What’s information got to do with it? Third-party voting in plurality systems

Although strategic voting theory predicts that the number of parties will not exceed two in single-member district plurality systems, the observed number of parties often does. Previous research suggests that the reason why people vote for third parties is that they possess inaccurate information about the parties’ relative chances of winning. However, research has yet to determine whether third-party voting persists under conditions of accurate information. In this article, we examine whether possessing accurate information prevents individuals from voting for third-placed parties in the 2005 and 2010 British elections. We find that possessing accurate information does not prevent most individuals from voting for third-placed parties and that many voters possess reasonably accurate information regarding the viability of the parties in their constituencies. These findings suggest that arguments emphasizing levels of voter information as a major explanation for why multiparty systems often emerge in plurality systems are exaggerated.

Serving Multiple Masters: Exploring HRD in the Context of Third Sector Partnerships for Public Service Delivery

Organisations in the Non-Profit and Voluntary (NPV) sector increasingly face challenging and uncertain times with an increasing shift from public grant funding towards contract funding. As a result many of these changes employees in such organisations have often found themselves working more closely under contract with colleagues in public sector organisations in order to provide public services. Using a multiple case study methodology and in-depth interviewing of a range of stakeholders form two large Northern Irish based Non Profit Organisations in the social care sector, the purpose of this research was to
investigate HRD and people management issues and how a turbulent environment can affect how organisations approach HRD strategy and implementation.

The research identifies the importance placed upon NPOs adopting HRD strategies and addressing the development of unique and specialised skills in order to claw back power within the relationships they serve with statutory funding bodies. However this research also notes that the manner in which HRD and its associated issues are considered within NPOs can have an impact on the loyalty and commitment of the workforce which serves them. What is of concern is that the context for the delivery of public services under contract is putting increasing strain on NPOs and this has been felt markedly by their respective workforces, and unless strong values-led leadership and managerial practice is in
place in NPOs, the voluntary-centred ethos of those who work in the sector may be significantly damaged.

Glycemic targets in the second and third trimester of pregnancy for women with type 1 diabetes

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between second and third trimester glycemic control and adverse outcomes in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes, as uncertainty exists about optimum glycemic targets.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Pregnancy outcomes were assessed prospectively in 725 women with type 1 diabetes from the Diabetes and Pre-eclampsia Intervention Trial. HbA1c (A1C) values at 26 and 34 weeks' gestation were categorized into five groups, the lowest, <6.0% (42 mmol/mol), being the reference. Average pre- and postprandial results from an eight-point capillary glucose profile the previous day were categorized into five groups, the lowest (preprandial <5.0 mmol/L and postprandial <6.0 mmol/L) being the reference.

RESULTS: An A1C of 6.0-6.4% (42-47 mmol/mol) at 26 weeks' gestation was associated with a significantly increased risk of large for gestational age (LGA) (odds ratio 1.7 [95% CI 1.0-3.0]) and an A1C of 6.5-6.9% (48-52 mmol/mol) with a significantly increased risk of preterm delivery (odds ratio 2.5 [95% CI 1.3-4.8]), pre-eclampsia (4.3 [1.7-10.8]), need for a neonatal glucose infusion (2.9 [1.5-5.6]), and a composite adverse outcome (3.2 [1.3-8.0]). These risks increased progressively with increasing A1C. Results were similar at 34 weeks' gestation. Glucose data showed less consistent trends, although the risk of a composite adverse outcome increased with preprandial glucose levels between 6.0 and 6.9 mmol/L at 34 weeks (3.3 [1.3-8.0]).

CONCLUSIONS: LGA increased significantly with an A1C ≥6.0 (42 mmol/mol) at 26 and 34 weeks' gestation and with other adverse outcomes with an A1C ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol). The data suggest that there is clinical utility in regular measurement of A1C during pregnancy.

