Predictive markers for colorectal cancer:current status and future prospects

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer death in the United States. Although there is clear evidence of the benefit of chemotherapy in adjuvant and metastatic settings, its use continues to be suboptimal because of intrinsic or acquired drug resistance. 5-Fluorouracil continues to be the mainstay of CRC therapy, and combinations with newer chemotherapeutic agents such as irinotecan and oxaliplatin have resulted in improved response rates and survival. The role of other agents including cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors, epidermal growth factor receptor, and farnsyl transferase inhibitors remains to be elucidated. Despite these improvements, many patients undergo chemotherapy without benefit. Increased understanding of the biology of CRC has led to the identification of prognostic markers that may help identify patients who will benefit from chemotherapy. Furthermore, studies have also begun to identify markers that predict whether a tumor will respond to a particular chemotherapy. The ultimate goal of this research is to prospectively identify patients who should receive chemotherapy and, thus, to tailor treatment to the molecular profile of the tumor and patient. Such an approach has the potential to dramatically improve response rates. This review highlights potentially important prognostic and predictive factors in CRC and discusses the potential for their use in the treatment of this disease.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Current-induced atomic dynamics, instabilities, and Raman signals: Quasiclassical Langevin equation approach

We derive and employ a semiclassical Langevin equation obtained from path integrals to describe the ionic dynamics of a molecular junction in the presence of electrical current. The electronic environment serves as an effective nonequilibrium bath. The bath results in random forces describing Joule heating, current-induced forces including the nonconservative wind force, dissipative frictional forces, and an effective Lorentz-type force due to the Berry phase of the nonequilibrium electrons. Using a generic two-level molecular model, we highlight the importance of both current-induced forces and Joule heating for the stability of the system. We compare the impact of the different forces, and the wide-band approximation for the electronic structure on our result. We examine the current-induced instabilities (excitation of runaway "waterwheel" modes) and investigate the signature of these in the Raman signals.

Efficiently exploring architectural design spaces via predictive modeling

Architects use cycle-by-cycle simulation to evaluate design choices and understand tradeoffs and interactions among design parameters. Efficiently exploring exponential-size design spaces with many interacting parameters remains an open problem: the sheer number of experiments renders detailed simulation intractable. We attack this problem via an automated approach that builds accurate, confident predictive design-space models. We simulate sampled points, using the results to teach our models the function describing relationships among design parameters. The models produce highly accurate performance estimates for other points in the space, can be queried to predict performance impacts of architectural changes, and are very fast compared to simulation, enabling efficient discovery of tradeoffs among parameters in different regions. We validate our approach via sensitivity studies on memory hierarchy and CPU design spaces: our models generally predict IPC with only 1-2% error and reduce required simulation by two orders of magnitude. We also show the efficacy of our technique for exploring chip multiprocessor (CMP) design spaces: when trained on a 1% sample drawn from a CMP design space with 250K points and up to 55x performance swings among different system configurations, our models predict performance with only 4-5% error on average. Our approach combines with techniques to reduce time per simulation, achieving net time savings of three-four orders of magnitude. Copyright © 2006 ACM.

Real-time approach to the optical properties of solids and nanostructures: Time-dependent Bethe-Salpeter equation

Many-body effects are known to play a crucial role in the electronic and optical properties of solids and nanostructures. Nevertheless, the majority of theoretical and numerical approaches able to capture the influence of Coulomb correlations are restricted to the linear response regime. In this work, we introduce an approach based on a real-time solution of the electronic dynamics. The proposed approach reduces to the well-known Bethe-Salpeter equation in the linear limit regime and it makes it possible, at the same time, to investigate correlation effects in nonlinear phenomena. We show the flexibility and numerical stability of the proposed approach by calculating the dielectric constants and the effect of a strong pulse excitation in bulk h-BN.

Efficient Architectural Design Space Exploration via Predictive Modeling

Efficiently exploring exponential-size architectural design spaces with many interacting parameters remains an open problem: the sheer number of experiments required renders detailed simulation intractable.We attack this via an automated approach that builds accurate predictive models. We simulate sampled points, using results to teach our models the function describing relationships among design parameters. The models can be queried and are very fast, enabling efficient design tradeoff discovery. We validate our approach via two uniprocessor sensitivity studies, predicting IPC with only 1–2% error. In an experimental study using the approach, training on 1% of a 250-K-point CMP design space allows our models to predict performance with only 4–5% error. Our predictive modeling combines well with techniques that reduce the time taken by each simulation experiment, achieving net time savings of three-four orders of magnitude.

In silico prediction of the effects of mutations in the human UDP-galactose 4'-epimerase gene:Towards a predictive framework for type III galactosemia

The enzyme UDP-galactose 4'-epimerase (GALE) catalyses the reversible epimerisation of both UDP-galactose and UDP-N-acetyl-galactosamine. Deficiency of the human enzyme (hGALE) is associated with type III galactosemia. The majority of known mutations in hGALE are missense and private thus making clinical guidance difficult. In this study a bioinformatics approach was employed to analyse the structural effects due to each mutation using both the UDP-glucose and UDP-N-acetylglucosamine bound structures of the wild-type protein. Changes to the enzyme's overall stability, substrate/cofactor binding and propensity to aggregate were also predicted. These predictions were found to be in good agreement with previous in vitro and in vivo studies when data was available and allowed for the differentiation of those mutants that severely impair the enzyme's activity against UDP-galactose. Next this combination of techniques were applied to another twenty-six reported variants from the NCBI dbSNP database that have yet to be studied to predict their effects. This identified p.I14T, p.R184H and p.G302R as likely severely impairing mutations. Although severely impaired mutants were predicted to decrease the protein's stability, overall predicted stability changes only weakly correlated with residual activity against UDP-galactose. This suggests other protein functions such as changes in cofactor and substrate binding may also contribute to the mechanism of impairment. Finally this investigation shows that this combination of different in silico approaches is useful in predicting the effects of mutations and that it could be the basis of an initial prediction of likely clinical severity when new hGALE mutants are discovered.

Parameter estimation and equation formulation in Business Dynamics

System Dynamics enables modelling and simulation of highly non-linear feedback systems to predict future system behaviour. Parameter estimation and equation formulation are techniques in System Dynamics, used to retrieve the values of parameters or the equations for ?ows and/or variables. These techniques are crucial for the annotations and thereafter the simulation. This paper critically examines existing and well established approaches in parameter estimation and equation formulation along with their limitations, identifying performance gaps as well as providing directions for potential future research.

The predictive science of community ecology

Body mass measures provide a tantalizing tool for explaining both variation in emergent community-level patterns and as a mechanistic basis for fundamental processes such as metabolism, consumption and competition. The unification of body mass, abundance and food web (ecological network) structure in community ecology is an effective way to explore future scenarios of environmental change. However, constraints over the availability of data against which to validate model predictions limit the application of size-based approaches. Here, I explore issues over the use of body size for predicting interaction strengths and hence the dynamics of natural ecosystems. The advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and limitations of such approaches are explored. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.