Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC_Ph) for patient waiting time with a logistic regression component to predict patient admission to hospital

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models are a family of models which represent skewed survival data conditioned on specific inter-related discrete variables. The survival data is modeled using a Coxian phase-type distribution which is associated with the inter-related variables using a range of possible data mining approaches such as Bayesian networks (BNs), the Naïve Bayes Classification method and classification regression trees. This paper utilizes the Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC-Ph) to explore the modeling of patient waiting times in an Accident and Emergency Department of a UK hospital. The resulting DC-Ph model takes on the form of the Coxian phase-type distribution conditioned on the outcome of a logistic regression model.

Ownership type and team climate in elderly care facilities: the moderating effect of stress factors

Aims. This paper is a report of a study examining the association between ownership type and perceived team climate among older people care staff. In addition, we examined whether work stress factors (time pressure, resident-related stress, role conflicts and role ambiguity) mediated or moderated the above mentioned association. Background. There has been a trend towards contracting out in older people care facilities in Finland and the number of private for-profit firms has increased. Studies suggest that there may be differences in employee well-being and quality of care according to the ownership type of older people care. Methods. Cross-sectional survey data was collected during the autumn of 2007 from 1084 Finnish female older people care staff aged 1869 years were used. Team Climate Inventory was used to measure team climate. Ownership type was divided into four categories: for-profit sheltered homes, not-for-profit sheltered homes, public sheltered homes and not-for-profit nursing homes. Analyses of covariance were used to examine the associations. Results. Team climate dimensions participative safety, vision and support for innovation were higher in not-for-profit organizations (both sheltered homes and nursing homes) compared to for-profit sheltered homes and public sheltered homes. Stress factors did not account for these associations but acted as moderators in a way that in terms of task orientation and participative safety employees working in for-profit organizations seemed to be slightly more sensitive to work-related stress than others. Conclusion. Our results suggest that for-profit organizations and public organizations may have difficulties in maintaining their team climate. In consequence, these organizations should focus more effort on improving their team climate.

Effect of coinfection with genogroup 1 porcine torque teno virus on porcine circovirus type 2-associated postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome in gnotobiotic pigs

Objective—To determine whether genogroup 1 porcine torque teno virus (g1-TTV) can potentiate clinical disease associated with porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2).

Sample population—33 gnotobiotic baby pigs.

Procedures—Pigs were allocated into 7 groups: group A, 5 uninoculated control pigs from 3 litters; group B, 4 pigs oronasally inoculated with PCV2 alone; group C, 4 pigs inoculated IP with first-passage g1-TTV alone; group D, 4 pigs inoculated IP with fourth-passage g1-TTV alone; group E, 6 pigs inoculated IP with first-passage g1-TTV and then oronasally inoculated with PCV2 7 days later; group F, 6 pigs inoculated IP with fourth-passage g1-TTV and then inoculated oronasally with PCV2 7 days later; and group G, 4 pigs inoculated oro-nasally with PCV2 and then inoculated IP with fourth-passage g1-TTV 7 days later.

Results—6 of 12 pigs inoculated with g1-TTV prior to PCV2 developed acute onset of postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS). None of the pigs inoculated with g1-TTV alone or PCV2 alone or that were challenge exposed to g1-TTV after establishment of infection with PCV2 developed clinical illness. Uninoculated control pigs remained healthy.

Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—These data implicated g1-TTV as another viral infection that facilitates PCV2-induced PMWS. This raises the possibility that torque teno viruses in swine may contribute to disease expression currently associated with only a single infectious agent.

Cell type-dependent uptake, localization, and cytotoxicity of 1.9 nm gold nanoparticles

Background: This follow-up study aims to determine the physical parameters which govern the differential radiosensitization capacity of two tumor cell lines and one immortalized normal cell line to 1.9 nm gold nanoparticles. In addition to comparing the uptake potential, localization, and cytotoxicity of 1.9 nm gold nanoparticles, the current study also draws on comparisons between nanoparticle size and total nanoparticle uptake based on previously published data.

Methods: We quantified gold nanoparticle uptake using atomic emission spectroscopy and imaged intracellular localization by transmission electron microscopy. Cell growth delay and clonogenic assays were used to determine cytotoxicity and radiosensitization potential, respectively. Mechanistic data were obtained by Western blot, flow cytometry, and assays for reactive oxygen species.

