How to classify the Oldest Old according to Health Status: A study of 1160 subjects belonging to 552 90+ Italian sibships characterised by familial longevity recruited within the GeHA EU project

The health status of the oldest old, the fastest increasing population segment worldwide, progressively becomes more heterogeneous, and this peculiarity represents a major obstacle to their classification. We compared the effectiveness of four previously proposed criteria (Franceschi et al., 2000; Evert et al., 2003; Gondo et al., 2006; Andersen-Ranberg et al., 2001) in 1160 phenotypically fully characterized Italian siblings of 90 years of age and older (90+, mean age: 93 years; age range: 90–106 years) belonging to 552 sib-ships, recruited in Northern, Central and Southern Italy within the EU-funded project GEHA, followed for a six-year-survival. Main findings were: (i) ‘‘healthy’’ subjects varied within a large range, i.e. 5.2% (Gondo), 8.7% (Evert), 17.7% (Franceschi), and 28.5% (Andersen-Ranberg); (ii) Central Italy subjects showed better health than those from Northern and Southern Italy; (iii) mortality risk was correlated with health status independently of geographical areas; and (iv) 90+ males, although fewer in number, were healthier than females, but with no survival advantage. In conclusion, we identified a modified version of Andersen-Ranberg criteria, based on the concomitant assessment of two basic domains (cognitive, SMMSE; physical, ADL), called ‘‘Simple Model of Functional Status’’ (SMFS), as the most effective proxy to distinguish healthy from not-healthy subjects. This model showed that health status was correlated within sib-ships, suggesting a familial/genetic component.

Field-Isolated Genotypes of Mycobacterium bovis Vary in Virulence and Influence Case Pathology but Do Not Affect Outbreak Size

Strains of many infectious agents differ in fundamental epidemiological parameters including transmissibility, virulence and pathology. We investigated whether genotypes of Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis, bTB) differ significantly in transmissibility and virulence, combining data from a nine-year survey of the genetic structure of the M. bovis population in Northern Ireland with detailed records of the cattle population during the same period. We used the size of herd breakdowns as a proxy measure of transmissibility and the proportion of skin test positive animals (reactors) that were visibly lesioned as a measure of virulence. Average breakdown size increased with herd size and varied depending on the manner of detection (routine herd testing or tracing of infectious contacts) but we found no significant variation among M. bovis genotypes in breakdown size once these factors had been accounted for. However breakdowns due to some genotypes had a greater proportion of lesioned reactors than others, indicating that there may be variation in virulence among genotypes. These findings indicate that the current bTB control programme may be detecting infected herds sufficiently quickly so that differences in virulence are not manifested in terms of outbreak sizes. We also investigated whether pathology of infected cattle varied according to M. bovis genotype, analysing the distribution of lesions recorded at post mortem inspection. We concentrated on the proportion of cases lesioned in the lower respiratory tract, which can indicate the relative importance of the respiratory and alimentary routes of infection. The distribution of lesions varied among genotypes and with cattle age and there were also subtle differences among breeds. Age and breed differences may be related to differences in susceptibility and husbandry, but reasons for variation in lesion distribution among genotypes require further investigation. © 2013 Wright et al.

Hydroclimatic changes during the 8.2 ka event inferred from Irish subfossil pines

A significant cold event, derived from the Greenland ice cores, took place between 8200 and 8000 cal. BP. Modeling of the event suggests that higher northern latitudes would have experienced considerable decreases in precipitation and that Ireland would have witnessed one of the greatest depressions. However, no well-dated proxy record exists from the British Isles to test the model results. Here we present independent evidence for a phase of major pine recruitment on Irish bogs at around 8150 cal. BP. Dendrochronological dating of subfossil trees from three sites reveal synchronicity in germination across the region, indicative of a regional forcing, and allows for high-precision radiocarbon based dates. The inner-rings of 40% of all samples from the north of Ireland dating to the period 8,500-7,500 cal. BP fall within a 25-year window. The concurrent colonization of pine on peatland is interpreted as drier conditions in the region and provide the first substantive proxy data in support of a significant hydrological change in the north of Ireland accompanying the 8.2 ka event. Our results also indicate that the apparent temporal asynchrony between anomalies in proxy records at the time could be a result of differences in dating methods.

