Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.

Rural Support Networks in the UK and Canada: The Influence of the Patrilineal Culture of Family Farming

Rural support organisations have emerged since agricultural restructuring of the 1980s. The paper draws on research from the UK and Canada to suggest that the support in both countries is derived from a patrilineal culture that still dominates family farming. The paper begins by outlining a conceptual basis for arguing that such a culture can be understood as comprising of male and female relational gender identities capable of explaining farm relationships, farm survival and adjustment strategies and community engagement. These components, it is argued, are facets of the patrilineal farming culture which must be understood if its impacts on all its members are to be appropriately comprehended and supported.

The paper has two key aims, therefore. Firstly it suggests that a more nuanced understanding of farming „culture? which is persistently patrilineal in nature is now required which is capable of addressing the realities of farming individuals?
lives as they perceive them. The conceptualisation of such a culture is informed
by drawing on insights from gender theory, agricultural geography and rural studies. This conceptual discussion provides the context for the paper?s second aim which is to demonstrate how rural support in both the UK and Canada is derived „from? and is influenced by such a patrilineal culture . Findings are
presented identifying five key themes from this conceptualization which influence the support of such organisations. Thus, it is suggested, that the nature of rural support can be better understood and the appropriateness of the support interrogated when such conceptualization is taken on board.

Impacts of Electric Vehicle charging under electricity market operations

The Irish government set a target in 2008 that 10% of all vehicles in the transport fleet be powered by electricity by 2020. Similar electric vehicle targets have been introduced in other countries. In this study the effects of 213,561 electric vehicles on the operation of the single wholesale electricity market for the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is investigated. A model of Ireland’s electricity market in 2020 is developed using the power systems market model called PLEXOS for power systems. The amount of CO2 emissions associated with charging the EVs and the impacts with respect to Ireland’s target for renewable energy in transport is also quantified. A single generation portfolio and two different charging scenarios, arising from a peak and off-peak charging profile are considered. Results from the study confirm that offpeak charging is more beneficial than peak charging and that charging EVs will contribute 1.45% energy supply to the 10% renewable energy in transport target. The net CO2 reductions are 147 and 210 kt CO2 respectively.

Isolation and characterization of a novel simazine-degrading bacterium from agricultural soil of central Chile, Pseudomonas sp MHP41

s-Triazine herbicides are used extensively in South America in agriculture and forestry. In this study, a bacterium designated as strain MHP41, capable of degrading simazine and atrazine, was isolated from agricultural soil in the Quillota valley, central Chile. Strain MHP41 is able to grow in minimal medium, using simazine as the sole nitrogen source. In this medium, the bacterium exhibited a growth rate of mu = 0.10 h(-1), yielding a high biomass of 4.2 x 10(8) CFU mL(-1). Resting cells of strain MHP41 degrade more than 80% of simazine within 60 min. The atzA, atzB, atzC, atzD, atzE and atzF genes encoding the enzymes of the simazine upper and lower pathways were detected in strain MHP41. The motile Gram-negative bacterium was identified as a Pseudomonas sp., based on the Biolog microplate system and comparative sequence analyses of the 16S rRNA gene. Amplified ribosomal DNA restriction analysis allowed the differentiation of strain MHP41 from Pseudomonas sp. ADP. The comparative 16S rRNA gene sequence analyses suggested that strain MHP41 is closely related to Pseudomonas nitroreducens and Pseudomonas multiresinovorans. This is the first s-triazine-degrading bacterium isolated in South America. Strain MHP41 is a potential biocatalyst for the remediation of s-triazine-contaminated environments.

Collective Participation Impacts Social Identity::A Longitudinal Study with Control Data

How does participation in collective activity affect our social identifications and behavior? We investigate this question in a longitudinal questionnaire study conducted at one of the world’s largest collective events – the Magh Mela (a month-long Hindu religious festival in north India). Data gathered from pilgrims and comparable others who did not attend the event show that one month after this mass gathering was over, those who had participated (but not controls) exhibited a heightened social identification as Hindu and increased levels of religious activity (e.g., performing prayer rituals). Additional data gathered from the pilgrim respondents during the festival show that the pilgrims’ perceptions of sharing a common identity with other pilgrims, and of being able to enact their social identity in this event, predicted these outcomes.

