Long working hours and risk of coronary heart disease and stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of published and unpublished data for 603 838 individuals

Background: Long working hours might increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but prospective evidence is scarce, imprecise, and mostly limited to coronary heart disease. We aimed to assess long working hours as a risk factor for incident coronary heart disease and stroke. 

Methods We identified published studies through a systematic review of PubMed and Embase from inception to Aug 20, 2014. We obtained unpublished data for 20 cohort studies from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) Consortium and open-access data archives. We used cumulative random-effects meta-analysis to combine effect estimates from published and unpublished data. 

Findings We included 25 studies from 24 cohorts in Europe, the USA, and Australia. The meta-analysis of coronary heart disease comprised data for 603 838 men and women who were free from coronary heart disease at baseline; the meta-analysis of stroke comprised data for 528 908 men and women who were free from stroke at baseline. Follow-up for coronary heart disease was 5·1 million person-years (mean 8·5 years), in which 4768 events were recorded, and for stroke was 3·8 million person-years (mean 7·2 years), in which 1722 events were recorded. In cumulative meta-analysis adjusted for age, sex, and socioeconomic status, compared with standard hours (35-40 h per week), working long hours (≥55 h per week) was associated with an increase in risk of incident coronary heart disease (relative risk [RR] 1·13, 95% CI 1·02-1·26; p=0·02) and incident stroke (1·33, 1·11-1·61; p=0·002). The excess risk of stroke remained unchanged in analyses that addressed reverse causation, multivariable adjustments for other risk factors, and different methods of stroke ascertainment (range of RR estimates 1·30-1·42). We recorded a dose-response association for stroke, with RR estimates of 1·10 (95% CI 0·94-1·28; p=0·24) for 41-48 working hours, 1·27 (1·03-1·56; p=0·03) for 49-54 working hours, and 1·33 (1·11-1·61; p=0·002) for 55 working hours or more per week compared with standard working hours (p_trend<0·0001).

Interpretation Employees who work long hours have a higher risk of stroke than those working standard hours; the association with coronary heart disease is weaker. These findings suggest that more attention should be paid to the management of vascular risk factors in individuals who work long hours. 

Pleiotropic analysis of cancer risk loci on esophageal adenocarcinoma risk

Background: Several cancer-associated loci identified from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been associated with risks of multiple cancer sites, suggesting pleiotropic effects. We investigated whether GWAS-identified risk variants for other common cancers are associated with risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) or its precursor, Barrett's esophagus. 

Methods: We examined the associations between risks of EA and Barrett's esophagus and 387 SNPs that have been associated with risks of other cancers, by using genotype imputation data on 2,163 control participants and 3,885 (1,501 EA and 2,384 Barrett's esophagus) case patients from the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Genetic Susceptibility Study, and investigated effect modification by smoking history, body mass index (BMI), and reflux/heartburn. 

Results: After correcting for multiple testing, none of the tested 387 SNPs were statistically significantly associated with risk of EA or Barrett's esophagus. No evidence of effect modification by smoking, BMI, or reflux/heartburn was observed. 

Conclusions: Genetic risk variants for common cancers identified from GWAS appear not to be associated with risks of EA or Barrett's esophagus. 

Impact: To our knowledge, this is the first investigation of pleiotropic genetic associations with risks of EA and Barrett's esophagus.

A Cyber-Physical Security Analysis of Synchronous-Islanded Microgrid Operation

Cyber-security research in the field of smart grids is often performed with a focus on either the power and control domain or the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) domain. The characteristics of the power equipment or ICT domain are commonly not collectively considered. This work provides an analysis of the physical effects of cyber-attacks on microgrids – a smart grid construct that allows continued power supply when disconnected from a main grid. Different types of microgrid operations are explained (connected, islanded and synchronous-islanding) and potential cyber-attacks and their physical effects are analyzed. A testbed that is based on physical power and ICT equipment is presented to validate the results in both the physical and ICT domain.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis for Security-Related Information Gathering

Analysing public sentiment about future events, such as demonstration or parades, may provide valuable information while estimating the level of disruption and disorder during these events. Social media, such as Twitter or Facebook, provides views and opinions of users related to any public topics. Consequently, sentiment analysis of social media content may be of interest to different public sector organisations, especially in the security and law enforcement sector. In this paper we present a lexicon-based approach to sentiment analysis of Twitter content. The algorithm performs normalisation of the sentiment in an effort to provide intensity of the sentiment rather than positive/negative label. Following this, we evaluate an evidence-based combining function that supports the classification process in cases when positive and negative words co-occur in a tweet. Finally, we illustrate a case study examining the relation between sentiment of twitter posts related to English Defence League and the level of disorder during the EDL related events.

GEP analysis validates high risk MDS and acute myeloid leukemia post MDS mice models and highlights novel dysregulated pathways

BACKGROUND: In spite of the recent discovery of genetic mutations in most myelodysplasic (MDS) patients, the pathophysiology of these disorders still remains poorly understood, and only few in vivo models are available to help unravel the disease.

METHODS: We performed global specific gene expression profiling and functional pathway analysis in purified Sca1+ cells of two MDS transgenic mouse models that mimic human high-risk MDS (HR-MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) post MDS, with NRASD12 and BCL2 transgenes under the control of different promoters MRP8NRASD12/tethBCL-2 or MRP8[NRASD12/hBCL-2], respectively.