Hydroclimatic changes during the 8.2 ka event revealed by Irish pines

A pivotal cold event, deduced from the Greenland ice cores, took place between 8200 and 8000 cal. BP. Modelling of this climatic episode suggests that higher northern latitudes would have also experienced substantial reduction in rainfall and that Ireland would have observed a notable decline. No well-dated proxy record exists from the British Isles to test the model results. We present significant independent data for a phase of increased Scots pine initiation on Irish bogs at around 8150 cal. BP. Dendrochronological dating of sub-fossil Scots pine trees from three locations reveals synchronicity in germination across the area, indicative of a regional forcing, and allows for high-precision radiocarbon based dates. The starting rings of 40% of all samples from the north of Ireland dating to the period 8500-7500 cal. BP fall within a period of 25 years. The present colonisation model of Scots pine on peatland is interpreted as increasing drier conditions in the region and provides the first meaningful proxy data in support of a significant hydrological change in the north of Ireland accompanying the 8.2 ka event. The dating uncertainties associated with the Irish Scots pine record and the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) do not allow for any overlap between the two. The results indicate that the discrepancy could be a result of dating inaccuracy that could have affected analysis of prior proxy alignments.

A Late Pleistocene record of climate and environmental change from the northern and southern Kelabit Highlands of Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo

A late Pleistocene vegetation record is presented, using multi-proxy analysis from three palaeochannels in the northern (Bario) and southern (Pa'Dalih) Kelabit Highlands of Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo. Before 50 000 cal a BP and until approximate to 47 700 cal a BP [marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3)], two of the sites were probably being influenced by energetic fluvial deposition, possibly associated with strong seasonality. Fluvial activity declines between 47 700 and 30 000 cal a BP (MIS3), and may be associated with a reduction in seasonality with overall stability in precipitation. The pollen record between 47 700 and 30 000 cal a BP generally shows much higher representation of upper-montane taxa compared with the Holocene, indicating often significantly reduced temperatures. After 35 000-30 000 cal a BP and until the mid-Holocene, hiatuses appear in two of the records, which could be linked to fluvial down-cutting during the late/mid Holocene. Despite the jump in ages, a pronounced representation of Ericaceae and upper-montane taxa, represented both at Bario and at Pa'Dalih, corresponds to a further lowering of temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum (MIS2). Thick charcoal bands in the PDH 210 record also suggest periods of extreme aridity between 30 200 and 12 700 cal a BP. This is followed by energetic fluvial deposition of sands and gravels, and may reflect a significant increase in seasonality.

Fabricated or Induced Illness in Children: A Narrative Review of the Literature

Although child maltreatment due to abuse or neglect is pervasive within our society, less
is known about fabricated or induced illness by carers (FII), which is considered to be a
rare form of child abuse. FII occurs when a caregiver (in 93% of cases, the mother)
misrepresents the child as ill either by fabricating, or much more rarely, producing
symptoms and then presenting the child for medical care, disclaiming knowledge of the
cause of the problem. The growing body of literature on FII reflects the lack of clarity
amongst professionals as to what constitutes FII, the difficulties involved in diagnosis,
and the lack of research into psychotherapeutic intervention with perpetrators. This lack
of clarity further complicates the identification, management and treatment of children
suffering from FII and may result in many cases going undetected, with potentially lifethreatening
consequences for children. It has been suggested that there is a national
under-reporting of fabricated or induced illness. In practice these cases are encountered
more frequently due to the chronic nature of the presentations, the large number of
professionals who may be involved and the broad spectrum including milder cases that
may not all require a formal child protection response. Diagnosis of fabricated disease
can be especially difficult, because the reported signs and symptoms cannot be confirmed
(when they are being exaggerated or imagined) or may be inconsistent (when they are
induced or fabricated). This paper highlights and discusses the controversies and
complexities of this condition, the risks to the child and how it affects children; the
paucity of systematic research regarding what motivates mothers to harm their children
by means of illness falsification; how the condition should be managed and treated for
both mother and child; and implications for policy and practice.

Predicting the predatory impacts of the “demon shrimp” Dikerogammarus haemobaphes, on native and previously introduced species

