Parameter estimation and equation formulation in Business Dynamics

System Dynamics enables modelling and simulation of highly non-linear feedback systems to predict future system behaviour. Parameter estimation and equation formulation are techniques in System Dynamics, used to retrieve the values of parameters or the equations for ?ows and/or variables. These techniques are crucial for the annotations and thereafter the simulation. This paper critically examines existing and well established approaches in parameter estimation and equation formulation along with their limitations, identifying performance gaps as well as providing directions for potential future research.

Parameter Optimization on Laser Welding of NiTi Wires by Taguchi Method

In this research, a preliminary study was done to find out the initial parameter window to obtain the full-penetrated NiTi weldment. A L27 Taguchi experiment was then carried out to statistically study the effects of the welding parameters and their possible interactions on the weld bead aspect ratio (or penetration over fuse-zone width ratio), and to determine the optimized parameter settings to produce the full-penetrated weldment with desirable aspect ratio. From the statistical results in the Taguchi experiment, the laser mode was found to be the most important factor that substantially affects the aspect ratio. Strong interaction between the power and focus position was found in the Taguchi experiment. The optimized weldment was mainly of columnar dendritic structure in the weld zone (WZ), while the HAZ exhibited equiaxed grain structure. The XRD and DSC results showed that the WZ remained the B2 austenite structure without any precipitates, but with a significant decrease of phase transformation temperatures. The results in the micro-hardness and tensile tests indicated that the mechanical properties of NiTi were decreased to a certain extent after fibre laser welding.

Analysis of epistasis in linked regions in the Irish study of high-density schizophrenia families

Epistasis may be important in the etiology of schizophrenia. Analysis of epistasis has been important in the positional cloning of a gene involved in the etiology of type II diabetes mellitus. We investigated the importance of epistasis among six linked regions in 268 multiplex pedigrees in the Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families (ISHDSF) by computing pairwise correlations between nonparametric linkage scores for narrow, intermediate, and broad diagnostic definitions. The linked regions were on chromosomes 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, and 10. No correlation reached our a priori level of statistical significance. Using this statistical approach, we did not find evidence of important epistatic effects among these six regions in the ISHDSF.

Genome-wide scans of three independent sets of 90 Irish multiplex schizophrenia families and follow-up of selected regions in all families provides evidence for multiple susceptibility genes

From our linkage study of Irish families with a high density of schizophrenia, we have previously reported evidence for susceptibility genes in regions 5q21-31, 6p24-21, 8p22-21, and 10p15-p11. In this report, we describe the cumulative results from independent genome scans of three a priori random subsets of 90 families each, and from multipoint analysis of all 270 families in ten regions. Of these ten regions, three (13q32, 18p11-q11, and 18q22-23) did not generate scores above the empirical baseline pairwise scan results, and one (6q13-26) generated a weak signal. Six other regions produced more positive pairwise and multipoint results. They showed the following maximum multipoint H-LOD (heterogeneity LOD) and NPL scores: 2p14-13: 0.89 (P = 0.06) and 2.08 (P = 0.02), 4q24-32: 1.84 (P = 0.007) and 1.67 (P = 0.03), 5q21-31: 2.88 (P= 0.0007), and 2.65 (P = 0.002), 6p25-24: 2.13 (P = 0.005) and 3.59 (P = 0.0005), 6p23: 2.42 (P = 0.001) and 3.07 (P = 0.001), 8p22-21: 1.57 (P = 0.01) and 2.56 (P = 0.005), 10p15-11: 2.04 (P = 0.005) and 1.78 (P = 0.03). The degree of 'internal replication' across subsets differed, with 5q, 6p, and 8p being most consistent and 2p and 10p being least consistent. On 6p, the data suggested the presence of two susceptibility genes, in 6p25-24 and 6p23-22. Very few families were positive on more than one region, and little correlation between regions was evident, suggesting substantial locus heterogeneity. The levels of statistical significance were modest, as expected from loci contributing to complex traits. However, our internal replications, when considered along with the positive results obtained in multiple other samples, suggests that most of these six regions are likely to contain genes that influence liability to schizophrenia.

