Cancer and serious mental illness – patient, caregiver and professional perspectives: study protocol

Aim: To explore the experience of serious mental illness and cancer from the perspective of patients, significant others and healthcare professionals involved in their care. Background: Serious mental illness is associated with poorer cancer outcomes. Those suffering from this comorbidity receive fewer specialist interventions and die earlier than the general population. Prior qualitative research in this area has comprised of a single study focussing on healthcare professionals and there is little evidence regarding the experiences of patients and caregivers.Design: A qualitative exploration using approximately 36 semi-structured interviews.Methods: Semi-structured digitally recorded interviews conducted with: adults living with serious mental illness and diagnosed with cancer; those providing them with informal support and care; and healthcare professionals. Questions will focus on the experience of having cancer and serious mental illness or caring for someone with this comorbidity, experiences of healthcare and priorities for patients and carers. Framework analysis will be used. Research Ethics Committee and Trust Research & Development approval was obtained. A steering group comprising six people with experience of either cancer or mental illness provided feedback and ratified the patient information sheets and interview schedules. Discussion: There is a paucity of research addressing stakeholder perspectives on the experience of cancer and of cancer services for people with serious mental illness. Dissemination of findings will inform practice relating to the care of an often neglected population, informing better support for their significant others and the professionals involved in their care.

Re-inoculation of autoclaved soil as a non-sterile treatment for xenobiotic sorption and biodegradation studies

Autoclaved soil is commonly used for the study of xenobiotic sorption and as an abiotic control in biodegradation experiments. Autoclaving has been reported to alter soil physico-chemical and xenobiotic sorption characteristics such that comparison of autoclaved with non-autoclaved treatments in soil aging and bioavailability studies may yield misleading results. Experiments could be improved by using autoclaved soil re-inoculated with indigenous microorganisms as an additional or alternative non-sterile treatment for comparison with the sterile, autoclaved control. We examined the effect of autoclaving (3 x 1 h, 121°C, 103.5 KPa) on the physico-chemical properties of a silt loam soil (pH 7.2, 2.3% organic carbon) and the establishment of indigenous microorganisms reintroduced after autoclaving. Sterilisation by autoclaving significantly (p ≤ 0.05) decreased pH (0.6 of a unit) and increased concentrations of water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC; nontreated = 75 mg kg^-1; autoclaved = 1526 mg kg^-1). The initial first-order rate of ¹⁴C-2,4-dichloro-UL-phenol (2,4-DCP) adsorption to non-treated, autoclaved and re-inoculated soil was rapid (K₁ = 16.8-24.4 h^-1) followed by a slower linear phase (K₂). In comparison with autoclaved soil (0.038% day^-1), K₂ values were higher for re-inoculated (0.095% day^-1) and nontreated (0.181% day^-1) soil. This was attributed to a biological process. The Freundlich adsorption coefficient (K(f)) for autoclaved soil was significantly (p ≤ 0.05) higher than for re-inoculated or non-treated soil. Increased adsorption was attributed to autoclaving-induced changes to soil pH and solution composition. Glucose-induced respiration of autoclaved soil after re-inoculation was initially twice that in the non-treated control, but it decreased to control levels by day 4. This reduction corresponded to a depletion of WSOC. 2,4-DCP mineralisation experiments revealed that the inoculum of nonsterile soil (0.5 g) contained 2,4-DCP-degrading microorganisms capable of survival in autoclaved soil. The lag phase before detection of significant 2,4-DCP mineralisation was reduced (from 7 days to ≤3 days) by pre-incubation of re-inoculated soils for 7 and 14 days before 2,4-DCP addition. This was attributed to the preferential utilisation of WSOC prior to the onset of 2,4-DCP mineralisation. Cumulative ¹⁴CO₂ evolved after 21 days was significantly lower (p ≤ 0.05) from non-treated soil (25.3%) than re-inoculated soils (ca 45%). Experiments investigating sorption-biodegradation interactions of xenobiotics in soil require the physico-chemical properties of sterile and non-sterile treatments to be as comparable as possible. For fundamental studies, we suggest using re-inoculated autoclaved soil as an additional or alternative non-sterile treatment.

