A methodology to analyse the impact of offshore wind forecasting error on electricity markets

Currently wind power is dominated by onshore wind farms in the British Isles, but both the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland have high renewable energy targets, expected to come mostly from wind power. However, as the demand for wind power grows to ensure security of energy supply, as a potentially cheaper alternative to fossil fuels and to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets offshore wind power will grow rapidly as the availability of suitable onshore sites decrease. However, wind is variable and stochastic by nature and thus difficult to schedule. In order to plan for these uncertainties market operators use wind forecasting tools, reserve plant and ancillary service agreements. Onshore wind power forecasting techniques have improved dramatically and continue to advance, but offshore wind power forecasting is more difficult due to limited datasets and knowledge. So as the amount of offshore wind power increases in the British Isles robust forecasting and planning techniques are even more critical. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of better offshore wind forecasting on the operation and management of the single wholesale electricity market in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland using PLEXOS for Power Systems. © 2013 IEEE.

A review of offshore wind power development in the United Kingdom

Currently wind power is dominated by onshore wind farms. However, as the demand for power grows driven by security of energy supply issues, dwindling fossil fuel supplies and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets, offshore wind power will develop rapidly because of the decline of viable onshore sites. The United Kingdom has a target of 21% renewable electricity by 2020 and this is expected to come mostly from wind power. Britain is the most active internationally in terms of offshore wind farm development with almost 48GW in some stage of development. In addition the Scottish Government, the Northern Ireland Executive and the Government of Ireland undertook the 'Irish-Scottish Links on Energy Study' (ISLES), which examined the feasibility of creating an offshore interconnected transmission network and subsea electricity grid based on renewable energy sources off the coast of western Scotland and the Irish Sea. The aim of this paper is to provide an appraisal of offshore wind power development with a focus on the United Kingdom. © 2013 IEEE.

Regional integration of biogas – developing an intersectoral research action plan for Northern Ireland

Bioenergy is a key component of the European Union long term energy strategy across all sectors, with a target contribution of up to 14% of the energy mix by 2020. It is estimated that there is the potential for 1TWh of primary energy from biogas per million persons in Europe, derived from agricultural by-products and waste. With an agricultural sector that accounts for 75% of land area and a large number of advanced engineering firms, Northern Ireland is a region with considerable potential for an integrated biogas industry. Northern Ireland is also heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels. Despite this, the industry is underdeveloped and there is a need for a collaborative approach from research, business and policy-makers across all sectors to optimise Northern Ireland’s abundant natural resources. ‘Developing Opportunities in Bio-Energy’ (i.e. Do Bioenergy) is a recently completed project that involved both academic and specialist industrial partners. The aim was to develop a biogas research action plan for 2020 to define priorities for intersectoral regional development, co-operation and knowledge transfer in the field of production and use of biogas. Consultations were held with regional stakeholders and working groups were established to compile supporting data, decide key objectives and implementation activities. Within the context of this study it was found that biogas from feedstocks including grass, agricultural slurry, household and industrial waste have the potential to contribute from 2.5% to 11% of Northern Ireland’s total energy consumption. The economics of on-farm production were assessed, along with potential markets and alternative uses for biogas in sectors such as transport, heat and electricity. Arising from this baseline data, a Do Bioenergy was developed. The plan sets out a strategic research agenda, and details priorities and targets for 2020. The challenge for Northern Ireland is how best to utilise the biogas – as electricity, heat or vehicle fuel and in what proportions. The research areas identified were: development of small scale solutions for biogas production and use; solutions for improved nutrient management; knowledge supporting and developing the integration of biogas into the rural economy; and future crops and bio-based products. The human resources and costs for the implementation were estimated as 80 person-years and £25 million respectively. It is also clear that the development of a robust bio-gas sector requires some reform of the regulatory regime, including a planning policy framework and a need to address social acceptance issues. The Action Plan was developed from a regional perspective but the results may be applicable to other regions in Europe and elsewhere. This paper presents the methodology, results and analysis, and discussion and key findings of the Do Bioenergy report for Northern Ireland.