Results: Gold nanoparticle uptake was preferentially observed in tumor cells, resulting in an increased expression of cleaved caspase proteins and an accumulation of cells in sub G1 phase. Despite this, gold nanoparticle cytotoxicity remained low, with immortalized normal cells exhibiting an LD50 concentration approximately 14 times higher than tumor cells. The surviving fraction for gold nanoparticle-treated cells at 3 Gy compared with that of untreated control cells indicated a strong dependence on cell type in respect to radiosensitization potential.

Conclusion: Gold nanoparticles were most avidly endocytosed and localized within cytoplasmic vesicles during the first 6 hours of exposure. The lack of significant cytotoxicity in the absence of radiation, and the generation of gold nanoparticle-induced reactive oxygen species provide a potential mechanism for previously reported radiosensitization at megavoltage energies.

BcsK(C) Is an Essential Protein for the Type VI Secretion System Activity in Burkholderia cenocepacia That Forms an Outer Membrane Complex with BcsL(B)

The type VI secretion system (T6SS) contributes to the virulence of Burkholderia cenocepacia, an opportunistic pathogen causing serious chronic infections in patients with cystic fibrosis. BcsK(C) is a highly conserved protein among the T6SSs in Gram-negative bacteria. Here, we show that BcsK(C) is required for Hcp secretion and cytoskeletal redistribution in macrophages upon bacterial infection. These two phenotypes are associated with a functional T6SS in B. cenocepacia. Experiments employing a bacterial two-hybrid system and pulldown assays demonstrated that BcsK(C) interacts with BcsL(B), another conserved T6SS component. Internal deletions within BcsK(C) revealed that its N-terminal domain is necessary and sufficient for interaction with BcsL(B). Fractionation experiments showed that BcsK(C) can be in the cytosol or tightly associated with the outer membrane and that BcsK(C) and BcsL(B) form a high molecular weight complex anchored to the outer membrane that requires BcsF(H) (a ClpV homolog) to be assembled. Together, our data show that BcsK(C)/BcsL(B) interaction is essential for the T6SS activity in B. cenocepacia.

A novel sensor kinase-response regulator hybrid controls biofilm formation and type VI secretion system activity in Burkholderia cenocepacia

Burkholderia cenocepacia is an important opportunistic pathogen causing serious chronic infections in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). Adaptation of B. cenocepacia to the CF airways may play an important role in the persistence of the infection. We have identified a sensor kinase-response regulator (BCAM0379) named AtsR in B. cenocepacia K56-2 that shares 19% amino acid identity with RetS from Pseudomonas aeruginosa. atsR inactivation led to increased biofilm production and a hyperadherent phenotype in both abiotic surfaces and lung epithelial cells. Also, the atsR mutant overexpressed and hypersecreted an Hcp-like protein known to be specifically secreted by the type VI secretion system (T6SS) in other gram-negative bacteria. Amoeba plaque assays demonstrated that the atsR mutant was more resistant to Dictyostelium predation than the wild-type strain and that this phenomenon was T6SS dependent. Macrophage infection assays also demonstrated that the atsR mutant induces the formation of actin-mediated protrusions from macrophages that require a functional Hcp-like protein, suggesting that the T6SS is involved in actin rearrangements. Three B. cenocepacia transposon mutants that were found in a previous study to be impaired for survival in chronic lung infection model were mapped to the T6SS gene cluster, indicating that the T6SS is required for infection in vivo. Together, our data show that AtsR is involved in the regulation of genes required for virulence in B. cenocepacia K56-2, including genes encoding a T6SS.

Cloning of cDNAs and molecular characterisation of C-type lectin-like proteins from snake venoms

C-type lectin-like proteins (CTLPs) isolated from snake venoms are the largest and most complex non-mammalian vertebrate C-type lectin-like domain family. In the present study, we simultaneously amplified four cDNAs encoding different types of CTLP subunits from the venoms of two different species of snakes by RT-PCR with a single sense primer and a nested universal primer - two CTLP subunit-encoding cDNAs were cloned from Deinagkistrodon acutus venom and two from Agkistrodon halys Pallas venom. All four cloned CTLP subunits exhibited typical motifs in their corresponding domain regions but with relatively-low sequence similarities to each other. Compared with previously-published CTLPs, the four cloned CTLPs subunits showed slight variations in the calcium-binding sites and the disulphide bonding patterns. To our knowledge, these data constitute the first example of co-expression of CTLP platelet glycoprotein Ib-binding subunits and coagulation factors in Agkistrodon halys Pallas venom.

Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008

Objectives: To investigate seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008.
Methods: 23 population-based registers recorded date of diagnosis in new cases of clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes in children aged under 15 years. Completeness of ascertainment was assessed through capture-recapture methodology and was high in most centres. A general test for seasonal variation (11df) and Edward's test for sinusoidal (sine wave) variation (2df) were employed. Time series methods were also used to investigate if meteorological data were predictive of monthly counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.
Results: Significant seasonal variation was apparent in all but two small centres, with an excess of cases apparent in the winter quarter. Significant sinusoidal pattern was also evident in all but two small centres with peaks in December (14 centres), January (5 centres) or February (2 centres). Relative amplitude varied from ±11% to ±39% (median ±18%). There was no relationship across the centres between relative amplitude and incidence level. However there was evidence of significant deviation from the sinusoidal pattern in the majority of centres. Pooling results over centres, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, but with significantly less variation in those aged under 5 years. Boys showed marginally greater seasonal variation than girls. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four sub-periods of the 20 year period. In most centres monthly counts of cases were not associated with deviations from normal monthly average temperature or sunshine hours; short term meteorological variations do not explain numbers of cases diagnosed.
Conclusions: Seasonality with a winter excess is apparent in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5s show less marked variation. The seasonal pattern changed little in the 20 year period.

EURODIAB childhood type 1 diabetes incidence registers - results from the first 20 years. Oral presentation at the 47th EASD Annual Meeting, Lisbon, Portugal.

Background and aims: In 1989 a number of registers in Europe began recording new cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in children aged under 15 years using a common protocol. Trends in incidence rate during the 20 year period 1989-2008 are described.
Materials and methods: All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. When possible, completeness of registration in each register is assessed using capture-recapture methodology by identifying primary and secondary sources of ascertainment. The completeness estimate is obtained by identifying the numbers of cases identified by the primary source only, by the secondary source only and by both the primary and the secondary sources.
Results: Other registers have joined the Group since 1989, and 21 registers in 15 countries continue to submit registration data. In the first five years (1989-93) incidence rates varied from 3.2 per 100,000 in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to 25.8 per 100,000 in the Stockholm area of Sweden. In the last five years (2004-2008) these same two registers again had the lowest and highest incidence, but rates had increased to 5.8 per 100,000 and 36.6 per 100,000, respectively. During the 20 year period all but two of the 21 registers showed statistically significant rates of increase (median rate of increase 4% per annum), and similar figures were obtained when this median rate of increase was estimated for the first half of the period (1989-98) and for the second half (1999-2008) . However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half of the period for eight of the 17 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; four registers showing significantly higher rates of increase in the first half and four significantly higher rates in the second half.
Conclusion: The childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rate continues to rise across Europe by approximately 4% per annum, but the increase within a register is not necessarily uniform with periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence occurring in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions are warranted.

EURODIAB childhood type 1 diabetes incidence registers - results from the first 20 years

Background and aims: In 1989 a number of registers in Europe began recording new cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in children aged under 15 years using a common protocol. Trends in incidence rate during the 20 year period 1989-2008 are described.
Materials and methods: All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. When possible, completeness of registration in each register is assessed using capture-recapture methodology by identifying primary and secondary sources of ascertainment. The completeness estimate is obtained by identifying the numbers of cases identified by the primary source only, by the secondary source only and by both the primary and the secondary sources.
Results: Other registers have joined the Group since 1989, and 21 registers in 15 countries continue to submit registration data. In the first five years (1989-93) incidence rates varied from 3.2 per 100,000 in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to 25.8 per 100,000 in the Stockholm area of Sweden. In the last five years (2004-2008) these same two registers again had the lowest and highest incidence, but rates had increased to 5.8 per 100,000 and 36.6 per 100,000, respectively. During the 20 year period all but two of the 21 registers showed statistically significant rates of increase (median rate of increase 4% per annum), and similar figures were obtained when this median rate of increase was estimated for the first half of the period (1989-98) and for the second half (1999-2008) . However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half of the period for eight of the 17 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; four registers showing significantly higher rates of increase in the first half and four significantly higher rates in the second half.
Conclusion: The childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rate continues to rise across Europe by approximately 4% per annum, but the increase within a register is not necessarily uniform with periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence occurring in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions are warranted.

