Nonresident Father Involvement with Children and Divorced Women's Likelihood of Remarriage

Although remarriage is a relatively common transition, little is known about how nonresident fathers affect divorced mothers’ entry into remarriage. Using the 1979–2010 rounds of the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979, the authors examined the likelihood of remarriage for divorced mothers (N = 882) by nonresident father contact with children and payment of child support. The findings suggest that maternal remarriage is positively associated with nonresident father contact but not related to receiving child support.

Nonresident Father Involvement with Children and Divorced Women's Likelihood of Remarriage

Although remarriage is a relatively common transition, we know little about how nonresident fathers affect divorced mothers’ entry into remarriage. Using the 1979-2010 rounds of the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979, we examined the likelihood of remarriage for divorced mothers (n=882) by nonresident father contact with children and payment of child support. The findings suggest that maternal remarriage is positively associated with nonresident father contact but not related to receiving child support.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Reducible Diffusions with Time-Varying Transformations with Application to Short-Term Interest Rates

Reducible diffusions (RDs) are nonlinear transformations of analytically solvable Basic Diffusions (BDs). Hence, by construction RDs are analytically tractable and flexible diffusion processes. Existing literature on RDs has mostly focused on time-homogeneous transformations, which to a significant extent fail to explore the full potential of RDs from both theoretical and practical points of view. In this paper, we propose flexible and economically justifiable time variations to the transformations of RDs. Concentrating on the Constant Elasticity Variance (CEV) RDs, we consider nonlinear dynamics for our time-varying transformations with both deterministic and stochastic designs. Such time variations can greatly enhance the flexibility of RDs while maintaining sufficient tractability of the resulting models. In the meantime, our modeling approach enjoys the benefits of classical inferential techniques such as the Maximum Likelihood (ML). Our application to the UK and the US short-term interest rates suggests that from an empirical point of view time-varying transformations are highly relevant and statistically significant. We expect that the proposed models can describe more truthfully the dynamic time-varying behavior of economic and financial variables and potentially improve out-of-sample forecasts significantly.

Min-BDeu and Max-BDeu Scores for Learning Bayesian Networks

This work presents two new score functions based on the Bayesian Dirichlet equivalent uniform (BDeu) score for learning Bayesian network structures. They consider the sensitivity of BDeu to varying parameters of the Dirichlet prior. The scores take on the most adversary and the most beneficial priors among those within a contamination set around the symmetric one. We build these scores in such way that they are decomposable and can be computed efficiently. Because of that, they can be integrated into any state-of-the-art structure learning method that explores the space of directed acyclic graphs and allows decomposable scores. Empirical results suggest that our scores outperform the standard BDeu score in terms of the likelihood of unseen data and in terms of edge discovery with respect to the true network, at least when the training sample size is small. We discuss the relation between these new scores and the accuracy of inferred models. Moreover, our new criteria can be used to identify the amount of data after which learning is saturated, that is, additional data are of little help to improve the resulting model.

Belief Updating and Learning in Semi-Qualitative Probabilistic Networks

This paper explores semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) that combine numeric and qualitative information. We first show that exact inferences with SQPNs are NPPP-Complete. We then show that existing qualitative relations in SQPNs (plus probabilistic logic and imprecise assessments) can be dealt effectively through multilinear programming. We then discuss learning: we consider a maximum likelihood method that generates point estimates given a SQPN and empirical data, and we describe a Bayesian-minded method that employs the Imprecise Dirichlet Model to generate set-valued estimates.

Vulnerability and robustness of SME supply chains: An empirical study of risk and disturbance management of fresh food processors in a developing market

The aim of this paper is to analyse vulnerability and robustness of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) supply chains and to consider contextual factors that might influence the success of their disturbance management: Risky product and business environment. By using an exploratory case study it is shown how these contextual factors attribute vulnerability sources, contribute to the robustness of a company’s performance and supply chain vulnerability, as well as how a company seeks to manage internal and external vulnerability sources. The exploratory case is based on a fresh food supply chain of a manufacturing SME operating in a developing market.
Case findings suggest that fresh food supply chains of a manufacturing SME in developing markets are prone to disruptions of their logistics and production processes due to ‘riskiness’ of fresh food products, the ‘riskiness’ of developing markets, as well as ‘riskiness’ of SMEs themselves. However, this does not necessarily indicate the vulnerability of an SME and its entire supply chain. Findings indicate that SMEs can be very successful in disturbance management by selective use of redesign strategies that aim to prevent or reduce the impact of disturbances. More precise, it is likely that an SME can achieve robust performance by employing preventive redesign strategies in managing disturbances that result from internal, company related vulnerability sources, while impact reduction strategies are likely to contribute to robust performance of an SME if used to manage disturbances that result from internal, supply chain related vulnerability sources, as well as external vulnerability sources.

Empirical evaluation of multi-device profiling side-channel attacks

Side-channel analysis of cryptographic systems can allow for the recovery of secret information by an adversary even where the underlying algorithms have been shown to be provably secure. This is achieved by exploiting the unintentional leakages inherent in the underlying implementation of the algorithm in software or hardware. Within this field of research, a class of attacks known as profiling attacks, or more specifically as used here template attacks, have been shown to be extremely efficient at extracting secret keys. Template attacks assume a strong adversarial model, in that an attacker has an identical device with which to profile the power consumption of various operations. This can then be used to efficiently attack the target device. Inherent in this assumption is that the power consumption across the devices under test is somewhat similar. This central tenet of the attack is largely unexplored in the literature with the research community generally performing the profiling stage on the same device as being attacked. This is beneficial for evaluation or penetration testing as it is essentially the best case scenario for an attacker where the model built during the profiling stage matches exactly that of the target device, however it is not necessarily a reflection on how the attack will work in reality. In this work, a large scale evaluation of this assumption is performed, comparing the key recovery performance across 20 identical smart-cards when performing a profiling attack.

Environmental Inequalities and Democratic Citizenship: Linking Normative Theory with Empirical Research

The aim of this paper is to link empirical findings concerning environmental inequalities with different normative yard-sticks for assessing whether these inequalities should be deemed unjust, or not. We argue that such an inquiry must necessarily take into account some caveats regarding both empirical research and normative theory. We suggest that empirical results must be contextualised by establishing geographies of risk. As a normative yard-stick we propose a moderately demanding social-egalitarian account of justice and democratic citizenship, which we take to be best suited to identify unjust as well as legitimate instances of socio-environmental inequality.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long -term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of javascript:void(0);a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability.