Using geostatistical Bayesian Updating to integrate airborne radiometrics and soil geochemistry to improve mapping for mineral exploration

Mineral exploration programmes around the world use data from remote sensing, geophysics and direct sampling. On a regional scale, the combination of airborne geophysics and ground-based geochemical sampling can aid geological mapping and economic minerals exploration. The fact that airborne geophysical and traditional soil-sampling data are generated at different spatial resolutions means that they are not immediately comparable due to their different sampling density. Several geostatistical techniques, including indicator cokriging and collocated cokriging, can be used to integrate different types of data into a geostatistical model. With increasing numbers of variables the inference of the cross-covariance model required for cokriging can be demanding in terms of effort and computational time. In this paper a Gaussian-based Bayesian updating approach is applied to integrate airborne radiometric data and ground-sampled geochemical soil data to maximise information generated from the soil survey, to enable more accurate geological interpretation for the exploration and development of natural resources. The Bayesian updating technique decomposes the collocated estimate into a production of two models: prior and likelihood models. The prior model is built from primary information and the likelihood model is built from secondary information. The prior model is then updated with the likelihood model to build the final model. The approach allows multiple secondary variables to be simultaneously integrated into the mapping of the primary variable. The Bayesian updating approach is demonstrated using a case study from Northern Ireland where the history of mineral prospecting for precious and base metals dates from the 18th century. Vein-hosted, strata-bound and volcanogenic occurrences of mineralisation are found. The geostatistical technique was used to improve the resolution of soil geochemistry, collected one sample per 2 km2, by integrating more closely measured airborne geophysical data from the GSNI Tellus Survey, measured over a footprint of 65 x 200 m. The directly measured geochemistry data were considered as primary data in the Bayesian approach and the airborne radiometric data were used as secondary data. The approach produced more detailed updated maps and in particular maximized information on mapped estimates of zinc, copper and lead. Greater delineation of an elongated northwest/southeast trending zone in the updated maps strengthened the potential to investigate stratabound base metal deposits.

When does information about causal structure improve statistical reasoning?

Base rate neglect on the mammography problem can be overcome by explicitly presenting a causal basis for the typically vague false-positive statistic. One account of this causal facilitation effect is that people make probabilistic judgements over intuitive causal models parameterized with the evidence in the problem. Poorly defined or difficult-to-map evidence interferes with this process, leading to errors in statistical reasoning. To assess whether the construction of parameterized causal representations is an intuitive or deliberative process, in Experiment 1 we combined a secondary load paradigm with manipulations of the presence or absence of an alternative cause in typical statistical reasoning problems. We found limited effects of a secondary load, no evidence that information about an alternative cause improves statistical reasoning, but some evidence that it reduces base rate neglect errors. In Experiments 2 and 3 where we did not impose a load, we observed causal facilitation effects. The amount of Bayesian responding in the causal conditions was impervious to the presence of a load (Experiment 1) and to the precise statistical information that was presented (Experiment 3). However, we found less Bayesian responding in the causal condition than previously reported. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings and the suggestion that there may be population effects in the accuracy of statistical reasoning.

Preliminary analysis of organic Rankine cycles to improve vehicle efficiency

This paper presents the background rationale and key findings for a model-based study of supercritical waste heat recovery organic Rankine cycles. The paper’s objective is to cover the necessary groundwork to facilitate the future operation of a thermodynamic organic Rankine cycle model under realistic thermodynamic boundary conditions for performance optimisation of organic Rankine cycles. This involves determining the type of power cycle for organic Rankine cycles, the circuit configuration and suitable boundary conditions. The study focuses on multiple heat sources from vehicles but the findings are generally applicable, with careful consideration, to any waste heat recovery system. This paper introduces waste heat recovery and discusses the general merits of organic fluids versus water and supercritical operation versus subcritical operation from a theoretical perspective and, where possible, from a practical perspective. The benefits of regeneration are investigated from an efficiency perspective for selected subcritical and supercritical conditions. A simulation model is described with an introduction to some general Rankine cycle boundary conditions. The paper describes the analysis of real hybrid vehicle data from several driving cycles and its manipulation to represent the thermal inertia for model heat input boundary conditions. Basic theory suggests that selecting the operating pressures and temperatures to maximise the Rankine cycle performance is relatively straightforward. However, it was found that this may not be the case for an organic Rankine cycle operating in a vehicle. When operating in a driving cycle, the available heat and its quality can vary with the power output and between heat sources. For example, the available coolant heat does not vary much with the load, whereas the quantity and quality of the exhaust heat varies considerably. The key objective for operation in the vehicle is optimum utilisation of the available heat by delivering the maximum work out. The fluid selection process and the presentation and analysis of the final results of the simulation work on organic Rankine cycles are the subjects of two future publications.

In pursuit of regulatory compliance: a study of planning enforcement structures in Northern Ireland

As devolution expands across the UK, Northern Ireland (NI) is witnessing the development of new architecture to devolve planning powers. With serious criticism targeted at the legislative provisions for enforcement, this investigation endeavours to assess the robustness of the planning framework through a synergy of theory, law and practice. The paper demonstrates the value of theory in not only supplying a lens that allows both legislative frameworks and praxis to be deconstructed, but also in enabling the identification and scrutiny of underlying problems that pervade the system.