Efficacy and safety of ivacaftor in patients with cystic fibrosis who have an Arg117His-CFTR mutation: a double-blind, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Ivacaftor has been previously assessed in patients with cystic fibrosis with Gly551Asp-CFTR or other gating mutations. We assessed ivacaftor in patients with Arg117His-CFTR, a residual function mutation.

METHODS: We did a 24-week, placebo-controlled, double-blind, randomised clinical trial, which enrolled 69 patients with cystic fibrosis aged 6 years and older with Arg117His-CFTR and percentage of predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (% predicted FEV1) of at least 40. We randomly assigned eligible patients (1:1) to receive placebo or ivacaftor 150 mg every 12 h for 24 weeks. Randomisation was stratified by age (6-11, 12-17, and ≥18 years) and % predicted FEV1 (<70, ≥70 to ≤90, and >90). The primary outcome was the absolute change from baseline in % predicted FEV1 through week 24. Secondary outcomes included safety and changes in sweat chloride concentrations and Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire-Revised (CFQ-R) respiratory domain scores. An open-label extension enrolled 65 of the patients after washout; after 12 weeks, we did an interim analysis.

FINDINGS: After 24 weeks, the treatment difference in mean absolute change in % predicted FEV1 between ivacaftor (n=34) and placebo (n=35) was 2·1 percentage points (95% CI -1·13 to 5·35; p=0·20). Ivacaftor treatment resulted in significant treatment differences in sweat chloride (-24·0 mmol/L, 95% CI -28·01 to -19·93; p<0·0001) and CFQ-R respiratory domain (8·4, 2·17 to 14·61; p=0·009). In prespecified subgroup analyses, % predicted FEV1 significantly improved with ivacaftor in patients aged 18 years or older (treatment difference vs placebo: 5·0 percentage points, 95% CI 1·15 to 8·78; p=0·01), but not in patients aged 6-11 years (-6·3 percentage points, -11·96 to -0·71; p=0·03). In the extension study, both placebo-to-ivacaftor and ivacaftor-to-ivacaftor groups showed % predicted FEV1 improvement (absolute change from post-washout baseline at week 12: placebo-to-ivacaftor, 5·0 percentage points [p=0·0005]; ivacaftor-to-ivacaftor, 6·0 percentage points [p=0·006]). We did not identify any new safety concerns. The studies are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (the randomised, placebo-controlled study, number NCT01614457; the open-label extension study, number NCT01707290).

INTERPRETATION: Although this study did not show a significant improvement in % predicted FEV1, ivacaftor did significantly improve sweat chloride and CFQ-R respiratory domain scores and lung function in adult patients with Arg117His-CFTR, indicating that ivacaftor might benefit patients with Arg117His-CFTR who have established disease.

Finding a way: Long term care homes to support dementia

An ageing demographic has increased the number of people with dementia. Although dementia is commonly associated with memory loss, other early symptoms include difficulty with wayfinding. Dementia alters visuo-spatial perception and the processes used to interpret the physical environment. The role of the design of the physical environment for people with dementia has gained increased recognition. Despite this, design for dementia is often overlooked, focusing on issues relating to physical impairment. This paper presents the results of a PhD study and aims to examine the role of the design of the physical environment in supporting wayfinding for people with dementia living in long-term care settings in Northern Ireland. Mixed methods combined the observation of wayfinding walks and conversational style interviews to elicit perspectives and experiences of residents with dementia. The findings aim to promote well-being for those with dementia living in long-term care settings.

Breaking and Entering: Examining the role of stress and aerial exposure in predator-prey relationships between the common shore crab (Carcinus maenas) and cultivated blue mussels (Mytilus edulis).