Match-fixing and Money-laundering

his essay is premised on the following: a conspiracy to fix or otherwise manipulate the outcome of a sporting event for profitable purpose. That conspiracy is in turn predicated on the conspirators’ capacity to: (a) ensure that the fix takes place as pre-determined; (b) manipulate the betting markets that surround the sporting event in question; and (c) collect their winnings undetected by either the betting industry’s security systems or the attention of any national regulatory body or law enforcement agency.

Unlike many essays on this topic, this contribution does not focus on the “fix”– part (a) of the above equation. It does not seek to explain how or why a participant or sports official might facilitate a betting scam through either on-field behaviour that manipulates the outcome of a game or by presenting others with privileged inside information in advance of a game. Neither does this contribution seek to give any real insight into the second part of the above equation: how such conspirators manipulate a sports betting market by playing or laying the handicap or in-play or other offered betting odds. In fact, this contribution is not really about the mechanics of sports betting or match fixing at all; rather it is about the sometimes under explained reason why match fixing has reportedly become increasingly attractive as of late to international crime syndicates. That reason relates to the fact that given the traditional liquidity of gambling markets, sports betting can, and has long been, an attractively accessible conduit for criminal syndicates to launder the proceeds of crime. Accordingly, the term “winnings”, noted in part (c) of the above equation, takes on an altogether more nefarious meaning.

This essay’s attempt to review the possible links between match fixing in sport, gambling-related “winnings” and money laundering is presented in four parts.

First, some context will be given to what is meant by money laundering, how it is currently policed internationally and, most importantly, how the growth of online gambling presents a unique set of vulnerabilities and opportunities to launder the proceeds of crime. The globalisation of organised crime, sports betting and transnational financial services now means that money laundering opportunities have moved well beyond a flutter on the horses at your local racetrack or at the roulette table of your nearest casino. The growth of online gambling platforms means that at a click it is possible for the proceeds of crime in one jurisdiction to be placed on a betting market in another jurisdiction with the winnings drawn down and laundered in a third jurisdiction and thus the internationalisation of gambling-related money laundering threatens the integrity of sport globally.

Second, and referring back to the infamous hearings of the US Senate Special Committee to Investigate Organised Crime in Interstate Commerce of the early 1950s, (“the Kefauver Committee”), this article will begin by illustrating the long standing interest of organised crime gangs – in this instance, various Mafia families in the United States – in money laundering via sports gambling-related means.

Third, and using the seminal 2009 report “Money Laundering through the Football Sector” by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF, an inter-governmental body established in 1989 to promote effective implementation of legal, regulatory and operational measures for combating money laundering, terrorist financing and other related threats to the integrity of the international financial system), this essay seeks to assess the vulnerabilities of international sport to match fixing, as motivated in part by the associated secondary criminality of tax evasion and transnational economic crime.

The fourth and concluding parts of the essay spin from problems to possible solutions. The underlying premise here is that heretofore there has been an insularity to the way that sports organisations have both conceptualised and sought to address the match fixing threat e.g., if we (in sport) initiate player education programmes; establish integrity units; enforce codes of conduct and sanctions strictly; then our integrity or brand should be protected. This essay argues that, although these initiatives are important, the source and process of match fixing is beyond sport’s current capacity, as are the possible solutions.

Conflicts in the Middle East since 1945, (London: Routledge, 2007, Third Edition).

This third edition of Conflicts in the Middle East since 1945 analyzes the nature of conflict in the Middle East, with its racial, ethnic, political, cultural, religious and economic factors. Throughout the book Peter Hinchcliffe and Beverley Milton-Edwards put the main conflicts into their wider context, with thematic debates on issues such as the emergence of radical Islam, the resolution of conflicts, diplomacy and peace-making, and the role of the superpowers.

The book is brought fully up to date with events in the Middle East, covering, for instance, developments in Iraq in 2006 where a democratically elected government is in place but the insurgency show no sign of coming under control. The analysis of the Palestinian/Israeli conflict is also brought up to the present day, to include the election of the Hamas government and the 2006 conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hizballah.

Including a newly updated bibliography and maps of the area, this is the perfect introduction for all students wishing to understand the complex situation in the Middle East, in its historical context.

