Time-lapse monitoring of fluid induced geophysical property variations within an unstable earthwork using P-wave refraction

A significant portion of the UK’s transportation system relies on a network of geotechnical earthworks (cuttings and embankments) that were constructed more than 100 years ago, whose stability is affected by the change in precipitation patterns experienced over the past few decades. The vulnerability of these structures requires a reliable, cost- and time-effective monitoring of their geomechanical condition. We have assessed the potential application of P-wave refraction for tracking the seasonal variations of seismic properties within an aged clay-filled railway embankment, located in southwest England. Seismic data were acquired repeatedly along the crest of the earthwork at regular time intervals, for a total period of 16 months. P-wave first-break times were picked from all available recorded traces, to obtain a set of hodocrones referenced to the same spatial locations, for various dates along the surveyed period of time. Traveltimes extracted from each acquisition were then compared to track the pattern of their temporal variability. The relevance of such variations over time was compared with the data experimental uncertainty. The multiple set of hodocrones was subsequently inverted using a tomographic approach, to retrieve a time-lapse model of VPVP for the embankment structure. To directly compare the reconstructed VPVP sections, identical initial models and spatial regularization were used for the inversion of all available data sets. A consistent temporal trend for P-wave traveltimes, and consequently for the reconstructed VPVP models, was identified. This pattern could be related to the seasonal distribution of precipitation and soil-water content measured on site.

Methodological variations in estimating apparent progressive visual field loss in clinical trials of glaucoma treatment.

OBJECTIVES:

To compare methods to estimate the incidence of visual field progression used by 3 large randomized trials of glaucoma treatment by applying these methods to a common data set of annually obtained visual field measurements of patients with glaucoma followed up for an average of 6 years.

METHODS:

The methods used by the Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study (AGIS), the Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study (CIGTS), and the Early Manifest Glaucoma Treatment study (EMGT) were applied to 67 eyes of 56 patients with glaucoma enrolled in a 10-year natural history study of glaucoma using Program 30-2 of the Humphrey Field Analyzer (Humphrey Instruments, San Leandro, Calif). The incidence of apparent visual field progression was estimated for each method. Extent of agreement between the methods was calculated, and time to apparent progression was compared.

RESULTS:

The proportion of patients progressing was 11%, 22%, and 23% with AGIS, CIGTS, and EMGT methods, respectively. Clinical assessment identified 23% of patients who progressed, but only half of these were also identified by CIGTS or EMGT methods. The CIGTS and the EMGT had comparable incidence rates, but only half of those identified by 1 method were also identified by the other.

CONCLUSIONS:

The EMGT and CIGTS methods produced rates of apparent progression that were twice those of the AGIS method. Although EMGT, CIGTS, and clinical assessment rates were comparable, they did not identify the same patients as having had field progression.

Parallel Time Series Analysis and Income Inequality: A New Approach to Comparative Case Studies

This case study deals with the role of time series analysis in sociology, and its relationship with the wider literature and methodology of comparative case study research. Time series analysis is now well-represented in top-ranked sociology journals, often in the form of ‘pooled time series’ research designs. These studies typically pool multiple countries together into a pooled time series cross-section panel, in order to provide a larger sample for more robust and comprehensive analysis. This approach is well suited to exploring trans-national phenomena, and for elaborating useful macro-level theories specific to social structures, national policies, and long-term historical processes. It is less suited however, to understanding how these global social processes work in different countries. As such, the complexities of individual countries - which often display very different or contradictory dynamics than those suggested in pooled studies – are subsumed. Meanwhile, a robust literature on comparative case-based methods exists in the social sciences, where researchers focus on differences between cases, and the complex ways in which they co-evolve or diverge over time. A good example of this is the inequality literature, where although panel studies suggest a general trend of rising inequality driven by the weakening power of labour, marketisation of welfare, and the rising power of capital, some countries have still managed to remain resilient. This case study takes a closer look at what can be learned by applying the insights of case-based comparative research to the method of time series analysis. Taking international income inequality as its point of departure, it argues that we have much to learn about the viability of different combinations of policy options by examining how they work in different countries over time. By taking representative cases from different welfare systems (liberal, social democratic, corporatist, or antipodean), we can better sharpen our theories of how policies can be more specifically engineered to offset rising inequality. This involves a fundamental realignment of the strategy of time series analysis, grounding it instead in a qualitative appreciation of the historical context of cases, as a basis for comparing effects between different countries.

