Varieties of Economic Crisis, Varieties of Ideational Change: How and Why Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Regulation Differ

One of the principal tasks facing post-crash academic political economy is to analyse patterns of ideational change and the conditions that produce such change. What has been missing from the existing literature on ideational change at times of crises however, is a sense of how processes of persuasive struggle, and how the success of those ‘norm entrepreneurs’ arguing for ideational change is shaped by two contextual variables: the most immediate material symptoms and problems that a crisis displays (the variety of crisis); and the institutional character of the policy subsystem that agents have to operate within to affect change. Introducing these two variables into our accounts of persuasive struggle and ideational change enables us to deepen our understanding of the dynamics of ideational change at times of crisis. The article identifies that a quite rapid and radical intellectual change has been evident in the field of financial regulation in the form of an embrace of a macroprudential frame. In contrast in the field of macroeconomic policy - both monetary and fiscal policy, many pre-crash beliefs remain prominent, there is evidence of ideational stickiness and inertia, and despite some policy experimentation, overarching policy frameworks and their rationales have not been overhauled. The article applies Peter Hall’s framework of three orders of policy changes to help illuminate and explain the variation in patterns of change in the fields of financial regulation and macroeconomic policy since the financial crash of 2008. The different patterns of ideational change in macroeconomic policy and financial regulation in the post-crash period can be explained by timing and variety of crisis; sequencing of policy change; and institutional political differences between micro policy sub systems and macro policy systems.

Bandwidth selection by cross-validation for forecasting long memory financial time series

The paper addresses the issue of choice of bandwidth in the application of semiparametric estimation of the long memory parameter in a univariate time series process. The focus is on the properties of forecasts from the long memory model. A variety of cross-validation methods based on out of sample forecasting properties are proposed. These procedures are used for the choice of bandwidth and subsequent model selection. Simulation evidence is presented that demonstrates the advantage of the proposed new methodology.

Simvastatin in the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

Background

Studies in animals and in vitro and phase 2 studies in humans suggest that statins may be beneficial in the treatment of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). This study tested the hypothesis that treatment with simvastatin would improve clinical outcomes in patients with ARDS.

Methods

In this multicenter, double-blind clinical trial, we randomly assigned (in a 1:1 ratio) patients with an onset of ARDS within the previous 48 hours to receive enteral simvastatin at a dose of 80 mg or placebo once daily for a maximum of 28 days. The primary outcome was the number of ventilator-free days to day 28. Secondary outcomes included the number of days free of nonpulmonary organ failure to day 28, mortality at 28 days, and safety.

Results

The study recruited 540 patients, with 259 patients assigned to simvastatin and 281 to placebo. The groups were well matched with respect to demographic and baseline physiological variables. There was no significant difference between the study groups in the mean (±SD) number of ventilator-free days (12.6±9.9 with simvastatin and 11.5±10.4 with placebo, P=0.21) or days free of nonpulmonary organ failure (19.4±11.1 and 17.8±11.7, respectively; P=0.11) or in mortality at 28 days (22.0% and 26.8%, respectively; P=0.23). There was no significant difference between the two groups in the incidence of serious adverse events related to the study drug.

Conclusions

Simvastatin therapy, although safe and associated with minimal adverse effects, did not improve clinical outcomes in patients with ARDS. (Funded by the U.K. National Institute for Health Research Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation Programme and others; HARP-2 Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN88244364.)

Acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by Mycoplasma pneumoniae diagnosed by polymerase chain reaction

Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) is a common pathogen in cases of atypical pneumonia. Most individuals with Mycoplasma pneumonia run a benign course, with non-specific symptoms of malaise, fever and non-productive cough that usually resolve with no long-term sequelae. Acute lung injury is not commonly seen in Mycoplasma pneumonia. We report a case of acute respiratory distress syndrome cause by M. pneumoniae diagnosed by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).

