The reliability of R50 as a measure of vulnerability of food webs to sequential species deletions

Recent studies predict elevated and accelerating rates of species extinctions over the 21st century, due to climate change and habitat loss. Considering that such primary species loss may initiate cascades of secondary extinctions and push systems towards critical tipping points, we urgently need to increase our understanding of if certain sequences of species extinctions can be expected to be more devastating than others Most theoretical studies addressing this question have used a topological (non-dynamical) approach to analyse the probability that food webs will collapse, below a fixed threshold value in species richness, when subjected to different sequences of species loss. Typically, these studies have neither considered the possibility of dynamical responses of species, nor that conclusions may depend on the value of the collapse threshold. Here we analyse how sensitive conclusions on the importance of different species are to the threshold value of food web collapse. Using dynamical simulations, where we expose model food webs to a range of extinction sequences, we evaluate the reliability of the most frequently used index, R<inf>50</inf>, as a measure of food web robustness. In general, we find that R<inf>50</inf> is a reliable measure and that identification of destructive deletion sequences is fairly robust, within a moderate range of collapse thresholds. At the same time, however, focusing on R<inf>50</inf> only hides a lot of interesting information on the disassembly process and can, in some cases, lead to incorrect conclusions on the relative importance of species in food webs.

Can less be more? Comparison of an 8-item placement quality measure with the 50-item Dundee Ready Educational Environment Measure (DREEM)

Clinical clerks learn more than they are taught and not all they learn can be measured. As a result, curriculum leaders evaluate clinical educational environments. The quantitative Dundee Ready Environment Measure (DREEM) is a de facto standard for that purpose. Its 50 items and 5 subscales were developed by consensus. Reasoning that an instrument would perform best if it were underpinned by a clearly conceptualized link between environment and learning as well as psychometric evidence, we developed the mixed methods Manchester Clinical Placement Index (MCPI), eliminated redundant items, and published validity evidence for its 8 item and 2 subscale structure. Here, we set out to compare MCPI with DREEM. 104 students on full-time clinical placements completed both measures three times during a single academic year. There was good agreement and at least as good discrimination between placements with the smaller MCPI. Total MCPI scores and the mean score of its 5-item learning environment subscale allowed ten raters to distinguish between the quality of educational environments. Twenty raters were needed for the 3-item MCPI training subscale and the DREEM scale and its subscales. MCPI compares favourably with DREEM in that one-sixth the number of items perform at least as well psychometrically, it provides formative free text data, and it is founded on the widely shared assumption that communities of practice make good learning environments.

Hidden Markov Models With Set-Valued Parameters

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used probabilistic models of sequential data. As with other probabilistic models, they require the specification of local conditional probability distributions, whose assessment can be too difficult and error-prone, especially when data are scarce or costly to acquire. The imprecise HMM (iHMM) generalizes HMMs by allowing the quantification to be done by sets of, instead of single, probability distributions. iHMMs have the ability to suspend judgment when there is not enough statistical evidence, and can serve as a sensitivity analysis tool for standard non-stationary HMMs. In this paper, we consider iHMMs under the strong independence interpretation, for which we develop efficient inference algorithms to address standard HMM usage such as the computation of likelihoods and most probable explanations, as well as performing filtering and predictive inference. Experiments with real data show that iHMMs produce more reliable inferences without compromising the computational efficiency.

Switched Diversity Techniques for Indoor Off-body Communications Channels: An Experimental Analysis and Modeling

This paper investigates the potential improvement in signal reliability for indoor off-body communications channels operating at 5.8 GHz using switched diversity techniques. In particular we investigate the performance of switch-and-stay combining (SSC), switch-and-examine combining (SEC) and switch-and-examine combining with post-examining selection (SECps) schemes which utilize multiple spatially separated antennas at the base station. During the measurements a test subject, wearing an antenna on his chest, performed a number of walking movements towards and then away from a uniform linear array. It was found that all of the considered diversity schemes provided a worthwhile signal improvement. However, the performance of the diversity systems varied according to the switching threshold that was adopted. To model the fading envelope observed at the output of each of the combiners, we have applied diversity specific equations developed under the assumption of Nakagami-$m$ fading. As a measure of the goodness-of-fit, the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the empirical and theoretical probability density functions (PDFs) was calculated and found to be close to 0. To assist with the interpretation of the goodness-of-fit achieved in this study, the standard deviation, $\sigma$, of a zero-mean, $\sigma^2$ variance Gaussian PDF used to approximate a zero-mean, unit variance Gaussian PDF is also presented. These were generally quite close to 1 indicating that the theoretical models provided an adequate fit to the measured data.