During benthic cultivation Mytilus edulis (blue mussels) are subject to predation pressure from a number of predators including Carcinus maenas (shore crabs). This predator can be responsible for substantial losses of mussels from the fishery and a full understanding of the predator–prey relationship between M. edulis and C. maenas is required to ensure attempts that reduce predatory pressure and subsequent commercial loss are successful. Whilst much work has examined the prey–predator size relationships between C. maenas and M. edulis, far less research has investigated how stress, such as periods of extended aerial exposure, may affect these relationships. We tested whether profit in terms of calories gained by crabs consuming mussels stressed by aerial exposure for 48 h differed from that of mussels at ambient conditions and whether being stressed affected the mussel's likelihood of predation. We also tested whether the size relationship between predators and their prey differed when mussels were stressed. We found that the profitability of prey (calories gained per second of handling time) did not vary between stressed and unstressed mussels. Handling times for stressed and unstressed mussels were similar, even when crabs were presented with mussels of the maximum size that they are able to consume. Small crabs were more likely to reject a mussel of preferred size if it was unstressed, suggesting that crabs may be able to assess that these mussels would require extra effort to break into and consume. Our findings suggest that the predator–prey relationship between mussels and crabs is not altered when mussels are stressed. C. maenas remains a voracious predator and regardless of the condition of mussels laid on commercial beds there is a need to control this predator in attempt to reduce losses in the benthic fishery.

Arsenic trioxide and all-trans retinoic acid treatment for acute promyelocytic leukaemia in all risk groups (AML17): results of a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND: Acute promyelocytic leukaemia is a chemotherapy-sensitive subgroup of acute myeloid leukaemia characterised by the presence of the PML-RARA fusion transcript. The present standard of care, chemotherapy and all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), results in a high proportion of patients being cured. In this study, we compare a chemotherapy-free ATRA and arsenic trioxide treatment regimen with the standard chemotherapy-based regimen (ATRA and idarubicin) in both high-risk and low-risk patients with acute promyelocytic leukaemia.

METHODS: In the randomised, controlled, multicentre, AML17 trial, eligible patients (aged ≥16 years) with acute promyelocytic leukaemia, confirmed by the presence of the PML-RARA transcript and without significant cardiac or pulmonary comorbidities or active malignancy, and who were not pregnant or breastfeeding, were enrolled from 81 UK hospitals and randomised 1:1 to receive treatment with ATRA and arsenic trioxide or ATRA and idarubicin. ATRA was given to participants in both groups in a daily divided oral dose of 45 mg/m(2) until remission, or until day 60, and then in a 2 weeks on-2 weeks off schedule. In the ATRA and idarubicin group, idarubicin was given intravenously at 12 mg/m(2) on days 2, 4, 6, and 8 of course 1, and then at 5 mg/m(2) on days 1-4 of course 2; mitoxantrone at 10 mg/m(2) on days 1-4 of course 3, and idarubicin at 12 mg/m(2) on day 1 of the final (fourth) course. In the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group, arsenic trioxide was given intravenously at 0·3 mg/kg on days 1-5 of each course, and at 0·25 mg/kg twice weekly in weeks 2-8 of course 1 and weeks 2-4 of courses 2-5. High-risk patients (those presenting with a white blood cell count >10 × 10(9) cells per L) could receive an initial dose of the immunoconjugate gemtuzumab ozogamicin (6 mg/m(2) intravenously). Neither maintenance treatment nor CNS prophylaxis was given to patients in either group. All patients were monitored by real-time quantitative PCR. Allocation was by central computer minimisation, stratified by age, performance status, and de-novo versus secondary disease. The primary endpoint was quality of life on the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) QLQ-C30 global health status. All analyses are by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN55675535.

FINDINGS: Between May 8, 2009, and Oct 3, 2013, 235 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to ATRA and idarubicin (n=119) or ATRA and arsenic trioxide (n=116). Participants had a median age of 47 years (range 16-77; IQR 33-58) and included 57 high-risk patients. Quality of life did not differ significantly between the treatment groups (EORTC QLQ-C30 global functioning effect size 2·17 [95% CI -2·79 to 7·12; p=0·39]). Overall, 57 patients in the ATRA and idarubicin group and 40 patients in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group reported grade 3-4 toxicities. After course 1 of treatment, grade 3-4 alopecia was reported in 23 (23%) of 98 patients in the ATRA and idarubicin group versus 5 (5%) of 95 in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group, raised liver alanine transaminase in 11 (10%) of 108 versus 27 (25%) of 109, oral toxicity in 22 (19%) of 115 versus one (1%) of 109. After course 2 of treatment, grade 3-4 alopecia was reported in 25 (28%) of 89 patients in the ATRA and idarubicin group versus 2 (3%) of 77 in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group; no other toxicities reached the 10% level. Patients in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group had significantly less requirement for most aspects of supportive care than did those in the ATRA and idarubicin group.