On the Viability of Microservers for Financial Analytics

Energy consumption and total cost of ownership are daunting challenges for Datacenters, because they scale disproportionately with performance. Datacenters running financial analytics may incur extremely high operational costs in order to meet performance and latency requirements of their hosted applications. Recently, ARM-based microservers have emerged as a viable alternative to high-end servers, promising scalable performance via scale-out approaches and low energy consumption. In this paper, we investigate the viability of ARM-based microservers for option pricing, using the Monte Carlo and Binomial Tree kernels. We compare an ARM-based microserver against a state-of-the-art x86 server. We define application-related but platform-independent energy and performance metrics to compare those platforms fairly in the context of datacenters for financial analytics and give insight on the particular requirements of option pricing. Our experiments show that through scaling out energyefficient compute nodes within a 2U rack-mounted unit, an ARM-based microserver consumes as little as about 60% of the energy per option pricing compared to an x86 server, despite having significantly slower cores. We also find that the ARM microserver scales enough to meet a high fraction of market throughput demand, while consuming up to 30% less energy than an Intel server

Family-based associations in measures of psychological distress and quality of life in a cardiac screening clinic for inheritable cardiac diseases: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Family-based cardiac screening programmes for persons at risk for genetic cardiac diseases are now recommended. However, the psychological wellbeing and health related quality of life (QoL) of such screened patients is poorly understood, especially in younger patients. We sought to examine wellbeing and QoL in a representative group of adults aged 16 and over in a dedicated family cardiac screening clinic.

METHODS: Prospective survey of consecutive consenting patients attending a cardiac screening clinic, over a 12 month period. Data were collected using two health measurement tools: the Short Form 12 (version 2) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), along with baseline demographic and screening visit-related data. The HADS and SF-12v.2 outcomes were compared by age group. Associations with a higher HADS score were examined using logistic regression, with multi-level modelling used to account for the family-based structure of the data.

RESULTS: There was a study response rate of 86.6%, with n=334 patients providing valid HADS data (valid response rate 79.5%), and data on n=316 retained for analysis. One-fifth of patients were aged under 25 (n=61). Younger patients were less likely than older to describe significant depression on their HADS scale (p<0.0001), although there were overall no difference between the prevalence of a significant HADS score between the younger and older age groups (18.0% vs 20.0%, p=0.73). Significant positive associates of a higher HADS score were having lower educational attainment, being single or separated, and being closely related to the family proband. Between-family variance in anxiety and depression scores was greater than within-family variance.

CONCLUSIONS: High levels of anxiety were seen amongst patients attending a family-based cardiac screening clinic.Younger patients also had high rates of clinically significant anxiety. Higher levels of anxiety and depression tends to run in families, and this has implications for family screening and intervention programmes.

Beyond Financialisation? Transformative Strategies for More Sustainable Financial Markets in the European Union

The global financial crisis has led many regulators and lawmakers to a rethinking about current versus optimum financial market structures and activities that include a variety and even radical ideas about delevaraging and downsizing finance. This paper focuses on the flaws and shortcomings of regulatory reforms of finance and on the necessity of and scope for more radical transformative strategies. With 'crisis economics' back, the most developed countries, including the EU member states, are still on the edge of disaster and confronted with systemic risk. Changes in financial regulation adopted in the aftermath of the financial meltdown have not been radical enough to transform the overall system of finance-driven capitalism towards a more sustainable system with a more embedded finance. The paper discusses financialisation in order to understand the development trends in finance over the past decades and examines various theories to describe the typical trends and patterns in financial regulation. By focusing on a limited number of regulatory reforms in the European Union, the limitations of current reforms and the need for additional transformative strategies necessary to overcome the finance-driven accumulation regime are explored. Finally, the regulatory space for such transformative strategies and for taming finance in times of crisis, austerity, and increased public protest potential is analysed.

Docking the value of pigmeat? Prevalence and financial implications of welfare lesions in Irish slaughter pigs.

Expansion of the meat inspection process to incorporate animal-based welfare measurements could contribute towards significant improvements in pig (Sus scrofa domesticus) welfare and farm profitability. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of different welfare-related lesions on the carcase and their relationship with carcase condemnations (CC) and carcase weight (CW). The financial implications of losses associated with CC and CW reductions related to the welfare lesions were also estimated. Data on tail lesions, loin bruising and bursitis, CW and condemnation/trimming outcome (and associated weights) were collected for 3,537slaughter pigs (mean [± SEM] carcase weight: 79.2 [± 8.82] kg). Overall, 72.5% of pigs had detectable tail lesions, whilst 16.0 and 44.0% were affected by severe loin bruising and hind limb bursitis, respectively. There were 2.5% of study carcases condemned and a further 3.3% were trimmed. The primary cause of CC was abscessation. While tail lesion severity did not increase the risk of abscessation, it was significantly associated with CC. Male pigs had a higher risk of tail lesions and of CC. The financial loss to producers associated with CC and trimmings was estimated at €1.10 per study pig. CW was reduced by up to 12 kg in cases of severe tail lesions. However, even mild lesions were associated with a significant reduction in CW of 1.2 kg. The value of the loss in potential CW associated with tail lesions was €0.59 per study pig. Combined with losses attributable to CC and trimmings this represented a loss of 43% of the profit margin per pig, at the time of the study, attributable to tail biting. These findings illustrate the magnitude of the impact of tail biting on pig welfare and on profitability of the pig industry. They also emphasise the potential contribution that the inclusion of welfare parameters at meat inspection could make to pig producers in informing herd health and welfare management plans.

