Model selection for prognostic time-to-event gene signature discovery with applications in early breast cancer data

Model selection between competing models is a key consideration in the discovery of prognostic multigene signatures. The use of appropriate statistical performance measures as well as verification of biological significance of the signatures is imperative to maximise the chance of external validation of the generated signatures. Current approaches in time-to-event studies often use only a single measure of performance in model selection, such as logrank test p-values, or dichotomise the follow-up times at some phase of the study to facilitate signature discovery. In this study we improve the prognostic signature discovery process through the application of the multivariate partial Cox model combined with the concordance index, hazard ratio of predictions, independence from available clinical covariates and biological enrichment as measures of signature performance. The proposed framework was applied to discover prognostic multigene signatures from early breast cancer data. The partial Cox model combined with the multiple performance measures were used in both guiding the selection of the optimal panel of prognostic genes and prediction of risk within cross validation without dichotomising the follow-up times at any stage. The signatures were successfully externally cross validated in independent breast cancer datasets, yielding a hazard ratio of 2.55 [1.44, 4.51] for the top ranking signature.

An exploration of business model development in the commercialization of technology innovations

Research on business model development has focused on the relationships between elements of value conceptualization and organization having a linear sequence in which business models are first designed and then implemented. Another stream of research points to business model development with these elements interacting in a cyclical manner. There is a need to improve our understanding of the connective mechanisms and dynamics involved in business model development, particularly from the challenging perspective of commercializing innovations. The aim of this paper was to explore business model development during the commercialization of innovations through a case-based qualitative study. This study found from four case studies that specific elements of business model development, representative of the conceptualization of value and organizing for value creation, integrate in a dynamic and cyclical process in the commercialization of technology innovations. The study provides empirical evidence that adds new insights to literature on sequential and more interactive processes of business model development. It also contributes to literature on business model development and particularly how it relates to the commercialization of innovations.

Assessing parenting capacity in child protection: towards a knowledge-based model

The assessment of parenting capacity continues to engender public concern in cases of suspected harm to children. This paper outlines a model for approaching this task based on the application of three key domains of knowledge in social work relating to facts, theory and practice wisdom. The McMaster Model of Family Assessment is identified out of this process and reworked to give it a sharper focus on parenting roles and responsibilities. Seven formative dimensions of parenting are then elicited and combined with an analytical process of identifying strengths, concerns, prospects for growth and impact on child outcomes. The resulting assessment framework, it is argued, adds rigour to professional judgements about parenting capacity and enhances formulations on risk in child protection.

Counselling for sight loss: Using systematic case study research to build a client informed practice model

There is compelling evidence to suggest that acquired sight loss negatively impacts on emotional well-being. Despite increasing recognition of the need to provide emotional support for people with sight loss, we still do not fully understand what counselling interventions help and why they help. The aim of this study was to examine the process and outcome of counselling for a 70-year-old client who had experienced complete, irreversible, post-operative sight loss in order to gain a deeper understanding of client-defined helpful aspects of therapy. A Hermeneutic Single-Case Efficacy Design study was undertaken having received ethical approval from the University's Research Ethics Committee. The client received six sessions of counselling from a vision-impaired counsellor working within a pluralistic framework. Measures were completed by the client at every session, as well as at pre-and post-counselling. All sessions were recorded and transcribed. The client also participated in pre-and post-counselling interviews. Data formed a rich case record that was analysed by a quasi-judicial enquiry team. Results suggested that this was a successful outcome case. Client-defined helpful aspects of therapy were (1) feeling understood; (2) being able to express emotions around the loss of sight; (3) finding a new identity; (4) finding ways to cope with fear, loss, dependency, and other people's perceptions; (5) exploring the possibility of a positive future without sight; (6) making sense of things; and (7) finding ways to become more socially connected. Relevant therapeutic tasks are proposed, and four key aspects of therapy are identified, which may have implications for the development of a practice model.

A Sensitivity Approach for Eliminating Clashes from Computer Aided Design Model Assemblies

Clashes occur when components in an assembly unintentionally violate others. If clashes are not identified and designed out before manufacture, product function will be reduced or substantial cost will be incurred in rework. This paper introduces a novel approach for eliminating clashes by identifying which parameters defining the part features in a computer aided design (CAD) assembly need to change and by how much. Sensitivities are calculated for each parameter defining the part and the assembly as the change in clash volume due to a change in each parameter value. These sensitivities give an indication of important parameters and are used to predict the optimum combination of changes in each parameter to eliminate the clash. Consideration is given to the fact that it is sometimes preferable to modify some components in an assembly rather than others and that some components in an assembly cannot be modified as the designer does not have control over their shape. Successful elimination of clashes has been demonstrated in a number of example assemblies.