Optimal Scheduling Methods to Integrate Plug-In Electric Vehicles with the Power System: A Review

The introduction of the Tesla in 2008 has demonstrated to the public of the potential of electric vehicles in terms of reducing fuel consumption and green-house gas from the transport sector. It has brought electric vehicles back into the spotlight worldwide at a moment when fossil fuel prices were reaching unexpected high due to increased demand and strong economic growth. The energy storage capabilities from of fleets of electric vehicles as well as the potentially random discharging and charging offers challenges to the grid in terms of operation and control. Optimal scheduling strategies are key to integrating large numbers of electric vehicles and the smart grid. In this paper, state-of-the-art optimization methods are reviewed on scheduling strategies for the grid integration with electric vehicles. The paper starts with a concise introduction to analytical charging strategies, followed by a review of a number of classical numerical optimization methods, including linear programming, non-linear programming, dynamic programming as well as some other means such as queuing theory. Meta-heuristic techniques are then discussed to deal with the complex, high-dimensional and multi-objective scheduling problem associated with stochastic charging and discharging of electric vehicles. Finally, future research directions are suggested.

Late Holocene sea-level fall and turn-off of reef flat carbonate production: Rethinking bucket fill and coral reef growth models

Relative sea-level rise has been a major factor driving the evolution of reef systems during the Holocene. Most models of reef evolution suggest that reefs preferentially grow vertically during rising sea level then laterally from windward to leeward, once the reef flat reaches sea level. Continuous lagoonal sedimentation ("bucket fill") and sand apron progradation eventually lead to reef systems with totally filled lagoons. Lagoonal infilling of One Tree Reef (southern Great Barrier Reef) through sand apron accretion was examined in the context of late Holocene relative sea-level change. This analysis was conducted using sedimentological and digital terrain data supported by 50 radiocarbon ages from fossil microatolls, buried patch reefs, foraminifera and shells in sediment cores, and recalibrated previously published radiocarbon ages. This data set challenges the conceptual model of geologically continuous sediment infill during the Holocene through sand apron accretion. Rapid sand apron accretion occurred between 6000 and 3000 calibrated yr before present B.P. (cal. yr B.P.); followed by only small amounts of sedimentation between 3000 cal. yr B.P. and present, with no significant sand apron accretion in the past 2 k.y. This hiatus in sediment infill coincides with a sea-level fall of similar to 1-1.3 m during the late Holocene (ca. 2000 cal. yr B.P.), which would have caused the turn-off of highly productive live coral growth on the reef flats currently dominated by less productive rubble and algal flats, resulting in a reduced sediment input to back-reef environments and the cessation in sand apron accretion. Given that relative sea-level variations of similar to 1 m were common throughout the Holocene, we suggest that this mode of sand apron development and carbonate production is applicable to most reef systems.

Influence of tropical easterlies in southern Africa's winter rainfall zone during the Holocene

South Africa's southwestern Cape occupies a critical transition zone between Southern Hemisphere temperate (winter) and tropical (summer) moisture-bearing systems. In the recent geological past, it has been proposed that the relative influence of these systems may have changed substantially, but little reliable evidence regarding regional hydroclimates and rainfall seasonality exists to refine or substantiate the understanding of long-term dynamics. In this paper we present a mid-to late Holocene multi-proxy record of environmental change from a rock hyrax midden from Katbakkies Pass, located along the modern boundary between the winter and summer rainfall zones. Derived from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, fossil pollen and microcharcoal, these data provide a high resolution record of changes in humidity, and insight into changes in rainfall seasonality. Whereas previous work concluded that the site had generally experienced only subtle environmental change during the Holocene, our records indicate that significant, abrupt changes have occurred in the region over the last 7000 years. Contrary to expectations based on the site's location, these data indicate that the primary determinant of changes in humidity is summer rather than winter rainfall variability, and its influence on drought season intensity and/or length. These findings are consistent with independent records of upwelling along the southern and western coasts, which indicate that periods of increased humidity are related to increased tropical easterly flow. This substantially refines our understanding of the nature of temperate and tropical circulation system dynamics in SW Africa, and how changes in their relative dominance have impacted regional environments during the Holocene. 

