129 resultados para 2447: modelling and forecasting
Resumo:
While the incorporation of mathematical and engineering methods has greatly advanced in other areas of the life sciences, they have been under-utilized in the field of animal welfare. Exceptions are beginning to emerge and share a common motivation to quantify 'hidden' aspects in the structure of the behaviour of an individual, or group of animals. Such analyses have the potential to quantify behavioural markers of pain and stress and quantify abnormal behaviour objectively. This review seeks to explore the scope of such analytical methods as behavioural indicators of welfare. We outline four classes of analyses that can be used to quantify aspects of behavioural organization. The underlying principles, possible applications and limitations are described for: fractal analysis, temporal methods, social network analysis, and agent-based modelling and simulation. We hope to encourage further application of analyses of behavioural organization by highlighting potential applications in the assessment of animal welfare, and increasing awareness of the scope for the development of new mathematical methods in this area.
Resumo:
A question central to modelling and, ultimately, managing food webs concerns the dimensionality of trophic niche space, that is, the number of independent traits relevant for determining consumer-resource links. Food-web topologies can often be interpreted by assuming resource traits to be specified by points along a line and each consumer's diet to be given by resources contained in an interval on this line. This phenomenon, called intervality, has been known for 30 years and is widely acknowledged to indicate that trophic niche space is close to one-dimensional. We show that the degrees of intervality observed in nature can be reproduced in arbitrary-dimensional trophic niche spaces, provided that the processes of evolutionary diversification and adaptation are taken into account. Contrary to expectations, intervality is least pronounced at intermediate dimensions and steadily improves towards lower- and higher-dimensional trophic niche spaces.
Resumo:
This paper studies the dynamic pricing problem of selling fixed stock of perishable items over a finite horizon, where the decision maker does not have the necessary historic data to estimate the distribution of uncertain demand, but has imprecise information about the quantity demand. We model this uncertainty using fuzzy variables. The dynamic pricing problem based on credibility theory is formulated using three fuzzy programming models, viz.: the fuzzy expected revenue maximization model, a-optimistic revenue maximization model, and credibility maximization model. Fuzzy simulations for functions with fuzzy parameters are given and embedded into a genetic algorithm to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve these three models. Finally, a real-world example is presented to highlight the effectiveness of the developed model and algorithm.
Resumo:
We study the existence and stability of multisite discrete breathers in two prototypical non-square Klein-Gordon lattices, namely a honeycomb and a hexagonal one. In the honeycomb case we consider six-site configurations and find that for soft potential and positive coupling the out-of-phase breather configuration and the charge-two vortex breather are linearly stable, while the in-phase and charge-one vortex states are unstable. In the hexagonal lattice, we first consider three-site configurations. In the case of soft potential and positive coupling, the in-phase configuration is unstable and the charge-one vortex is linearly stable. The out-of-phase configuration here is found to always be linearly unstable. We then turn to six-site configurations in the hexagonal lattice. The stability results in this case are the same as in the six-site configurations in the honeycomb lattice. For all configurations in both lattices, the stability results are reversed in the setting of either hard potential or negative coupling. The study is complemented by numerical simulations which are in very good agreement with the theoretical predictions. Since neither the form of the on-site potential nor the sign of the coupling parameter involved have been prescribed, this description can accommodate inverse-dispersive systems (e. g. supporting backward waves) such as transverse dust-lattice oscillations in dusty plasma (Debye) crystals or analogous modes in molecular chains.
Resumo:
Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models consist of a process component (survival distribution) preceded by a set of related conditional discrete variables. This paper introduces a DC-Ph model where the conditional component is a classification tree. The approach is utilised for modelling health service capacities by better predicting service times, as captured by Coxian Phase-type distributions, interfaced with results from a classification tree algorithm. To illustrate the approach, a case-study within the healthcare delivery domain is given, namely that of maternity services. The classification analysis is shown to give good predictors for complications during childbirth. Based on the classification tree predictions, the duration of childbirth on the labour ward is then modelled as either a two or three-phase Coxian distribution. The resulting DC-Ph model is used to calculate the number of patients and associated bed occupancies, patient turnover, and to model the consequences of changes to risk status.
