The statistical significance of randomized controlled trial results is frequently fragile: A case for a Fragility Index

Objectives

A P-value <0.05 is one metric used to evaluate the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). We wondered how often statistically significant results in RCTs may be lost with small changes in the numbers of outcomes.

Study Design and Setting

A review of RCTs in high-impact medical journals that reported a statistically significant result for at least one dichotomous or time-to-event outcome in the abstract. In the group with the smallest number of events, we changed the status of patients without an event to an event until the P-value exceeded 0.05. We labeled this number the Fragility Index; smaller numbers indicated a more fragile result.

Results

The 399 eligible trials had a median sample size of 682 patients (range: 15-112,604) and a median of 112 events (range: 8-5,142); 53% reported a P-value <0.01. The median Fragility Index was 8 (range: 0-109); 25% had a Fragility Index of 3 or less. In 53% of trials, the Fragility Index was less than the number of patients lost to follow-up.

Conclusion

The statistically significant results of many RCTs hinge on small numbers of events. The Fragility Index complements the P-value and helps identify less robust results. 

Development of a novel continuous statistical modelling technique for detecting the adulteration of extra virgin olive oil with hazelnut oil by using spectroscopic data

The adulteration of extra virgin olive oil with other vegetable oils is a certain problem with economic and health consequences. Current official methods have been proved insufficient to detect such adulterations. One of the most concerning and undetectable adulterations with other vegetable oils is the addition of hazelnut oil. The main objective of this work was to develop a novel dimensionality reduction technique able to model oil mixtures as a part of an integrated pattern recognition solution. This final solution attempts to identify hazelnut oil adulterants in extra virgin olive oil at low percentages based on spectroscopic chemical fingerprints. The proposed Continuous Locality Preserving Projections (CLPP) technique allows the modelling of the continuous nature of the produced in house admixtures as data series instead of discrete points. This methodology has potential to be extended to other mixtures and adulterations of food products. The maintenance of the continuous structure of the data manifold lets the better visualization of this examined classification problem and facilitates a more accurate utilisation of the manifold for detecting the adulterants.

Toward Characterization Of The Type IIP Supernova Progenitor Population: A Statistical Sample Of Light Curves From Pan-STARRS1

In recent years, wide-field sky surveys providing deep multi-band imaging have presented a new path for indirectly characterizing the progenitor populations of core-collapse supernovae (SN): systematic light curve studies. We assemble a set of 76 grizy-band Type IIP SN light curves from Pan-STARRS1, obtained over a constant survey program of 4 years and classified using both spectroscopy and machine learning-based photometric techniques. We develop and apply a new Bayesian model for the full multi-band evolution of each light curve in the sample. We find no evidence of a sub-population of fast-declining explosions (historically referred to as "Type IIL" SNe). However, we identify a highly significant relation between the plateau phase decay rate and peak luminosity among our SNe IIP. These results argue in favor of a single parameter, likely determined by initial stellar mass, predominantly controlling the explosions of red supergiants. This relation could also be applied for supernova cosmology, offering a standardizable candle good to an intrinsic scatter of 0.2 mag. We compare each light curve to physical models from hydrodynamic simulations to estimate progenitor initial masses and other properties of the Pan-STARRS1 Type IIP SN sample. We show that correction of systematic discrepancies between modeled and observed SN IIP light curve properties and an expanded grid of progenitor properties, are needed to enable robust progenitor inferences from multi-band light curve samples of this kind. This work will serve as a pathfinder for photometric studies of core-collapse SNe to be conducted through future wide field transient searches.

Prognostic Impact of Monocyte Count at Presentation in Mantle Cell Lymphoma

Increased number of circulating monocytes at presentation has been recently associated with shorter survival in Hodgkin lymphoma, follicular lymphoma and diffuse large B cell lymphoma. This study aimed to assess the prognostic impact of the absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis in mantle cell lymphoma (MCL). From the series of MCL cases recorded on the databases of the Oncology Institute of Southern Switzerland in Bellinzona (Switzerland) and the Division of Haematology of the Amedeo Avogadro University of Eastern Piedmont in Novara (Italy), the AMC at diagnosis was available in 97 cases. Cox regression was used for both univariate and multivariate analysis. With a median follow up of 7 years, the 5-year overall survival (OS) was 29% for patients with AMC >500/ul and 62% for patients with AMC

Validation of non‑stationary precipitation series for site‑specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.