Forecasting Death Rates Using Exogenous Determinants

Mortality models used for forecasting are predominantly based on the statistical properties of time series and do not generally incorporate an understanding of the forces driving secular trends. This paper addresses three research questions: Can the factors found in stochastic mortality-forecasting models be associated with real-world trends in health-related variables? Does inclusion of health-related factors in models improve forecasts? Do resulting models give better forecasts than existing stochastic mortality models? We consider whether the space spanned by the latent factor structure in mortality data can be adequately described by developments in gross domestic product, health expenditure and lifestyle-related risk factors using statistical techniques developed in macroeconomics and finance. These covariates are then shown to improve forecasts when incorporated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Results are comparable or better than benchmark stochastic mortality models.

A Matter of Life and Death; The House of Osiris; The High Window; The Doctors

A series of individual poems selected for a special contemporary Irish edition of the American journal Atlanta Review.

Efficient Drug Delivery and Induction of Apoptosis in Colorectal Tumors Using a Death Receptor 5-Targeted Nanomedicine

Death Receptor 5 (DR5) is a pro-apoptotic cell-surface receptor that is a potential therapeutic target in cancer. Despite the potency of DR5-targeting agents in preclinical models, the translation of these effects into the clinic remains disappointing. Herein, we report an alternative approach to exploiting DR5 tumor expression using antibody-targeted, chemotherapy-loaded nanoparticles. We describe the development of an optimized polymer-based nanotherapeutic incorporating both a functionalized polyethylene glycol (PEG) layer and targeting antibodies to limit premature phagocytic clearance whilst enabling targeting of DR5-expressing tumor cells. Using the HCT116 colorectal cancer model, we show that following binding to DR5, the nanoparticles activate caspase 8, enhancing the anti-tumor activity of the camptothecin payload both in vitro and in vivo. Importantly, the combination of nanoparticle-induced DR5 clustering with camptothecin delivery overcomes resistance to DR5-induced apoptosis caused by loss of BAX or overexpression of anti-apoptotic FLIP. This novel approach may improve the clinical activity of DR5-targeted therapeutics while increasing tumor-specific delivery of systemically toxic chemotherapeutics.Molecular Therapy (2014); doi:10.1038/mt.2014.137.

Agency Termination in Ireland: Culls and bonfires, or life after death?

The termination of state agencies has been a prominent aspect of administrative 'rationalization' programmes arising from the Global Financial Crisis. In this article, the frequency and type of agency terminations that have occurred in Ireland post-2008 are examined in longitudinal perspective. Following a consideration of agency types, the logic of agency rationalization is explored with a focus on the different ways in which agencies are terminated. Drawing on a unique dataset of Irish state agencies over a 90-year period, the article presents evidence concerning the degree to which terminations over the 2008-11 period differ, if at all, from those that have occurred previously. In concluding, the article proposes that rather than witnessing agency 'culls' and 'bonfires', there is 'life after death' for agencies and their work.

Urban planning after the Black Death: townscape transformations in later-medieval England (1350-1530)

This article offers a reconsideration of planning and development in
English towns and cities after the Black Death (1348). Conventional historical
accounts have stressed the occurrence of urban ‘decay’ in the later fourteenth and fifteenth centuries. Here, instead, a case is made that after 1350 urban planning continued to influence towns and cities in England through the transformation of their townscapes. Using the conceptual approaches of urban morphologists in particular, the article demonstrates that not only did the foundation of new towns and creation of new suburbs characterize the period 1350–1530, but so too did the redevelopment of existing urban landscapes through civic improvements and public works. These reveal evidence for the particular ‘agents of change’ involved in the planning and development process, such as surveyors, officials, patrons and architects, and also the role played by maps and drawn surveys. In this reappraisal, England’s urban experiences can be seen to have been closely connected with those instances of urban planning after the Black Death occurring elsewhere in contemporary continental Europe.

Tiotropium Respimat inhaler and the risk of death in COPD

Tiotropium delivered at a dose of 5 μg with the Respimat inhaler showed efficacy similar to that of 18 μg of tiotropium delivered with the HandiHaler inhalation device in placebo-controlled trials involving patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Although tiotropium HandiHaler was associated with reduced mortality, as compared with placebo, more deaths were reported with tiotropium Respimat than with placebo.

Substance misuse in life and death in a 2-year cohort of suicides

Background: Although substance misuse is a key risk factor in suicide, relatively little is known about the relationship between lifetime misuse and misuse at the time of suicide.

Aims: To examine the relationship between substance misuse and subsequent suicide.

Method: Linkage of coroners' reports to primary care records for 403 suicides occurring over 2 years.

Results: With alcohol misuse, 67% of the cohort had previously sought help for alcohol problems and 39% were intoxicated at the time of suicide. Regarding misuse of other substances, 54% of the cohort was tested. Almost one in four (38%) tested positive, defined as an excess of drugs over the prescribed therapeutic dosage and/or detection of illicit substances. Those tested were more likely to be young and have a history of drug misuse.

Conclusions: A deeper understanding of the relationship between substance misuse and suicide could contribute to prevention initiatives. Furthermore, standardised toxicology screening processes would avoid diminishing the importance of psychosocial factors involved in suicide as a 'cause of death'.

The Relationship Between Cumulative Adversity in Childhood and Adolescent Suicide and Accidental Death

On the whole research has concluded that most young people navigate adolescence with few difficulties, but a minority do find this stage of life challenging, and their ways of coping may have negative consequences for both themselves and others. For some the experience of adversity in earlier childhood, and the cumulative impact of multiple adversities has the potential to compromise a young person’s natural resilience. In some cases this may result in an adolescent feeling overwhelmed, and dying through suicide or other high risk behaviours. This article explores these issues with reference to eight young people who died by suicide in Northern Ireland. The article argues that young people exposed to multiple adversities in childhood require earlier, more sustained and better co-ordinated services from professionals if their psychological and emotional well-being is to be promoted.