Biological invasions continue to exert pressure on ecosystems worldwide and we thus require methods that can help understand and predict the impacts of invasive species, on both native species and previously established invaders. Comparing laboratory derived functional responses among invasive and native predators has emerged as one such method, providing a robust proxy for field impacts. We used this method to examine the likely impacts of the Ponto–Caspian amphipod Dikerogammarus haemobaphes, known as the “demon shrimp”, a little investigated invader in European freshwaters that has recently established in the British Isles. We compared the functional responses on two prey species of D. haemobaphes with two other amphipod species: Dikerogammarus villosus, a congeneric invasive with well-documented impacts on macro-invertebrate communities and a native amphipod, Gammarus pulex. Prey species were native Chironomus sp. and the invasive Chelicorophium curvispinum, a tube-building amphipod also originating from the Ponto–Caspian region. D. villosus showed higher Type II functional responses towards both prey species than did D. haemobaphes and G. pulex, with the latter two predators exhibiting similar impacts on the native prey. However, D. haemobaphes had higher functional responses towards the invasive C. curvispinum than did G. pulex, both when prey individuals were tubeless and resident in their protective mud tubes. Thus, we demonstrate that functionally equivalent invasive congeners can show significantly different impacts on prey, regardless of shared evolutionary history. We also show that some predatory invaders can have impacts on native prey equivalent to native predator impacts, but that they can also exert significant impacts on previously introduced prey. We discuss the importance of invasion history and prey identity when attempting to understand and predict the impacts of new invaders.

Synchronous records of pCO2 and Δ14C suggest rapid, ocean-derived pCO2 fluctuations at the onset of Younger Dryas

Just before the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold event, several stomatal proxy-based pCO2 records have shown a sharp increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2) of between ca 50 and 100 ppm, followed by a rapid decrease of similar or even larger magnitude. Here we compare one of these records, a high-resolution pCO2 record from southern Sweden, with the IntCal13 record of radiocarbon (Δ14C). The two records show broadly synchronous fluctuations at the YD onset. Specifically, the IntCal13 record documents decreasing Δ14C just before the YD onset when pCO2 peaks, consistent with a source of “old” CO2 from the deep ocean. We propose that this fluctuation occurred due to a major ocean flushing event. The cause of the flushing event remains speculative but could be related to the hypothesis of the glacial ocean as a thermobaric capacitor. We confirm that the earth system can produce such large multi-decadal timescale fluctuations in pCO2 through simulating an artificial ocean flushing event with the GENIE Earth System Model. We suggest that sharp transitions of pCO2 may have remained undetected so far in ice cores due to inter-firn gas exchange and time-averaging. The stomatal proxy record is a powerful complement to the ice core records for the study of rapid climate change.

Poverty Trap and Educational Shock: Evidence from Missionary Fields

Low growth equilibria with low investment in human capital generally tend to
persist till an external shock affects the economy. In this paper we use data on
Christian missions to proxy a long-lasting educational shock in Africa. We estimate
the effect of this shock on the quality of children which we proxy using the rate of
underweight children. Consistent with the economic theory we find that the quality
of children significantly rises with the exposure to this shock and this indirect effect
accounts to almost 4 percent in terms of GDP for districts with the maximal exposure

Transatlantic distribution of the Alaskan White River Ash

Volcanic ash layers preserved within the geologic record represent precise time markers that correlate disparate depositional environments and enable the investigation of synchronous and/or asynchronous behaviors in Earth system and archaeological sciences. However, it is generally assumed that only exceptionally powerful events, such as supereruptions (≥450 km3 of ejecta as dense-rock equivalent; recurrence interval of ∼105 yr), distribute ash broadly enough to have an impact on human society, or allow us to address geologic, climatic, and cultural questions on an intercontinental scale. Here we use geochemical, age, and morphological evidence to show that the Alaskan White River Ash (eastern lobe; A.D. 833–850) correlates to the “AD860B” ash (A.D. 846–848) found in Greenland and northern Europe. These occurrences represent the distribution of an ash over 7000 km, linking marine, terrestrial, and ice-core records. Our results indicate that tephra from more moderate-size eruptions, with recurrence intervals of ∼100 yr, can have substantially greater distributions than previously thought, with direct implications for volcanic dispersal studies, correlation of widely distributed proxy records, and volcanic hazard assessment.

Predation in the marine intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus Leach: implications of inter- and intra-individual variation

Studies of competition, predator–prey dynamics and food webs typically consider conspecifics as equal, however, individuals from the same population that are seemingly identical can show considerable variation with regards to a number of processes. Such phenomena may be demonstrated in terms of diet, and the quantities and types of resources that are consumed are commonly considered. The marine amphipod Echinogammarus marinus, a recently demonstrated predator on intertidal rocky shores, has been shown to consume a wide range of food types but it is unknown how this may vary between individuals. Here, we investigated the variation that occurs both among and within individuals of a population of E. marinus with respect to the mean numbers consumed of a common prey item, the isopod Jaera nordmanni. First, by comparing the length of starvation times, used as a proxy for hunger level, individuals maintained without food for up to 24 h consumed significantly less prey during feeding trials than those starved for 48 h and longer. The degree of inter-individual variation within each starvation period was also found to differ, with greater variation among individuals starved for shorter periods of time than those starved for longer time periods. Secondly, we tested whether individual amphipods tracked over time consumed consistently similar numbers of prey or whether they showed intra-individual variation, and if so, to what degree. We found that the numbers of prey consumed per individual could be predicted in the short-term between consecutive feeding trials, however over the long-term this relationship broke down. These results are discussed with respect to potential physiological and behavioural mechanisms, as well as the implications that such variation may have for stability of prey populations in the field.