Financial reintegration assistance for veterans of the Irish revolution (1916-23): post-conflict policy in an historical setting

In the aftermath of the Irish revolution and Civil War the governments of independent Ireland introduced various compensation schemes to provide financial reintegration assistance to revolutionary veterans. This would be recognised today as part of a programme for DDR. This paper will examine various service and disability pensions paid to veterans in the context of literature on post-conflict reintegration. It will examine various challenges to reintegration in an effort to analyse the success of revolutionary compensation as a post-conflict reintegration mechanism in independent Ireland after 1922.

Aspirin therapy in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is associated with reduced intensive care unit mortality: a prospective analysis

INTRODUCTION: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common clinical syndrome with high mortality and long-term morbidity. To date there is no effective pharmacological therapy. Aspirin therapy has recently been shown to reduce the risk of developing ARDS, but the effect of aspirin on established ARDS is unknown.

METHODS: In a single large regional medical and surgical ICU between December 2010 and July 2012, all patients with ARDS were prospectively identified and demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were recorded retrospectively. Aspirin usage, both pre-hospital and during intensive care unit (ICU) stay, was included. The primary outcome was ICU mortality. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess the impact of these variables on ICU mortality.

RESULTS: In total, 202 patients with ARDS were included; 56 (28%) of these received aspirin either pre-hospital, in the ICU, or both. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, aspirin therapy, given either before or during hospital stay, was associated with a reduction in ICU mortality (odds ratio (OR) 0.38 (0.15 to 0.96) P = 0.04). Additional factors that predicted ICU mortality for patients with ARDS were vasopressor use (OR 2.09 (1.05 to 4.18) P = 0.04) and APACHE II score (OR 1.07 (1.02 to 1.13) P = 0.01). There was no effect upon ICU length of stay or hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION: Aspirin therapy was associated with a reduced risk of ICU mortality. These data are the first to demonstrate a potential protective role for aspirin in patients with ARDS. Clinical trials to evaluate the role of aspirin as a pharmacological intervention for ARDS are needed.

Unexpected Role for Adaptive αβTh17 Cells in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a devastating disorder characterized by increased alveolar permeability with no effective treatment beyond supportive care. Current mechanisms underlying ARDS focus on alveolar endothelial and epithelial injury caused by products of innate immune cells and platelets. However, the role of adaptive immune cells in ARDS remains largely unknown. In this study, we report that expansion of Ag-specific αβTh17 cells contributes to ARDS by local secretion of IL-17A, which in turn directly increases alveolar epithelial permeability. Mice with a highly restrictive defect in Ag-specific αβTh17 cells were protected from experimental ARDS induced by a single dose of endotracheal LPS. Loss of IL-17 receptor C or Ab blockade of IL-17A was similarly protective, further suggesting that IL-17A released by these cells was responsible for this effect. LPS induced a rapid and specific clonal expansion of αβTh17 cells in the lung, as determined by deep sequencing of the hypervariable CD3RβVJ region of the TCR. Our findings could be relevant to ARDS in humans, because we found significant elevation of IL-17A in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from patients with ARDS, and rIL-17A directly increased permeability across cultured human alveolar epithelial monolayers. These results reveal a previously unexpected role for adaptive immune responses that increase alveolar permeability in ARDS and suggest that αβTh17 cells and IL-17A could be novel therapeutic targets for this currently untreatable disease.

Mesenchymal stromal cells for treatment of the acute respiratory distress syndrome: The beginning of the story

In spite of decades of research, the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) continues to have an unacceptably high mortality and morbidity. Mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) present a promising candidate for the treatment of this condition and have demonstrated benefit in preclinical models. MSCs, which are a topic of growing interest in many inflammatory disorders, have already progressed to early phase clinical trials in ARDS. While a number of their mechanisms of effect have been elucidated, a better understanding of the complex actions of these cells may pave the way for MSC modifications, which might enable more effective translation into clinical practice.