Working with fathers to improve children's well-being: Results of a survey exploring service provision and intervention approach in the UK

Interventions for fathers are a recent growth area in family services. Although some specific approaches are beginning to be evaluated, there is little known about what kinds of interventions are more generally being used in practice. A web-based survey of practitioners was conducted in the UK, with contact being made via local authority service managers. Two hundred and twenty-one responses were received from 53% of local authorities. Both interventions specifically for fathers and services for both parents were targeted in the survey. Results are reported on organisational location; targeting of services; type of intervention; numbers and percentages of men attending services, recruitment of fathers; evaluation strategies; and ideological and theoretical approaches. Numbers of fathers engaged are relatively low - e.g. the median annual number of fathers attending structured parenting courses was eight and in courses for both parents, 21% of those attending were men. Responses on ideological and theoretical approaches suggest that overt gender politics play only a small part, but that the dominant views of practitioners are in line with mainstream approaches to parenting support. Cognitive and behavioral approaches were the most popular.

Banking compliance and dependence corruption: towards an attachment perspective

Why did banking compliance fail so badly in the recent financial crisis and why, according to many, does it continue to do so? Rather than point to the lack of oversight of individuals in bank compliance roles, as many commentators do, in this paper I examine in depth the organizational context that surrounded people in such roles. I focus on those compliance personnel who did speak out about risky practices in their banks, who were forced to escalate the problem and 'whistle-blow' to external parties, and who were punished for doing so. Drawing on recent empirical data from a wider study, I argue that the concept of dependence corruption is useful in this setting, and that it can be extended to encompass interpersonal attachments. This, in turn, problematises the concept of dependence corruption because interpersonal attachments in organisational settings are inevitable. The paper engages with recent debates on whether institutional corruption is an appropriate lens for studying private-sector organisations by arguing for a focus on roles, rather than remaining at the level of institutional fields or individual organisations. Finally, the paper contributes to studies on banking compliance in the context of the recent crisis; without a deeper understanding of those who were forced to extremes to simply do their jobs, reform of the banking sector will prove difficult.

Creating an eLearning Resource to Improve Knowledge and Understanding of Pregnancy in the Context of HIV Infection

Patient narratives have much to teach healthcare professionals about the experience of living with a chronic condition. While the biomedical narrative of HIV treatment is hugely encouraging, the narrative of living with HIV continues to be overshadowed by a persuasive perception of stigma. This paper presents how we sought to translate the evidence from a qualitative study of the perspectives of HIV affected pregnant women and expectant fathers on the care they received, from the pre conception to post natal period, into educational material for maternity care practice. Narrative scripts were written based on the original research interviews, with care taken to reflect the key themes from the research. We explore the way in which the qualitative findings bring to life patient and partner experiences and what it means for nurses, midwives and doctors to be prepared to care for couples affected by HIV. In so doing, we challenge the inequity between the dominance of biomedical knowledge over understanding the patient experience in the preparation of health professionals to care for HIV affected women and men who are having a baby or seeking to have a baby.

Combining global climate and regional landscape models to improve prediction of invasion risk

Aim
It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial scales. Here, we aimed to (1) determine the extent to which global climate niche models (CNMs) can be improved by the addition of fine-scale regional data; (2) examine climatic and environmental factors influencing the range of 15 invasive aquatic plant species; and (3) provide a case study for the use of such models in invasion management on an island.

Location
Global, with a case study of species invasions in Ireland.

Methods
Climate niche models of global extent (including climate only) and regional environmental niche models (with additional factors such as human influence, land use and soil characteristics) were generated using maxent for 15 invasive aquatic plants. The performance of these models within the invaded range of the study species in Ireland was assessed, and potential hotspots of invasion suitability were determined. Models were projected forward up to 2080 based on two climate scenarios.

Results
While climate variables are important in defining the global range of species, factors related to land use and nutrient level were of greater importance in regional projections. Global climatic models were significantly improved at the island scale by the addition of fine-scale environmental variables (area under the curve values increased by 0.18 and true skill statistic values by 0.36), and projected ranges decreased from an average of 86% to 36% of the island.

Main conclusions
Refining CNMs with regional data on land use, human influence and landscape may have a substantial impact on predictive capacity, providing greater value for prioritization of conservation management at subregional or local scales.

Comparison of 5% versus 15% sucrose intakes as part of a eucaloric diet in overweight and obese subjects:effects on insulin sensitivity, glucose metabolism, vascular compliance, body composition and lipid profile. A randomised controlled trial

AIMS: The effect of dietary sucrose on insulin resistance and the pathogenesis of diabetes and vascular disease is unclear. We assessed the effect of 5% versus 15% sucrose intakes as part of a weight maintaining, eucaloric diet in overweight/obese subjects.

METHODS: Thirteen subjects took part in a randomised controlled crossover study (M:F 9:4, median age 46 years, range 37-56 years, BMI 31.7±0.9 kg/m(2)). Subjects completed two 6 week dietary periods separated by 4 week washout. Diets were designed to have identical macronutrient profile. Insulin action was assessed using a two-step hyperinsulinaemic euglycaemic clamp; glucose tolerance, vascular compliance, body composition and lipid profiles were also assessed.

RESULTS: There was no change in weight or body composition between diets. There was no difference in peripheral glucose utilization or suppression of endogenous glucose production. Fasting glucose was significantly lower after the 5% diet. There was no demonstrated effect on lipid profiles, blood pressure or vascular compliance.

CONCLUSION: A low-sucrose diet had no beneficial effect on insulin resistance as measured by the euglycaemic glucose clamp. However, reductions in fasting glucose, one hour insulin and insulin area under the curve with the low sucrose diet on glucose tolerance testing may indicate a beneficial effect and further work is required to determine if this is the case. Clinical Trial Registration number ISRCTN50808730.