Common Breast Cancer Susceptibility Alleles and the Risk of Breast Cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers: Implications for Risk Prediction

The known breast cancer susceptibility polymorphisms in FGFR2, TNRC9/TOX3, MAP3K1, LSP1, and 2q35 confer increased risks of breast cancer for BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers. We evaluated the associations of 3 additional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs4973768 in SLC4A7/NEK10, rs6504950 in STXBP4/COX11, and rs10941679 at 5p12, and reanalyzed the previous associations using additional carriers in a sample of 12,525 BRCA1 and 7,409 BRCA2 carriers. Additionally, we investigated potential interactions between SNPs and assessed the implications for risk prediction. The minor alleles of rs4973768 and rs10941679 were associated with increased breast cancer risk for BRCA2 carriers (per-allele HR - 1.10, 95% CI: 1.03-1.18, P - 0.006 and HR - 1.09, 95% CI: 1.01-1.19, P = 0.03, respectively). Neither SNP was associated with breast cancer risk for BRCA1 carriers, and rs6504950 was not associated with breast cancer for either BRCA1 or BRCA2 carriers. Of the 9 polymorphisms investigated, 7 were associated with breast cancer for BRCA2 carriers (FGFR2, TOX3, MAP3K1, LSP1, 2q35, SLC4A7, 5p12, P 7 = 10 x (11) - 0.03), but only TOX3 and 2q35 were associated with the risk for BRCA1 carriers (P = 0.0049, 0.03, respectively). All risk-associated polymorphisms appear to interact multiplicatively on breast cancer risk for mutation carriers. Based on the joint genotype distribution of the 7 risk-associated SNPs in BRCA2 mutation carriers, the 5% of BRCA2 carriers at highest risk (i.e., between 95th and 100th percentiles) were predicted to have a probability between 80% and 96% of developing breast cancer by age 80, compared with 42%

Anthropology, Socialist Prediction and William Morris’s Commonweal

In the late nineteenth century, a number of writers turned to anthropology to predict a socialist future. They included prominent revolutionary socialists: Friedrich Engels, William Morris and members of the Socialist League. Contextualising the appropriation of the anthropologist Lewis Henry Morgan by such readers, this article also pays particular attention to socialist popularisations of anthropology, particularly those by Morris and his fellow writers in his penny weekly, the Commonweal. Focusing on Morris’s articles on ancient society helps to illuminate his own understanding of history, art and socialism. It also sheds new light on his predictive fiction News from Nowhere, which was originally read alongside Commonweal non-fiction. Both, I will argue, encouraged readers to see the future in the struggles of the ancient past.

Validation study for prediction of iced aerofoil aerodynamics

Ice accretions can significantly change the aerodynamic performance of wings and rotor blades. Significant performance degradation can occur when ice accreations cause regions of separated flow, to predict this change implies, at a minimum, the solution of the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. This paper presents validation for two generic cases involving the flow over aerofoil sections with added synthetic ice shapes. Results were obtained for two aerofoils, namely the NACA 23012 and a generic multi-element configuration. These results are compared with force and pressure coefficient measurements obtained in the NASA LTPT wind-tunnel for the NACA 23012, and force, PIV and boundary-layer measurements obtained at DNW for the multi-clement case. The level of agreement is assessed in the context of industrial requirements.

Nonlinear time series prediction based on a power-law noise model

In this paper we investigate the influence of a power-law noise model, also called noise, on the performance of a feed-forward neural network used to predict time series. We introduce an optimization procedure that optimizes the parameters the neural networks by maximizing the likelihood function based on the power-law model. We show that our optimization procedure minimizes the mean squared leading to an optimal prediction. Further, we present numerical results applying method to time series from the logistic map and the annual number of sunspots demonstrate that a power-law noise model gives better results than a Gaussian model.

A new model based approach for the prediction and optimisation of thermal homogeneity in single screw extrusion

In polymer extrusion, delivery of a melt which is homogenous in composition and temperature is important for good product quality. However, the process is inherently prone to temperature fluctuations which are difficult to monitor and control via single point based conventional thermo- couples. In this work, the die melt temperature profile was monitored by a thermocouple mesh and the data obtained was used to generate a model to predict the die melt temperature profile. A novel nonlinear model was then proposed which was demonstrated to be in good agreement with training and unseen data. Furthermore, the proposed model was used to select optimum process settings to achieve the desired average melt temperature across the die while improving the temperature homogeneity. The simulation results indicate a reduction in melt temperature variations of up to 60%.

In Silico Prediction of the Mechanobiological Response of Arterial Tissue: Application to Angioplasty and Stenting

One way to restore physiological blood flow to occluded arteries involves the deformation of plaque using an intravascular balloon and preventing elastic recoil using a stent. Angioplasty and stent implantation cause unphysiological loading of the arterial tissue, which may lead to tissue in-growth and reblockage; termed “restenosis.” In this paper, a computational methodology for predicting the time-course of restenosis is presented. Stress-induced damage, computed using a remaining life approach, stimulates inflammation (production of matrix degrading factors and growth stimuli). This, in turn, induces a change in smooth muscle cell phenotype from contractile (as exists in the quiescent tissue) to synthetic (as exists in the growing tissue). In this paper, smooth muscle cell activity (migration, proliferation, and differentiation) is simulated in a lattice using a stochastic approach to model individual cell activity. The inflammation equations are examined under simplified loading cases. The mechanobiological parameters of the model were estimated by calibrating the model response to the results of a balloon angioplasty study in humans. The simulation method was then used to simulate restenosis in a two dimensional model of a stented artery. Cell activity predictions were similar to those observed during neointimal hyperplasia, culminating in the growth of restenosis. Similar to experiment, the amount of neointima produced increased with the degree of expansion of the stent, and this relationship was found to be highly dependant on the prescribed inflammatory response. It was found that the duration of inflammation affected the amount of restenosis produced, and that this effect was most pronounced with large stent expansions. In conclusion, the paper shows that the arterial tissue response to mechanical stimulation can be predicted using a stochastic cell modeling approach, and that the simulation captures features of restenosis development observed with real stents. The modeling approach is proposed for application in three dimensional models of cardiovascular stenting procedures.