Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 European centers during 1989-2008: little short-term influence of sunshine hours or average temperature

BACKGROUND: The month of diagnosis in childhood type 1 diabetes shows seasonal variation.

OBJECTIVE: We describe the pattern and investigate if year-to-year irregularities are associated with meteorological factors using data from 50 000 children diagnosed under the age of 15 yr in 23 population-based European registries during 1989-2008.

METHODS: Tests for seasonal variation in monthly counts aggregated over the 20 yr period were performed. Time series regression was used to investigate if sunshine hour and average temperature data were predictive of the 240 monthly diagnosis counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.

RESULTS: Significant sinusoidal pattern was evident in all but two small centers with peaks in November to February and relative amplitudes ranging from ±11 to ±38% (median ±17%). However, most centers showed significant departures from a sinusoidal pattern. Pooling results over centers, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, with least seasonal variation in those under 5 yr. Boys showed greater seasonal variation than girls, particularly those aged 10-14 yr. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four 5-yr sub-periods. Departures from the sinusoidal trend in monthly diagnoses in the period were significantly associated with deviations from the norm in average temperature (0.8% reduction in diagnoses per 1 °C excess) but not with sunshine hours.

CONCLUSIONS: Seasonality was consistently apparent throughout the period in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5 s showed less marked variation. Neither sunshine hour nor average temperature data contributed in any substantial way to explaining departures from the sinusoidal pattern.

Almahata Sitta (=asteroid 2008 TC3) and the search for the ureilite parent body

This article explores what the recovery of 2008 TC3 in the form of the Almahata Sitta meteorites may tell us about the source region of ureilites in the main asteroid belt. An investigation is made into what is known about asteroids with roughly the same spectroscopic signature as 2008 TC3. A population of low-inclination near-Earth asteroids is identified with spectra similar to 2008 TC3. Five asteroid families in the Main Belt, as well as a population of ungrouped asteroids scattered in the inner and central belts, are identified as possible source regions for this near-Earth population and 2008 TC3. Three of the families are ruled out on dynamical and spectroscopic grounds. New near-infrared spectra of 142 Polana and 1726 Hoffmeister, lead objects in the two other families, also show a poor match to Almahata Sitta. Thus, there are no Main Belt spectral analogs to Almahata Sitta currently known. Space weathering effects on ureilitic materials have not been investigated, so that it is unclear how the spectrum of the Main Belt progenitor may look different from the spectra of 2008 TC3 and the Almahata Sitta meteorites. Dynamical arguments are discussed, as well as ureilite petrogenesis and parent body evolution models, but these considerations do not conclusively point to a source region either, other than that 2008 TC3 probably originated in the inner asteroid belt.

in prep. Politics and memory of an island community: fieldwork on Lismore Argyll 2000- 2008.

Monograph on fieldwork on the island of Lismore, Argyll