Dense subgraphs on dynamic networks

In distributed networks, it is often useful for the nodes to be aware of dense subgraphs, e.g., such a dense subgraph could reveal dense substructures in otherwise sparse graphs (e.g. the World Wide Web or social networks); these might reveal community clusters or dense regions for possibly maintaining good communication infrastructure. In this work, we address the problem of self-awareness of nodes in a dynamic network with regards to graph density, i.e., we give distributed algorithms for maintaining dense subgraphs that the member nodes are aware of. The only knowledge that the nodes need is that of the dynamic diameter D, i.e., the maximum number of rounds it takes for a message to traverse the dynamic network. For our work, we consider a model where the number of nodes are fixed, but a powerful adversary can add or remove a limited number of edges from the network at each time step. The communication is by broadcast only and follows the CONGEST model. Our algorithms are continuously executed on the network, and at any time (after some initialization) each node will be aware if it is part (or not) of a particular dense subgraph. We give algorithms that (2 + e)-approximate the densest subgraph and (3 + e)-approximate the at-least-k-densest subgraph (for a given parameter k). Our algorithms work for a wide range of parameter values and run in O(D log n) time. Further, a special case of our results also gives the first fully decentralized approximation algorithms for densest and at-least-k-densest subgraph problems for static distributed graphs. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

Combining multi-scale geophysical techniques for robust hydro-structural characterisation in catchments underlain by hard rock in post-glacial regions

Accurate conceptual models of groundwater systems are essential for correct interpretation of monitoring data in catchment studies. In surface-water dominated hard rock regions, modern ground and surface water monitoring programmes often have very high resolution chemical, meteorological and hydrological observations but lack an equivalent emphasis on the subsurface environment, the properties of which exert a strong control on flow pathways and interactions with surface waters. The reasons for this disparity are the complexity of the system and the difficulty in accurately characterising the subsurface, except locally at outcrops or in boreholes. This is particularly the case in maritime north-western Europe, where a legacy of glacial activity, combined with large areas underlain by heterogeneous igneous and metamorphic bedrock, make the structure and weathering of bedrock difficult to map or model. Traditional approaches which seek to extrapolate information from borehole to field-scale are of limited application in these environments due to the high degree of spatial heterogeneity. Here we apply an integrative and multi-scale approach, optimising and combining standard geophysical techniques to generate a three-dimensional geological conceptual model of the subsurface in a catchment in NE Ireland. Available airborne LiDAR, electromagnetic and magnetic data sets were analysed for the region. At field-scale surface geophysical methods, including electrical resistivity tomography, seismic refraction, ground penetrating radar and magnetic surveys, were used and combined with field mapping of outcrops and borehole testing. The study demonstrates how combined interpretation of multiple methods at a range of scales produces robust three-dimensional conceptual models and a stronger basis for interpreting groundwater and surface water monitoring data.

Investigation of secure wireless regions using configurable beamforming on WARP

In this paper, we examine a novel approach to network security against passive eavesdroppers in a ray-tracing model and implement it on a hardware platform. By configuring antenna array beam patterns to transmit the data to specific regions, it is possible to create defined regions of coverage for targeted users. By adapting the antenna configuration according to the intended user’s channel state information, this allows the vulnerability of the physical regions to eavesdropping to be reduced. We present the application of our concept to 802.11n networks where an antenna array is employed at the access point. A range of antenna array configurations are examined by simulation and then realized using the Wireless Open-Access Research Platform(WARP)

Creating secure wireless regions using configurable beamforming

We present a novel approach to network security against passive eavesdroppers by employing a configurable beam-forming technique to create tightly defined regions of coverage for targeted users. In contrast to conventional encryption methods, our security scheme is developed at the physical layer by configuring antenna array beam patterns to transmit the data to specific regions. It is shown that this technique can effectively reduce vulnerability of the physical regions to eavesdropping by adapting the antenna configuration according to the intended user's channel state information. In this paper we present the application of our concept to 802.11n networks where an antenna array is employed at the access point, and consider the issue of minimizing the coverage area of the region surrounding the targeted user. A metric termed the exposure region is formally defined and used to evaluate the level of security offered by this technique. A range of antenna array configurations are examined through analysis and simulation, and these are subsequently used to obtain the optimum array configuration for a user traversing a coverage area.

