Can(Plan)+: Extending the Operational Semantics of the BDI Architecture to deal with Uncertain Information

The BDI architecture, where agents are modelled based on their beliefs, desires and intentions, provides a practical approach to develop large scale systems. However, it is not well suited to model complex Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems pervaded by uncertainty. In this paper we address this issue by extending the operational semantics of Can(Plan) into Can(Plan)+. We start by modelling the beliefs of an agent as a set of epistemic states where each state, possibly using a different representation, models part of the agent's beliefs. These epistemic states are stratified to make them commensurable and to reason about the uncertain beliefs of the agent. The syntax and semantics of a BDI agent are extended accordingly and we identify fragments with computationally efficient semantics. Finally, we examine how primitive actions are affected by uncertainty and we define an appropriate form of lookahead planning.

Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON): Observations of the Dust Grains from SOFIA and of the Atomic Gas from NSO Dunn and McMath-Pierce Solar Telescopes (Invited)

Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) is unique in that it is a dynamically new comet derived from the Oort cloud reservoir of comets with a sun-grazing orbit. Infrared (IR) and visible wavelength observing campaigns were planned on NASA's Stratospheric Observatory For Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) and on National Solar Observatory Dunn (DST) and McMath-Pierce Solar Telescopes, respectively. We highlight our early results. SOFIA (+FORCAST [1]) mid- to far-IR images and spectroscopy (~5-35 μm) of the dust in the coma of ISON are to be obtained by the ISON-SOFIA Team during a flight window 2013 Oct 21-23 UT (r_h≈1.18 AU). Dust characteristics, identified through the 10 μm silicate emission feature and its strength [2], as well as spectral features from cometary crystalline silicates (Forsterite) at 11.05-11.2 μm, and near 16, 19, 23.5, 27.5, and 33 μm are compared with other Oort cloud comets that span the range of small and/or highly porous grains (e.g., C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp) [3,4,5] and C/2001 Q4 (NEAT) [6]) to large and/or compact grains (e.g., C/2007 N4 (Lulin) [7] and C/2006 P1 (McNaught) [8]). Measurement of the crystalline peaks in contrast to the broad 10 and 20 μm amorphous silicate features yields the cometary silicate crystalline mass fraction [9], which is a benchmark for radial transport in our protoplanetary disk [10]. The central wavelength positions, relative intensities, and feature asymmetries for the crystalline peaks may constrain the shapes of the crystals [11]. Only SOFIA can look for cometary organics in the 5-8 μm region. Spatially resolved measurements of atoms and simple molecules from when comet ISON is near the Sun (r_h<0.4 AU, near Nov-20--Dec-03 UT) were proposed for by the ISON-DST Team. Comet ISON is the first comet since comet Ikeya-Seki (1965f) [12,13] suitable for studying the alkalai metals Na and K and the atoms specifically attributed to dust grains including Mg, Si, Fe, as well as Ca. DST's Horizontal Grating Spectrometer (HGS) measures 4 settings: Na I, K, C2 to sample cometary organics (along with Mg I), and [O I] as a proxy for activity from water [14] (along with Si I and Fe I). State-of-the-art instruments that will also be employed include IBIS [15], which is a Fabry-Perot spectral imaging system that concurrently measures lines of Na, K, Ca II, or Fe, and ROSA (CSUN/QUB) [16], which is a rapid imager that simultaneously monitors Ca II or CN. From McMath-Pierce, the Solar-Stellar Spectrograph also will target ISON (320-900 nm, R~21,000, r_h

The Shifting Battleground of Article 4(2) TEU: Evolving National Identities and the corresponding need for EU management?

Article 4(2) TEU requires that the European Union (EU) respect the Member States’ national identities, creating a legal obligation enforceable before the CJEU and valuable in political negotiations. However, the concept of national identities is unclear, leaving open questions about the scope or parameters of the provision and its applicability. The CJEU appears likely to take a relatively flexible approach in light of Article 4(2) TEU’s relationship with national constitutional courts’ reserves. This flexible approach would enable Member States to rely upon a range of aspects as part of their national identity, including ones that were previously unidentified. This is a crucial feature if one considers that national identities may evolve gradually or even dramatically, including where Member States purposefully attempt to develop their national identities further. This possibility of an evolved national identity is exemplified by the French Charte de l’Environnement. It may thereby be possible for Member States to stretch the scope and application of Article 4(2) TEU through reference to these evolving national identities. This potential raises significant challenges for the EU regarding the management of Article 4(2) TEU, which it will need to address if it wishes to ensure harmonisation and uniformity in the relevant areas.

THE SAAF STUDY: evaluation of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF), compared with management as usual, for improving outcomes for children and young people who have experienced, or are at risk of, maltreatment: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Serious case reviews and research studies have indicated weaknesses in risk assessments conducted by child protection social workers. Social workers are adept at gathering information but struggle with analysis and assessment of risk. The Department for Education wants to know if the use of a structured decision-making tool can improve child protection assessments of risk.

Methods/design: This multi-site, cluster-randomised trial will assess the effectiveness of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF). This structured decision-making tool aims to improve social workers' assessments of harm, of future risk and parents' capacity to change. The comparison is management as usual.