Tephrochronology and the extended intimate (integration of ice‐core, marine and terrestrial records) event stratigraphy 8-128kab2k

The comparison of palaeoclimate records on their own independent timescales is central to the work of the INTIMATE (INTegrating Ice core, MArine and TErrestrial records) network. For the North Atlantic region, an event stratigraphy has been established from the high-precision Greenland ice-core records and the integrated GICC05 chronology. This stratotype provides a palaeoclimate signal to which the timing and nature of palaeoenvironmental change recorded in marine and terrestrial archives can be compared. To facilitate this wider comparison, without assuming synchroneity of climatic change/proxy response, INTIMATE has also focussed on the development of tools to achieve this. In particular the use of time-parallel marker horizons e.g. tephra layers (volcanic ash). Coupled with the recent temporal extension of the Greenland stratotype, as part of this special issue, we present an updated INTIMATE event stratigraphy highlighting key tephra horizons used for correlation across Europe and the North Atlantic. We discuss the advantages of such an approach, and the key challenges for the further integration of terrestrial palaeoenvironmental records with those from ice cores and the marine realm.

Just a matter of time: Fungi and roots significantly and rapidly aggregate soil over four decades along the Tagliamento River, NE Italy

Fluvial islands are emergent landforms which form at the interface between the permanently inundated areas of the river channel and the more stable areas of the floodplain as a result of interactions between physical river processes, wood and riparian vegetation. These highly dynamical systems are ideal to study soil structure development in the short to medium term, a process in which soil biota and plants play a substantial role. We investigated soil structure development on islands along a 40 year chronosequence within a 3 km island-braided reach of the Tagliamento River, Northeastern Italy. We used several parameters to capture different aspects of the soil structure, and measured biotic (e.g., fungal and plant root parameters) and abiotic (e.g. organic carbon) factors expected to determine the structure. We estimated models relating soil structure to its determinants, and, in order to confer statistical robustness to our results, we explicitly took into account spatial autocorrelation, which is present due to the space for time substitution inherent in the study of chronosequences and may have confounded results of previous studies. We found that, despite the eroding forces from the hydrological and geomorphological dynamics to which the system is subject, all soil structure variables significantly, and in some case greatly increased with site age. We interpret this as a macroscopic proxy for the major direct and indirect binding effects exerted by root variables and extraradical hyphae of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). Key soil structure parameters such as percentage of water stable aggregates (WSA) can double from the time the island landform is initiated (mean WSA = 30%) to the full 40 years (mean WSA = 64%) covered by our chronosequence. The study demonstrates the fundamental role of soil biota and plant roots in aggregating soils even in a system in which intense short to medium term physical disturbances are common.

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

Connectivity and Physical Activity: Using Footpath Networks to Measure the Walkability of Built Environments

There is now a strong body of research that suggests that the form of the built environment can influence levels of physical activity, leading to an increasing interest in incorporating health objectives into spatial planning and regeneration policies and projects. There have been a number of strands to this research, one of which has sought to develop “objective” measurements of the built environment using Geographic Information Science (GIS) involving measures of connectivity and proximity to compare the relative “walkability” of different neighbourhoods. The development of the “walkability index” (e.g. Leslie et al 2007, Frank et al 2010) has become a popular indicator of spatial distribution of those features of the built environment that are considered to have the greatest positive influence on levels of physical activity. The success of this measure is built on its ability to succinctly capture built environment correlates of physical activity using routinely available spatial data, which includes using road centre lines as a basis of a proxy for connectivity.

This paper discusses two key aspects of the walkability index. First, it follows the suggestion of Chin et al (2008) that the use of a footpath network (where available), rather than road centre lines, may be far more effective in evaluating walkability. This may be particularly important for assessing changes in walkability arising from pedestrian-focused infrastructure projects, such as greenways. Second, the paper explores the implication of this for how connectivity can be measured. The paper takes six different measures of connectivity and first analyses the relationships between them and then tests their correlation with actual levels of physical activity of local residents in Belfast, Northern Ireland. The analysis finds that the best measurements appear to be intersection density and metric reach and uses this finding to discuss the implications of this for developing tools that may better support decision-making in spatial planning.