in culturally distant countries are the same for all MNEs; and (2) such acquisitions have no benefits over their greenfield counterparts. In this paper we relax these two assumptions by arguing that an MNE's preference for greenfields in culturally distant countries depends on its international and host-country experience, and on the level of autonomy it plans to grant the focal subsidiary. Analyzing 171 wholly owned greenfield investments and full acquisitions made by Dutch MNEs in 35 countries, we find that these MNEs prefer to enter culturally distant countries through greenfields, but that this preference is lower when they have little international experience, or plan to grant the focal subsidiary considerable autonomy in marketing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Keeping it real! Enhancing realism in standardised patient OSCE stations

Background: Objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs) are a
commonly used method of assessing clinical competency in healthcare education. They can providean opportunity to observe candidates interacting with patients.
There are many challenges in using real patients in OSCEs, and increasingly standardised patients are being used as a preference. However, by using standardised patients there is a risk of making the encounter arti?cial and removed from actual clinical practice.
Context: Efforts made in terms of cognitive, auditory, visual, tactile, psychological and emotional cues can minimise the differences between a simulated
and real clinical scenario. However, a number of factors, including feasibility, cost and usability, need to be considered if such techniques are to be practicable
within an OSCE framework.
Innovation: This article describes a series of techniques that have been used in our institution to enhance the realism of a standardised patient encounter in an
OSCE. Efforts in preparing standardised patient roles, and how they portray these roles, will be considered. A wide variety of equipment can also be used in
combination with a patient and the surrounding environment, which can further enhance the authenticity of the simulated scenario.
Implications: By enhancing the realism in simulated patient OSCE encounters, there is potential to trigger more authentic conscious responses from candidates and implicit reactions that the candidates themselves may be less
aware of. Furthermore, using such techniques may allow faculty members to select scenarios that were previously not thought possible in an OSCE

A systematic review of quantitative studies reporting selected patient experienced outcomes, with a specific focus on gender differences in people with colorectal cancer

Men with colorectal cancer have a higher mortality rate than their female counterparts. Despite this, there is a limited understanding of the impact gender has on the experience of colorectal cancer.

Informed Consent: Autonomy and Self-Ownership

Using the example of an unconsented mouth swab I criticise the view that an action of this kind taken in itself is wrongful in respect of its being a violation of autonomy. This is so much inasmuch as autonomy merits respect only with regard to ‘critical life choices’. I consider the view that such an action is nevertheless harmful or risks serious harm. I also respond to two possible suggestions: that the action is of a kind that violates autonomy; and, that the class of such actions violates autonomy. I suggest that the action is wrongful in as much as it is a bodily trespass. I consider, and criticise, two ways of understanding how morally I stand to my own body: as owner and as sovereign. In respect of the latter I consider Arthur Ripstein’s recent defence of a sovereignty principle. Finally I criticise an attempt by Joel Feinberg to explain bodily trespass in terms of personal autonomy.