Price Discovery in the Dual-Platform US Treasury Market

Inter-dealer trading in US Treasury securities is almost equally divided between two electronic trading platforms that have only slight differences in terms of their relative liquidity and transparency. BrokerTec is more active in the trading of 2-, 5-, and 10-year T-notes while eSpeed has more active trading in the 30-year bond. Over the period studied, eSpeed provides a more pre-trade transparent platform than BrokerTec. We examine the contribution to ‘price discovery’ of activity in the two platforms using high frequency data. We find that price discovery does not derive equally from the two platforms and that the shares vary across term to maturity. This can be traced to differential trading activities and transparency of the two platforms.

Genetic Evidence for a Causal Role of Obesity in Diabetic Kidney Disease

Obesity has been posited as an independent risk factor for diabetic kidney disease (DKD), but establishing causality from observational data is problematic. We aimed to test whether obesity is causally related to DKD using Mendelian randomization, which exploits the random assortment of genes during meiosis. In 6,049 subjects with type 1 diabetes, we used a weighted genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 32 validated BMI loci as an instrument to test the relationship of BMI with macroalbuminuria, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), or DKD defined as presence of macroalbuminuria or ESRD. We compared these results with cross-sectional and longitudinal observational associations. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated a U-shaped relationship of BMI with development of macroalbuminuria, ESRD, or DKD over time. Cross-sectional observational analysis showed no association with overall DKD, higher odds of macroalbuminuria (for every 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI, odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07, P < 0.001), and lower odds of ESRD (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.97, P < 0.001). Mendelian randomization analysis showed a 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI conferring an increased risk in macroalbuminuria (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.11-1.45, P = 0.001), ESRD (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.20-1.72, P < 0.001), and DKD (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.17-1.51, P < 0.001). Our results provide genetic evidence for a causal link between obesity and DKD in type 1 diabetes. As obesity prevalence rises, this finding predicts an increase in DKD prevalence unless intervention should occur.

Discovery of Main-Belt Comet P/2006 VW139 by Pan-STARRS1

We describe the discovery of comet-like activity in main-belt asteroid (300163) 2006 VW139 (later re-designated as Comet P/2006 VW139) by Pan-STARRS1. We also detail follow-up photometric, spectroscopic, and dynamical analyses of the object.

Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors.

PICan: An integromics framework for dynamic cancer biomarker discovery

Modern cancer research on prognostic and predictive biomarkers demands the integration of established and emerging high-throughput technologies. However, these data are meaningless unless carefully integrated with patient clinical outcome and epidemiological information. Integrated datasets hold the key to discovering new biomarkers and therapeutic targets in cancer. We have developed a novel approach and set of methods for integrating and interrogating phenomic, genomic and clinical data sets to facilitate cancer biomarker discovery and patient stratification. Applied to a known paradigm, the biological and clinical relevance of TP53, PICan was able to recapitulate the known biomarker status and prognostic significance at a DNA, RNA and protein levels.

Machine learning for transient discovery in Pan-STARRS1 difference imaging

Efficient identification and follow-up of astronomical transients is hindered by the need for humans to manually select promising candidates from data streams that contain many false positives. These artefacts arise in the difference images that are produced by most major ground-based time-domain surveys with large format CCD cameras. This dependence on humans to reject bogus detections is unsustainable for next generation all-sky surveys and significant effort is now being invested to solve the problem computationally. In this paper, we explore a simple machine learning approach to real-bogus classification by constructing a training set from the image data of similar to 32 000 real astrophysical transients and bogus detections from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey. We derive our feature representation from the pixel intensity values of a 20 x 20 pixel stamp around the centre of the candidates. This differs from previous work in that it works directly on the pixels rather than catalogued domain knowledge for feature design or selection. Three machine learning algorithms are trained (artificial neural networks, support vector machines and random forests) and their performances are tested on a held-out subset of 25 per cent of the training data. We find the best results from the random forest classifier and demonstrate that by accepting a false positive rate of 1 per cent, the classifier initially suggests a missed detection rate of around 10 per cent. However, we also find that a combination of bright star variability, nuclear transients and uncertainty in human labelling means that our best estimate of the missed detection rate is approximately 6 per cent.

Children's use of interventions to learn causal structure

Children aged between 5 and 8 years freely intervened on a three-variable causal system, with their task being to discover whether it was a common-cause structure or one of two causal chains. From 6-7 years, children were able to use information from their interventions to correctly disambiguate the structure of a causal chain. We used a Bayesian model to examine children’s interventions on the system; this showed that with development children became more efficient in producing the interventions needed to disambiguate the causal structure and that the quality of interventions, as measured by their informativeness, improved developmentally. The latter measure was a significant predictor of children’s correct inferences about the causal structure. A second experiment showed that levels of performance were not reduced in a task in which children did not select and carry out interventions themselves, indicating no advantage for self-directed learning. However, children’s performance was not related to intervention quality in these circumstances, suggesting that children learn in a different way when they carry out interventions themselves.

