Modelling coronary heart disease mortality in Northern Ireland between 1987 and 2007: broader lessons for prevention

To quantify how much of the coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality decline in Northern Ireland between 1987 and 2007 could be attributed to medical and surgical treatments and how much to changes in population cardiovascular risk factors.

Differential Associations of Job Control Components With Mortality: A Cohort Study, 1986-2005

Inconsistent evidence of the hypothesized favorable effects of high job control on health may have resulted from a failure to treat job control as a multifactor concept. The authors studied whether the 2 components of job control, decision authority and skill discretion, were differentially associated with cause-specific mortality in 13,510 Finnish forest company employees with no history of severe illness. Surveys on work characteristics were carried out in 1986 and 1996, and the respondents were followed up until the end of 2005 by use of the Statistics Finland National Death Registry. During a mean follow-up of 15.5 years, 981 participants died. In the analyses adjusted for confounders, employees with high and intermediate levels of skill discretion had a lower all-cause mortality risk than those with low skill discretion, with hazard ratios of 0.84 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69, 1.02) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.96), respectively. In contrast, high decision authority was associated with elevated risks of all-cause, cardiovascular, and alcohol-related mortality, with hazard ratios of 1.28 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.54), 1.49 (95% CI: 1.11, 2.02), and 2.03 (95% CI: 1.03, 4.00), respectively. The results suggest that job control is not an unequivocal concept in relation to mortality; decision authority and skill discretion show different and to some extent opposite associations.

Workplace social capital and all-cause mortality:a prospective cohort study of 28,043 public-sector employees in Finland

We examined the association between workplace social capital and all-cause mortality in a large occupational cohort from Finland.

All-cause mortality and periodontitis in 60-70-year-old men: A prospective cohort study

Objective To investigate the association between periodontitis and mortality from all causes in a prospective study in a homogenous group of 60- to 70-year-old West European men. Methodology A representative sample of 1400 dentate men, (mean age 63.8, SD 3.0 years), drawn from the population of Northern Ireland, had a comprehensive periodontal examination between 2001 and 2003. Men were divided into thirds on the basis of their mean periodontal attachment loss (PAL). The primary endpoint, death from any cause, was analysed using Kaplan-Meier survival plots and Cox's proportional hazards model. Results In total, 152 (10.9%) of the men died during a mean follow-up of 8.9 (SD 0.7) years; 37 (7.9%) men in the third with the lowest PAL (<1.8 mm) died compared with 73 (15.7%) in the third with the highest PAL (>2.6 mm). The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for death in the men with the highest level of PAL compared with those with the lowest PAL was 2.11 (95% CI 1.42-3.14), p < 0.0001. After adjustment for confounding variables (age, smoking, hypertension, BMI, diabetes, cholesterol, education, marital status and previous history of a cardiovascular event) the HR was 1.57 (1.04-2.36), p = 0.03. Conclusion The European men in this prospective cohort study with the most severe loss of periodontal attachment were at an increased risk of death compared with those with the lowest loss of periodontal attachment.

A Dynamic Factor Approach to Mortality Modelling

Longevity risk has become one of the major risks facing the insurance and pensions markets globally. The trade in longevity risk is underpinned by accurate forecasting of mortality rates. Using techniques from macroeconomic forecasting, we propose a dynamic factor model of mortality that fits and forecasts mortality rates parsimoniously.We compare the forecasting quality of this model and of existing models and find that the dynamic factor model generally provides superior forecasts when applied to international mortality data. We also show that existing multifactorial models have superior fit but their forecasting performance worsens as more factors are added. The dynamic factor approach used here can potentially be further improved upon by applying an appropriate stopping rule for the number of static and dynamic factors. 

Elevated soluble cellular adhesion molecules are associated with increased mortality in a prospective cohort of renal transplant recipients

Increased plasma levels of cellular adhesion molecules (CAMs) have been shown to be predictors of all cause mortality in individuals with chronic renal failure 12 and patients with end-stage renal disease receiving haemodialysis 3. In renal transplant recipients the predictive value of CAMs has not been well characterised. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between CAMs and all-cause mortality during prospective follow-up of a renal transplant cohort.

Decreased serum retinol is associated with increased mortality in renal transplant recipients

Vitamin A plays a central role in epithelial integrity and immune function. Given the risk of infection after transplantation, adequate vitamin A concentrations may be important in patients with a transplant. We assessed whether there was an association between retinol concentration and all-cause mortality in renal transplant recipients.

Cause-specific mortality adjudication in the UPLIFT® COPD trial:findings and recommendations

Mortality is an important endpoint in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) trials, although accurately determining cause of death is difficult. In the Understanding the Potential Long-term Impacts on Function with Tiotropium (UPLIFT®) trial, a mortality adjudication committee (MAC) provided systematic, independent and blinded assessment of cause-specific mortality of all 981 reported deaths. Here we describe this process of mortality adjudication and methodological revisions introduced to help standardise the adjudication of two areas recognised to pose particular difficulty; firstly, the classification of fatal COPD exacerbations that occur in the setting of pneumonia and secondly, the categorisation of sudden death. In addition MAC determined cause of death was compared with that reported by site investigators (SIs). MAC-assigned causes of death were: respiratory, 35%; cancer, 25%; cardiovascular, 11%; sudden cardiac death, 4.4%; sudden death, 3.4%; other, 8.8%; unknown, 12.4%. Cancer/cardiac deaths were more common in Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage II, respiratory deaths in stages III and IV. Agreement between MAC and SI regarding cause of death was complete (50.2%), incomplete (18.5%) or none (31.3%). The SI classified deaths as cardiac three-fold more frequently than MAC (incidence rate [IR]/100 patient-years 0.797 vs. 0.257), although IR ratios for cardiac deaths for tiotropium vs. control were similar between SI and MAC. Discrepancies between MAC- and SI-adjudicated causes of death are common, especially increased reporting of cardiac deaths by the SI. Future multicentre COPD trials should plan appropriate infrastructure before study initiation to ensure collection and interpretation of fatal events data.

Score for neonatal acute physiology-II and neonatal pain predict corticospinal tract development in premature newborns

Premature infants are at risk for adverse motor outcomes, including cerebral palsy and developmental coordination disorder. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of antenatal, perinatal, and postnatal risk factors for abnormal development of the corticospinal tract, the major voluntary motor pathway, during the neonatal period. In a prospective cohort study, 126 premature neonates (24-32 weeks' gestational age) underwent serial brain imaging near birth and at term-equivalent age. With diffusion tensor tractography, mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy of the corticospinal tract were measured to reflect microstructural development. Generalized estimating equation models examined associations of risk factors on corticospinal tract development. The perinatal risk factor of greater early illness severity (as measured by the Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology-II [SNAP-II]) was associated with a slower rise in fractional anisotropy of the corticospinal tract (P = 0.02), even after correcting for gestational age at birth and postnatal risk factors (P = 0.009). Consistent with previous findings, neonatal pain adjusted for morphine and postnatal infection were also associated with a slower rise in fractional anisotropy of the corticospinal tract (P = 0.03 and 0.02, respectively). Lessening illness severity in the first hours of life might offer potential to improve motor pathway development in premature newborns.