Towards utilizing Model-Driven Engineering of Composite Applications for business performance analysis

Composite Applications on top of SAPs implementation of SOA (Enterprise SOA) enable the extension of already existing business logic. In this paper we show, based on a case study, how Model-Driven Engineering concepts are applied in the development of such Composite Applications. Our Case Study extends a back-end business process which is required for the specific needs of a demo company selling wine. We use this to describe how the business centric models specifying the modified business behaviour of our case study can be utilized for business performance analysis where most of the actions are performed by humans. In particular, we apply a refined version of Model-Driven Performance Engineering that we proposed in our previous work and motivate which business domain specifics have to be taken into account for business performance analysis. We additionally motivate the need for performance related decision support for domain experts, who generally lack performance related skills. Such a support should offer visual guidance about what should be changed in the design and resource mapping to get improved results with respect to modification constraints and performance objectives, or objectives for time.

Partial least squares model for dynamic rating of overhead line in wind intensive areas based on field measurements

This paper presents a statistical model for the thermal behaviour of the line model based on lab tests and field measurements. This model is based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) multi regression and is used for the Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) in a wind intensive area. DLR provides extra capacity to the line, over the traditional seasonal static rating, which makes it possible to defer the need for reinforcement the existing network or building new lines. The proposed PLS model has a number of appealing features; the model is linear, so it is straightforward to use for predicting the line rating for future periods using the available weather forecast. Unlike the available physical models, the proposed model does not require any physical parameters of the line, which avoids the inaccuracies resulting from the errors and/or variations in these parameters. The developed model is compared with physical model, the Cigre model, and has shown very good accuracy in predicting the conductor temperature as well as in determining the line rating for future time periods. 

Lightweight Risk Management in Agile projects

Risk management in software engineering has become a recognized project management practice but it seems that not all companies are systematically applying it. At the same time, agile methods have become popular, partly because proponents claim that agile methods implicitly reduce risks due
to, for example, more frequent and earlier feedback, shorter periods of development time and easier prediction of cost. Therefore, there is a need to investigate how risk management can be usable in iterative and evolutionary software development processes. This paper investigates the gathering of empirical data on risk management from the project environment and presents
a novel approach to manage risk in agile projects. Our approach is based on a prototype tool, Agile Risk Tool (ART). This tool reduces human effort in risk management by using software agents to identify, assess and monitor risk, based on input and data collected from the project environment and by applying
some designated rules. As validation, groups of student project data were used to provide evidence of the efficacy of this approach. We demonstrate the approach and the feasibility of using a lightweight risk management tool to alert, assess and monitor risk with reduced human effort.

Shortening design time through multiplatform simulations with a portable OpenCL golden-model: the LDPC decoder case

Hardware designers and engineers typically need to explore a multi-parametric design space in order to find the best configuration for their designs using simulations that can take weeks to months to complete. For example, designers of special purpose chips need to explore parameters such as the optimal bitwidth and data representation. This is the case for the development of complex algorithms such as Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC) decoders used in modern communication systems. Currently, high-performance computing offers a wide set of acceleration options, that range from multicore CPUs to graphics processing units (GPUs) and FPGAs. Depending on the simulation requirements, the ideal architecture to use can vary. In this paper we propose a new design flow based on OpenCL, a unified multiplatform programming model, which accelerates LDPC decoding simulations, thereby significantly reducing architectural exploration and design time. OpenCL-based parallel kernels are used without modifications or code tuning on multicore CPUs, GPUs and FPGAs. We use SOpenCL (Silicon to OpenCL), a tool that automatically converts OpenCL kernels to RTL for mapping the simulations into FPGAs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that a single, unmodified OpenCL code is used to target those three different platforms. We show that, depending on the design parameters to be explored in the simulation, on the dimension and phase of the design, the GPU or the FPGA may suit different purposes more conveniently, providing different acceleration factors. For example, although simulations can typically execute more than 3x faster on FPGAs than on GPUs, the overhead of circuit synthesis often outweighs the benefits of FPGA-accelerated execution.