Holocene vegetation change in relation to fire and volcanic events in Jilin, Northeastern China

Volatiles erupted from large-scale explosive volcanic activities have a significant impact on climate and environmental changes. As an important ecological factor, the occurrence of fire is affected by vegetation cover, and fire can feed back into both vegetation and climatic change. The causes of fire events are diverse; and can include volcanic eruptions. The amount of charcoal in sediment sequences is related to the frequency and intensity of fire, and hence under good preservation conditions fire history can be reconstructed from fossil charcoal abundance. Until now, little research on the role of fire has been carried out in northeastern China. In this study, through research on charcoal and tephra shards from Gushantun and Hanlongwan, Holocene vegetation change in relation to fire and volcanic events in Jilin, Northeastern China, was investigated. Where tephra shards are present in Gushantun it is associated with low level of both conifers and broadleaved trees, and is also associated with a pronounced charcoal peak. This suggests forest cover was greatly reduced from a fire caused by an eruption of the Tianchi volcano. We also detected one tephra layer in Hanlongwan, which also has the almost same depth with low level forest pollen values and one charcoal peak. This was caused probably by an eruption of the Jinlongdingzi volcano.

Contribution of sewage organic matter to the diet of the common limpet near the former outflow at Blackhead, Northern Ireland

Stable isotopes (δ13C, δ15N) have been used to document the utilisation of sewage effluent in coastal marine foodwebs in a number of studies (e.g. Rau et al. 1981; Risk et al. 2009; Rogers 1999; 2003). δ13C and, especially, δ15N showed clear differences in the diet of common limpets (Patella vulgata) collected in June 2010 near the untreated sewage outfall at Blackhead, Northern Ireland and a ‘clean’ site nearby. Because sewage contains a significant portion of fossil-fuel derived compounds (Law et al. 2013), 14C measurements enabled us to estimate the contribution of fossil carbon to the effluent and to the foodweb and hence of the level of sewage contamination. The effluent was found to contain 12.2 ± x % fossil carbon on the day sampled. The modern marine carbon endmember is enriched by the discharge from the Sellafield nuclear fuel reprocessing plant across the Irish Sea (c.f. Cook et al. 2004) so 14C analyses of samples from the ‘clean’ site were needed. We found that 38.5 ±x % of the diet of common limpets collected near the sewage was derived from fossil fuel. We plan to collect samples from the same two sites in June 2014 to establish whether the 2012 relocation of the outfall, with preliminary treated discharge farther out to sea has eliminated the contamination at Blackhead

Deglacial mesophotic reef demise on the Great Barrier Reef

Submerged reefs are important recorders of palaeo-environments and sea-level change, and provide a substrate for modern mesophotic (deep-water, light-dependent) coral communities. Mesophotic reefs are rarely, if ever, described from the fossil record and nothing is known of their long-term record on Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Sedimentological and palaeo-ecological analyses coupled with 67 14C AMS and U–Th radiometric dates from dredged coral, algae and bryozoan specimens, recovered from depths of 45 to 130 m, reveal two distinct generations of fossil mesophotic coral community development on the submerged shelf edge reefs of the GBR. They occurred from 13 to 10 ka and 8 ka to present. We identified eleven sedimentary facies representing both autochthonous (in situ) and allochthonous (detrital) genesis, and their palaeo-environmental settings have been interpreted based on their sedimentological characteristics, biological assemblages, and the distribution of similar modern biota within the dredges. Facies on the shelf edge represent deep sedimentary environments, primarily forereef slope and open platform settings in palaeo-water depths of 45–95 m. Two coral–algal assemblages and one non-coral encruster assemblage were identified: 1) Massive and tabular corals including Porites, Montipora and faviids associated with Lithophylloids and minor Mastophoroids, 2) platy and encrusting corals including Porites, Montipora and Pachyseris associated with melobesioids and Sporolithon, and 3) Melobesiods and Sporolithon with acervulinids (foraminifera) and bryozoans. Based on their modern occurrence on the GBR and Coral Sea and modern specimens collected in dredges, these are interpreted as representing palaeo-water depths of < 60 m, < 80–100 m and > 100 m respectively. The first mesophotic generation developed at modern depths of 85–130 m from 13 to 10.2 ka and exhibit a deepening succession of < 60 to > 100 m palaeo-water depth through time. The second generation developed at depths of 45–70 m on the shelf edge from 7.8 ka to present and exhibit stable environmental conditions through time. The apparent hiatus that interrupted the mesophotic coral communities coincided with the timing of modern reef initiation on the GBR as well as a wide-spread flux of siliciclastic sediments from the shelf to the basin. For the first time we have observed the response of mesophotic reef communities to millennial scale environmental perturbations, within the context of global sea-level rise and environmental changes.