Characteristics, complications, and gaps in evidence-based interventions in rheumatic heart disease: the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (the REMEDY study)

AIMS: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) accounts for over a million premature deaths annually; however, there is little contemporary information on presentation, complications, and treatment.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This prospective registry enrolled 3343 patients (median age 28 years, 66.2% female) presenting with RHD at 25 hospitals in 12 African countries, India, and Yemen between January 2010 and November 2012. The majority (63.9%) had moderate-to-severe multivalvular disease complicated by congestive heart failure (33.4%), pulmonary hypertension (28.8%), atrial fibrillation (AF) (21.8%), stroke (7.1%), infective endocarditis (4%), and major bleeding (2.7%). One-quarter of adults and 5.3% of children had decreased left ventricular (LV) systolic function; 23% of adults and 14.1% of children had dilated LVs. Fifty-five percent (n = 1761) of patients were on secondary antibiotic prophylaxis. Oral anti-coagulants were prescribed in 69.5% (n = 946) of patients with mechanical valves (n = 501), AF (n = 397), and high-risk mitral stenosis in sinus rhythm (n = 48). However, only 28.3% (n = 269) had a therapeutic international normalized ratio. Among 1825 women of childbearing age (12-51 years), only 3.6% (n = 65) were on contraception. The utilization of valvuloplasty and valve surgery was higher in upper-middle compared with lower-income countries.

CONCLUSION: Rheumatic heart disease patients were young, predominantly female, and had high prevalence of major cardiovascular complications. There is suboptimal utilization of secondary antibiotic prophylaxis, oral anti-coagulation, and contraception, and variations in the use of percutaneous and surgical interventions by country income level.

Sexual abuse of children in low-income settings:time for action

In this article, child sexual abuse in low-income settings is reviewed, including the extent of the problem, the way children present, and how they should be managed. Liaising with other agencies, training in all aspects of sexual abuse and creating an environment that is conducive to good care by all groups involved is essential. Technical details of medical examination are not covered as appropriate guidelines are accessible.

Modeling the Rossiter-McLaughlin Effect: Impact of the Convective Center-to-limb Variations in the Stellar Photosphere

bservations of the Rossiter–McLaughlin (RM) effect provide information on star–planet alignments, which can inform planetary migration and evolution theories. Here, we go beyond the classical RM modeling and explore the impact of a convective blueshift that varies across the stellar disk and non-Gaussian stellar photospheric profiles. We simulated an aligned hot Jupiter with a four-day orbit about a Sun-like star and injected center-to-limb velocity (and profile shape) variations based on radiative 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of solar surface convection. The residuals between our modeling and classical RM modeling were dependent on the intrinsic profile width and v sin i; the amplitude of the residuals increased with increasing v sin i and with decreasing intrinsic profile width. For slowly rotating stars the center-to-limb convective variation dominated the residuals (with amplitudes of 10 s of cm s−1 to ~1 m s−1); however, for faster rotating stars the dominant residual signature was due a non-Gaussian intrinsic profile (with amplitudes from 0.5 to 9 m s−1). When the impact factor was 0, neglecting to account for the convective center-to-limb variation led to an uncertainty in the obliquity of ~10°–20°, even though the true v sin i was known. Additionally, neglecting to properly model an asymmetric intrinsic profile had a greater impact for more rapidly rotating stars (e.g., v sin i = 6 km s−1) and caused systematic errors on the order of ~20° in the measured obliquities. Hence, neglecting the impact of stellar surface convection may bias star–planet alignment measurements and consequently theories on planetary migration and evolution.

M Dwarf Flare Continuum Variations on One-second Timescales: Calibrating and Modeling of ULTRACAM Flare Color Indices

We present a large data set of high-cadence dMe flare light curves obtained with custom continuum filters on the triple-beam, high-speed camera system ULTRACAM. The measurements provide constraints for models of the near-ultraviolet (NUV) and optical continuum spectral evolution on timescales of ≈1 s. We provide a robust interpretation of the flare emission in the ULTRACAM filters using simultaneously obtained low-resolution spectra during two moderate-sized flares in the dM4.5e star YZ CMi. By avoiding the spectral complexity within the broadband Johnson filters, the ULTRACAM filters are shown to characterize bona fide continuum emission in the NUV, blue, and red wavelength regimes. The NUV/blue flux ratio in flares is equivalent to a Balmer jump ratio, and the blue/red flux ratio provides an estimate for the color temperature of the optical continuum emission. We present a new “color-color” relationship for these continuum flux ratios at the peaks of the flares. Using the RADYN and RH codes, we interpret the ULTRACAM filter emission using the dominant emission processes from a radiative-hydrodynamic flare model with a high nonthermal electron beam flux, which explains a hot, T ≈ 104 K, color temperature at blue-to-red optical wavelengths and a small Balmer jump ratio as observed in moderate-sized and large flares alike. We also discuss the high time resolution, high signal-to-noise continuum color variations observed in YZ CMi during a giant flare, which increased the NUV flux from this star by over a factor of 100. Based on observations obtained with the Apache Point Observatory 3.5 m telescope, which is owned and operated by the Astrophysical Research Consortium, based on observations made with the William Herschel Telescope operated on the island of La Palma by the Isaac Newton Group in the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofsica de Canarias, and observations, and based on observations made with the ESO Telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under programme ID 085.D-0501(A).