INTERPRETATION: ATRA and arsenic trioxide is a feasible treatment in low-risk and high-risk patients with acute promyelocytic leukaemia, with a high cure rate and less relapse than, and survival not different to, ATRA and idarubicin, with a low incidence of liver toxicity. However, no improvement in quality of life was seen.

Inference in Polytrees with Sets of Probabilities

Inferences in directed acyclic graphs associated with probability intervals and sets of probabilities are NP-hard, even for polytrees. We propose: 1) an improvement on Tessem’s A/R algorithm for inferences on polytrees associated with probability intervals; 2) a new algorithm for approximate inferences based on local search; 3) branch-and-bound algorithms that combine the previous techniques. The first two algorithms produce complementary approximate solutions, while branch-and-bound procedures can generate either exact or approximate solutions. We report improvements on existing techniques for inference with probability sets and intervals, in some cases reducing computational effort by several orders of magnitude.

Epidermal growth factor receptor immunohistochemistry: new opportunities in metastatic colorectal cancer

The treatment of cancer is becoming more precise, targeting specific oncogenic drivers with targeted molecular therapies. The epidermal growth factor receptor has been found to be over-expressed in a multitude of solid tumours. Immunohistochemistry is widely used in the fields of diagnostic and personalised medicine to localise and visualise disease specific proteins. To date the clinical utility of epidermal growth factor receptor immunohistochemistry in determining monoclonal antibody efficacy has remained somewhat inconclusive. The lack of an agreed reproducible scoring criteria for epidermal growth factor receptor immunohistochemistry has, in various clinical trials yielded conflicting results as to the use of epidermal growth factor receptor immunohistochemistry assay as a companion diagnostic. This has resulted in this test being removed from the licence for the drug panitumumab and not performed in clinical practice for cetuximab. In this review we explore the reasons behind this with a particular emphasis on colorectal cancer, and to suggest a way of resolving the situation through improving the precision of epidermal growth factor receptor immunohistochemistry with quantitative image analysis of digitised images complemented with companion molecular morphological techniques such as in situ hybridisation and section based gene mutation analysis.

Development of a Novel Assay for the Detection of Active Neutrophil Elastase in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Neutrophil elastase (NE), a biomarker of infection and inflammation, correlates with the severity of several respiratory diseases including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, it’s detection and quantification in biological samples is confounded by a lack of reliable and robust methodologies. Standard assays using chromogenic or fluorogenic substrates are not specific when added to complex clinical samples containing multiple proteolytic and hydrolytic enzymes which have the ability to hydrolyse the substrate, thereby resulting in an over-estimation of the target protease. Furthermore, ELISA systems measure total protease levels which can be a mixture of latent, active and protease-inhibitor complexes. Therefore, we have developed a novel immunoassay (ProteaseTag™ Active NE Immunoassay) which is selective and specific for the capture of active NE in sputum and Bronchoalveolar Lavage (BAL) in patients with COPD. The objective of this study was to clinically validate ProteaseTag™ Active NE Ultra Immunoassay for the detection of NE in sputum from COPD patients. 20 matched sputum sol samples were collected from 10 COPD patients (M=6, F=4; 73 ± 6 years) during stable and exacerbation phases. Samples were assayed for NE activity utilising both ProteaseTag™ Active NE Ultra Immunoassay and a fluorogenic substrate-based kinetic activity assay. Both assays detected elevated levels of NE in the majority of patients (n=7) during an exacerbation (mean=217.2 μg/ml ±296.6) compared to their stable phase (mean=92.37 μg/ml ±259.8). However, statistical analysis did not show this difference to be significant (p=0.07, ProteaseTag™ Active NE Ultra Immunoassay; p=0.06 kinetic assay), most likely due to the low study number. A highly significant correlation was found between the 2 assay types (p≤0.0001, r=0.996). NE as a primary efficacy endpoint in clinical trials or as a marker of inflammation within the clinic has been hampered by the lack of a robust and simple to use assay. ProteaseTag™ Active NE Immunoassay specifically measures only active NE in clinical samples, is quick and easy to use (< 3 hours) and has no dependency on a kinetic readout. ProteaseTag™ technology is currently being transferred to a lateral flow device for use at Point of Care.

