Random walk simulations of fossil proxy data

A wealth of palaeoecological studies (e.g. pollen, diatoms, chironomids and macrofossils from deposits such as lakes or bogs) have revealed major as well as more subtle ecosystem changes over decadal to multimillennial timescales. Such ecosystem changes are usually assumed to have been forced by specific environmental changes. Here, we test if the observed changes in palaeoecological records may be reproduced by random simulations, and we find that simple procedures generate abrupt events, long-term trends, quasi-cyclic behaviour, extinctions and immigrations. Our results highlight the importance of replicated and multiproxy data for reliable reconstructions of past climate and environmental changes.

Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles

Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool-adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm-adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold-adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g. Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food-web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Rapid sympatric ecological differentiation of crater lake cichlid fishes within historic times

Background: After a volcano erupts, a lake may form in the cooled crater and become an isolated aquatic ecosystem. This makes fishes in crater lakes informative for understanding sympatric evolution and ecological diversification in barren environments. From a geological and limnological perspective, such research offers insight about the process of crater lake ecosystem establishment and speciation. In the present study we use genetic and coalescence approaches to infer the colonization history of Midas cichlid fishes (Amphilophus cf. citrinellus) that inhabit a very young crater lake in Nicaragua-the ca. 1800 year-old Lake Apoyeque. This lake holds two sympatric, endemic morphs of Midas cichlid: one with large, hypertrophied lips (~20% of the total population) and another with thin lips. Here we test the associated ecological, morphological and genetic diversification of these two morphs and their potential to represent incipient speciation.
Results: Gene coalescence analyses [11 microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences] suggest that crater lake Apoyeque was colonized in a single event from the large neighbouring great lake Managua only about 100 years ago. This founding in historic times is also reflected in the extremely low nuclear and mitochondrial genetic diversity in Apoyeque. We found that sympatric adult thin- and thick-lipped fishes occupy distinct ecological trophic niches. Diet, body shape, head width, pharyngeal jaw size and shape and stable isotope values all differ significantly between the two lip-morphs. The eco-morphological features pharyngeal jaw shape, body shape, stomach contents and stable isotopes (d15N) all show a bimodal distribution of traits, which is compatible with the expectations of an initial stage of ecological speciation under disruptive selection. Genetic differentiation between the thin- and thick-lipped population is weak at mtDNA sequence (FST = 0.018) and absent at nuclear microsatellite loci (FST < 0.001).
Conclusions: This study provides empirical evidence of eco-morphological differentiation occurring very quickly after the colonization of a new and vacant habitat. Exceptionally low levels of neutral genetic diversity and inference from coalescence indicates that the Midas cichlid population in Apoyeque is much younger (ca. 100 years or generations old) than the crater itself (ca. 1 800 years old). This suggests either that the crater remained empty for many hundreds of years after its formation or that remnant volcanic activity prevented the establishment of a stable fish population during the early life of the crater lake. Based on our findings of eco-morphological variation in the Apoyeque Midas cichlids, and known patterns of adaptation in Midas cichlids in general, we suggest that this population may be in a very early stage of speciation (incipient species), promoted by disruptive selection and ecological diversification.

Biological influences on inter- and intraspecific isotopic variability among paired chondrostome fishes

This study aimed at examining resource partitioning both at the inter- and intraspecific levels between paired chondrostome fishes: Chondrostoma nasus, the nase, C. toxostoma, the sofie, and their hybrid. The study was performed in the south of France and concerned a main river (the Durance River) and a tributary (the Buech River). In these rivers, C. nasus was an introduced species, originating in central Europe, and C. toxostoma was an endemic congener, in the south of France. Stable isotope analysis was used to analyse trophic and spatial niches. Isotopic differences indicated that individuals from the three taxa (C. nasus, C. toxostoma and their hybrid) have different spatial origins. At the interspecific level, the different chondrostomes originating from the Buech River showed a high level of trophic niche overlap. At the intraspecific level, nase individuals originating from the different spatial origins showed a resource polymorphism; differences in morphology were associated with variation in behaviour and life history traits. Their coexistence was a likely outcome of resource polymorphism. This study provides an example of the importance of considering the link between intra- and interspecific interactions to gain an understanding of the mechanisms driving the coexistence of species-pairs. (C) 2010 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Raman microscopy in the diagnosis and prognosis of surgically resected nonsmall cell lung cancer

The main curative therapy for patients with nonsmall cell lung cancer is surgery. Despite this, the survival rate is only 50%, therefore it is important to more efficiently diagnose and predict prognosis for lung cancer patients. Raman spectroscopy is useful in the diagnosis of malignant and premalignant lesions. The aim of this study is to investigate the ability of Raman microscopy to diagnose lung cancer from surgically resected tissue sections, and predict the prognosis of these patients. Tumor tissue sections from curative resections are mapped by Raman microscopy and the spectra analzsed using multivariate techniques. Spectra from the tumor samples are also compared with their outcome data to define their prognostic significance. Using principal component analysis and random forest classification, Raman microscopy differentiates malignant from normal lung tissue. Principal component analysis of 34 tumor spectra predicts early postoperative cancer recurrence with a sensitivity of 73% and specificity of 74%. Spectral analysis reveals elevated porphyrin levels in the normal samples and more DNA in the tumor samples. Raman microscopy can be a useful technique for the diagnosis and prognosis of lung cancer patients receiving surgery, and for elucidating the biochemical properties of lung tumors. (C) 2010 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers. [DOI: 10.1117/1.3323088]

A randomized clinical trial of hydroxymethylglutaryl-Coenzyme A reductase inhibition for Acute Lung Injury (The HARP study)

Rationale: There is no effective pharmacological treatment for acute lung injury (ALI). Statins are a potential new therapy because they modify many of the underlying processes important in ALI.

Objectives: To test whether simvastatin improves physiological and biological outcomes in ALI.

Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial in patients with ALI. Patients received 80 mg simvastatin or placebo until cessation of mechanical ventilation or up to 14 days. Extravascular lung water was measured using thermodilution. Measures of pulmonary and nonpulmonary organ function were assessed daily. Pulmonary and systemic inflammation was assessed by bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and plasma cytokines. Systemic inflammation was also measured by plasma C-reactive protein.

Measurements and Main Results: Sixty patients were recruited. Baseline characteristics, including demographics and severity of illness scores, were similar in both groups. At Day 7, there was no difference in extravascular lung water. By Day 14, the simvastatin-treated group had improvements in nonpulmonary organ dysfunction. Oxygenation and respiratory mechanics improved, although these parameters failed to reach statistical significance. Intensive care unit mortality was 30% in both groups. Simvastatin was well tolerated, with no increase in adverse events. Simvastatin decreased bronchoalveolar lavage IL-8 by 2.5-fold (P = 0.04). Plasma C-reactive protein decreased in both groups but failed to achieve significance in the placebo-treated group.

Conclusions: Treatment with simvastatin appears to be safe and may be associated with an improvement in organ dysfunction in ALI. These clinical effects may be mediated by a reduction in pulmonary and systemic inflammation.