Using CAD parameter sensitivities for stack-up tolerance allocation

Tolerance allocation is an important step in the design process. It is necessary to produce high quality components cost-effectively. However, the process of allocating tolerances can be time consuming and difficult, especially for complex models. This work demonstrates a novel CAD based approach, where the sensitivities of product dimensions to changes in the values of the feature parameters in the CAD model are computed. These are used to automatically establish the assembly response function for the product. This information has been used to automatically allocate tolerances to individual part dimensions to achieve specified tolerances on the assembly dimensions, even for tolerance allocation in more than one direction simultaneously. It is also shown how pre-existing constraints on some of the part dimensions can be represented and how situations can be identified where the required tolerance allocation is not achievable. A methodology is also presented that uses the same information to model a component with different amounts of dimensional variation to simulate the effects of tolerance stack-up. © 2014 Springer-Verlag France.

Political Posturing or Real Powers: Control of Genetically Modified Crops by the Member States and their Regions

The cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops in the EU is highly harmonised, involving a central authorisation procedure that aims to ensure a high level of environmental and human health protection. However conflicts over authority persist and the Commission has responded to a combination of internal and external pressures with a more flexible approach to coexistence, a proposed opt-out clause and recently a promise by the head of the Commission to review the existing EU GM legislative regime, providing an opportunity to consider and suggest paths of development. In light of the significance of multilevel governance and subsidiarity for GM cultivation, this paper considers the policy-making powers of the Member States and subnational regions in this regime, focussing upon post-authorisation options in particular. A number of core mechanisms exist, including voluntary measures, safeguard clauses, coexistence measures, a proposed express opt-out and Article 4(2) TEU on ‘national identity. These mechanisms are examined in light of the goals and challenges of multilevel governance, in order to consider whether the relevant powers are located at the appropriate level. Overall, it is apparent that the developments occurring at the EU level are strengthening multilevel governance, but with significant opportunities to improve it further through focussing on the supporting roles and the regional levels in particular.

A New Analysis of Mars "Special Regions": Findings of the Second MEPAG Special Regions Science Analysis Group (SR-SAG2)

A committee of the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) has reviewed and updated the description of Special Regions on Mars as places where terrestrial organisms might replicate (per the COSPAR Planetary Protection Policy). This review and update was conducted by an international team (SR-SAG2) drawn from both the biological science and Mars exploration communities, focused on understanding when and where Special Regions could occur. The study applied recently available data about martian environments and about terrestrial organisms, building on a previous analysis of Mars Special Regions (2006) undertaken by a similar team. Since then, a new body of highly relevant information has been generated from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (launched in 2005) and Phoenix (2007) and data from Mars Express and the twin Mars Exploration Rovers (all 2003). Results have also been gleaned from the Mars Science Laboratory (launched in 2011). In addition to Mars data, there is a considerable body of new data regarding the known environmental limits to life on Earth—including the potential for terrestrial microbial life to survive and replicate under martian environmental conditions. The SR-SAG2 analysis has included an examination of new Mars models relevant to natural environmental variation in water activity and temperature; a review and reconsideration of the current parameters used to define Special Regions; and updated maps and descriptions of the martian environments recommended for treatment as “Uncertain” or “Special” as natural features or those potentially formed by the influence of future landed spacecraft. Significant changes in our knowledge of the capabilities of terrestrial organisms and the existence of possibly habitable martian environments have led to a new appreciation of where Mars Special Regions may be identified and protected. The SR-SAG also considered the impact of Special Regions on potential future human missions to Mars, both as locations of potential resources and as places that should not be inadvertently contaminated by human activity. Key Words: Martian environments—Mars astrobiology—Extreme environment microbiology—Planetary protection—Exploration resources. Astrobiology 14, 887–968.

European Border Regions in Comparison: Overcoming Nationalistic Aspects or Re-Nationalization?

Essay Review of Katarzyna Stokłosa and Gerhard Besier (eds) (2014) European Border Regions in Comparison: Overcoming Nationalistic Aspects or Re-Nationalization? (London: Routledge)