Universal tight binding model for chemical reactions in solution and at surfaces. I. Organic molecules

As is now well established, a first order expansion of the Hohenberg-Kohn total energy density functional about a trial input density, namely, the Harris-Foulkes functional, can be used to rationalize a non self consistent tight binding model. If the expansion is taken to second order then the energy and electron density matrix need to be calculated self consistently and from this functional one can derive a charge self consistent tight binding theory. In this paper we have used this to describe a polarizable ion tight binding model which has the benefit of treating charge transfer in point multipoles. This admits a ready description of ionic polarizability and crystal field splitting. It is necessary in constructing such a model to find a number of parameters that mimic their more exact counterparts in the density functional theory. We describe in detail how this is done using a combination of intuition, exact analytical fitting, and a genetic optimization algorithm. Having obtained model parameters we show that this constitutes a transferable scheme that can be applied rather universally to small and medium sized organic molecules. We have shown that the model gives a good account of static structural and dynamic vibrational properties of a library of molecules, and finally we demonstrate the model's capability by showing a real time simulation of an enolization reaction in aqueous solution. In two subsequent papers, we show that the model is a great deal more general in that it will describe solvents and solid substrates and that therefore we have created a self consistent quantum mechanical scheme that may be applied to simulations in heterogeneous catalysis.

Consideration of coastal risk in the Irish spatial planning process

The vulnerability of coastal areas to associated hazards is increasing due to population growth, development pressure and climate change. It is incumbent on coastal governance regimes to address the vulnerability of coastal inhabitants to these hazards. This is especially so at the local level where development planning and control has a direct impact on the vulnerability of coastal communities. To reduce the vulnerability of coastal populations, risk mitigation and adaptation strategies need to be built into local spatial planning processes. Local government, however, operates within a complex hierarchal governance framework which may promote or limit particular actions. It is important, therefore, to understand how local coastal planning practices are shaped by national and supranational entities. Local governments also have to respond to the demands of local populations. Consequently, it is important to understand local populations’ perceptions of coastal risk and its management. Adopting an in-depth study of coastal planning in County Mayo, Ireland, this paper evaluates: (a) how European and national policies and legislation shape coastal risk management at local level; (b) the incorporation of risk management strategies into local plans; and (c) local perception of coastal risks and risk management. Despite a strong steer from supranational and national legislation and policy, statutory local plans are found to be lacking in appropriate risk mitigation or adaptation strategies. Local residents appear to be lulled into a sense of complacency towards these risks because of the low level of attention afforded to them by the local planning authorities. To avoid potentially disastrous consequences for local residents and businesses, it is imperative that this situation is redressed urgently. Based on our analysis, we recommend: the development and implementation of a national ICZM strategy, supported by detailed local ICZM plans; and obliging local government to address known risks in their plans rather than defer them to project level decision making.

The need for qualitative methodologies in cancer cachexia research

Background: Cancer cachexia is not well understood or managed in clinical practice (Delmore 2000; Poole and Froggatt 2002). Whilst a dedicated effort has been made towards understanding the biological processes of the syndrome, little attention has been paid to its multidimensional impact. This is despite previous qualitative research, enriching our understanding of the holistic impact of the syndrome which traditional quantitative methods could not have uncovered (Reid 2007).

Aim: The aim of this study is to determine the adequacy of the existing clinical knowledge base of cancer cachexia management.

Methods: A systematic critical review of the literature on cancer cachexia was undertaken.

Results: There is a need to develop protocols for care delivery, which move beyond a purely biological approach to care towards a more holistic approach. This can only be achieved by gaining the perspectives of those who are involved in care delivery to advanced cancer patients with cachexia and their families using qualitative methodologies.

Conclusions: Cancer cachexia is a complex, challenging syndrome, which must be understood from a holistic bio-psychosocial model of care in order to meet the multidimensional needs of this client population. The perspectives of those involved in care delivery is required in order to contribute to a knowledge base which will inform the development of interventions directed at empowering patients and their families to understand cancer cachexia and recognise it as part of the disease process.

