Long-term return reversals-Value and growth or tax? UK evidence

This paper examines (i) whether value-growth characteristics have more power than past performance in predicting return reversals; and (ii) whether typical rational behaviour such as incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes can better explain long-term reversals than past performance. We find that value-growth characteristics generally provide better explanations for long-term stock returns than past performance. The evidence also shows that winners identified by capital gains dominate past performance winners in predicting reversals in the cross-sectional comparison. However, in the time-series analysis, when returns on capital gain winners are adjusted by the Fama and French (1996) risk factors, the predictive power of capital gain winners disappears. Our results show that capital gain winners are heavily featured as growth stocks. Return reversals in capital gain winners potentially reflect market price corrections for growth stocks. We conclude that investors’ incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes cannot fully rationalise long-term reversals in the UK market. Our results also imply that the long-term return pattern potentially reflects a mixture of investor rational and irrational behaviour.

The rate of return on equity across industrial sectors on the British stock market, 1825-70

This article assesses the contribution of the various industrial sectors to the growth of the British equity market in the 1825–70 period. It also provides estimates of the rates of return on these industrial sectors in this period. The article then proceeds to examine whether differences in rates of return across the various sectors can be explained by risk or other financial factors. One of the main findings is that the relatively high rates of return in the banking, insurance, and miscellaneous sectors appear to be in some measure explained by the presence of extended liability and uncalled capital.

Association of Caveolin-1 gene polymorphism with kidney transplant fibrosis and allograft failure

Context: Caveolin-1 (CAV1) is an inhibitor of tissue fibrosis.
Objective: To study the association of CAV1 gene variation with kidney transplant outcome, using kidney transplantation as a model of accelerated fibrosis.
Design, Setting, and Patients: Candidate gene association and validation study. Genomic DNA from 785 white kidney transplant donors and their respective recipients (transplantations in Birmingham, England, between 1996 and 2006; median followup, 81 months) were analyzed for common variation in CAV1 using a singlenucleotide polymorphism (SNP) tagging approach. Validation of positive findings was sought in an independent kidney transplant donor-recipient cohort (transplantations in Belfast, Northern Ireland, between 1986 and 2005; n=697; median follow-up, 69 months). Association between genotype and allograft failure was initially assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis, then in an adjusted Cox model.
Main Outcome Measure: Death-censored allograft failure, defined as a return to dialysis or retransplantation.
Results: The presence of donor AA genotype for the CAV1 rs4730751 SNP was associated with increased risk of allograft failure in the Birmingham group (donor AA vs non-AA genotype in adjusted Cox model, hazard ratio [HR], 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29-3.16; P=.002). No other tag SNPs showed a significant association. This finding was validated in the Belfast cohort (in adjusted Cox model, HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.07-2.27; P=.02). Overall graft failure rates were as follows: for the Birmingham cohort, donor genotype AA, 22 of 57 (38.6%); genotype CC, 96 of 431 (22.3%); and genotype AC, 66 of 297 (22.2%); and for the Belfast cohort, donor genotype AA, 32 of 48 (67%); genotype CC, 150 of 358 (42%); and genotype AC, 119 of 273 (44%).
Conclusion: Among kidney transplant donors, the CAV1 rs4730751 SNP was significantly associated with allograft failure in 2 independent cohorts.

Genetic Variation in the Serotonin 2A Receptor and Suicidal Ideation in a Sample of 270 Irish High-Density Schizophrenia Families

Genetic variation in the serotonin 2A receptor (HTR2A) has been associated with both schizophrenia and suicidal behavior. Our sample comprised 270 Irish high-density schizophrenia families (n = 1,408 subjects, including 755 with psychotic illness). Diagnoses were generated using a modified SCID. All patients who had at least one episode of psychosis were rated on the Operation Criteria Checklist for Psychotic Illness (OPCRIT). Lifetime history of suicidal ideation was determined from medical records and psychiatric interviews and was scored in the OPCRIT. Twelve SNPs were selected for study. Ten of these were tagSNPs derived from HapMap data, along with His452Tyr and T102C. We tested for association with psychotic illness as a whole, as well as stratified by the presence of suicidal ideation, using FBAT and PDTPHASE. Single-marker as well as haplotype-based tests using a

Unique genetic variation at a species' rear edge is under threat from global climate change

Global climate change is having a significant effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species, causing both range shifts and population extinctions. To date, however, no consensus has emerged on how these processes will affect the range-wide genetic diversity of impacted species. It has been suggested that species that recolonized from low-latitude refugia might harbour high levels of genetic variation in rear-edge populations, and that loss of these populations could cause a disproportionately large reduction in overall genetic diversity in such taxa. In the present study, we have examined the distribution of genetic diversity across the range of the seaweed Chondrus crispus, a species that has exhibited a northward shift in its southern limit in Europe over the last 40 years. Analysis of 19 populations from both sides of the North Atlantic using mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), sequence data from two singlecopy nuclear regions and allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci revealed unique genetic variation for all marker classes in the rear-edge populations in Iberia, but not in the rear-edge populations in North America. Palaeodistribution modelling and statistical testing of alternative phylogeographic scenarios indicate that the unique genetic diversity in Iberian populations is a result not only of persistence in the region during the last glacial maximum, but also because this refugium did not contribute substantially to the recolonization of Europe after the retreat of the ice. Consequently, loss of these rear-edge populations as a result of ongoing climate change will have a major effect on the overall genetic diversity of the species, particularly in Europe, and this could compromise the adaptive potential of the species as a whole in the face of future global warming.

Local Conentration of Waves due to Abrupt Alongshore Variation of Nearshore Bathymetry

Small-scale physical and numerical experiments were conducted to investigate the local concentration of waves (monochromatic and group) due to abrupt change of nearshore bathymetry in alongshore direction. Wave run-up motions along the shoreline were measured using an image analysis technique to compare localized concentration of wave energy, when waves propagate a over bathymetry composing rhythmic patterns of mild/steep slope bottom configurations. Measured alongshore variation of maximum wave run-up heights showed significant peak near the boundary, which has sudden alongshore change of depth, both under monochromatic and group wave trains. This phenomenon is found to be due to interaction of waves with neashore currents, which is further enhanced by excitation of long wave components by breaking of group waves. Furthermore, this paper discusses results of preliminary experiments carried out to test the effectiveness of several shore protection structure layouts in mitigating such wave concentrations. Numerical simulations were performed by using a model developed based on Nwogu (1993) Boussinesq-type equations; coupled with a transport equation to model energy dissipation due to wave breaking.

Extent and variation of phage-borne bacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences in wastewater environments

Phage metagenomes isolated from wastewater over a 12-month period were analyzed. The results suggested that various strains of Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and other phyla are likely to participate in transduction. The patterns of 16S rRNA sequences found in phage metagenomes did not follow changes in the total bacterial community.