Smoking and All-cause Mortality in Older Adults: Results From the CHANCES Consortium

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is known to be a major cause of death among middle-aged adults, but evidence on its impact and the benefits of smoking cessation among older adults has remained limited. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the influence of smoking and smoking cessation on all-cause mortality in people aged ≥60 years.

METHODS: Relative mortality and mortality rate advancement periods (RAPs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards models for the population-based prospective cohort studies from Europe and the U.S. (CHANCES [Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the U.S.]), and subsequently pooled by individual participant meta-analysis. Statistical analyses were performed from June 2013 to March 2014.

RESULTS: A total of 489,056 participants aged ≥60 years at baseline from 22 population-based cohort studies were included. Overall, 99,298 deaths were recorded. Current smokers had 2-fold and former smokers had 1.3-fold increased mortality compared with never smokers. These increases in mortality translated to RAPs of 6.4 (95% CI=4.8, 7.9) and 2.4 (95% CI=1.5, 3.4) years, respectively. A clear positive dose-response relationship was observed between number of currently smoked cigarettes and mortality. For former smokers, excess mortality and RAPs decreased with time since cessation, with RAPs of 3.9 (95% CI=3.0, 4.7), 2.7 (95% CI=1.8, 3.6), and 0.7 (95% CI=0.2, 1.1) for those who had quit <10, 10 to 19, and ≥20 years ago, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Smoking remains as a strong risk factor for premature mortality in older individuals and cessation remains beneficial even at advanced ages. Efforts to support smoking abstinence at all ages should be a public health priority.

Modulation of intracellular calcium homeostasis blocks autophagosome formation

Cellular stress responses often involve elevation of cytosolic calcium levels, and this has been suggested to stimulate autophagy. Here, however, we demonstrated that agents that alter intracellular calcium ion homeostasis and induce ER stress-the calcium ionophore A23187 and the sarco/endoplasmic reticulum Ca (2+)-ATPase inhibitor thapsigargin (TG)-potently inhibit autophagy. This anti-autophagic effect occurred under both nutrient-rich and amino acid starvation conditions, and was reflected by a strong reduction in autophagic degradation of long-lived proteins. Furthermore, we found that the calcium-modulating agents inhibited autophagosome biogenesis at a step after the acquisition of WIPI1, but prior to the closure of the autophagosome. The latter was evident from the virtually complete inability of A23187- or TG-treated cells to sequester cytosolic lactate dehydrogenase. Moreover, we observed a decrease in both the number and size of starvation-induced EGFP-LC3 puncta as well as reduced numbers of mRFP-LC3 puncta in a tandem fluorescent mRFP-EGFP-LC3 cell line. The anti-autophagic effect of A23187 and TG was independent of ER stress, as chemical or siRNA-mediated inhibition of the unfolded protein response did not alter the ability of the calcium modulators to block autophagy. Finally, and remarkably, we found that the anti-autophagic activity of the calcium modulators did not require sustained or bulk changes in cytosolic calcium levels. In conclusion, we propose that local perturbations in intracellular calcium levels can exert inhibitory effects on autophagy at the stage of autophagosome expansion and closure.

Genetically Determined Height and Coronary Artery Disease

Background: The nature and underlying mechanisms of an inverse association between adult height and the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) are unclear. <br/>Methods: We used a genetic approach to investigate the association between height and CAD, using 180 height-associated genetic variants. We tested the association between a change in genetically determined height of 1 SD (6.5 cm) with the risk of CAD in 65,066 cases and 128,383 controls. Using individual-level genotype data from 18,249 persons, we also examined the risk of CAD associated with the presence of various numbers of height-associated alleles. To identify putative mechanisms, we analyzed whether genetically determined height was associated with known cardiovascular risk factors and performed a pathway analysis of the height-associated genes. <br/>Results: We observed a relative increase of 13.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.4 to 22.1; P<0.001) in the risk of CAD per 1-SD decrease in genetically determined height. There was a graded relationship between the presence of an increased number of height-raising variants and a reduced risk of CAD (odds ratio for height quartile 4 versus quartile 1, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.84; P<0.001). Of the 12 risk factors that we studied, we observed significant associations only with levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides (accounting for approximately 30% of the association). We identified several overlapping pathways involving genes associated with both development and atherosclerosis. <br/>Conclusions: There is a primary association between a genetically determined shorter height and an increased risk of CAD, a link that is partly explained by the association between shorter height and an adverse lipid profile. Shared biologic processes that determine achieved height and the development of atherosclerosis may explain some of the association. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.)

