Adaptive Dialogue Strategy Selection through Imprecise Probabilistic Query Answering

In a human-computer dialogue system, the dialogue strategy can range from very restrictive to highly flexible. Each specific dialogue style has its pros and cons and a dialogue system needs to select the most appropriate style for a given user. During the course of interaction, the dialogue style can change based on a user’s response and the system observation of the user. This allows a dialogue system to understand a user better and provide a more suitable way of communication. Since measures of the quality of the user’s interaction with the system can be incomplete and uncertain, frameworks for reasoning with uncertain and incomplete information can help the system make better decisions when it chooses a dialogue strategy. In this paper, we investigate how to select a dialogue strategy based on aggregating the factors detected during the interaction with the user. For this purpose, we use probabilistic logic programming (PLP) to model probabilistic knowledge about how these factors will affect the degree of freedom of a dialogue. When a dialogue system needs to know which strategy is more suitable, an appropriate query can be executed against the PLP and a probabilistic solution with a degree of satisfaction is returned. The degree of satisfaction reveals how much the system can trust the probability attached to the solution.

Integrating textual analysis and evidential reasoning for decision making in Engineering design

Decision making is an important element throughout the life-cycle of large-scale projects. Decisions are critical as they have a direct impact upon the success/outcome of a project and are affected by many factors including the certainty and precision of information. In this paper we present an evidential reasoning framework which applies Dempster-Shafer Theory and its variant Dezert-Smarandache Theory to aid decision makers in making decisions where the knowledge available may be imprecise, conflicting and uncertain. This conceptual framework is novel as natural language based information extraction techniques are utilized in the extraction and estimation of beliefs from diverse textual information sources, rather than assuming these estimations as already given. Furthermore we describe an algorithm to define a set of maximal consistent subsets before fusion occurs in the reasoning framework. This is important as inconsistencies between subsets may produce results which are incorrect/adverse in the decision making process. The proposed framework can be applied to problems involving material selection and a Use Case based in the Engineering domain is presented to illustrate the approach. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Longitudinal Study of Stargardt Disease: Clinical and Electrophysiologic Assessment, Progression, and Genotype Correlations

Purpose: To investigate the clinical and electrophysiologic natural history of Stargardt disease and correlate with the genotype. Design: Cohort study of 59 patients. Methods: Clinical history, examination, and electrophysiologic assessment were undertaken in a longitudinal survey. Patients were classified into 3 groups based on electrophysiologic findings, as previously published: Group 1 had dysfunction confined to the macula; Group 2 had macular and generalized cone system dysfunction; and Group 3 had macular and both generalized cone and rod system dysfunction. At baseline, there were 27 patients in Group 1, 17 in Group 2, and 15 in Group 3. Amplitude reduction of >50% in the relevant electroretinogram (ERG) component or a peak time shift of >3 ms for the 30 Hz flicker ERG or bright flash a-wave was considered clinically significant ERG deterioration. Molecular screening of ABCA4 was undertaken. Results: The mean age at baseline was 31.7 years, with the mean follow-up interval being 10.5 years. A total of 22% of patients from Group 1 showed ERG group transition during follow-up, with 11% progressing to Group 2 and 11% to Group 3. Forty-seven percent of patients in Group 2 progressed to Group 3. There was clinically significant ERG deterioration in 54% of all subjects: 22% of Group 1, 65% of Group 2, and 100% of Group 3. At least 1 disease-causing ABCA4 variant was identified in 47 patients. Conclusions: All patients with initial rod ERG involvement demonstrated clinically significant electrophysiologic deterioration; only 20% of patients with normal full-field ERGs at baseline showed clinically significant progression. Such data assist counseling by providing more accurate prognostic information and are also highly relevant in the design, patient selection, and monitoring of potential therapeutic interventions. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modified Information Criteria and Selection of Long Memory Time Series Models

The problem of model selection of a univariate long memory time series is investigated once a semi parametric estimator for the long memory parameter has been used. Standard information criteria are not consistent in this case. A Modified Information Criterion (MIC) that overcomes these difficulties is introduced and proofs that show its asymptotic validity are provided. The results are general and cover a wide range of short memory processes. Simulation evidence compares the new and existing methodologies and empirical applications in monthly inflation and daily realized volatility are presented.

The Analogical Peacock Hypothesis: The Sexual Selection of Mind-Reading and Relational Cognition in Human Communication

This integrative review presents a novel hypothesis as a basis for integrating two evolutionary viewpoints on the origins of human cognition and communication, the sexual selection of human mental capacities, and the social brain hypothesis. This new account suggests that mind-reading social skills increased reproductive success and consequently became targets for sexual selection. The hypothesis proposes that human communication has three purposes: displaying mind-reading abilities, aligning and maintaining representational parity between individuals to enable displays, and the exchange of propositional information. Intelligence, creativity, language, and humor are mental fitness indicators that signal an individual’s quality to potential mates, rivals, and allies. Five features central to the proposed display mechanism unify these indicators, the relational combination of concepts, large conceptual knowledge networks, processing speed, contextualization, and receiver knowledge. Sufficient between-mind alignment of conceptual networks allows displays based upon within-mind conceptual mappings. Creative displays communicate previously unnoticed relational connections and novel conceptual combinations demonstrating an ability to read a receiver’s mind. Displays are costly signals of mate quality with costs incurred in the developmental production of the neural apparatus required to engage in complex displays and opportunity costs incurred through time spent acquiring cultural knowledge. Displays that are fast, novel, spontaneous, contextual, topical, and relevant are hard-to-fake for lower quality individuals. Successful displays result in elevated social status and increased mating options. The review addresses literatures on costly signaling, sexual selection, mental fitness indicators, and the social brain hypothesis; drawing implications for nonverbal and verbal communication.