Inclusion criteria: Children's Services Departments (CSDs) in England willing to make relevant teams available to be randomised, and willing to meet the trial's training and data collection requirements.

Exclusion criteria: CSDs where there were concerns about performance; where a major organisational restructuring was planned or under way; or where other risk assessment tools were in use.

Six CSDs are participating in this study. Social workers in the experimental arm will receive 2 days training in SAAF together with a range of support materials, and access to limited telephone consultation post-training. The primary outcome is child maltreatment. This will be assessed using data collected nationally on two key performance indicators: the first is the number of children in a year who have been subject to a second Child Protection Plan (CPP); the second is the number of re-referrals of children because of related concerns about maltreatment. Secondary outcomes are: i) the quality of assessments judged against a schedule of quality criteria and ii) the relationship between the three assessments required by the structured decision-making tool (level of harm, risk of (re) abuse and prospects for successful intervention).

Discussion: This is the first study to examine the effectiveness of SAAF. It will contribute to a very limited literature on the contribution that structured decision-making tools can make to improving risk assessment and case planning in child protection and on what is involved in their effective implementation.

Evolving national park models: The emergence of an economic imperative and its effect on the contested nature of the 'national' park concept in Northern Ireland.

National park models have evolved in tandem with the emergence of a multifunctional countryside. Sustainable development has been added to the traditional twin aims of conservation and recreation. This is typified by recent national park designations, such as the Cairngorms National Park in Scotland. A proposed Mournes national park in Northern Ireland has evolved a stage further with a model of national park to deliver national economic goals envisaged by government. This seeks to commodify the natural landscape. This paper compares Cairngorm and Mourne stakeholders’ views on the principal features of both models: park aims, management structures and planning functions. While Cairngorm stakeholders were largely positive from the outset, the model of national park introduced is not without criticism. Conversely, Mourne stakeholders have adopted an anti-national park stance. Nevertheless, the model of national park proposed possessing a strong economic imperative, an absence of the Sandford Principle as a means to manage likely conflicts, and lacking any planning powers in its own right, may still be insufficient to bring about widespread support for a Mourne national park. Such a model is also likely to accelerate the degradation of the Mourne landscape. Competing national identities (British and Irish) provide an additional dimension to the national park debate in Northern Ireland. Deep ideological cleavages are capable of derailing the introduction of a national park irrespective of the model proposed. In Northern Ireland the national park debate is not only about reconciling environmental and economic interests but also political and ethno-national differences.

The death of massive stars - II. Observational constraints on the progenitors of Type Ibc supernovae

The progenitors of many Type II core-collapse supernovae (SNe) have now been identified directly on pre-discovery imaging. Here, we present an extensive search for the progenitors of Type Ibc SNe in all available pre-discovery imaging since 1998. There are 12 Type Ibc SNe with no detections of progenitors in either deep ground-based or Hubble Space Telescope archival imaging. The deepest absolute BVR magnitude limits are between -4 and - 5 mag. We compare these limits with the observed Wolf-Rayet population in the Large Magellanic Cloud and estimate a 16 per cent probability that we have failed to detect such a progenitor by chance. Alternatively, the progenitors evolve significantly before core-collapse or we have underestimated the extinction towards the progenitors. Reviewing the relative rates and ejecta mass estimates from light-curve modelling of Ibc SNe, we find both incompatible with Wolf-Rayet stars with initial masses >25 M⊙ being the only progenitors. We present binary evolution models that fit these observational constraints. Stars in binaries with initial masses ≲ 20 M⊙ lose their hydrogen envelopes in binary interactions to become low-mass helium stars. They retain a low-mass hydrogen envelope until ≈104 yr before core-collapse; hence, it is not surprising that Galactic analogues have been difficult to identify.

Molecular Medicine and Molecular Pathology for Hematologists:II. Lets go Techno; Principles of the Molecular Technologies and their Applications in Haematology

Molecular techniques have a key role to play in laboratory and clinical haematology. Restriction enzymes allow nucleic acids to be reduced in size for subsequent analysis. In addition they allow selection of specific DNA or RNA sequences for cloning into bacterial plasmids. These plasmids are naturally occuring DNA molecules which reside in bacterial cells. They can be manipulated to act as vehicles or carriers for biologically and medically important genes, allowing the production of large amounts of cloned material for research purposes or to aid in the production of medically important recombinant molecules such as insulin. As acquired or inherited genetic changes are implicated in a wide range of haematological diseases, it is necessary to have highly specific and sensitive assays to detect these mutations. Most of these techniques rely on nucleic acid hybridisation, benefitting from the ability of DNA or RNA to bind tighly to complimentary bases in the nucleic acid structure. Production of artificial DNA molecules called probes permits nucleic acid hybridiation assays to be performed, using the techniques of southern blotting or dot blot analysis. In addition the base composition of any gene or region of DNA can be determined using DNA sequencing technology. The advent of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has revolutionised all aspects of medicine, but has particular relevance in haematology where easy access to biopsy material provides a wealth of material for analysis. PCR permits quick and reliable manipulation of sample material and its ability to be automated makes it an ideal tool for use in the haematology laboratory.