Adiposity as a cause of cardiovascular disease: a Mendelian randomization study

Background: Adiposity, as indicated by body mass index (BMI), has been associated with risk of cardiovascular diseases in epidemiological studies. We aimed to investigate if these associations are causal, using Mendelian randomization (MR) methods.<br/><br/>Methods: The associations of BMI with cardiovascular outcomes [coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure and ischaemic stroke], and associations of a genetic score (32 BMI single nucleotide polymorphisms) with BMI and cardiovascular outcomes were examined in up to 22 193 individuals with 3062 incident cardiovascular events from nine prospective follow-up studies within the ENGAGE consortium. We used random-effects meta-analysis in an MR framework to provide causal estimates of the effect of adiposity on cardiovascular outcomes.<br/><br/>Results: There was a strong association between BMI and incident CHD (HR = 1.20 per SD-increase of BMI, 95% CI, 1.12–1.28, P = 1.9·10−7), heart failure (HR = 1.47, 95% CI, 1.35–1.60, P = 9·10−19) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 1.15, 95% CI, 1.06–1.24, P = 0.0008) in observational analyses. The genetic score was robustly associated with BMI (β = 0.030 SD-increase of BMI per additional allele, 95% CI, 0.028–0.033, P = 3·10−107). Analyses indicated a causal effect of adiposity on development of heart failure (HR = 1.93 per SD-increase of BMI, 95% CI, 1.12–3.30, P = 0.017) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 1.83, 95% CI, 1.05–3.20, P = 0.034). Additional cross-sectional analyses using both ENGAGE and CARDIoGRAMplusC4D data showed a causal effect of adiposity on CHD.<br/><br/>Conclusions: Using MR methods, we provide support for the hypothesis that adiposity causes CHD, heart failure and, previously not demonstrated, ischaemic stroke.

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

Climate model projections suggestwidespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era.<br/>The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries<br/>reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.

Gene-associated markers provide tools for tackling illegal fishing and false eco-certification

Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated fishing has had a major role in the overexploitation of global fish populations. In response, international regulations have been imposed and many fisheries have been 'eco-certified' by consumer organizations, but methods for independent control of catch certificates and eco-labels are urgently needed. Here we show that, by using gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms, individual marine fish can be assigned back to population of origin with unprecedented high levels of precision. By applying high differentiation single nucleotide polymorphism assays, in four commercial marine fish, on a pan-European scale, we find 93-100% of individuals could be correctly assigned to origin in policy-driven case studies. We show how case-targeted single nucleotide polymorphism assays can be created and forensically validated, using a centrally maintained and publicly available database. Our results demonstrate how application of gene-associated markers will likely revolutionize origin assignment and become highly valuable tools for fighting illegal fishing and mislabelling worldwide.

Development of a potent and selective cell penetrant Legumain inhibitor

This Letter describes the continued SAR exploration of small molecule Legumain inhibitors with the aim of developing a potent and selective in vitro tool compound. Work continued in this Letter explores the use of alternative P2-P3 linker units and the P3 group SAR which led to the identification of 10t, a potent, selective and cellularly active Legumain inhibitor. We also demonstrate that 10t has activity in both cancer cell viability and colony formation assays.

Effect of major lifestyle risk factors, independent and jointly, on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease: results from the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of "disease-free" years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is "never too late".

Predictive Value of Depressive Symptoms for All-Cause Mortality: Findings From the PRIME Belfast Study Examining the Role of Inflammation and Cardiovascular Risk Markers

OBJECTIVES: To improve understanding about the potential underlying biological mechanisms in the link between depression and all-cause mortality and to investigate the role that inflammatory and other cardiovascular risk factors may play in the relationship between depressive symptoms and mortality.

METHODS: Depression and blood-based biological markers were assessed in the Belfast PRIME prospective cohort study (N = 2389 men, aged 50-59 years) in which participants were followed up for 18 years. Depression was measured using the 10-item Welsh Pure Depression Inventory. Inflammation markers (C-reactive protein [CRP], neopterin, interleukin [IL]-1 receptor antagonist [IL-1Ra], and IL-18) and cardiovascular-specific risk factors (N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-adrenomedullin, C-terminal pro-endothelin-1 [CT-proET]) were obtained at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to examine the association between depression and biological measures in relation to all-cause mortality and explore the mediating effects.