Impact of Metric Selection on Wireless DeAuthentication DoS Attack Performance

DeAuthentication Denial of Service attacks in Public Access WiFi operate by exploiting the lack of authentication of management frames in the 802.11 protocol. Detection of these attacks rely almost exclusively on the selection of appropriate thresholds. In this work the authors demonstrate that there are additional, previously unconsidered, metrics which also influence DoS detection performance. A method of systematically tuning these metrics to optimal values is proposed which ensures that parameter choices are repeatable and verifiable.

Il Neolitico di Umbria - gallery, San Marco Gubbio.:Neolithic text and selection of material for display and interpretation

2009-10 Perugia – provision of material and data for gallery and information panels in Perugia Museo dei Provincia

Threshold-based substream selection for closed-loop spatial multiplexing

We propose a low-complexity closed-loop spatial multiplexing method with limited feedback over multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) fading channels. The transmit adaptation is simply performed by selecting transmit antennas (or substreams) by comparing their signal-to-noise ratios to a given threshold with a fixed nonadaptive constellation and fixed transmit power per substream. We analyze the performance of the proposed system by deriving closed-form expressions for spectral efficiency, average transmit power, and bit error rate (BER). Depending on practical system design constraints, the threshold is chosen to maximize the spectral efficiency (or minimize the average BER) subject to average transmit power and average BER (or spectral efficiency) constraints, respectively. We present numerical and Monte Carlo simulation results that validate our analysis. Compared to open-loop spatial multiplexing and other approaches that select the best antenna subset in spatial multiplexing, the numerical results illustrate that the proposed technique obtains significant power gains for the same BER and spectral efficiency. We also provide numerical results that show improvement over rate-adaptive orthogonal space-time block coding, which requires highly complex constellation adaptation. We analyze the impact of feedback delay using analytical and Monte Carlo approaches. The proposed approach is arguably the simplest possible adaptive spatial multiplexing system from an implementation point of view. However, our approach and analysis can be extended to other systems using multiple constellations and power levels.

A Variant in LDLR is Associated with Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

Background—Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a common cardiovascular disease among older people and demonstrates significant heritability. In contrast to similar complex diseases, relatively few genetic associations with AAA have been confirmed. We reanalysed our genome-wide study and carried through to replication suggestive discovery associations at a lower level of significance.

Methods and Results—A genome-wide association study was conducted using 1,830 cases from the UK, New Zealand and Australia with infra-renal aorta diameter =30mm or ruptured AAA and 5,435 unscreened controls from the 1958 Birth Cohort and National Blood Service cohort from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium. Eight suggestive associations with P<1x10-4 were carried through to in silico replication in 1,292 AAA cases and 30,503 controls. One SNP associated with P<0.05 after Bonferroni correction in the in silico study underwent further replication (706 AAA cases and 1,063 controls from the UK, 507 AAA cases and 199 controls from Denmark and 885 AAA cases and 1,000 controls from New Zealand). Low density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) rs6511720 A, was significantly associated overall and in three of five individual replication studies. The full study showed an association that reached genome-wide significance (odds ratio 0.76; 95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.83; P=2.08x10-10).

Conclusions—LDLR rs6511720 is associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm. This finding is consistent with established effects of this variant on coronary artery disease. Shared aetiological pathways with other cardiovascular diseases may present novel opportunities for preventative and therapeutic strategies for AAA.

Common variant at 16p11.2 conferring risk of psychosis

Epidemiological and genetic data support the notion that schizophrenia and bipolar disorder share genetic risk factors. In our previous genome-wide association (GWA) study, meta-analysis and follow-up (totaling as many as 18,206 cases and 42,536 controls), we identified four loci showing genome-wide significant association with schizophrenia. Here we consider a mixed schizophrenia and bipolar disorder (psychosis) phenotype (addition of 7,469 bipolar disorder cases, 1,535 schizophrenia cases, 333 other psychosis cases, 808 unaffected family members and 46,160 controls). Combined analysis reveals a novel variant at 16p11.2 showing genome-wide significant association (rs4583255[T], OR = 1.08, P = 6.6 × 10−11). The new variant is located within a 593 kb region that substantially increases risk of psychosis when duplicated. In line with the association of the duplication with reduced body mass index (BMI), rs4583255[T] is also associated with lower BMI (P = 0.0039 in the public GIANT consortium dataset; P = 0.00047 in 22,651 additional Icelanders).

Selection and Treatment of Data for Radiocarbon Calibration: An Update to the International Calibration (IntCal) Criteria

High-quality data from appropriate archives are needed for the continuing improvement of radiocarbon calibration curves. We discuss here the basic assumptions behind 14C dating that necessitate calibration and the relative strengths and weaknesses of archives from which calibration data are obtained. We also highlight the procedures, problems and uncertainties involved in determining atmospheric and surface ocean 14C/12C in these archives, including a discussion of the various methods used to derive an independent absolute timescale and uncertainty. The types of data required for the current IntCal database and calibration curve model are tabulated with examples.