Chemometric techniques in multivariate statistical modelling of process plant

The techniques of principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) are introduced from the point of view of providing a multivariate statistical method for modelling process plants. The advantages and limitations of PCA and PLS are discussed from the perspective of the type of data and problems that might be encountered in this application area. These concepts are exemplified by two case studies dealing first with data from a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) simulation and second a literature source describing a low-density polyethylene (LDPE) reactor simulation.

A statistical process control approach for automatic anti-islanding detection using synchrophasors

Anti-islanding protection is becoming increasingly important due to the rapid installation of distributed generation from renewable resources like wind, tidal and wave, solar PV, bio-fuels, as well as from other resources like diesel. Unintentional islanding presents a potential risk for damaging utility plants and equipment connected from the demand side, as well as to public and personnel in utility plants. This paper investigates automatic islanding detection. This is achieved by deploying a statistical process control approach for fault detection with the real-time data acquired through a wide area measurement system, which is based on Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) technology. In particular, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used to project the data into principal component subspace and residual space, and two statistics are used to detect the occurrence of fault. Then a fault reconstruction method is used to identify the fault and its development over time. The proposed scheme has been used in a real system and the results have confirmed that the proposed method can correctly identify the fault and islanding site.

When does information about causal structure improve statistical reasoning?

Base rate neglect on the mammography problem can be overcome by explicitly presenting a causal basis for the typically vague false-positive statistic. One account of this causal facilitation effect is that people make probabilistic judgements over intuitive causal models parameterized with the evidence in the problem. Poorly defined or difficult-to-map evidence interferes with this process, leading to errors in statistical reasoning. To assess whether the construction of parameterized causal representations is an intuitive or deliberative process, in Experiment 1 we combined a secondary load paradigm with manipulations of the presence or absence of an alternative cause in typical statistical reasoning problems. We found limited effects of a secondary load, no evidence that information about an alternative cause improves statistical reasoning, but some evidence that it reduces base rate neglect errors. In Experiments 2 and 3 where we did not impose a load, we observed causal facilitation effects. The amount of Bayesian responding in the causal conditions was impervious to the presence of a load (Experiment 1) and to the precise statistical information that was presented (Experiment 3). However, we found less Bayesian responding in the causal condition than previously reported. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings and the suggestion that there may be population effects in the accuracy of statistical reasoning.