PS1-10afx at z = 1.388: Pan-STARRS1 Discovery of a New Type of Superluminous Supernova

We present the Pan-STARRS1 discovery of PS1-10afx, a unique hydrogen-deficient superluminous supernova (SLSN) at redshift z = 1.388. The light curve peaked at z P1 = 21.7 mag, making PS1-10afx comparable to the most luminous known SNe, with Mu = -22.3 mag. Our extensive optical and near-infrared observations indicate that the bolometric light curve of PS1-10afx rose on the unusually fast timescale of ~12 days to the extraordinary peak luminosity of 4.1 × 1044 erg s-1 (M bol = -22.8 mag) and subsequently faded rapidly. Equally important, the spectral energy distribution is unusually red for an SLSN, with a color temperature of ~6800 K near maximum light, in contrast to previous hydrogen-poor SLSNe, which are bright in the ultraviolet (UV). The spectra more closely resemble those of a normal SN Ic than any known SLSN, with a photospheric velocity of ~11, 000 km s-1 and evidence for line blanketing in the rest-frame UV. Despite the fast rise, these parameters imply a very large emitting radius (gsim 5 × 1015 cm). We demonstrate that no existing theoretical model can satisfactorily explain this combination of properties: (1) a nickel-powered light curve cannot match the combination of high peak luminosity with the fast timescale; (2) models powered by the spindown energy of a rapidly rotating magnetar predict significantly hotter and faster ejecta; and (3) models invoking shock breakout through a dense circumstellar medium cannot explain the observed spectra or color evolution. The host galaxy is well detected in pre-explosion imaging with a luminosity near L*, a star formation rate of ~15 M ⊙ yr-1, and is fairly massive (~2 × 1010 M ⊙), with a stellar population age of ~108 yr, also in contrast to the young dwarf hosts of known hydrogen-poor SLSNe. PS1-10afx is distinct from known examples of SLSNe in its spectra, colors, light-curve shape, and host galaxy properties, suggesting that it resulted from a different channel than other hydrogen-poor SLSNe.

Gene expression and epigenetic discovery screen reveal methylation of SFRP2 in prostate cancer

Aberrant activation of Wnts is common in human cancers, including prostate. Hypermethylation associated transcriptional silencing of Wnt antagonist genes SFRPs (Secreted Frizzled-Related Proteins) is a frequent oncogenic event. The significance of this is not known in prostate cancer. The objectives of our study were to (i) profile Wnt signaling related gene expression and (ii) investigate methylation of Wnt antagonist genes in prostate cancer. Using TaqMan Low Density Arrays, we identified 15 Wnt signaling related genes with significantly altered expression in prostate cancer; the majority of which were upregulated in tumors. Notably, histologically benign tissue from men with prostate cancer appeared more similar to tumor (r = 0.76) than to benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH; r = 0.57, p < 0.001). Overall, the expression profile was highly similar between tumors of high (≥ 7) and low (≤ 6) Gleason scores. Pharmacological demethylation of PC-3 cells with 5-Aza-CdR reactivated 39 genes (≥ 2-fold); 40% of which inhibit Wnt signaling. Methylation frequencies in prostate cancer were 10% (2/20) (SFRP1), 64.86% (48/74) (SFRP2), 0% (0/20) (SFRP4) and 60% (12/20) (SFRP5). SFRP2 methylation was detected at significantly lower frequencies in high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (HGPIN; 30%, (6/20), p = 0.0096), tumor adjacent benign areas (8.82%, (7/69), p < 0.0001) and BPH (11.43% (4/35), p < 0.0001). The quantitative level of SFRP2 methylation (normalized index of methylation) was also significantly higher in tumors (116) than in the other samples (HGPIN = 7.45, HB = 0.47, and BPH = 0.12). We show that SFRP2 hypermethylation is a common event in prostate cancer. SFRP2 methylation in combination with other epigenetic markers may be a useful biomarker of prostate cancer.

Discovery of DNA hypermethylation using a DHPLC screening strategy

Promoter hypermethylation is recognized as a hallmark of human cancer, in addition to conventional mechanisms of gene inactivation. As such, many new technologies have been developed over the past two decades to uncover novel targets of methylation and decipher complex epigenetic patterns. However, many of these are either labor intensive or provide limited data, confined to oligonucleotide hybridization sequences or enzyme cleavage sites and cannot be easily applied to screening large sets of sequences or samples. We present an application of denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC), which relies on bisulfite modification of genomic DNA, for methylation screening. We validated DHPLC as a methylation screening tool using GSTP1, a well known target of methylation in prostate cancer. We developed an in silico approach to identify potential targets of promoter hypermethylation in prostate cancer. Using DHPLC, we screened two of these targets LGALS3 and SMAD4 for methylation. We show that DHPLC has an application as a fast, sensitive, quantitative and cost effective method for screening novel targets or DNA samples for DNA methylation.

