Higher incidence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus in remote areas: a UK regional small-area analysis

Aims/hypothesis: We investigated the association between the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus and remoteness (a proxy measure for exposure to infections) using recently developed techniques for statistical analysis of small-area data.

Subjects, materials and methods: New cases in children aged 0 to 14 years in Northern Ireland were prospectively registered from 1989 to 2003. Ecological analysis was conducted using small geographical units (582 electoral wards) and area characteristics including remoteness, deprivation and child population density. Analysis was conducted using Poisson regression models and Bayesian
hierarchical models to allow for spatially correlated risks that were potentially caused by unmeasured explanatory variables.

Results: In Northern Ireland between 1989 and 2003, there were 1,433 new cases of type 1 diabetes, giving a directly standardised incidence rate of 24.7 per 100,000 personyears. Areas in the most remote fifth of all areas had a significantly (p=0.0006) higher incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (incidence rate ratio=1.27 [95% CI 1.07, 1.50]) than those in the most accessible fifth of all areas. There was also a higher incidence rate in areas that were less deprived (p<0.0001) and less densely populated (p=0.002). After adjustment for deprivation and additional adjustment for child population density the association between diabetes and remoteness remained significant (p=0.01 and p=0.03, respectively).

Conclusions/interpretation: In Northern Ireland, there is evidence that remote areas experience higher rates of type 1 diabetes mellitus. This could reflect a reduced or delayed exposure to infections, particularly early in life, in these areas.

Interleukin 18 promoter polymorphisms are not strongly associated with type 1 diabetes in a UK population

Interleukin 18 (IL18) is a proinflammatory cytokine whose levels are increased in the subclinical stage of insulin-dependent (type I) diabetes mellitus. Previous case-control studies have reported associations between IL18 -607C>A and -137G>C promoter polymorphisms and type I diabetes. We performed case-control and family-based association studies employing Pyrosequencing to assess if these IL18 polymorphisms are also associated with the development of type I diabetes in the Northern Ireland population. The chi2 analysis of genotype and allele frequencies for the IL18 polymorphisms in cases (n=433) vs controls (n=426) revealed no significant differences (P>0.05). Assessment of allele transmission distortion from informative parents to affected offspring also failed to confirm previously reported associations. Stratification of these analyses for age-at-onset and HLA-DR type did not reveal any significance associations. In conclusion, our data do not support the strong positive associations of IL18 promoter polymorphisms with type I diabetes reported in previous smaller studies.