Quantifying the Energy & carbon emissions implications of a 10% electric vehicles target

EU Directive 2009/28/EC on Renewable Energy requires each Member State to ensure 10% of transport energy (excluding aviation and marine transport) comes from renewable sources by 2020 (10% RES-T target). In addition to the anticipated growth in biofuels, this target is expected to be met by the increased electrification of transport coupled with a growing contribution from renewable energy to electricity generation. Energy use in transport accounted for nearly half of Ireland’s total final energy demand and about a third of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2007. Energy use in transport has grown by 6.3% per annum on average in the period 1990 – 2007. This high share and fast growth relative to other countries highlights the challenges Ireland faces in meeting ambitious renewable energy targets. The Irish Government has set a specific target for Electric Vehicles (EV) as part of its strategy to deliver the 10% RES-T target. By 2020, 10% of all vehicles in its transport fleet are to be powered by electricity. This paper quantifies the impacts on energy and carbon dioxide emissions of this 10% EV target by 2020. In order to do this an ‘EV Car Stock’ model was developed to analyse the historical and future make-up of the passenger car portion of the fleet to 2025. Three scenarios for possible take-up in EVs were examined and the associated energy and emissions impacts are quantified. These impacts are then compared to Ireland’s 10% RES-T target and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets for 2020. Two key findings of the study are that the 10% EV target contributes 1.7% to the 10% RES-T target by 2020 and 1.4% to the 20% reduction in Non-ETS emissions by 2020 relative to 2005.

Buckling/post-buckling strength of friction stir welded aircraft stiffened panels

Assembling aircraft stiffened panels using friction stir welding offers potential to reduce fabrication time in comparison to current mechanical fastener assembly, making it economically feasible to select structurally desirable stiffener pitching and novel panel configurations. With such a departure from the traditional fabrication process, much research has been conducted on producing strong reliable welds, with less examination of the impact of welding process residual effects on panel structural behaviour and the development of appropriate design methods. This article significantly expands the available panel level compressive strength knowledge, demonstrating the strength potential of a welded aircraft panel with multiple lateral and longitudinal stiffener bays. An accompanying computational study has determined the most significant process residual effects that influence panel strength and the potential extent of panel degradation. The experimental results have also been used to validate a previously published design method, suggesting accurate predictions can be made if the conventional aerospace design methods are modified to acknowledge the welding altered panel properties.

Numerical and Experimental Investigation of Aircraft Panel Deformations During Riveting Process

In collaboration with Airbus-UK, the dimensional growth of aircraft panels while being riveted with stiffeners is investigated. Small panels are used in this investigation. The stiffeners have been fastened to the panels with rivets and it has been observed that during this operation the panels expand in the longitudinal and transverse directions. It has been observed that the growth is variable and the challenge is to control the riveting process to minimize this variability. In this investigation, the assembly of the small panels and longitudinal stiffeners has been simulated using static stress and nonlinear explicit finite element models. The models have been validated against a limited set of experimental measurements; it was found that more accurate predictions of the riveting process are achieved using explicit finite element models. Yet, the static stress finite element model is more time efficient, and more practical to simulate hundreds of rivets and the stochastic nature of the process. Furthermore, through a series of numerical simulations and probabilistic analyses, the manufacturing process control parameters that influence panel growth have been identified. Alternative fastening approaches were examined and it was found that dimensional growth can be controlled by changing the design of the dies used for forming the rivets.

Assessing the Impact of Technology on Aircraft Systems using Technology Impact Forecasting

In today’s atmosphere of constrained defense spending and reduced research budgets, determining how to allocate resources for research and design has become a critical and challenging task. In the area of aircraft design there are many promising technologies to be explored, yet limited funds with which to explore them. In addition, issues concerning uncertainty in technology readiness as well as the quantification of the impact of a technology (or combinations of technologies), are of key importance during the design process. This paper presents a methodology that details a comprehensive and structured process in which to quantitatively explore the effects of technology for a given baseline aircraft. This process, called Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF), involves the creation of a assessment environment for use in conjunction with defined technology scenarios, and will have a significant impact on resource allocation strategies for defense acquisition. The advantages and limitations of the method are discussed. In addition, an example TIF application, that of an Uninhabited Combat Aerial Vehicle, is presented and serves to illustrate the applicability of this methodology to a military system.

Technology Assessment for a Complex Aircraft System using Technology Scenarios

Military decision makers need to understand and assess the benefits and consequences of their decisions in order to make cost efficient, timely, and successful choices. Technology selection is one such critical decision, especially when considering the design or retrofit of a complex system, such as an aircraft. An integrated and systematic methodology that will support decision-making between technology alternatives and options while assessing the consequences of such decisions is a key enabler. This paper presents and demonstrates, through application to a notional medium range short takeoff and landing (STOL) aircraft, one such enabler: the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The goal of the TIF process is to explore both generic, undefined areas of technology, as well as specific technologies, and assess their potential impacts. This is actualized through the development and use of technology scenarios, and allows the designer to determine where to allocate resources for further technology definition and refinement, as well as provide useful design information. The paper particularly discusses the use of technology scenarios and demonstrates their use in the exploration of seven technologies of varying technology readiness levels.

A Novel Method to Enable Trade-offs Across the Whole Product Life of an Aircraft Using Value Driven Design

The increasing need to understand complex products and systems with long life spans, presents a significant challenge to designers who increasingly require a broader understanding of the operational aspects of the system. This demands an evolution in current design practice, as designers are often constrained to provide a subsystem solution without full knowledge of the global system operation. Recently there has been a push to consider value centric approaches which should facilitate better or more rapid convergence to design solutions with predictable completion schedules. Value Driven Design is one such approach, in which value is used as the system top level objective function. This provides a broader view of the system and enables all sub-systems and components to be designed with a view to the effect on project value. It also has the capacity to include value expressions for more qualitative aspects, such as environmental impact. However, application of the method to date has been restricted to comparing value in a programme where the lifespan is fixed and known a priori. This paper takes a novel view of value driven design through the surplus value objective function, and shows how it can be used to identify key sensitivities to guide designers in design trade-off decisions. By considering a new time based approach it can be used to identify optimum programme life-span and hence allow trade-offs over the whole product life.