83 resultados para probability of precocious pregnancy


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Many AMS systems can measure 14C, 13C and 12C simultaneously thus providing δ13C values which can be used for fractionation normalization without the need for offline 13C /12C measurements on isotope ratio mass spectrometers (IRMS). However AMS δ13C values on our 0.5MV NEC Compact Accelerator often differ from IRMS values on the same material by 4-5‰ or more. It has been postulated that the AMS δ13C values account for the potential graphitization and machine induced fractionation, in addition to natural fractionation, but how much does this affect the 14C ages or F14C? We present an analysis of F14C as a linear least squares fit with AMS δ13C results for several of our secondary standards. While there are samples for which there is an obvious correlation between AMS δ13C and F14C, as quantified with the calculated probability of no correlation, we find that the trend lies within one standard deviation of the variance on our F14C measurements. Our laboratory produces both zinc and hydrogen reduced graphite, and we present our results for each type. Additionally, we show the variance on our AMS δ13C measurements of our secondary standards.

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Purpose Previously, it has been reported that molecular mobility determines the rate of molecular approach to crystal surfaces, while entropy relates to the probability of that approaching molecule having the desirable configuration for further growth of the existing crystal; and the free energy dictates the probability of that molecule not returning to the liquid phase1. If we plot the crystal growth rate and viscosity of a supercooled liquid in a log-log format, the relationship between the two is linear, indicating the influence viscosity has upon crystal growth rate. However, such approximation has been derived from pure drug compounds and it is apparent that further understanding of crystallization from drug-polymer solid dispersion is required in order to stabilise drugs embedded within amorphous polymeric solid dispersions. Methods Mixtures of felodipine and polymer (HPMCAS-HF, PVPK15 and Soluplus®) at specified compositions were prepared using a Restch MM200 ball mill. To examine crystal growth within amorphous solid dispersions, samples were prepared by melting 5-10 mg of ball milled mixture at 150°C for 3-5 minutes on a glass slip pre-cleaned with methanol and acetone. All prepared samples were confirmed to be crystal free by visual observation using a polarised light microscope (Olympus BX50). Prepared samples were stored at 0% RH (P2O5), inside desiccators, maintained in ovens at 80°C. For the dynamic viscosity measurement, approximately 100-200mg ball milled mixture was heated on the base plate of a rotational rheometer at 150°C for 5 minutes and the top plate was lowered to a defined gap to form a good contact with the material. The sandwiched amorphous material was heated to 80°C and the viscosity was measured. Results The equation was used to probe the correlation of viscosity to crystal growth rate. In comparison to the value of xi in log-log equation reported from pure drug compound, a value of 1.63 was obtained for FD-polymer solid dispersions irrespective of the polymer involved. &#8733 Conclusion The high xi value suggests stronger viscosity dependence may exist for amorphous FD once incorporated with amorphous polymer.

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We previously reported a randomized trial comparing Cyclosporin-A (CsA) and short-term methotrexate versus CsA alone for graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) prophylaxis in 71 patients undergoing allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) from a human leucocyte antigen-identical sibling for severe aplastic anaemia (SAA). We found a better survival in the group receiving the two-drug prophylaxis regimen with no significant difference in the probability of developing GvHD between the two groups. The present study details chimaeric analysis and its influence on survival and GvHD occurrence in 45 of the original 71 patients in whom serial samples were available. Analysis was carried out in a blinded prospective manner. Seventy-two per cent achieved complete donor chimaerism (DC), 11% stable mixed chimaerism (SMC) and 17% progressive mixed chimaerism (PMC). The overall 5-year survival probability was 82% (+/-11%) with a significant survival advantage (P = 0.0009) in DC or SMC compared to those with PMC. Chronic GvHD was more frequent in DC patients, whereas no patient with SMC developed chronic GvHD. Graft failure occurred in 50% of the PMC group. This study demonstrates the relevance of chimaerism analysis in patients receiving HSCT for SAA and confirms the occurrence of mixed chimaerism in a significant proportion of recipients.

