Does climate change information affect stated risks of pine beetle impacts on forests? An application of the exchangeability method

Risks are an essential feature of future climate change impacts. We explore whether knowledge that climate change might be the source of increasing pine beetle impacts on public or private forests affects stated risk estimates of damage, elicited using the exchangeability method. We find that across subjects the difference between public and private forest status does not influence stated risks, but the group told that global warming is the cause of pine beetle damage has significantly higher risk perceptions than the group not given this information.

Social housing tenants, Climate Change and sustainable living: A study of awareness, behaviours and willingness to adapt

Despite a focus in the UK on providing sustainable housing in recent years, it is unlikely that targets set to reduce resource consumption in housing will be achieved without a greater focus on human behaviour. It is necessary to understand the actions of people occupying dwellings, as it is invariably the occupants rather than the buildings that decided whether or not to consume resources. In this paper the authors present a pilot study where 53 social housing tenant households in Northern Ireland were interviewed to ascertain their perceptions of Climate Change, their current behaviours and their willingness to reduce energy and water consumption in the home. The intention was to explore links between perceptions and reported behaviour as well as perceptions and willingness to reduce resource consumption. Results show that 77% of tenants believed Climate Change to be an important issue; 57% accepted that it is up to the individual to take responsibility for tackling Climate Change; and demonstrated a strong desire to make a difference to reduce their impact. The researchers identified both passive (devices) and active (behaviours) resource savings currently in place and established where further resource reduction was feasible based on tenants' willingness to alter their behaviours.

Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes

It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900-2014) records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995), whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95) and driest summer (1995) has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ∼7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ∼8 and ∼10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society.

Species composition of coastal dune vegetation in Scotland has proved resistant to climate change over a third of a century

Climate change is expected to have an impact on plant communities as increased temperatures are expected to drive individual species' distributions polewards. The results of a revisitation study after c. 34years of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, were examined to assess the degree of shifts in species composition that could be accounted for by climate change. There was little evidence for either species retreat northwards or for plots to become more dominated by species with a more southern distribution. At a few sites where significant change occurred, the changes were accounted for by the invasion, or in one instance the removal, of woody species. Also, the vegetation types that showed the most sensitivity to change were all early successional types and changes were primarily the result of succession rather than climate-driven changes. Dune vegetation appears resistant to climate change impacts on the vegetation, either as the vegetation is inherently resistant to change, management prevents increased dominance of more southerly species or because of dispersal limitation to geographically isolated sites.

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and food safety within the island of Ireland

Climate and other environmental change presents a number of challenges for effective food safety. Food production, distribution and consumption takes place within functioning ecosystems but this backdrop is often ignored or treated as static and unchanging. The risks presented by environmental change include novel pests and diseases, often caused by problem species expanding their spatial distributions as they track changing conditions, toxin generation in crops, direct effects on crop and animal production, consequences for trade networks driven by shifting economic viability of production methods in changing environments and finally, wholesale transformation of ecosystems as they respond to novel climatic regimes.

50,000-years of vegetation and climate change in the southern Namib Desert, Pella, South Africa

This paper presents the first continuous pollen record from the southern Namib Desert spanning the last 50,000 years. Obtained from rock hyrax middens found near the town of Pella, South Africa, these data are used to reconstruct vegetation change and quantitative estimates of temperature and aridity. Results indicate that the last glacial period was characterised by increased water availability at the site relative to the Holocene. Changes in temperature and potential evapotranspiration appear to have played a significant role in determining the hydrologic balance. The record can be considered in two sections: 1) the last glacial period, when low temperatures favoured the development of more mesic Nama-Karoo vegetation at the site, with periods of increased humidity concurrent with increased coastal upwelling, both responding to lower global/regional temperatures; and 2) the Holocene, during which time high temperatures and potential evapotranspiration resulted in increased aridity and an expansion of the Desert Biome. During this latter
period, increases in upwelling intensity created drier conditions at the site.
Considered in the context of discussions of forcing mechanisms of regional climate change and environmental dynamics, the results from Pella stand in clear contrast with many inferences of terrestrial environmental change derived from regional marine records. Observations of a strong precessional signal and interpretations of increased humidity during phases of high local summer insolation in the marine records are not consistent with the data from Pella. Similarly, while high percentages of Restionaceae pollen has been observed in marine sediments during the last glacial period, they do not exceed 1% of the assemblage from Pella, indicating that no significant expansion of the Fynbos Biome has occurred during the last 50,000 years. These findings pose interesting questions regarding the nature of environmental change in southwestern Africa, and the significance of the diverse records that have been obtained from the region.

Long-term changes in oxygen depletion in a small temperate lake: effects of climate change and eutrophication

1. We analysed 41 years of data (1968–2008) from Blelham Tarn, U.K., to determine the consequences of eutrophication and climate warming on hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen (DO).
2. The establishment of thermal stratification was strongly related to the onset of DO depletion in the lower hypolimnion. As a result of a progressively earlier onset of stratification and later overturn, the duration of stratification increased by 38 ± 8 days over the 41 years.
3. The observed rate of volumetric hypolimnetic oxygen depletion (VHODobs) ranged from 0.131 to 0.252 g O2 m−3 per day and decreased significantly over the study period, despite the increase in the mean chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration in the growing season. The vertical transport of DO represented from 0 to 30% of VHODobs, while adjustments for interannual differences in hypolimnetic temperature were less important, ranging from −11 to 9% of VHODobs.
4. The mean wind speed during May made the strongest significant contribution to the variation in VHODobs. VHODobs adjusted for the vertical transport of DO and hypolimnetic temperature differences, VHODadj, was significantly related to the upper mixed layer Chl a concentration during spring.
5. Hypolimnetic anoxia (HA) ranged from 27 to 168 days per year and increased significantly over time, which undoubtedly had negative ecological consequences for the lake.
6. In similar small temperate lakes, the negative effects of eutrophication on hypolimnetic DO are likely to be exacerbated by changes in lake thermal structure brought about by a warming climate, which may undermine management efforts to alleviate the effects of anthropogenic eutrophication.

Adaptable housing design for climate change adaptation

It is predicted that climate change will result in rising sea levels, more frequent and extreme weather events, hotter and drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. This will have a significant impact on the design of buildings, how they are kept cool and how they are weathered against more extreme climatic conditions. The residential sector is already a significant environmental burden with high associated operational energy. Climate change, and a growing population requiring residence, has the potential to exacerbate this problem seriously. New paradigms for residential building design are required to enable low-carbon dioxide operation to mitigate climate change. They must also face the reality of inevitable climate change and adopt climate change adaptation strategies to cope with future scenarios. However, any climate adaptation strategy for dwellings must also be cognisant of adapting occupant needs, influenced by ageing populations and new technologies. This paper presents concepts and priorities for changing how society designs residential buildings by designing for adaptation. A case study home is analysed in the context of its stated aims of low energy and adaptability. A post-occupancy evaluation of the house is presented, and future-proofing strategies are evaluated using climate projection data for future climate change scenarios.