Imprecise probabilistic query answering using measures of ignorance and degree of satisfaction

In conditional probabilistic logic programming, given a query, the two most common forms for answering the query are either a probability interval or a precise probability obtained by using the maximum entropy principle. The former can be noninformative (e.g.,interval [0; 1]) and the reliability of the latter is questionable when the priori knowledge isimprecise. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose some methods to quantitativelymeasure if a probability interval or a single probability is sufficient for answering a query. We first propose an approach to measuring the ignorance of a probabilistic logic program with respect to a query. The measure of ignorance (w.r.t. a query) reflects howreliable a precise probability for the query can be and a high value of ignorance suggests that a single probability is not suitable for the query. We then propose a method to measure the probability that the exact probability of a query falls in a given interval, e.g., a second order probability. We call it the degree of satisfaction. If the degree of satisfaction is highenough w.r.t. the query, then the given interval can be accepted as the answer to the query. We also prove our measures satisfy many properties and we use a case study to demonstrate the significance of the measures. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Assessment of the solubility and bioaccessibility of arsenic in realgar wine using a simulated gastrointestinal system

Consumption of arsenic (As) wine is a traditional activity during the classic Chinese festival of Duanwu, colloquially known worldwide as the Dragon Boat Day. Arsenic wine is drunk on the morning of the fifth day of the fifth lunar calendar month to commemorate the death of Qu Yuan, a famed Chinese poet who drowned himself in protest of a corrupt government, and to protect against ill fortune. Although realgar minerals are characteristically composed of sparingly soluble tetra-arsenic tetra-sulfides (As(4)S(4)), purity does vary with up to 10% of As being present as non-sulfur bound species, such as arsenate (As(v)) and arsenite (As(III)). Despite, the renewed interest in As speciation and the bioaccessibility of the active As components in realgar based Chinese medicines, little is known about the safety surrounding the cultural practice of drinking As wine. In a series of experiments the speciation and solubility of As in a range of wines were investigated. Furthermore, a simulated gastrointestinal system was employed to predict the impact of digestive processes on As bioavailability. The predominant soluble As species found in all the wines were As(III) and As(v). Based on typical As wine recipes employing 0.1 g realgar mL(-1) wine, the concentration of dissolved As ranged from ca. 100 to 400 mg L(-1) depending on the ethanol content of the preparation: with the As solubility found to be higher in wines with a lower proportion of ethanol. Based on a common 100 mL measure of wine with a concentration of 400 mg As L(-1), the amount of soluble As would equate to around half of the acute minimal lethal dose for adults. This is likely an underestimate of the bioaccessible concentration, as a three-fold increase in bioaccessibility could be observed in the intestinal phase based on the results from the stimulated gastrointestinal system. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An exploration of the relationship between social support and depressive symptoms in schizophrenia

Objective: Depressive symptoms in schizophrenia have previously been associated with a perceived lack of social support. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between perceived social support and depressive symptoms in schizophrenia; to assess the psychological wellbeing of their carers; and to examine the quality of the relationship between the patients and their carers. Method: Individuals with schizophrenia (n = 17) were assessed on the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), the Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS), a measure of perceived social support, the Significant Others Scale (SOS) and the Quality of Relationship Inventory (QRI). Results: The mean score on the BDI for patients fell within the moderate-severe range and the mean range on the BHS fell within the moderate range. Family and friends were perceived as supportive resources by patients. There was no significant relationship between patient epressive symptoms or hopelessness and perceived social support. Carers of patients did not report high rates of depressive symptoms or hopelessness. Conclusions: These findings do not support the previous finding of an association between depressive symptoms and a perceived lack of social support in schizophrenia.

Moral emotions and the envisioning of mitigating circumstances for wrongdoing

Anger may be more responsive than disgust to mitigating circumstances in judgments of wrongdoing. We tested this hypothesis in two studies where we had participants envision circumstances that could serve to mitigate an otherwise wrongful act. In Study 1, participants provided moral judgments, and ratings of anger and disgust, to a number of transgressions involving either harm or bodily purity. They were then asked to imagine and report whether there might be any circumstances that would make it all right to perform the act. Across transgression type, and controlling for covariance between anger and disgust, levels of anger were found to negatively predict the envisioning of mitigating circumstances for wrongdoing, while disgust was unrelated. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings to less serious transgressions, using a continuous measure of mitigating circumstances, and demonstrated the impact of
anger independent of deontological commitments. These findings highlight the differential relationship that anger and disgust have with the ability to envision mitigating factors.