Quantum control of photodissociation using intense, femtosecond pulses shaped with third order dispersion

We demonstrate the ability to control the molecular dissociation rate using femtosecond pulses shaped with third-order dispersion (TOD). Explicitly, a significant 50% enhancement in the dissociation yield for the low lying vibrational levels (v ∼ 6) of an H+2 ion-beam target was measured as a function of TOD. The underlying mechanism responsible for this enhanced dissociation was theoretically identified as non-adiabatic alignment induced by the pre-pulses situated on the leading edge of pulses shaped with negative TOD. This control scheme is expected to work in other molecules as it does not rely on specific characteristics of our test-case H+2 molecule.

Dynamic axle force and road profile identification using a moving vehicle

The axle forces applied by a vehicle through its wheels are a critical part of the interaction between vehicles, pavements and bridges. Therefore, the minimisation of these forces is important in order to promote long pavement life spans and ensure that bridge loads are small. Moreover, as the road surface roughness affects the vehicle dynamic forces, the monitoring of pavements for highways and bridges is an important task. This paper presents a novel algorithm to identify these dynamic interaction forces which involves direct instrumentation of a vehicle with accelerometers. The ability of this approach to predict the pavement roughness is also presented. Moving force identification theory is applied to a vehicle model in theoretical simulations in order to obtain the interaction forces and pavement roughness from the measured accelerations. The method is tested for a range of bridge spans in simulations and the influence of road roughness level on the accuracy of the results is investigated. Finally, the challenge for the real-world problem is addressed in a laboratory experiment.

Investigation of tanpura string vibrations using a two-dimensional time-domain model incorporating coupling and bridge friction

Tanpura string vibrations have been investigated previously using numerical models based on energy conserving schemes derived from a Hamiltonian description in one-dimensional form. Such time-domain models have the property that, for the lossless case, the numerical Hamiltonian (representing total energy of the system) can be proven to be constant from one time step
to the next, irrespective of any of the system parameters; in practice the Hamiltonian can be shown to be conserved within machine precision. Models of this kind can reproduce a jvari effect, which results from the bridge-string interaction. However the one-dimensional formulation has recently been shown to fail to replicate the jvaris strong dependence on the thread placement. As a first step towards simulations which accurately emulate this sensitivity to the thread placement, a twodimensional model is proposed, incorporating coupling of controllable level between the two string polarisations at the string termination opposite from the barrier. In addition, a friction force acting when the string slides across the bridge in horizontal direction is introduced, thus effecting a further damping mechanism. In this preliminary study, the string is terminated at the position of the thread. As in the one-dimensional model, an implicit scheme has to be used to solve the system, employing Newton's method to calculate the updated positions and momentums of each string segment. The two-dimensional model is proven to be energy conserving when the loss parameters are set to zero, irrespective of the coupling constant. Both frequency-dependent and independent losses are then added to the string, so that the model can be compared to analogous instruments. The influence of coupling and the bridge friction are investigated.

The planning and control of operations involving the use of lethal force

This is an analysis of the case law of the European Court of Human Rights on the obligation on States to plan and control the use of potentially lethal force by their police and military personnel. It illustrates the Court's attachment to the strict or careful scrutiny test and suggests how the Court might want to develop its jurisprudence in the future.

Species composition of coastal dune vegetation in Scotland has proved resistant to climate change over a third of a century

Climate change is expected to have an impact on plant communities as increased temperatures are expected to drive individual species' distributions polewards. The results of a revisitation study after c. 34years of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, were examined to assess the degree of shifts in species composition that could be accounted for by climate change. There was little evidence for either species retreat northwards or for plots to become more dominated by species with a more southern distribution. At a few sites where significant change occurred, the changes were accounted for by the invasion, or in one instance the removal, of woody species. Also, the vegetation types that showed the most sensitivity to change were all early successional types and changes were primarily the result of succession rather than climate-driven changes. Dune vegetation appears resistant to climate change impacts on the vegetation, either as the vegetation is inherently resistant to change, management prevents increased dominance of more southerly species or because of dispersal limitation to geographically isolated sites.