Landfill cap models under simulated climate change precipitation::Impacts of cracks and root growth

Desiccation crack formation is a key process that needs to be understood in assessment of landfill cap performance under anticipated future climate change scenarios. The objectives of this study were to examine: (a) desiccation cracks and impacts that roots may have on their formation and resealing, and (b) their impacts on hydraulic conductivity under anticipated climate change precipitation scenarios. Visual observations, image analysis of thin sections and hydraulic conductivity tests were carried out on cores collected from two large-scale laboratory trial landfill cap models (∼80 × 80 × 90 cm) during a year of four simulated seasonal precipitation events. Extensive root growth in the topsoil increased percolation of water into the subsurface, and after droughts, roots grew deep into low-permeability layers through major cracks which impeded their resealing. At the end of 1 year, larger cracks had lost resealing ability and one single, large, vertical crack made the climate change precipitation model cap inefficient. Even though the normal precipitation model had developed desiccation cracks, its integrity was preserved better than the climate change precipitation model.

Response of farmland biodiversity to the introduction of bioenergy crops: effects of local factors and surrounding landscape context

The recent growth in bioenergy crop cultivation, stimulated by the need to implement measures to reduce net CO emissions, is driving major land-use changes with consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Although the type of bioenergy crop and its associated management is likely to affect biodiversity at the local (field) scale, landscape context and its interaction with crop type may also influence biodiversity on farms. In this study, we assessed the impact of replacing conventional agricultural crops with two model bioenergy crops (either oilseed rape Brassica napus or Miscanthus × giganteus) on vascular plant, bumblebee, solitary bee, hoverfly and carabid beetle richness, diversity and abundance in 50 sites in Ireland. We assessed whether within-field biodiversity was also related to surrounding landscape structure. We found that local- and landscape-scale variables correlated with biodiversity in these agricultural landscapes. Overall, the differences between the bioenergy crops and the conventional crops on farmland biodiversity were mostly positive (e.g. higher vascular plant richness in Miscanthus planted on former conventional tillage, higher solitary bee abundance and richness in Miscanthus and oilseed rape compared with conventional crops) or neutral (e.g. no differences between crop types for hoverflies and bumblebees). We showed that these crop type effects were independent of (i.e. no interactions with) the surrounding landscape composition and configuration. However, surrounding landscape context did relate to biodiversity in these farms, negatively for carabid beetles and positively for hoverflies. Although we conclude that the bioenergy crops compared favourably with conventional crops in terms of biodiversity of the taxa studied at the field scale, the effects of large-scale planting in these landscapes could result in very different impacts. Maintaining ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services will require a greater understanding of impacts at the landscape scale to ensure the sustainable development of climate change mitigation measures.

Taxonomic and functional diversity of farmland bird communities across Europe:Effects of biogeography and agricultural intensification

In eight European study sites (in Spain, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Estonia and Sweden), abundance of breeding farmland bird territories was obtained from 500 × 500 m survey plots (30 per area, N = 240) using the mapping method. Two analyses were performed: (I) a Canonical Correspondence Analysis of species abundance in relation to geographical location and variables measuring agricultural intensification at field and farm level to identify significant intensification variables and to estimate the fractions of total variance in bird abundance explained by geography and agricultural intensification; (II) several taxonomic and functional community indices were built and analysed using GLM in relation to the intensification variables found significant in the CCA. The geographical location of study sites alone explains nearly one fifth (19. 5%) of total variation in species abundance. The fraction of variance explained by agricultural intensification alone is much smaller (4. 3%), although significant. The intersection explains nearly two fifths (37. 8%) of variance in species abundance. Community indices are negatively affected by correlates of intensification like farm size and yield, whereas correlates of habitat availability and quality have positive effects on taxonomic and functional diversity of assemblages. Most of the purely geographical variation in farmland bird assemblage composition is associated to Mediterranean steppe species, reflecting the bio-geographical singularity of that assemblage and reinforcing the need to preserve this community. Taxonomic and functional diversity of farmland bird communities are negatively affected by agricultural intensification and positively affected by increasing farmland habitat availability and quality. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Numerical assessment of potential impacts of hydraulically fractured Bowland Shale on overlying aquifers