Effect of collagen turnover on the accumulation of advanced glycation end products

Collagen molecules in articular cartilage have an exceptionally long lifetime, which makes them susceptible to the accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGEs). In fact, in comparison to other collagen-rich tissues, articular cartilage contains relatively high amounts of the AGE pentosidine. To test the hypothesis that this higher AGE accumulation is primarily the result of the slow turnover of cartilage collagen, AGE levels in cartilage and skin collagen were compared with the degree of racemization of aspartic acid (% d-Asp, a measure of the residence time of a protein). AGE (N(epsilon)-(carboxymethyl)lysine, N(epsilon)-(carboxyethyl)lysine, and pentosidine) and % d-Asp concentrations increased linearly with age in both cartilage and skin collagen (p <0.0001). The rate of increase in AGEs was greater in cartilage collagen than in skin collagen (p <0.0001). % d-Asp was also higher in cartilage collagen than in skin collagen (p <0.0001), indicating that cartilage collagen has a longer residence time in the tissue, and thus a slower turnover, than skin collagen. In both types of collagen, AGE concentrations increased linearly with % d-Asp (p <0.0005). Interestingly, the slopes of the curves of AGEs versus % d-Asp, i.e. the rates of accumulation of AGEs corrected for turnover, were identical for cartilage and skin collagen. The present study thus provides the first experimental evidence that protein turnover is a major determinant in AGE accumulation in different collagen types. From the age-related increases in % d-Asp the half-life of cartilage collagen was calculated to be 117 years and that of skin collagen 15 years, thereby providing the first reasonable estimates of the half-lives of these collagens.

Perceptual investigation of image placement with Ambisonics for non-centred listeners

Ambisonics is a scalable spatial audio technique that attempts to present a sound scene to listeners over as large an area as possi- ble. A localisation experiment was carried out to investigate the performance of a first and third order system at three listening positions - one in the centre and two off-centre. The test used a reverse target-pointer adjustment method to determine the error, both signed and absolute, for each combination of listening posi- tion and system. The signed error was used to indicate the direc- tion and magnitude of the shifts in panning angle introduced for the off-centre listening positions. The absolute error was used as a measure of the performance of the listening position and systems combinations for a comparison of their overall performance. A comparison was made between the degree of image shifting be- tween the two systems and the robustness of their off-centre per- formance.

‘CLAM’ tests for measuring in-situ permeation properties of concrete

This paper descirbes a simple test measuring the sorptivity (a measure of the absorption property if concrete) and the air and water permeability of concrete on site. Using this test, the decay of pressure is monitired for the air permeability test.whereas water penetrating into the concrete at a constant pressure of 0.01 bar and 1.5 bar are recorded for the sorptivity and the water permeability tests respectively. These tests are essentially non-destructive in nature and a skilled operator is not needed. It is possible to carry out a number of tests quickly and efficiently on site without prior planning. It has been found that statistically satisfactory results can be obtained from a mean of three tests. As the flow lines are largely concentrated within 40 mm from the surface, reasonably reliable results can be obtained by drying the surface even if the surface under test is initially wet.

Determination of Power System Response during Small Load Fluctuations

This paper proposes a calculation method to determine power system response during small load perturbations or minor disturbances. The method establishes the initial value of active power transient using traditional reduction technique on admittance matrix, which incorporates voltage variations in the determination. The method examines active power distribution among generators when several loads simultaneously change, and verifies that the superposition principle is applicable for this scenario. The theoretical derivation provided in the paper is validated by numerical simulations using a 3-generator 9-bus benchmark model. The results indicate that the inclusion of voltage variation renders an independent and precise measure of active power response during transient conditions.

Religion and the risk of suicide: longitudinal study of over 1 million people

Background: Durkheim’s seminal historical study demonstrated that religious affiliation reduces suicide risk, but it is unclear whether this protective effect persists in modern, more secular societies.

Aims: To examine suicide risk according to Christian religious affiliation and by inference to examine underlying mechanisms for suicide risk. If church attendance is important, risk should be lowest for Roman Catholics and highest for those with no religion; if religiosity is important, then ‘conservative’ Christians should fare best.

Method: A 9-year study followed 1 106 104 people aged 16–74 years at the 2001 UK census, using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for census-based cohort attributes.

Results: In fully adjusted models analysing 1119 cases of suicide, Roman Catholics, Protestants and those professing no religion recorded similar risks. The risk associated with conservative Christians was lower than that for Catholics (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.52–0.97).

