Analysing Web-Orchestrations Under Stress Using Uncertainty Profiles

An orchestration is a multi-threaded computation that invokes a number of remote services. In practice, the responsiveness of a web-service fluctuates with demand; during surges in activity service responsiveness may be degraded, perhaps even to the point of failure. An uncertainty profile formalizes a user's perception of the effects of stress on an orchestration of web-services; it describes a strategic situation, modelled by a zero-sum angel–daemon game. Stressed web-service scenarios are analysed, using game theory, in a realistic way, lying between over-optimism (services are entirely reliable) and over-pessimism (all services are broken). The ‘resilience’ of an uncertainty profile can be assessed using the valuation of its associated zero-sum game. In order to demonstrate the validity of the approach, we consider two measures of resilience and a number of different stress models. It is shown how (i) uncertainty profiles can be ordered by risk (as measured by game valuations) and (ii) the structural properties of risk partial orders can be analysed.

Uncertainty in the Cloud: An Angel-Daemon Approach to Modelling Performance

Uncertainty profiles are used to study the effects of contention within cloud and service-based environments. An uncertainty profile provides a qualitative description of an environment whose quality of service (QoS) may fluctuate unpredictably. Uncertain environments are modelled by strategic games with two agents; a daemon is used to represent overload and high resource contention; an angel is used to represent an idealised resource allocation situation with no underlying contention. Assessments of uncertainty profiles are useful in two ways: firstly, they provide a broad understanding of how environmental stress can effect an application’s performance (and reliability); secondly, they allow the effects of introducing redundancy into a computation to be assessed

Calibration of time of flight detectors using laser-driven neutron source

Calibration of three scintillators (EJ232Q, BC422Q, and EJ410) in a time-of-flight arrangement using a laser drive-neutron source is presented. The three plastic scintillator detectors were calibrated with gamma insensitive bubble detector spectrometers, which were absolutely calibrated over a wide range of neutron energies ranging from sub-MeV to 20 MeV. A typical set of data obtained simultaneously by the detectors is shown, measuring the neutron spectrum emitted from a petawatt laser irradiated thin foil.

Refinements to the IntCal09 and Marine09 radiocarbon calibration curves

Radiocarbon dating forms the basis for many Late Quaternary chronologies but, due to the fluctuations in atmospheric levels of 14C, radiocarbon dates require calibration before they can be compared and/or combined with date estimates derived from other dating techniques. New and recently published 14C measurements on independently dated material, such as speleothems, foraminifera, coral and tree-rings, allow the IntCal Working Group to make new estimates of the radiocarbon calibration curves and provide the opportunity to evaluate the offsets observed between records. In addition floating tree-ring 14C chronologies, which are not absolutely dendro-dated, provide evidence for the magnitude of atmospheric 14C variations in different time periods which can be used to refine the calibration curves.

Systematic Uncertainties Associated with the Cosmological Analysis of the First PAN-STARRS1 Type Ia Supernova Sample

We probe the systematic uncertainties from the 113 Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) in the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) sample along with 197 SN Ia from a combination of low-redshift surveys. The companion paper by Rest et al. describes the photometric measurements and cosmological inferences from the PS1 sample. The largest systematic uncertainty stems from the photometric calibration of the PS1 and low-z samples. We increase the sample of observed Calspec standards from 7 to 10 used to define the PS1 calibration system. The PS1 and SDSS-II calibration systems are compared and discrepancies up to ∼0.02 mag are recovered. We find uncertainties in the proper way to treat intrinsic colors and reddening produce differences in the recovered value of w up to 3%. We estimate masses of host galaxies of PS1 supernovae and detect an insignificant difference in distance residuals of the full sample of 0.037 ± 0.031 mag for host galaxies with high and low masses. Assuming flatness and including systematic uncertainties in our analysis of only SNe measurements, we find w = -1.120^+0.360_-0.206(Stat)^+0.269_-0.291(Sys). With additional constraints from Baryon acoustic oscillation, cosmic microwave background (CMB) (Planck) and H₀ measurements, we find w = -1.166^+0.072_-0.069 and Ω_m = 0.280^+0.013_-0.012 (statistical and systematic errors added in quadrature). The significance of the inconsistency with w = -1 depends on whether we use Planck or Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe measurements of the CMB: w_{BAO+H0+SN+WMAP} = -1.124^+0.083_-0.065.

Progress towards improving chronologies for marine sediment records.