RESULTS: Analysis of dysregulated genes that were unique to the diseased HR-MDS and AML post MDS mice and not their founder mice pointed first to pathways that had previously been reported in MDS patients, including DNA replication/damage/repair, cell cycle, apoptosis, immune responses, and canonical Wnt pathways, further validating these models at the gene expression level. Interestingly, pathways not previously reported in MDS were discovered. These included dysregulated genes of noncanonical Wnt pathways and energy and lipid metabolisms. These dysregulated genes were not only confirmed in a different independent set of BM and spleen Sca1+ cells from the MDS mice but also in MDS CD34+ BM patient samples.

CONCLUSIONS: These two MDS models may thus provide useful preclinical models to target pathways previously identified in MDS patients and to unravel novel pathways highlighted by this study.

Markers of vitamin D exposure and oesophageal cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Vitamin D has been associated with reduced risk of many cancers, but evidence for oesophageal cancer is mixed. To clarify the role of Vitamin D, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the association of Vitamin D exposures and oesophageal neoplasia, including adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), Barrett's oesophagus and squamous dysplasia. Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science were searched from inception to September 2015. Fifteen publications in relation to circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (n=3), Vitamin D intake (n=4), UVB exposure (n=1), and genetic factors (n=7) were retrieved. Higher 25-OHD was associated with increased risk of cancer (adenocarcinoma or SCC, OR=1.39;95%CI:1.04-1.74), with the majority of participants coming from China. No association was observed between Vitamin D intake and risk of cancer overall (OR=1.03;0.65-1.42); however, a non-significantly increased risk for adenocarcinoma (OR=1.45;0.65-2.24) and non-significantly decreased risk for SCC (OR=0.80;0.48-1.12) were observed. One study reported a decreased risk of adenocarcinoma with higher UVB exposure. A decreased risk was found for VDR haplotype rs2238135(G)/rs1989969(T) carriers, OR=0.45;0.00-0.91, and a suggestive association was observed for rs2107301. No consistent associations were observed between Vitamin D exposures and occurrence of oesophageal lesions. Further adequately powered, well-designed studies are needed before conclusions can be made.

The Risk Implications of Globalisation: An Exploratory Analysis of 105 Major Industrial Incidents (1971–2010)

This paper revisits work on the socio-political amplification of risk, which predicts that those living in developing countries are exposed to greater risk than residents of developed nations. This prediction contrasts with the neoliberal expectation that market driven improvements in working conditions within industrialising/developing nations will lead to global convergence of hazard exposure levels. It also contradicts the assumption of risk society theorists that there will be an ubiquitous increase in risk exposure across the globe, which will primarily affect technically more advanced countries. Reviewing qualitative evidence on the impact of structural adjustment reforms in industrialising countries, the export of waste and hazardous waste recycling to these countries and new patterns of domestic industrialisation, the paper suggests that workers in industrialising countries continue to face far greater levels of hazard exposure than those of developed countries. This view is confirmed when a data set including 105 major multi-fatality industrial disasters from 1971 to 2000 is examined. The paper concludes that there is empirical support for the predictions of socio-political amplification of risk theory, which finds clear expression in the data in a consistent pattern of significantly greater fatality rates per industrial incident in industrialising/developing countries.

Quantification of the smoking-associated cancer risk with rate advancement periods: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the most important individual risk factor for many cancer sites but its association with breast and prostate cancer is not entirely clear. Rate advancement periods (RAPs) may enhance communication of smoking related risk to the general population. Thus, we estimated RAPs for the association of smoking exposure (smoking status, time since smoking cessation, smoking intensity, and duration) with total and site-specific (lung, breast, colorectal, prostate, gastric, head and neck, and pancreatic) cancer incidence and mortality.

METHODS: This is a meta-analysis of 19 population-based prospective cohort studies with individual participant data for 897,021 European and American adults. For each cohort we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of smoking exposure with cancer outcomes using Cox regression adjusted for a common set of the most important potential confounding variables. RAPs (in years) were calculated as the ratio of the logarithms of the HRs for a given smoking exposure variable and age. Meta-analyses were employed to summarize cohort-specific HRs and RAPs.

RESULTS: Overall, 140,205 subjects had a first incident cancer, and 53,164 died from cancer, during an average follow-up of 12 years. Current smoking advanced the overall risk of developing and dying from cancer by eight and ten years, respectively, compared with never smokers. The greatest advancements in cancer risk and mortality were seen for lung cancer and the least for breast cancer. Smoking cessation was statistically significantly associated with delays in the risk of cancer development and mortality compared with continued smoking.

CONCLUSIONS: This investigation shows that smoking, even among older adults, considerably advances, and cessation delays, the risk of developing and dying from cancer. These findings may be helpful in more effectively communicating the harmful effects of smoking and the beneficial effect of smoking cessation.

STPA-SafeSec: Safety and Security Analysis for Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems tightly integrate physical processes and information and communication technologies. As today’s critical infrastructures, e.g., the power grid or water distribution networks, are complex cyber-physical systems, ensuring their safety and security becomes of paramount importance. Traditional safety analysis methods, such as HAZOP, are ill-suited to assess these systems. Furthermore, cybersecurity vulnerabilities are often not considered critical, because their effects on the physical processes are not fully understood. In this work, we present STPA-SafeSec, a novel analysis methodology for both safety and security. Its results show the dependencies between cybersecurity vulnerabilities and system safety. Using this information, the most effective mitigation strategies to ensure safety and security of the system can be readily identified. We apply STPA-SafeSec to a use case in the power grid domain, and highlight its benefits.