Development of the Consumer Refrigerator Safety Questionnaire (CRSQ): A Measure of Consumer Perceptions and Practices

Food preparation and storage behaviors in the home deviating from the ‘best practice’ food safety recommendations may result in food borne illnesses. Currently, there are limited tools available to fully evaluate the consumer knowledge, perceptions and behavior in the area of refrigerator safety. The current study aimed to develop a valid and reliable tool in the form of a questionnaire (CFSQCRSQ) for assessing systematically all these aspects. Items relating to refrigerator safety knowledge (n=17), perceptions (n=46), reported behavior (n=30) were developed and pilot tested by an expert reference group and various consumer groups to assess face and content validity (n=20), item difficulty and item consistency (n=55) and construct validity (n=23). The findings showed that the CFSQCRSQ has acceptable face and content validity with acceptable levels of item difficulty. Item consistency was observed for 12 out of 15 refrigerator safety knowledge. Further, all five of the subscales of consumer perceptions of refrigerator safety practices relating to risk of developing foodborne disease food poisoning showed acceptable internal consistency (Cronbach’s α value > 0.8). Construct validity of the CFSQCRSQ was shown to be very good (p=0.022). The CFSQCRSQ exhibited acceptable test-retest reliability at 14 days with majority of knowledge items (93.3%) and reported behavior items (96.4%) having correlation coefficients of greater than 0.70. Overall, the CFSQCRSQ was deemed valid and reliable in assessing refrigerator safety knowledge and behavior and therefore has the potential for future use in identifying groups of individuals at increased risk of deviating from recommended refrigerator safety practices as well as the assessment of refrigerator safety knowledge, behavior for use before and after an intervention.

Nonequilibrium processes from generalized Langevin equations: Realistic nanoscale systems connected to two thermal baths

We extend the generalized Langevin equation (GLE) method [L. Stella, C. D. Lorenz, and L. Kantorovich, Phys. Rev. B 89, 134303 (2014)] to model a central classical region connected to two realistic thermal baths at two different temperatures. In such nonequilibrium conditions a heat flow is established, via the central system, in between the two baths. The GLE-2B (GLE two baths) scheme permits us to have a realistic description of both the dissipative central system and its surrounding baths. Following the original GLE approach, the extended Langevin dynamics scheme is modified to take into account two sets of auxiliary degrees of freedom corresponding to the mapping of the vibrational properties of each bath. These auxiliary variables are then used to solve the non-Markovian dissipative dynamics of the central region. The resulting algorithm is used to study a model of a short Al nanowire connected to two baths. The results of the simulations using the GLE-2B approach are compared to the results of other simulations that were carried out using standard thermostatting approaches (based on Markovian Langevin and Nosé-Hoover thermostats). We concentrate on the steady-state regime and study the establishment of a local temperature profile within the system. The conditions for obtaining a flat profile or a temperature gradient are examined in detail, in agreement with earlier studies. The results show that the GLE-2B approach is able to treat, within a single scheme, two widely different thermal transport regimes, i.e., ballistic systems, with no temperature gradient, and diffusive systems with a temperature gradient.

Systematic Review of the Measurement Properties of Tools Used to Measure Behaviour Problems in Young Children with Autism

Background
Behaviour problems are common in young children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). There are many different tools used to measure behavior problems but little is known about their validity for the population.

Objectives
To evaluate the measurement properties of behaviour problems tools used in evaluation of intervention or observational research studies with children with ASD up to the age of six years.

Methods
Behaviour measurement tools were identified as part of a larger, two stage, systematic review. First, sixteen major electronic databases, as well as grey literature and research registers were searched, and tools used listed and categorized. Second, using methodological filters, we searched for articles examining the measurement properties of the tools in use with young children with ASD in ERIC, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsycINFO. The quality of these papers was then evaluated using the COSMIN checklist.

Results
We identified twelve tools which had been used to measure behaviour problems in young children with ASD, and fifteen studies which investigated the measurement properties of six of these tools. There was no evidence available for the remaining six tools. Two questionnaires were found to be the most robust in their measurement properties, the Child Behavior Checklist and the Home Situations Questionnaire—Pervasive Developmental Disorders version.

Conclusions
We found patchy evidence on reliability and validity, for only a few of the tools used to measure behaviour problems in young children with ASD. More systematic research is required on measurement properties of tools for use in this population, in particular to establish responsiveness to change which is essential in measurement of outcomes of intervention.

PROSPERO Registration Number

CRD42012002223