Conclusions: The relationship between religious affiliation and suicide established by Durkheim may not pertain in societies where suicide rates are highest at younger ages. Risks are similar for those with and without a religious affiliation, and Catholics (who traditionally are characterised by higher levels of church attendance) do not demonstrate lower risk of suicide. However, religious affiliation is a poor measure of religiosity, except for a small group of conservative Christians, although their lower risk of suicide may be attributable to factors such as lower risk behaviour and alcohol consumption.

Consideration of future consequences and alcohol use among Northern Irish adolescents

This study investigated the relationship between consideration of future consequences and alcohol use among adolescents. A cross-sectional design was used and a large sample of 12-to 16-year-old schoolchildren (n = 806) in Northern Ireland were recruited for this study. Alcohol use was assessed using a composite measure of drinking behaviour, the Adolescent Alcohol Involvement Scale. Time perspective was measured using the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFCS). Data were also gathered on self-esteem, three domains of self-efficacy and aggression, all of which have been found to be related to both drinking behaviour and time perspective. Factor analysis of the CFCS revealed support for a two-factor solution, with CFC-I representing present orientation and CFC-F representing future orientation. After controlling for year in school (proxy for age) and gender and for clustering at school level, scores on both subscales were significantly associated with alcohol use. Only CFC-F score remained significant with the addition of psychosocial variables. These results support recent findings of a significant relationship between CFCS score and alcohol use in UK adolescents and University undergraduates, and suggest that in more fully controlled analyses, future orientation, rather than present, is related to adolescent drinking. Results are discussed in relation to health promotion. © 2013 Informa UK Ltd.

Harnessing the power of personality assessment:Subjective assessment predicts behaviour in horses

Objective assessment of animal personality is typically time consuming, requiring the repeated measure of behavioural responses. By contrast, subjective assessment of personality allows information to be collected quickly by experienced caregivers. However, subjective assessment must predict behaviour to be valid. Comparisons of subjective assessments and behaviour have been made but often with methodological weaknesses and thus, limited success. Here we test the validity of a subjective assessment against a battery of behaviour tests in 146 horses (Equus caballus). Our first aim was to determine if subjective personality assessment could predict behaviour during behaviour testing. We made specific a priori predictions for how subjectively measured personality should relate to behaviour testing. We found that Extroversion predicted time to complete a handling test and refusal behaviour during this test. It also predicted minimum distance to a novel object. Neuroticism predicted how reactive an individual was to a sudden visual stimulus but not how quickly it recovered from this. Agreeableness did not predict any behaviour during testing. There were several unpredicted correlations between subjective measures and behaviour tests which we explore further. Our second aim was to combine data from the subjective assessment and behaviour tests to gain a more comprehensive understanding of personality. We found that the combination of methods provides new insights into horse behaviour. Furthermore, our data are consistent with the idea of horses showing different coping styles, a novel finding for this species. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Fetal Umbilical Artery Doppler Pulsatility Index as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Children - A Long-Term Follow Up Study

Abstract Objective To determine if high umbilical artery Doppler (UAD) pulsatility index (PI) is associated with cardio-vascular (CV) risk-factors in children at age 12 years. Methods We studied 195 children at age 12 years who had had in-utero UAD studies performed at 28 weeks gestation. The children were grouped according to whether their umbilical Doppler PI was high (indicating poor feto-placental circulation) or normal. At age 12 years we assessed CV risk factors, including anthropometric measures, blood pressure, pulse wave velocity (a measure of arterial compliance), cardio-respiratory fitness and homocysteine and cholesterol serum levels. Results Compared with children with a normal UAD PI (N=88), the children (N=107) with high UAD PI had higher resting pulse rate (p=0.04), higher pulse wave velocity (p=0.046), higher serum homocysteine levels (p=0.032) and reduced arterial compliance (7.58 v 8.50 m/sec, p=0.029) using univariate analysis. These differences were not present when adjusting for cofounders was modelled. Conclusion High PI on UAD testing in-utero may be associated with increased likelihood of some cardio-vascular risk factors at age 12-years but confounding variables may be as important. Our study raises possible long-term benefits of in-utero UAD measurements.