Integration of copy number and transcriptomics provides risk stratification in prostate cancer: A discovery and validation cohort study

BACKGROUND: Understanding the heterogeneous genotypes and phenotypes of prostate cancer is fundamental to improving the way we treat this disease. As yet, there are no validated descriptions of prostate cancer subgroups derived from integrated genomics linked with clinical outcome.

METHODS: In a study of 482 tumour, benign and germline samples from 259 men with primary prostate cancer, we used integrative analysis of copy number alterations (CNA) and array transcriptomics to identify genomic loci that affect expression levels of mRNA in an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) approach, to stratify patients into subgroups that we then associated with future clinical behaviour, and compared with either CNA or transcriptomics alone.

FINDINGS: We identified five separate patient subgroups with distinct genomic alterations and expression profiles based on 100 discriminating genes in our separate discovery and validation sets of 125 and 103 men. These subgroups were able to consistently predict biochemical relapse (p = 0.0017 and p = 0.016 respectively) and were further validated in a third cohort with long-term follow-up (p = 0.027). We show the relative contributions of gene expression and copy number data on phenotype, and demonstrate the improved power gained from integrative analyses. We confirm alterations in six genes previously associated with prostate cancer (MAP3K7, MELK, RCBTB2, ELAC2, TPD52, ZBTB4), and also identify 94 genes not previously linked to prostate cancer progression that would not have been detected using either transcript or copy number data alone. We confirm a number of previously published molecular changes associated with high risk disease, including MYC amplification, and NKX3-1, RB1 and PTEN deletions, as well as over-expression of PCA3 and AMACR, and loss of MSMB in tumour tissue. A subset of the 100 genes outperforms established clinical predictors of poor prognosis (PSA, Gleason score), as well as previously published gene signatures (p = 0.0001). We further show how our molecular profiles can be used for the early detection of aggressive cases in a clinical setting, and inform treatment decisions.

INTERPRETATION: For the first time in prostate cancer this study demonstrates the importance of integrated genomic analyses incorporating both benign and tumour tissue data in identifying molecular alterations leading to the generation of robust gene sets that are predictive of clinical outcome in independent patient cohorts.

Moral asymmetries in judgments of agency withstand ludicrous causal deviance

Americans have been shown to attribute greater intentionality to immoral than to amoral actions in cases of causal deviance, that is, cases where a goal is satisfied in a way that deviates from initially planned means (e.g., a gunman wants to hit a target and his hand slips, but the bullet ricochets off a rock into the target). However, past research has yet to assess whether this asymmetry persists in cases of extreme causal deviance. Here, we manipulated the level of mild to extreme causal deviance of an immoral versus amoral act. The asymmetry in attributions of intentionality was observed at all but the
most extreme level of causal deviance, and, as we hypothesized, was mediated by attributions of Blame/credit and judgments of action performance. These findings are discussed as they support a multiple-concepts interpretation of the asymmetry, wherein blame renders a naïve concept of intentional action (the outcome matches the intention) more salient than a composite concept (the outcome matches the intention and was brought about by planned means), and in terms of their implications for cross-cultural research on judgments of agency.

SN 2011dh: DISCOVERY OF A TYPE IIb SUPERNOVA FROM A COMPACT PROGENITOR IN THE NEARBY GALAXY M51

On 2011 May 31 UT a supernova (SN) exploded in the nearby galaxy M51 (the Whirlpool Galaxy). We discovered this event using small telescopes equipped with CCD cameras and also detected it with the Palomar Transient Factory survey, rapidly confirming it to be a Type II SN. Here, we present multi-color ultraviolet through infrared photometry which is used to calculate the bolometric luminosity and a series of spectra. Our early-time observations indicate that SN 2011dh resulted from the explosion of a relatively compact progenitor star. Rapid shock-breakout cooling leads to relatively low temperatures in early-time spectra, compared to explosions of red supergiant stars, as well as a rapid early light curve decline. Optical spectra of SN 2011dh are dominated by H lines out to day 10 after explosion, after which He I lines develop. This SN is likely a member of the cIIb (compact IIb) class, with progenitor radius larger than that of SN 2008ax and smaller than the eIIb (extended IIb) SN 1993J progenitor. Our data imply that the object identified in pre-explosion Hubble Space Telescope images at the SN location is possibly a companion to the progenitor or a blended source, and not the progenitor star itself, as its radius (~1013 cm) would be highly inconsistent with constraints from our post-explosion spectra.