Visual symptoms and retinal straylight after laser peripheral iridotomy: the Zhongshan Angle-Closure Prevention Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of laser peripheral iridotomy (LPI) on forward-scatter of light and subjective visual symptoms and to identify LPI parameters influencing these phenomena. DESIGN: Cohort study derived from a randomized trial, using an external control group. PARTICIPANTS: Chinese subjects initially aged 50 or older and 70 years or younger with bilateral narrow angles undergoing LPI in 1 eye selected at random, and age- and gender-matched controls. METHODS: Eighteen months after laser, LPI-treated subjects underwent digital iris photography and photogrammetry to characterize the size and location of the LPI, Lens Opacity Classification System III cataract grading, and measurement of retinal straylight (C-Quant; OCULUS, Wetzlar, Germany) in the treated and untreated eyes and completed a visual symptoms questionnaire. Controls answered the questionnaire and underwent straylight measurement and (in a random one-sixth sample) cataract grading. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Retinal straylight levels and subjective visual symptoms. RESULTS: Among 230 LPI-treated subjects (121 [58.8%] with LPI totally covered by the lid, 43 [19.8%] with LPI partly covered by the lid, 53 [24.4%] with LPI uncovered by the lid), 217 (94.3%) completed all testing, as did 250 (93.3%) of 268 controls. Age, gender, and prevalence of visual symptoms did not differ between treated subjects and controls, although nuclear (P<0.01) and cortical (P = 0.03) cataract were less common among controls. Neither presenting visual acuity nor straylight score differed between the treated and untreated eyes among all treated persons, nor among those (n = 96) with LPI partially or totally uncovered. Prevalence of subjective glare did not differ significantly between participants with totally covered LPI (6.61%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.39%-12.5%), partially covered LPI (11.6%; 95% CI, 5.07%-24.5%), or totally uncovered LPI (9.43%; 95% CI, 4.10%-10.3%). In regression models, only worse cortical cataract grade (P = 0.01) was associated significantly with straylight score, and no predictors were associated with subjective glare. None of the LPI size or location parameters were associated with straylight or subjective symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggests that LPI is safe regarding measures of straylight and visual symptoms. This randomized design provides strong evidence that treatment programs for narrow angles would be unlikely to result in important medium-term visual disability.

Willingness to pay for cataract surgery in rural Southern China.

PURPOSE: To study willingness to pay for cataract surgery, and its associations, in Southern China. DESIGN: Cross-sectional willingness-to-pay interview incorporating elements of the open-ended and bidding formats. PARTICIPANTS: Three-hundred thirty-nine persons presenting for cataract screening in Yangjiang, China, with presenting visual acuity (VA) < or = 6/60 in either eye due to cataract. METHODS: Subjects underwent measurement of their VA and a willingness-to-pay interview. Age, gender, literacy, education, and annual income also were recorded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Maximum amount that the subjects would be willing to pay for cataract surgery. RESULTS: Among 325 (95.9%) subjects completing the interview, 169 (52.0%) were 70 years or older, 213 (65.5%) were women, and 217 (66.8%) had an annual income of <5000 renminbi (5000 = US 625 dollars). Eighty percent (n = 257) of participants were willing to pay something for surgery (mean, 442+/-444 renminbi [US 55 dollars+/-55]). In regression models, older subjects were willing to pay less (8 renminbi [US 1 dollar] per year of age; P = 0.01). Blind subjects were significantly more likely (odds ratio, 5.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-19.3) to pay anything for surgery, but would pay on average 255 renminbi (US 32 dollars) less (P = 0.004). Persons at the highest annual income level (>10,000 renminbi [US 1250 dollars]) would pay 50 dollars more for surgery than those at the lowest level (<5000 renminbi) (P = 0.0003). The current cost of surgery in this program is 500 renminbi (US 63 dollars). CONCLUSIONS: Sustainable programs will need to attract younger, more well-to-do persons with better vision, while still providing access to the neediest patients.