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A randomized trial was carried out comparing cyclosporin A (CsA) and short-term methotrexate (MTX) versus CsA alone for graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis in patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) undergoing allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) from a compatible sibling. Seventy-one patients (median age, 19 years; range, 4-46 years) were randomized to receive either CsA and MTX or CsA alone for the first 3 weeks after BMT. Subsequently, both groups received CsA orally, with gradual drug reduction until discontinuation 8 to 12 months after BMT. Patients randomized in both arms had comparable characteristics and received the same preparative regimen (ie, cyclophosphamide 200 mg/kg over 4 days). The median time for neutrophil engraftment was 17 days (range, 11-31 days) and 12 days (range, 4-45 days) for patients in the CsA/MTX group and the CsA alone group, respectively (P =.01). No significant difference was observed in the probability of either grade 2, grade 3, or grade 4 acute GVHD or chronic GVHD developing in the 2 groups. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of 1-year transplantation-related mortality rates for patients given either CsA/MTX or CsA alone were 3% and 15%, respectively (P =.07). With a median follow-up of 48 months from BMT, the 5-year survival probability is 94% for patients in the CsA/MTX group and 78% for those in the CsA alone group (P =. 05). These data indicate that the use of CsA with MTX is associated with improved survival in patients with SAA who receive transplants from compatible siblings. (Blood. 2000;96:1690-1697)

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Murid gammaherpesvirus 4 (MuHV-4) is widely used as a small animal model for understanding gammaherpesvirus infections in man. However, there have been no epidemiological studies of the virus in wild populations of small mammals. As MuHV-4 both infects cells associated with the respiratory and immune systems and attempts to evade immune control via various molecular mechanisms, infection may reduce immunocompetence with potentially serious fitness consequences for individuals. Here we report a longitudinal study of antibody to MuHV-4 in a mixed assemblage of bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) and wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) in the UK. The study was conducted between April 2001 and March 2004. Seroprevalence was higher in wood mice than bank voles, supporting earlier work that suggested wood mice were the major host even though the virus was originally isolated from a bank vole. Analyses of both the probability of having antibodies and the probability of initial seroconversion indicated no clear seasonal pattern or relationship with host density. Instead, infection risk was most closely associated with individual characteristics, with heavier males having the highest risk. This may reflect individual variation in susceptibility, potentially related to variability in the ability to mount an effective immune response.

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This paper uses discrete choice models, supported by GIS data, to analyse the National Land Use Database, a register of more than 21,000 English brownfields - previously used sites with or without contamination that are currently unused or underused. Using spatial discrete choice models, including the first application of a spatial probit latent class model with class-specific neighbourhood effects, we find evidence of large local differences in the determinants of brownfields redevelopment in England and that the reuse decisions of adjacent sites affect the reuse of a site. We also find that sites with a history of industrial activities, large sites, and sites that are located in the poorest and bleakest areas of cities and regions of England are more difficult to redevelop. In particular, we find that the probability of reusing a brownfield increases by up to 8.5% for a site privately owned compared to a site publicly owned and between 15% - 30% if a site is located in London compared to the North West of England. We suggest that local tailored policies are more suitable than regional or national policies to boost the reuse of brownfield sites.

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Parasitism is hypothesized to reduce reproductive success in heavily parasitized males because females
may preferentially mate with less parasitized males (parasite-mediated sexual selection) or parasites may compromise
male competitiveness. In marine systems, this hypothesis is largely unexplored. This paper provides the first confirmed record of a copepod ectoparasite (Caligus buechlerae Hewitt 1964) on the common triplefin (Forsterygion lapillum) and evaluates the hypothesis that males parasitized with C. buechlerae experience lower reproductive success than unparasitized males (as determined
by the presence and area of eggs within male nests). We found that 38 % of males we surveyed were infected with
at least one C. buechlerae, with a median of two individuals per infected male. About 32 % of males were defending
eggs, with 62.5 % of those males infected with at least one parasite. Males of greater total length (TL) were both
more likely to be infected and more likely to be defending eggs. However, when statistically accounting for the effects
of TL, parasite infection had no effect on the probability of defending eggs, or the average surface area of eggs when
present. Positive covariation in fish length, the presence of eggs and parasite infection observed here potentially suggest
that the importance of parasitic infection on reproductive success may depend upon the strength of selection for larger male body size. Our study is one of the few studies to investigate the effects of ectoparasites on reproductive success in reef fish and also provides a quantitative measure of infection for a widespread species within New Zealand.

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Background: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.

Methods: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.
Findings: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women.

Interpretation: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.