Pupillary and visual thresholds in young children as an index of population vitamin A status

A prototype scotopic sensitivity machine was used to evaluate pupillary and visual thresholds for 295 Indonesian children aged 1-5 y, most of whom were initially vitamin A-deficient. Subjects were tested 6 and 9 mo after receiving a high dose of vitamin A. A group of 136 older children was tested at 6 mo after dosing; all subjects underwent testing at 9 mo. After testing at 9 mo, children randomly received either a second high dose of vitamin A or placebo and were tested a final time 2 wk later. Children with abnormal pupillary thresholds had significantly higher relative dose responses (RDRs) (P < 0.01) and significantly lower serum retinol values (P = 0.05) than did normal children. The mean pupillary threshold rose (eg, retinal sensitivity fell) as vitamin A status deteriorated between 6 and 9 mo after initial dosing, and was significantly different from a group of normal American children tested previously (P < 0.001). After placebo-controlled dosing, the decline in pupillary and visual thresholds (rise in retinal sensitivity) was significant for children receiving vitamin A but not for children receiving placebo.

Pupillary threshold as an index of population vitamin A status among children in India

Two hundred seven vitamin A-deficient southern Indian children aged 1-7 y (mean age: 56.9 mo) underwent testing of dark-adapted visual and pupillary thresholds in their village setting according to a previously reported protocol. One hundred thirty (62.8%) of the children also underwent serum retinol testing, and 178 (86.0%) participated in a randomized, placebo-controlled vitamin A dosing trial with pre- and postdose testing of dark-adaptation threshold. Most subjects (184 of 207, 88.9%) were able to complete pupillary testing, an objective sign requiring minimal cooperation, including a high proportion of the youngest children (72.2% of subjects aged 2 y). The proportion of children completing visual threshold testing, which requires greater understanding and cooperation, was significantly smaller than that able to complete pupillary testing (131 of 207, 63.3%; P < 0.0001, chi square). At baseline (predosing), the mean serum retinol concentration declined in linear fashion with a higher pupillary threshold (0.73 mumol/L with a score < or = 4; 0.47 mumol/L with a score > or = 8; P < 0.01). The mean pupillary threshold for these highly vitamin A-deficient Indian children (-0.622 log cd/m2) was significantly higher than that for 136 more moderately deficient Indonesian children (-0.985 log cd/m2; P < 0.001, two-sample t test) and 56 normal American children (-1.335 log cd/m2; P < 0.0001, two-sample t test). The improvement in pupillary dark-adaptation testing was not significant for children receiving vitamin A or placebo, though there was a nonsignificant trend toward greater improvement in children receiving vitamin A (P = 0.2, two-sample t test). Pupillary threshold testing represents a new, noninvasive, practical, and seemingly valid approach to assessing the vitamin A status of a moderately to severely deficient preschool population.

Nuclear cataract shows significant familial aggregation in an older population after adjustment for possible shared environmental factors.

PURPOSE: To quantify the association between siblings in age-related nuclear cataract, after adjusting for known environmental and personal risk factors. METHODS: All participants (probands) in the Salisbury Eye Evaluation (SEE) project and their locally resident siblings underwent digital slit lamp photography and were administered a questionnaire to assess risk factors for cataract including: age, gender, lifetime sun exposure, smoking and diabetes history, and use of alcohol and medications such as estrogens and steroids. In addition, blood pressure, body mass index, and serum antioxidants were measured in all participants. Lens photographs were graded by trained observers masked to the subjects' identity, using the Wilmer Cataract Grading System. The odds ratio for siblings for affectedness with nuclear cataract and the sibling correlation of nuclear cataract grade, after adjusting for covariates, were estimated with generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Among 307 probands (mean age, 77.6 +/- 4.5 years) and 434 full siblings (mean age, 72.4 +/- 7.4 years), the average sibship size was 2.7 per family. After adjustment for covariates, the probability of development of nuclear cataract was significantly increased (odds ratio [OR] = 2.07, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-3.30) among individuals with a sibling with nuclear cataract (nuclear grade > or = 3.0). The final fitted model indicated a magnitude of heritability for nuclear cataract of 35.6% (95% CI: 21.0%-50.3%) after adjustment for the covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Findings in this study are consistent with a genetic effect for age-related nuclear cataract, a common and clinically significant form of lens opacity.

Cortical, but not posterior subcapsular, cataract shows significant familial aggregation in an older population after adjustment for possible shared environmental factors.