Population density and refractive error among Chinese children.

PURPOSE: China is urbanizing rapidly, and the prevalence of myopia is high. This study was conducted to identify the reasons for observed differences in the prevalence of myopia among urban versus rural Chinese children. METHODS: All children with uncorrected acuity of 6/12 or worse and a 50% random sample of children with vision better than 6/12 at all secondary schools in mixed rural-urban Liangying Township, Guangdong, underwent cycloplegic refraction, and provided data on age, gender, parental education, weekly near work and time outdoors, and urban development level of respondents' neighborhoods (12-item questionnaire). Population density of 32 villages and urban zones in Liangying was calculated from census figures (mean population density, 217 persons/km(2); range, 94-957; mean for Guangdong, 486). RESULTS: Among 5844 eligible children, 4612 (78.9%) had parental consent and completed examinations; 2957 were refracted per protocol, and 2480 (83.9%) of these had questionnaire data. Those with completed examinations were more likely to be girls (P < 0.001), and questionnaire respondents were more myopic (P = 0.02), but otherwise did not differ significantly from nonrespondents. In multivariate models, older age (P < 0.001), more near work (P = 0.02), and higher population density (P = 0.003), but not development index, parental education, or time outdoors were significantly associated with more myopic refractive error. CONCLUSIONS: Higher population density appears to be associated with myopia risk, independent of academic activity, time spent outdoors, familial educational level, or economic development, factors that have been thought to explain higher myopia prevalence among urban children. Mechanisms for this apparent association should be sought.

Efficacy and Long-Term Outcomes of Palivizumab Prophylaxis to Prevent Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Infants with Cystic Fibrosis in Northern Ireland

BACKGROUND: RSV causes considerable morbidity and mortality in children. In cystic fibrosis (CF) viral infections are associated with worsening respiratory symptoms and bacterial colonization. Palivizumab is effective in reducing RSV hospitalization in high risk patient groups. Evidence regarding its effectiveness and safety in CF is inconclusive. CF screening in N. Ireland enabled timely palivizumab prophylaxis, becoming routine in 2002.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the effect of palivizumab on RSV-related hospitalization and compare lung function and bacterial colonization at age 6 years for those born pre- and post-introduction of palivizumab prophylaxis.

METHODS: A retrospective audit was conducted for all patients diagnosed with CF during the period from 1997 to 2007 inclusive. RSV-related hospitalization, time to Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PA) 1st isolate, lung function and growth parameters were recorded. Comparisons were made for outcomes pre- and post-introduction of routine palivizumab administration in 2002. A cost evaluation was also performed.

RESULTS: Ninety-two children were included; 47 pre- and 45 post-palivizumab introduction. The overall RSV-positive hospitalization rate was 13%. The relative risk of RSV infection in palivizumab non-recipients versus recipients was 4.78 (95%CI: 1.1-20.7), P = 0.027. Notably, PA 1st isolate was significantly earlier in the palivizumab recipient cohort versus non-recipient cohort (median 57 vs. 96 months, P < 0.025) with a relative risk of 2.5. Chronic PA infection at 6 years remained low in both groups, with similar lung function and growth parameters. Total costs were calculated at £96,127 ($151,880) for the non-recipient cohort versus £137,954 ($217,967) for the recipient cohort.

CONCLUSION: Palivizumab was effective in reducing RSV-related hospitalization infection in CF patients. Surprisingly, we found a significantly earlier time to 1st isolate of PA in palivizumab recipients which we could not explain by altered or improved diagnostic tests. 

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.

Methods: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.
Findings: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women.

Interpretation: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.