Examining the Neurocognitive Validity of Commercially Available, Smartphone-Based Puzzle Games

Cognitive assessment typically involves assessing a person’s cognitive performance in unfamiliar and ar-guably unnatural clinical surroundings. User-centred approaches to assessment and monitoring, driven by issues such as enjoyability and familiarity, are largely absent. Everyday technologies, for example, smartphones represent an opportunity to obtain an objective assessment of a person’s cognitive capabili-ties in a non-threatening, discreet and familiar way, e.g. by everyday puzzle games undertaken as a leisure activity at home. We examined the strength of relationships that exist between performance on common puzzle games and standard measures of neuropsychological performance. Twenty-nine participants, aged 50 - 65 years, completed a comprehensive neuropsychological test battery and played three smart-phone-based puzzle games in triplicate: a picture puzzle [Matches Plus], a word puzzle [Jumbline] and a number puzzle [Sudoku]. As anticipated, a priori, significant correlations were observed between scores on a picture puzzle and visual memory test (r = 0.49; p = 0.007); a word puzzle and estimated verbal IQ (r = 0.53; p = 0.003) and verbal learning (r = 0.30; p = 0.039) tests; and a number puzzle and reason-ing/problem solving test (r = 0.42; p = 0.023). Further analyses making allowance for multiple compari-sons identified a significant unanticipated correlation (r = 0.49; p = 0.007) between number puzzle scores and a measure of nonverbal working memory. Performance on these smartphone-based games was in-dicative of relative cognitive ability across several cognitive domains at a fixed time point. Smart-phone-based, everyday puzzle games may offer a valid, portable measure of assessing and monitoring cognition in older adults.

Prevalence and Causes of Prescribing ErrorsL The PRescribing Outcomes for Trainee Doctors Engaged in Clinical Training (PROTECT) Study

Objectives: Study objectives were to investigate the prevalence and causes of prescribing errors amongst foundation doctors (i.e. junior doctors in their first (F1) or second (F2) year of post-graduate training), describe their knowledge and experience of prescribing errors, and explore their self-efficacy (i.e. confidence) in prescribing.

Method: A three-part mixed-methods design was used, comprising: prospective observational study; semi-structured interviews and cross-sectional survey. All doctors prescribing in eight purposively selected hospitals in Scotland participated. All foundation doctors throughout Scotland participated in the survey. The number of prescribing errors per patient, doctor, ward and hospital, perceived causes of errors and a measure of doctors’ self-efficacy were established.

Results: 4710 patient charts and 44,726 prescribed medicines were reviewed. There were 3364 errors, affecting 1700 (36.1%) charts (overall error rate: 7.5%; F1:7.4%; F2:8.6%; consultants:6.3%). Higher error rates were associated with : teaching hospitals (p,0.001), surgical (p = ,0.001) or mixed wards (0.008) rather thanmedical ward, higher patient turnover wards (p,0.001), a greater number of prescribed medicines (p,0.001) and the months December and June (p,0.001). One hundred errors were discussed in 40 interviews. Error causation was multi-factorial; work environment and team factors were particularly noted. Of 548 completed questionnaires (national response rate of 35.4%), 508 (92.7% of respondents) reported errors, most of which (328 (64.6%) did not reach the patient. Pressure from other staff, workload and interruptions were cited as the main causes of errors. Foundation year 2 doctors reported greater confidence than year 1 doctors in deciding the most appropriate medication regimen.

Conclusions: Prescribing errors are frequent and of complex causation. Foundation doctors made more errors than other doctors, but undertook the majority of prescribing, making them a key target for intervention. Contributing causes included work environment, team, task, individual and patient factors. Further work is needed to develop and assess interventions that address these.

The Great Recession and the changing distribution of economic vulnerability by social class:The Irish case

Ireland provides an interesting case study of the distributional consequences of the Great Recession. To explore such effects we develop a measure of economic vulnerability based on a multidimensional risk profile for income poverty, material deprivation and economic stress. In the context of conflicting expectations of trends in social class differentials, we provide a comparison of pre and post-recession periods. Our analysis reveals a doubling of levels of economic vulnerability and a significant change in multidimensional profiles. Income poverty became less closely associated with material deprivation and economic stress and the degree of polarization between vulnerable and non-vulnerable classes was significantly reduced. Economic vulnerability is highly stratified by social class for both pre and post-recession periods. Focusing on absolute change, the main contrast is between the salariat and the non-agricultural self-employed and the remaining classes; providing some support for notions of polarization. In terms of relative change the higher salariat, the non-agricultural self-employed, the semi-unskilled manual and those who never worked gained relative to the remaining classes. This provides support the notion of ‘middle class squeeze’. The changing relationship between social class and household work intensity reflected a similar pattern. The impact of the latter on economic vulnerability declined sharply, while it came to play an increasing role in mediating the impact of membership of the non-agricultural middle classes. Responding to the political pressures likely to be associated with ‘middle class squeeze’ while sustaining the social welfare arrangements that have traditionally protected the economically vulnerable presents formidable challenges in terms of maintaining social cohesion and political legitimacy.