RESULTS: During follow-up, 418 participants died. Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with higher levels of CRP, IL-1Ra, and CT-proET. After adjustment for socioeconomic and life-style risk factors, depressive symptoms were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.10 per scale unit, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.16). This association was partly explained by CRP (7.3%) suggesting a minimal mediation effect. IL-1Ra, N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-adrenomedullin, and CT-proET contributed marginally to the association between depression and subsequent mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory and cardiovascular risk markers are associated with depression and with increased mortality. However, depression and biological measures show additive effects rather than a pattern of meditation of biological factors in the association between depression and mortality.

Comprehensive molecular pathology analysis of small bowel adenocarcinoma reveals novel targets with potential for clinical utility

Small bowel accounts for only 0.5% of cancer cases in the US but incidence rates have been rising at 2.4% per year over the past decade. One-third of these are adenocarcinomas but little is known about their molecular pathology and no molecular markers are available for clinical use. Using a retrospective 28 patient matched normal-tumor cohort, next-generation sequencing, gene expression arrays and CpG methylation arrays were used for molecular profiling. Next-generation sequencing identified novel mutations in IDH1, CDH1, KIT, FGFR2, FLT3, NPM1, PTEN, MET, AKT1, RET, NOTCH1 and ERBB4. Array data revealed 17% of CpGs and 5% of RNA transcripts assayed to be differentially methylated and expressed respectively (p < 0.01). Merging gene expression and DNA methylation data revealed CHN2 as consistently hypermethylated and downregulated in this disease (Spearman -0.71, p < 0.001). Mutations in TP53 which were found in more than half of the cohort (15/28) and Kazald1 hypomethylation were both were indicative of poor survival (p = 0.03, HR = 3.2 and p = 0.01, HR = 4.9 respectively). By integrating high-throughput mutational, gene expression and DNA methylation data, this study reveals for the first time the distinct molecular profile of small bowel adenocarcinoma and highlights potential clinically exploitable markers.

Epidemiology, Patterns of Care, and Mortality for Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Intensive Care Units in 50 Countries

Importance Limited information exists about the epidemiology, recognition, management, and outcomes of patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).<br/><br/>Objectives To evaluate intensive care unit (ICU) incidence and outcome of ARDS and to assess clinician recognition, ventilation management, and use of adjuncts—for example prone positioning—in routine clinical practice for patients fulfilling the ARDS Berlin Definition.<br/><br/>Design, Setting, and Participants The Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure (LUNG SAFE) was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients undergoing invasive or noninvasive ventilation, conducted during 4 consecutive weeks in the winter of 2014 in a convenience sample of 459 ICUs from 50 countries across 5 continents.<br/><br/>Exposures Acute respiratory distress syndrome.<br/><br/>Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was ICU incidence of ARDS. Secondary outcomes included assessment of clinician recognition of ARDS, the application of ventilatory management, the use of adjunctive interventions in routine clinical practice, and clinical outcomes from ARDS.<br/><br/>Results Of 29 144 patients admitted to participating ICUs, 3022 (10.4%) fulfilled ARDS criteria. Of these, 2377 patients developed ARDS in the first 48 hours and whose respiratory failure was managed with invasive mechanical ventilation. The period prevalence of mild ARDS was 30.0% (95% CI, 28.2%-31.9%); of moderate ARDS, 46.6% (95% CI, 44.5%-48.6%); and of severe ARDS, 23.4% (95% CI, 21.7%-25.2%). ARDS represented 0.42 cases per ICU bed over 4 weeks and represented 10.4% (95% CI, 10.0%-10.7%) of ICU admissions and 23.4% of patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Clinical recognition of ARDS ranged from 51.3% (95% CI, 47.5%-55.0%) in mild to 78.5% (95% CI, 74.8%-81.8%) in severe ARDS. Less than two-thirds of patients with ARDS received a tidal volume 8 of mL/kg or less of predicted body weight. Plateau pressure was measured in 40.1% (95% CI, 38.2-42.1), whereas 82.6% (95% CI, 81.0%-84.1%) received a positive end-expository pressure (PEEP) of less than 12 cm H2O. Prone positioning was used in 16.3% (95% CI, 13.7%-19.2%) of patients with severe ARDS. Clinician recognition of ARDS was associated with higher PEEP, greater use of neuromuscular blockade, and prone positioning. Hospital mortality was 34.9% (95% CI, 31.4%-38.5%) for those with mild, 40.3% (95% CI, 37.4%-43.3%) for those with moderate, and 46.1% (95% CI, 41.9%-50.4%) for those with severe ARDS.<br/><br/>Conclusions and Relevance Among ICUs in 50 countries, the period prevalence of ARDS was 10.4% of ICU admissions. This syndrome appeared to be underrecognized and undertreated and associated with a high mortality rate. These findings indicate the potential for improvement in the management of patients with ARDS.