Resumo:
Despite the substantial organisational benefits of integrated IT, the implementation of such systems – and particularly Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems – has tended to be problematic, stimulating an extensive body of research into ERP implementation. This research has remained largely separate from the main IT implementation literature. At the same time, studies of IT implementation have generally adopted either a factor or process approach; both have major limitations. To address these imitations, factor and process perspectives are combined here in a unique model of IT implementation. We argue that • the organisational factors which determine successful implementation differ for integrated and traditional, discrete IT • failure to manage these differences is a major source of integrated IT failure. The factor/process model is used as a framework for proposing differences between discrete and integrated IT.
Resumo:
In durable goods markets, many brand name manufacturers, including IBM, HP, Epson, and Lenovo, have adopted dual-channel supply chains to market their products. There is scant literature, however, addressing the product durability and its impact on players’ optimal strategies in a dual-channel supply chain. To fill this void, we consider a two-period dual-channel model in which a manufacturer sells a durable product directly through both a manufacturer-owned e-channel and an independent dealer who adopts a mix of selling and leasing to consumers. Our results show that the manufacturer begins encroaching into the market in Period 1, but the dealer starts withdrawing from the retail channel in Period 2. Moreover, as the direct selling cost decreases, the equilibrium quantities and wholesale prices become quite angular and often nonmonotonic. Among other results, we find that both the dealer and the supply chain may benefit from the manufacturer’s encroachment. Our results also indicate that both the market structure and the nature of competition have an important impact on the player’s (dealer’s) optimal choice of leasing and selling.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study is to survey the use of networks and network-based methods in systems biology. This study starts with an introduction to graph theory and basic measures allowing to quantify structural properties of networks. Then, the authors present important network classes and gene networks as well as methods for their analysis. In the last part of this study, the authors review approaches that aim at analysing the functional organisation of gene networks and the use of networks in medicine. In addition to this, the authors advocate networks as a systematic approach to general problems in systems biology, because networks are capable of assuming multiple roles that are very beneficial connecting experimental data with a functional interpretation in biological terms.
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The state disturbance induced by locally measuring a quantum system yields a signature of nonclassical correlations beyond entanglement. Here, we present a detailed study of such correlations for two-qubit mixed states. To overcome the asymmetry of quantum discord and the unfaithfulness of measurement-induced disturbance (severely overestimating quantum correlations), we propose an ameliorated measurement-induced disturbance as nonclassicality indicator, optimized over joint local measurements, and we derive its closed expression for relevant two-qubit states. We study its analytical relation with discord, and characterize the maximally quantum-correlated mixed states, that simultaneously extremize both quantifiers at given von Neumann entropy: among all two-qubit states, these states possess the most robust quantum correlations against noise.
Resumo:
We discuss the quantum-circuit realization of the state of a nucleon in the scope of simple simmetry groups. Explicit algorithms are presented for the preparation of the state of a neutron or a proton as resulting from the composition of their quark constituents. We estimate the computational resources required for such a simulation and design a photonic network for its implementation. Moreover, we highlight that current work on three-body interactions in lattices of interacting qubits, combined with the measurement-based paradigm for quantum information processing, may also be suitable for the implementation of these nucleonic spin states.
Resumo:
In this paper, we show how interacting and occluding targets can be tackled successfully within a Gaussian approximation. For that purpose, we develop a general expansion of the mean and covariance of the posterior and we consider a first order approximation of it. The proposed method differs from EKF in that neither a non-linear dynamical model nor a non-linear measurement vector to state relation have to be defined, so it works with any kind of interaction potential and likelihood. The approach has been tested on three sequences (10400, 2500, and 400 frames each one). The results show that our approach helps to reduce the number of failures without increasing too much the computation time with respect to methods that do not take into account target interactions.
Resumo:
This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the dominant choice-modelling paradigm based on Random Utility Maximization-theory (RUM-theory). We highlight how RRM-based models provide closed form, logit-type formulations for choice probabilities that allow for capturing semi-compensatory behaviour and choice set-composition effects while being equally parsimonious as their utilitarian counterparts. Using data from a Stated Choice-experiment aimed at identifying valuations of characteristics of nature parks, we compare RRM-based models and RUM-based models in terms of parameter estimates, goodness of fit, elasticities and consequential policy implications.