The North Atlantic has played a key role in abrupt climate changes due to the sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to the location and strength of deep water formation. It is crucial for modelling future climate change to understand the role of the AMOC in the rapid warming and gradual cooling cycles known as Dansgaard-Oescher (DO) events which are recorded in the Greenland ice cores. However, palaeoceanographic research into DO events has been hampered by the uncertainty in timing due largely to the lack of a precise chronological time frame for marine records. While tephrochronology provides links to the Greenland ice core records at a few points, radiocarbon remains the primary dating method for most marine cores. Due to variations in the atmospheric and oceanic 14C concentration, radiocarbon ages must be calibrated to provide calendric ages. The IntCal Working Group provides a global estimate of ocean 14C ages for calibration of marine radiocarbon dates, but the variability of the surface marine reservoir age in the North Atlantic particularly during Heinrich or DO events, makes calibration uncertain. In addition, the current Marine09 radiocarbon calibration beyond around 15 ka BP is largely based on 'tuning' to the Hulu Cave isotope record, so that the timing of events may not be entirely synchronous with the Greenland ice cores. The use of event-stratigraphy and independent chronological markers such as tephra provide the scope to improve marine radiocarbon reservoir age estimates particularly in the North Atlantic where a number of tephra horizons have been identified in both marine sediments and the Greenland ice cores. Quantification of timescale uncertainties is critical but statistical techniques which can take into account the differential dating between events can improve the precision. Such techniques should make it possible to develop specific marine calibration curves for selected regions.

Calibration of BAS-TR image plate response to high energy (3-300 MeV) carbon ions

The paper presents the calibration of Fuji BAS-TR image plate (IP) response to high energy carbon ions of different charge states by employing an intense laser-driven ion source, which allowed access to carbon energies up to 270 MeV. The calibration method consists of employing a Thomson parabola spectrometer to separate and spectrally resolve different ion species, and a slotted CR-39 solid state detector overlayed onto an image plate for an absolute calibration of the IP signal. An empirical response function was obtained which can be reasonably extrapolated to higher ion energies. The experimental data also show that the IP response is independent of ion charge states.

An age-activity calibration for old low-mass stars

Low-mass stars are highly interesting targets: we are able to detect planets in their habitable zones, and upcoming searches for biomarkers in exoplanet atmospheres will focus on low-mass star systems due to their ubiquity and proximity. We aim to develop an age-activity calibration for old low-mass stars, using wide binary systems consisting of an M or K dwarf and a white dwarf. The age of the system is determined by the WD cooling time plus its progenitor lifetime, yielding reliable ages in the regime >1 Gyr. For an exploratory sample of 7 systems where we have already derived ages, we propose to perform Chandra ACIS-S observations to determine the X-ray luminosities of the M dwarfs and correlate their stellar activity with age. We ask for a total observing time of 110 ks.

Geochronological database and classification system for age uncertainties in Neotropical pollen records.

The newly updated inventory of palaeoecological research in Latin America offers an important overview of sites available for multi-proxy and multi-site purposes. From the collected literature supporting this inventory, we collected all available age model metadata to create a chronological database of 5116 control points (e.g. 14C, tephra, fission track, OSL, 210Pb) from 1097 pollen records. Based on this literature review, we present a summary of chronological dating and reporting in the Neotropics. Difficulties and recommendations for chronology reporting are discussed. Furthermore, for 234 pollen records in northwest South America, a classification system for age uncertainties is implemented based on chronologies generated with updated calibration curves. With these outcomes age models are produced for those sites without an existing chronology, alternative age models are provided for researchers interested in comparing the effects of different calibration curves and age–depth modelling software, and the importance of uncertainty assessments of chronologies is highlighted. Sample resolution and temporal uncertainty of ages are discussed for different time windows, focusing on events relevant for research on centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability. All age models and developed R scripts are publicly available through figshare, including a manual to use the scripts.

Electron-Impact Uncertainty Analysis and its Impact on Certain Temperature Diagnostics

In this study we calculate the electron-impact uncertainties in atomic data for direct ionization and recombination and investigate the role of these uncertainties on spectral diagnostics. We outline a systematic approach to assigning meaningful uncertainties that vary with electron temperature. Once these uncertainty parameters have been evaluated, we can then calculate the uncertainties on key diagnostics through a Monte Carlo routine, using the Astrophysical Emission Code (APEC) [Smith et al. 2001]. We incorporate these uncertainties into well known temperature diagnostics, such as the Lyman alpha versus resonance line ratio and the G ratio. We compare these calculations to a study performed by [Testa et al. 2004], where significant discrepancies in the two diagnostic ratios were observed. We conclude that while the atomic physics uncertainties play a noticeable role in the discrepancies observed by Testa, they do not explain all of them. This indicates that there is another physical process occurring in the system that is not being taken into account. This work is supported in part by the National Science Foundation REU and Department of Defense ASSURE programs under NSF Grant no. 1262851 and by the Smithsonian Institution.