Do Gifts Increase Consent to Home-based HIV Testing? A Difference-in-differences Study in Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

<b>Background b>Despite the importance of HIV testing for controlling the HIV epidemic, testing rates remain low. Efforts to scale-up testing coverage and frequency in hard-to-reach and at-risk populations commonly focus on home-based HIV testing. This study evaluates the effect of a gift (a food voucher for families, worth US$ 5) on consent rates for home-based HIV testing.<br/><b>Methodsb> We use data on 18,478 men and women who participated in the 2009 and 2010 population-based HIV surveillance carried out by the Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Our quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach controls for unobserved confounding in estimating the causal effect of the intervention on HIV testing consent rates.<br/><b>Resultsb> Allocation of the gift to a family in 2010 increased the probability of family members consenting to test in 2010 by 25 percentage points (95% CI 21-30; p<0.001). The intervention effect persisted, slightly attenuated, in the year following the intervention (2011), further increasing intervention value for money. <br/><b>Conclusionsb> In HIV hyperendemic settings a gift can be highly effective at increasing consent rates for home-based HIV testing. Given the importance of HIV testing for treatment uptake and individual health, as well as for HIV treatment-and-prevention strategies and for monitoring the population impact of the HIV response, gifts should be considered as a supportive intervention for HIV testing initiatives where consent rates have been low.

Quantification of the smoking-associated cancer risk with rate advancement periods: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the most important individual risk factor for many cancer sites but its association with breast and prostate cancer is not entirely clear. Rate advancement periods (RAPs) may enhance communication of smoking related risk to the general population. Thus, we estimated RAPs for the association of smoking exposure (smoking status, time since smoking cessation, smoking intensity, and duration) with total and site-specific (lung, breast, colorectal, prostate, gastric, head and neck, and pancreatic) cancer incidence and mortality.

METHODS: This is a meta-analysis of 19 population-based prospective cohort studies with individual participant data for 897,021 European and American adults. For each cohort we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of smoking exposure with cancer outcomes using Cox regression adjusted for a common set of the most important potential confounding variables. RAPs (in years) were calculated as the ratio of the logarithms of the HRs for a given smoking exposure variable and age. Meta-analyses were employed to summarize cohort-specific HRs and RAPs.

RESULTS: Overall, 140,205 subjects had a first incident cancer, and 53,164 died from cancer, during an average follow-up of 12 years. Current smoking advanced the overall risk of developing and dying from cancer by eight and ten years, respectively, compared with never smokers. The greatest advancements in cancer risk and mortality were seen for lung cancer and the least for breast cancer. Smoking cessation was statistically significantly associated with delays in the risk of cancer development and mortality compared with continued smoking.

CONCLUSIONS: This investigation shows that smoking, even among older adults, considerably advances, and cessation delays, the risk of developing and dying from cancer. These findings may be helpful in more effectively communicating the harmful effects of smoking and the beneficial effect of smoking cessation.

Burden of Cancer in a Large Consortium of Prospective Cohorts in Europe

BACKGROUND: Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) are an indicator of mortality, morbidity, and disability. We calculated DALYs for cancer in middle-aged and older adults participating in the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES) consortium.

METHODS: A total of 90 199 participants from five European cohorts with 10 455 incident cancers and 4399 deaths were included in this study. DALYs were calculated as the sum of the years of life lost because of premature mortality (YLLs) and the years lost because of disability (YLDs). Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were also estimated for five cancer risk factors, ie, smoking, adiposity, physical inactivity, alcohol intake, and type II diabetes.

RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 12 years, the total number of DALYs lost from cancer was 34 474 (382 per 1000 individuals) with a similar distribution by sex. Lung cancer was responsible for the largest number of lost DALYs (22.9%), followed by colorectal (15.3%), prostate (10.2%), and breast cancer (8.7%). Mortality (81.6% of DALYs) predominated over disability. Ever cigarette smoking was the risk factor responsible for the greatest total cancer burden (24.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 22.2% to 26.0%), followed by physical inactivity (4.9%, 95% CI = 0.8% to 8.1%) and adiposity (1.8%, 95% CI = 0.2% to 2.8%).

CONCLUSIONS: DALYs lost from cancer were substantial in this large European sample of middle-aged and older adults. Even if the burden of disease because of cancer is predominantly caused by mortality, some cancers have sizeable consequences for disability. Smoking remained the predominant risk factor for total cancer burden.