14C as a tool to trace terrestrial carbon in a complex lake system: implications for food-web structure and carbon cycling

Globally lakes bury and remineralise significant quantities of terrestrial C, and the associated flux of terrestrial C strongly influences their functioning. Changing deposition chemistry, land use and climate induced impacts on hydrology will affect soil biogeochemistry and terrestrial C export¹ and hence lake ecology with potential feedbacks for regional and global C cycling. C and nitrogen stable isotope analysis (SIA) has identified the terrestrial subsidy of freshwater food webs. The approach relies on different ¹³C fractionation in aquatic and terrestrial primary producers, but also that inorganic C demands of aquatic primary producers are partly met by ¹³C depleted C from respiration of terrestrial C, and ‘old’ C derived from weathering of catchment geology. SIA thus fails to differentiate between the contributions of old and recently fixed terrestrial C. Natural abundance ¹⁴C can be used as an additional biomarker to untangle riverine food webs² where aquatic and terrestrial δ ¹³C overlap, but may also be valuable for examining the age and origin of C in the lake. Primary production in lakes is based on dissolved inorganic C (DIC). DIC in alkaline lakes is partially derived from weathering of carbonaceous bedrock, a proportion of which is¹⁴C-free. The low ¹⁴C activity yields an artificial age offset leading samples to appear hundreds to thousands of years older than their actual age. As such, ¹⁴C can be used to identify the proportion of autochthonous C in the food-web. With terrestrial C inputs likely to increase, the origin and utilisation of ‘fossil’ or ‘recent’ allochthonous C in the food-web can also be determined. Stable isotopes and 14C were measured for biota, particulate organic matter (POM), DIC and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, a humic alkaline lake. Temporal and spatial variation was evident in DIC, DOC and POM C isotopes with implications for the fluctuation in terrestrial export processes. Ramped pyrolysis of lake surface sediment indicates the burial of two C components. ¹⁴C activity (507 ± 30 BP) of sediment combusted at 400˚C was consistent with algal values and younger than bulk sediment values (1097 ± 30 BP). The sample was subsequently combusted at 850˚C, yielding 14C values (1471 ± 30 BP) older than the bulk sediment age, suggesting that fossil terrestrial carbon is also buried in the sediment. Stable isotopes in the food web indicate that terrestrial organic C is also utilised by lake organisms. High winter δ ¹⁵N values in calanoid zooplankton (δ ¹⁵N = 24%¸) relative to phytoplankton and POM (δ ¹⁵N = 6h and 12h respectively) may reflect several microbial trophic levels between terrestrial C and calanoids. Furthermore winter calanoid 14C ages are consistent with DOC from an inflowing river (75 ± 24 BP), not phytoplankton (367 ± 70 BP). Summer calanoid δ ^13C, δ ¹⁵N and ¹⁴C (345 ± 80 BP) indicate greater reliance on phytoplankton.

¹ Monteith, D.T et al., (2007) Dissolved organic carbon trends resulting from changes in atmospheric deposition chemistry. Nature, 450:537-535

² Caraco, N., et al.,(2010) Millennial-aged organic carbon subsidies to a modern river food web. Ecology,91: 2385-2393.

Reassessment of the Microbial Role in Mn-Fe Nodule Genesis in Andean Paleosols

The presence of Mn-Fe nodules in the epipedons (surface horizons) of paleosols of presumed Upper Neogene age in the northwestern Venezuelan Andes have been interpreted as products of inorganic oxidation and reduction processes operating over the full range of glacial and interglacial cycles that affected paleosol morphogenesis. New microscopic/chemical data from combined SEM-EDS-FIB analyses of representative Mn-Fe nodules indicate microbes play an important role in Mn/Fe precipitation leading to their genesis in alpine Mollisols (Argiustolls). Although the prevailing new data are based mainly on fossil forms of filamentous bacteria and fungi and other biogenic pseudomorphs that may represent the former resident bacteria, the presence of extant microbes must await field experiments/collection, followed by a molecular microbiology approach to determine the biological drivers of metal precipitation. As in other terrestrial niche environments, microbes are seen here to play a role, perhaps a key one, in the morphogenesis of paleosols of importance in upper Neogene paleoenvironmental reconstruction.

Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessment on Lignocellulosic Biomass Thermochemical Conversion Technologies: A Review

Bioenergy derived from biomass provides a promising energy alternative and can reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated from fossil fuels. Biomass-based thermochemical conversion technologies have been acknowledged as apt options to convert bioresources into bioenergy; this bioenergy includes electricity, heat, and fuels/chemicals in solid, liquid, and gaseous phases. In this review, the techno-economic and life cycle assessment of these technologies (combustion, gasification, pyrolysis, liquefaction, carbonization, and co-firing) are summarized. Specific indicators (production costs in a techno-economic analysis, functional units and environmental impacts in a life cycle analysis) for different technologies were compared. Finally, gaps in research and future trends in biomass thermochemical conversion were identified. This review could be used to guide future research related to economic and environmental benefits of bioenergy.

Mineralogy, chemistry and biological contingents of an early-middle Miocene Antarctic paleosol and its relevance as a Martian analogue

Fossil mesofauna and bacteria recovered from a paleosol in a moraine situated adjacent to the inland ice, Antarctica, and dating to the earliest glacial event in the Antarctic Dry Valleys opens several questions. The most important relates to understanding of the mineralogy and chemistry of the weathered substrate habitat in which Coleoptera apparently thrived at some point in the Early/Middle Miocene and perhaps earlier. Here, Coleoptera remains are only located in one of six horizons in a paleosol formed in moraine deposited during the alpine glacial event (> 15 Ma). A tendency for quartz to decrease upward in the section may be a detrital effect or a product of dissolution in the early stage of profile morphogenesis when climate was presumably milder and the depositing glacier of temperate type. Discontinuous distributions of smectite, laumontite, and hexahydrite may have provided nutrients and water to mesofauna and bacteria during the early stage of biotic colonization of the profile. Because the mesofauna were members of burrowing Coleoptera species, future work should assess the degree to which the organisms occupied other sites in the Dry Valleys in the past. Whereas there is no reasonable expectations of finding Coleoptera/insect remains on Mars, the chemistry and mineralogy of the paleosol is within a life expectancy window for the presence of microorganisms, principally bacteria and fungi. Thus, parameters discussed here within this Antarctic paleosol could provide an analogue to identifying similar fossil or life-bearing weathered regolith on Mars.

Integrated techno-economic and environmental assessments of sixty scenarios for co-firing biomass with coal and natural gas

Displacement of fossil fuel-based power through biomass co-firing could reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuels. In this study, data-intensive techno-economic models were developed to evaluate different co-firing technologies as well as the configurations of these technologies. The models were developed to study 60 different scenarios involving various biomass feedstocks (wood chips, wheat straw, and forest residues) co-fired either with coal in a 500 MW subcritical pulverized coal (PC) plant or with natural gas in a 500 MW natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant to determine their technical potential and costs, as well as to determine environmental benefits. The results obtained reveal that the fully paid-off coal-fired power plant co-fired with forest residues is the most attractive option, having levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) of $53.12–$54.50/MW h and CO2 abatement costs of $27.41–$31.15/tCO2. When whole forest chips are co-fired with coal in a fully paid-off plant, the LCOE and CO2 abatement costs range from $54.68 to $56.41/MW h and $35.60 to $41.78/tCO2, respectively. The LCOE and CO2 abatement costs for straw range from $54.62 to $57.35/MW h and $35.07 to $38.48/tCO2, respectively.

An optimized process design for oxymethylene ether production from woody-biomass-derived syngas

The conversion of biomass for the production of liquid fuels can help reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are predominantly generated by the combustion of fossil fuels. Oxymethylene ethers (OMEs) are a series of liquid fuel additives that can be obtained from syngas, which is produced from the gasification of biomass. The blending of OMEs in conventional diesel fuel can reduce soot formation during combustion in a diesel engine. In this research, a process for the production of OMEs from woody biomass has been simulated. The process consists of several unit operations including biomass gasifi- cation, syngas cleanup, methanol production, and conversion of methanol to OMEs. The methodology involved the development of process models, the identification of the key process parameters affecting OME production based on the process model, and the development of an optimal process design for high OME yields. It was found that up to 9.02 tonnes day1 of OME3, OME4, and OME5 (which are suitable as diesel additives) can be produced from 277.3 tonnes day1 of wet woody biomass. Furthermore, an optimal combination of the parameters, which was generated from the developed model, can greatly enhance OME production and thermodynamic efficiency. This model can further be used in a techno- economic assessment of the whole biomass conversion chain to produce OMEs. The results of this study can be helpful for petroleum-based fuel producers and policy makers in determining the most attractive pathways of converting bio-resources into liquid fuels.