Natural gas extracted from hydraulically fractured shale formations potentially has a big impact on the global energy landscape. However, there are concerns of potential environmental impacts of hydraulic fracturing of the shale formations, particularly those related to water quality. To evaluate the potential impact of hydraulically fractured shale on overlying aquifers, we conduct realizations of numerical modeling simulations to assess fluid flow and chloride transport from a synthetic Bowland Shale over a period of 11,000 years. The synthetic fractured shale was represented by a three-dimensional discrete fracture model that was developed by using the data from a Bowland Shale gas exploration in Lancashire, UK. Chloride mass exchange between fractures and the rock matrix was fully accounted for in the model. The assessment was carried out to investigate fluid and chloride mass fluxes before, during, and after hydraulic fracturing of the Bowland Shale. Impacts of the upward fracture height and aperture, as well as hydraulic conductivity of the multilayered bedrock system, are also included this assessment. This modeling revealed that the hydraulically fractured Bowland Shale is unlikely to pose a risk to its overlying groundwater quality when the induced fracture aperture is ≤200 µm. With the fracture aperture ≥1000 µm, the upward chloride flux becomes very sensitive to the upward fracture height growth and hydraulic conductivity of the multilayered bedrock system. In the extremely unlikely event of the upward fracture growth directly connecting the shale formation to the overlying Sherwood Sandstone aquifer with the fracture aperture ≥1000 µm, the upward chloride mass flux could potentially pose risks to the overlying aquifer in 100 years. The model study also revealed that the upward mass flux is significantly intercepted by the horizontal mass flux within a high permeable layer between the Bowland Shale and its overlying aquifers, reducing further upward flux toward the overlying aquifers.

Geophysical and hydrogeological characterisation of the impacts of on-site wastewater treatment discharge to groundwater in a poorly productive bedrock acquifer

Contaminants discharging from on-site wastewater treatment systems (OSWTSs) can impact groundwater quality, threatening human health and surface water ecosystems. Risk of negative impacts becomes elevated in areas of extreme vulnerability with high water tables, where thin unsaturated intervals limit vadose zone attenuation. A combined geophysical/hydrogeological investigation into the effects of an OSWTS, located over a poorly productive aquifer (PPA) with thin subsoil cover, aimed to characterise effluent impacts on groundwater. Groundwater, sampled from piezometers down-gradient of the OSWTS percolation area displayed spatially erratic, yet temporally consistent, contaminant distributions. Electrical resistivity tomography identified an area of gross groundwater contamination close to the percolation area and, when combined with seismic refraction and water quality data, indicated that infiltrating effluent reaching the water table discharged to a deeper more permeable zone of weathered shale resting on more competent bedrock. Subsurface structure, defined by geophysics, indicated that elevated chemical and microbiological contaminant levels encountered in groundwater samples collected from piezometers, down-gradient of sampling points with lower contaminant levels, corresponded to those locations where piezometers were screened close to the weathered shale/competent rock interface; those immediately up-gradient were too shallow to intercept this interval, and thus the more impacted zone of the contaminant plume. Intermittent occurrence of faecal indicator bacteria more than 100 m down gradient of the percolation area suggested relatively short travel times. Study findings highlight the utility of geophysics as part of multidisciplinary investigations for OSWTS contaminant plume characterisation, while also demonstrating the capacity of effluent discharging to PPAs to impact groundwater quality at distance. Comparable geophysical responses observed in similar settings across Ireland suggest the phenomena observed in this study are more widespread than previously suspected.

Predicting the ecological impacts of a new freshwater invader:Functional responses and prey selectivity of the 'killer shrimp', Dikerogammarus villosus, compared to the native Gammarus pulex

The ability to predict the likely ecological impacts of invasive species in fresh waters is a pressing research requirement. Whilst comparisons of species traits and considerations of invasion history have some efficacy in this respect, we require robust methods that can compare the effects of native and invasive species. Here, we utilise comparative functional responses and prey selectivity experiments to understand and predict the ecological impact of an invader as compared to a native. We compared the predatory functional responses of an emerging invasive species in Europe, the 'killer shrimp', Dikerogammarus villosus, and an analogous native species, Gammarus pulex, towards three representative prey species: Asellus aquaticus, Daphnia magna and Chironomus sp. Furthermore, as ecological impact may be greater for invasive species with more indiscriminate feeding habits, we compared the selectivity for the three prey types between the invasive and native species. In both the presence and absence of experimental habitats, large D. villosus, and those matched for body size with G. pulex, generally showed higher (Type II) functional responses than G. pulex, with the invasive species exhibiting higher maximum feeding rates. Further, D. villosus exhibited significantly more indiscriminate prey selection compared with G. pulex, a trait that became more evident as the invader increased in size. Differences in functional responses and prey selectivity were prey species specific, with higher to lower predicted impacts in the order A. aquaticus, D. magna and Chironomus sp. This is in accord with the impact of this invasive species on macroinvertebrates in the field. We thus provide understanding of the known ecological impact of D. villosus and discuss the utility of the phenomenological use of comparative functional responses and resource use as a tool through which the potential ecological impacts of invasive species may be identified. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.