Seven key actions to eradicate rheumatic heart disease in Africa: the Addis Ababa communiqué

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remain major causes of heart failure, stroke and death among African women and children, despite being preventable and imminently treatable. From 21 to 22 February 2015, the Social Cluster of the Africa Union Commission (AUC) hosted a consultation with RHD experts convened by the Pan-African Society of Cardiology (PASCAR) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to develop a 'roadmap' of key actions that need to be taken by governments to eliminate ARF and eradicate RHD in Africa. Seven priority areas for action were adopted: (1) create prospective disease registers at sentinel sites in affected countries to measure disease burden and track progress towards the reduction of mortality by 25% by the year 2025, (2) ensure an adequate supply of high-quality benzathine penicillin for the primary and secondary prevention of ARF/RHD, (3) improve access to reproductive health services for women with RHD and other non-communicable diseases (NCD), (4) decentralise technical expertise and technology for diagnosing and managing ARF and RHD (including ultrasound of the heart), (5) establish national and regional centres of excellence for essential cardiac surgery for the treatment of affected patients and training of cardiovascular practitioners of the future, (6) initiate national multi-sectoral RHD programmes within NCD control programmes of affected countries, and (7) foster international partnerships with multinational organisations for resource mobilisation, monitoring and evaluation of the programme to end RHD in Africa. This Addis Ababa communiqué has since been endorsed by African Union heads of state, and plans are underway to implement the roadmap in order to end ARF and RHD in Africa in our lifetime.

Appropriate complexity for the prediction of coastal and estuarine geomorphic behaviour at decadal to centennial scales

Coastal and estuarine landforms provide a physical template that not only accommodates diverse ecosystem functions and human activities, but also mediates flood and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. In this paper, we explore some of the issues associated with the conceptualisation and modelling of coastal morphological change at time and space scales relevant to managers and policy makers. Firstly, we revisit the question of how to define the most appropriate scales at which to seek quantitative predictions of landform change within an age defined by human interference with natural sediment systems and by the prospect of significant changes in climate and ocean forcing. Secondly, we consider the theoretical bases and conceptual frameworks for determining which processes are most important at a given scale of interest and the related problem of how to translate this understanding into models that are computationally feasible, retain a sound physical basis and demonstrate useful predictive skill. In particular, we explore the limitations of a primary scale approach and the extent to which these can be resolved with reference to the concept of the coastal tract and application of systems theory. Thirdly, we consider the importance of different styles of landform change and the need to resolve not only incremental evolution of morphology but also changes in the qualitative dynamics of a system and/or its gross morphological configuration. The extreme complexity and spatially distributed nature of landform systems means that quantitative prediction of future changes must necessarily be approached through mechanistic modelling of some form or another. Geomorphology has increasingly embraced so-called ‘reduced complexity’ models as a means of moving from an essentially reductionist focus on the mechanics of sediment transport towards a more synthesist view of landform evolution. However, there is little consensus on exactly what constitutes a reduced complexity model and the term itself is both misleading and, arguably, unhelpful. Accordingly, we synthesise a set of requirements for what might be termed ‘appropriate complexity modelling’ of quantitative coastal morphological change at scales commensurate with contemporary management and policy-making requirements: 1) The system being studied must be bounded with reference to the time and space scales at which behaviours of interest emerge and/or scientific or management problems arise; 2) model complexity and comprehensiveness must be appropriate to the problem at hand; 3) modellers should seek a priori insights into what kind of behaviours are likely to be evident at the scale of interest and the extent to which the behavioural validity of a model may be constrained by its underlying assumptions and its comprehensiveness; 4) informed by qualitative insights into likely dynamic behaviour, models should then be formulated with a view to resolving critical state changes; and 5) meso-scale modelling of coastal morphological change should reflect critically on the role of modelling and its relation to the observable world.

Food fraud and consumers' choices in the wake of the horsemeat scandal

Purpose – In 2012, the European food industry was hit by a food fraud: horsemeat was found in
pre-prepared foods, without any declaration on the package. This is commonly referred to as the
“horsemeat scandal”. The purpose of this paper is to investigate consumers’ preferences across
Europe for a selected ready meal, ready to heat (RTH) fresh lasagne, to consider whether the effects of
potential food frauds on consumers’ choices can be mitigated by introducing enhanced standards of
RTH products.
Design/methodology/approach – An online survey was administered to 4,598 consumers of RTH
lasagne in six European countries (Republic of Ireland, France, Italy, Spain, Germany and Norway),
applying discrete choice experiments to estimate consumers’ willingness to pay for enhanced food
safety standards and highlight differences between countries.
Findings – Many similarities across countries emerged, as well as some differences. Consumers in
Europe are highly concerned with the authenticity of the meat in ready meals and strongly prefer to
know that ingredients are nationally sourced. Strong regional differences in price premiums exist for
enhanced food safety standards.
Originality/value – This research adds relevant insights in the analysis of consumers’ reaction to
food fraud, providing practical guidelines on the most appropriate practices that producers should
adopt and on the information to reduce food risk perception among consumers. This would prove
beneficial for the food processing industry and the European Union. The survey is based on a
representative sample of European consumers making this the largest cross-country study of this kind.