Does vicarious traumatisation affect oncology nurses?:A literature review

It is widely documented that nurses experience work-related stress [Quine, L., 1998. Effects of stress in an NHS trust: a study. Nursing Standard 13 (3), 36-41; Charnley, E., 1999. Occupational stress in the newly qualified staff nurse. Nursing Standard 13 (29), 32-37; McGrath, A., Reid, N., Boore, J., 2003. Occupational stress in nursing. International Journal of Nursing Studies 40, 555-565; McVicar, A., 2003. Workplace stress in nursing: a literature review. Journal of Advanced Nursing 44 (6), 633-642; Bruneau, B., Ellison, G., 2004. Palliative care stress in a UK community hospital: evaluation of a stress-reduction programme. International Journal of Palliative Nursing 10 (6), 296-304; Jenkins, R., Elliott, P., 2004. Stressors, burnout and social support: nurses in acute mental health settings. Journal of Advanced Nursing 48 (6), 622-631], with cancer nursing being identified as a particularly stressful occupation [Hinds, P.S., Sanders, C.B., Srivastava, D.K., Hickey, S., Jayawardene, D., Milligan, M., Olsen, M.S., Puckett, P., Quargnenti, A., Randall, E.A., Tyc, V., 1998. Testing the stress-response sequence model in paediatric oncology nursing. Journal of Advanced Nursing 28 (5), 1146-1157; Barnard, D., Street, A., Love, A.W., 2006. Relationships between stressors, work supports and burnout among cancer nurses. Cancer Nursing 29 (4), 338-345]. Terminologies used to capture this stress are burnout [Pines, A.M., and Aronson, E., 1988. Career Burnout: Causes and Cures. Free Press, New York], compassion stress [Figley, C.R., 1995. Compassion Fatigue. Brunner/Mazel, New York], emotional contagion [Miller, K.I., Stiff, J.B., Ellis, B.H., 1988. Communication and empathy as precursors to burnout among human service workers. Communication Monographs 55 (9), 336-341] or simply the cost of caring (Figley, 1995). However, in the mental health field such as psychology and counselling, there is terminology used to captivate this impact, vicarious traumatisation. Vicarious traumatisation is a process through which the therapist's inner experience is negatively transformed through empathic engagement with client's traumatic material [Pearlman, L.A., Saakvitne, K.W., 1995a. Treating therapists with vicarious traumatization and secondary traumatic stress disorders. In: Figley, C.R. (Ed.), Compassion Fatigue: Coping with Secondary Traumatic Stress Disorder in Those Who Treat the Traumatized. Brunner/Mazel, New York, pp. 150-177]. Trauma not only affects individuals who are primarily present, but also those with whom they discuss their experience. If an individual has been traumatised as a result of a cancer diagnosis and shares this impact with oncology nurses, there could be a risk of vicarious traumatisation in this population. However, although Thompson [2003. Vicarious traumatisation: do we adequately support traumatised staff? The Journal of Cognitive Rehabilitation 24-25] suggests that vicarious traumatisation is a broad term used for workers from any profession, it has not yet been empirically determined if oncology nurses experience vicarious traumatisation. This purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of vicarious traumatisation and argue that it should be explored in oncology nursing. The review will highlight that empirical research in vicarious traumatisation is largely limited to the mental health professions, with a strong recommendation for the need to empirically determine whether this concept exists in oncology nursing.

Assessing the environmental fate of selected polybrominated diphenyl ethers in the region surrounding the Zhuoshui River of Taiwan based on an Equilibrium Constant fugacity model

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are a group of flame retardants that have been in use since the 1970s. They are included in the list of hazardous substances known as persistent organic pollutants (POPs) because they are extremely hazardous to the environment and human health. PBDEs have been extensively used in industry and manufacturing in Taiwan, thus its citizens are at high risk of exposure to these chemicals.
An assessment of the environmental fate of these compounds in the Zhuoshui river and Changhua County regions of western Taiwan, and also including the adjacent area of the Taiwan Strait, was conducted for three high risk congeners, BDE-47, -99 and -209, to obtain information regarding the partitioning, advection, transfer and long range transport potential of the PBDEs in order to identify the level of risk posed by the pollutants in this region.
The results indicate that large amounts of PBDEs presently reside in all model compartments – air, soil, water, and sediment – with particularly high levels found in air and especially in sediment. The high levels found in sediment, particularly for BDE-209, are significant, since there is the threat of these pollutants entering the food chain, either directly through benthic feeding, or through resuspension and subsequent feeding in the pelagic region of the water column which is a distinct possibility in the strong currents found within the Taiwan Strait. Another important result is that a substantial portion of emissions leave the model domain directly through advection, particularly for BDE-47 (58%) and BDE-209 (75%), thus posing a risk to adjacent communities.
Model results were generally in reasonable agreement with available measured concentrations. In air, model concentrations are in reasonably good agreement with available measured values. For both BDE-47 and -99, model concentrations are a factor of 2-3 higher and BDE-209 within the range of measured values. In soil, model results are somewhat less than measured values. In sediment, model results are at the high end of measured values.

The Impact of Extension and Ecosystem Services on Smallholders’ Credit Constraint.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers
in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in
rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that
are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan
Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse
effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s
climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer's access to formal credit. This
study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs
signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data
on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem
services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting
Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory,
particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access
formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services
training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which
may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST
program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market,
education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance
institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records
enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less
interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may
be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the
availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found
to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension
services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation
agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural
financing.