PURPOSE:

To quantify the risk for age-related cortical cataract and posterior subcapsular cataract (PSC) associated with having an affected sibling after adjusting for known environmental and personal risk factors.

DESIGN:

Sibling cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS:

Participants in the ongoing Salisbury Eye Evaluation (SEE) study (n = 321; mean age, 78.1+/-4.2 years) and their locally resident siblings (n = 453; mean age, 72.6+/-7.4 years) were recruited at the time of Rounds 3 and 4 of the SEE study. INTERVENTION/TESTING METHODS: Retroillumination photographs of the lens were graded for the presence of cortical cataract and PSC with the Wilmer grading system. The residual correlation between siblings' cataract grades was estimated after adjustment for a number of factors (age; gender; race; lifetime exposure to ultraviolet-B light; cigarette, alcohol, estrogen, and steroid use; serum antioxidants; history of diabetes; blood pressure; and body mass index) suspected to be associated with the presence of cataract.

RESULTS:

The average sibship size was 2.7 per family. Multivariate analysis revealed the magnitude of heritability (h(2)) for cortical cataract to be 24% (95% CI, 6%-42%), whereas that for PSC was not statistically significant (h(2) 4%; 95% CI, 0%-11%) after adjustment for the covariates. The model revealed that increasing age, female gender, a history of diabetes, and black race increased the odds of cortical cataract, whereas higher levels of provitamin A were protective. A history of diabetes and steroid use increased the odds for PSC.

CONCLUSIONS:

This study is consistent with a significant genetic effect for age-related cortical cataract but not PSC.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.

Methods: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.
Findings: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women.

Interpretation: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities, forecasting and hedging strategies

The cyclical properties of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for forecasting performance are investigated. We find that changes in the BDI can lead to permanent shocks to trade of major exporting economies. In our forecasting exercise, we show that commodities and trigonometric regression can lead to improved predictions and then use our forecasting results to perform an investment exercise and to show how they can be used for improved risk management in the freight sector.

Selective Multi-Carrier Index Keying OFDM: Error Propagation Rate with Moment Generating Function

We propose a new selective multi-carrier index keying in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems that opportunistically modulate both a small subset of sub-carriers and their indices. Particularly, we investigate the performance enhancement in two cases of error propagation sensitive and compromised deviceto-device (D2D) communications. For the performance evaluation, we focus on analyzing the error propagation probability (EPP) introducing the exact and upper bound expressions on the detection error probability, in the presence of both imperfect and perfect detection of active multi-carrier indices. The average EPP results in closedform are generalized for various fading distribution using the moment generating function, and our numerical results clearly show that the proposed approach is desirable for reliable and energy-efficient D2D applications.

Fetal umbilical artery Doppler pulsatility index and childhood neurocognitive outcome at 12 years

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether an elevated fetal umbilical artery Doppler (UAD) pulsatility index (PI) at 28 weeks' gestation, in the absence of fetal growth restriction (FGR) and prematurity, is associated with adverse neurocognitive outcome in children aged 12 years.

METHODS: Prospective cohort study, comparing children with a normal fetal UAD PI (<90th centile) (n=110) and those with an elevated PI (≥90th centile) (n=40). UAD was performed at 28, 32 and 34 weeks gestation. At 12 years of age, all children were assessed under standardised conditions at Queen's University, Belfast, UK to determine cognitive and behavioural outcomes using the British Ability Score-II and Achenbach Child Behavioural Checklist Parent Rated Version under standardised conditions. Regression analysis was performed, controlling for confounders such as gender, socioeconomic status and age at assessment.

RESULTS: The mean age of follow-up was 12.4 years (±0.5 SD) with 44% of children male (n=63). When UAD was assessed at 28 weeks, the elevated fetal UAD group had lower scores in cognitive assessments of information processing and memory. Parameters included (1) recall of objects immediate verbal (p=0.002), (2) delayed verbal (p=0.008) and (3) recall of objects immediate spatial (p=0.0016). There were no significant differences between the Doppler groups at 32 or 34 weeks' gestation.

CONCLUSIONS: An elevated UAD PI at 28 weeks' gestation in the absence of FGR or prematurity is associated with lower scores of declarative memory in children aged 12 years. A potential explanation for this is an element of placental insufficiency in the presence of the appropriately grown fetus, which affects the development of the fetal hippocampus and information processing and memory long-term. These findings, however, had no impact on overall academic ability, mental processing and reasoning or overall behavioural function.