Metabolically-inactive glucagon-like peptide-1(9-36)amide confers selective protective actions against post-myocardial infarction remodelling

BACKGROUND: Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) therapies are routinely used for glycaemic control in diabetes and their emerging cardiovascular actions have been a major recent research focus. In addition to GLP-1 receptor activation, the metabolically-inactive breakdown product, GLP-1(9-36)amide, also appears to exert notable cardiovascular effects, including protection against acute cardiac ischaemia. Here, we specifically studied the influence of GLP-1(9-36)amide on chronic post-myocardial infarction (MI) remodelling, which is a major driver of heart failure progression.

METHODS: Adult female C57BL/6 J mice were subjected to permanent coronary artery ligation or sham surgery prior to continuous infusion with GLP-1(9-36)amide or vehicle control for 4 weeks.

RESULTS: Infarct size was similar between groups with no effect of GLP-1(9-36)amide on MI-induced cardiac hypertrophy, although modest reduction of in vitro phenylephrine-induced H9c2 cardiomyoblast hypertrophy was observed. Whilst echocardiographic systolic dysfunction post-MI remained unchanged, diastolic dysfunction (decreased mitral valve E/A ratio, increased E wave deceleration rate) was improved by GLP-1(9-36)amide treatment. This was associated with modulation of genes related to extracellular matrix turnover (MMP-2, MMP-9, TIMP-2), although interstitial fibrosis and pro-fibrotic gene expression were unaltered by GLP-1(9-36)amide. Cardiac macrophage infiltration was also reduced by GLP-1(9-36)amide together with pro-inflammatory cytokine expression (IL-1β, IL-6, MCP-1), whilst in vitro studies using RAW264.7 macrophages revealed global potentiation of basal pro-inflammatory and tissue protective cytokines (e.g. IL-1β, TNF-α, IL-10, Fizz1) in the presence of GLP-1(9-36)amide versus exendin-4.

CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that GLP-1(9-36)amide confers selective protection against post-MI remodelling via preferential preservation of diastolic function, most likely due to modulation of infiltrating macrophages, indicating that this often overlooked GLP-1 breakdown product may exert significant actions in this setting which should be considered in the context of GLP-1 therapy in patients with cardiovascular disease.

Selection of the most appropriate roadside vehicle restraint system – the SAVeRS project

Run Off Road (ROR) crashes are road accidents that often result in severe injuries or fatalities. To reduce the severity of ROR crashes, “forgiving roadsides” need to be designed and this includes identifying situations where there is a need for a Vehicle Restraint System (VRS) and what appropriate VRS should be selected for a specific location and traffic condition. Whilst there are standards covering testing, evaluation and classification of VRS within Europe (EN1317 parts 1 to 8), their selection, location and installation requirements are typically based upon national guidelines and standards, often produced by National Road Authorities (NRA) and/or overseeing organisations. Due to local conditions, these national guidelines vary across Europe.
The European SAVeRS project funded by CEDR has developed a practical and readily understandable VRS guidance document and a user-friendly software tool which allow designers and road administrations to select the most appropriate solution in different road and traffic conditions.
This paper describes the main outcomes of the project, the process to select the most appropriate roadside barrier, and the user friendly SAVeRS tool.

Pharmacist-led feedback workshops increase appropriate prescribing of antimicrobials

Objectives To investigate whether and how structured feedback sessions can increase rates of appropriate antimicrobial prescribing by junior doctors.

Methods This was a mixed-methods study, with a conceptual orientation towards complexity and systems thinking. Fourteen junior doctors, in their first year of training, were randomized to intervention (feedback) and 21 to control (routine practice) groups in a single UK teaching hospital. Feedback on their antimicrobial prescribing was given, in writing and via group sessions. Pharmacists assessed the appropriateness of all new antimicrobial prescriptions 2 days per week for 6 months (46 days). The mean normalized prescribing rates of suboptimal to all prescribing were compared between groups using the t-test. Thematic analysis of qualitative interviews with 10 participants investigated whether and how the intervention had impact.

Results Data were collected on 204 prescriptions for 166 patients. For the intervention group, the mean normalized rate of suboptimal to all prescribing was 0.32 ± 0.36; for the control group, it was 0.68 ± 0.36. The normalized rates of suboptimal prescribing were significantly different between the groups (P = 0.0005). The qualitative data showed that individuals' prescribing behaviour was influenced by a complex series of dynamic interactions between individual and social variables, such as interplay between personal knowledge and the expectations of others.

Conclusions The feedback intervention increased appropriate prescribing by acting as a positive stimulus within a complex network of behavioural influences. Prescribing behaviour is adaptive and can be positively influenced by structured feedback. Changing doctors' perceptions of acceptable, typical and best practice could reduce suboptimal antimicrobial prescribing.