Regression analysis of spatial data

Many of the most interesting questions ecologists ask lead to analyses of spatial data. Yet, perhaps confused by the large number of statistical models and fitting methods available, many ecologists seem to believe this is best left to specialists. Here, we describe the issues that need consideration when analysing spatial data and illustrate these using simulation studies. Our comparative analysis involves using methods including generalized least squares, spatial filters, wavelet revised models, conditional autoregressive models and generalized additive mixed models to estimate regression coefficients from synthetic but realistic data sets, including some which violate standard regression assumptions. We assess the performance of each method using two measures and using statistical error rates for model selection. Methods that performed well included generalized least squares family of models and a Bayesian implementation of the conditional auto-regressive model. Ordinary least squares also performed adequately in the absence of model selection, but had poorly controlled Type I error rates and so did not show the improvements in performance under model selection when using the above methods. Removing large-scale spatial trends in the response led to poor performance. These are empirical results; hence extrapolation of these findings to other situations should be performed cautiously. Nevertheless, our simulation-based approach provides much stronger evidence for comparative analysis than assessments based on single or small numbers of data sets, and should be considered a necessary foundation for statements of this type in future.

New susceptibility Loci associated with kidney disease in type 1 diabetes

Diabetic kidney disease, or diabetic nephropathy (DN), is a major complication of diabetes and the leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) that requires dialysis treatment or kidney transplantation. In addition to the decrease in the quality of life, DN accounts for a large proportion of the excess mortality associated with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Whereas the degree of glycemia plays a pivotal role in DN, a subset of individuals with poorly controlled T1D do not develop DN. Furthermore, strong familial aggregation supports genetic susceptibility to DN. However, the genes and the molecular mechanisms behind the disease remain poorly understood, and current therapeutic strategies rarely result in reversal of DN. In the GEnetics of Nephropathy: an International Effort (GENIE) consortium, we have undertaken a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of T1D DN comprising ~2.4 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) imputed in 6,691 individuals. After additional genotyping of 41 top ranked SNPs representing 24 independent signals in 5,873 individuals, combined meta-analysis revealed association of two SNPs with ESRD: rs7583877 in the AFF3 gene (P?=?1.2×10(-8)) and an intergenic SNP on chromosome 15q26 between the genes RGMA and MCTP2, rs12437854 (P?=?2.0×10(-9)). Functional data suggest that AFF3 influences renal tubule fibrosis via the transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-ß1) pathway. The strongest association with DN as a primary phenotype was seen for an intronic SNP in the ERBB4 gene (rs7588550, P?=?2.1×10(-7)), a gene with type 2 diabetes DN differential expression and in the same intron as a variant with cis-eQTL expression of ERBB4. All these detected associations represent new signals in the pathogenesis of DN.

On the γ-ray emission of Type Ia supernovae

A multidimension, time-dependent Monte Carlo code is used to compute sample ?-ray spectra to explore whether unambiguous constraints could be obtained from ?-ray observations of Type Ia supernovae. Both spherical and aspherical geometries are considered and it is shown that moderate departures from sphericity can produce viewing-angle effects that are at least as significant as those caused by the variation of key parameters in 1D models. Thus, ?-ray data could, in principle, carry some geometrical information, and caution should be applied when discussing the value of ?-ray data based only on 1D explosion models. In light of the limited sensitivity of current ?-ray observatories, the computed theoretical spectra are studied to revisit the issue of whether useful constraints could be obtained for moderately nearby objects. The most useful ?-ray measurements are likely to be of the light curve and time-dependent hardness ratios, but sensitivity higher than currently available, particularly at relatively hard energies (~2-3 MeV), is desirable. © 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2008 RAS.

Interpreting the near-infrared spectra of the 'golden standard' Type Ia supernova 2005cf

We present nine near-infrared (NIR) spectra of supernova (SN) 2005cf at epochs from -10 to +42d with respect to B-band maximum, complementing the existing excellent data sets available for this prototypical Type Ia SN at other wavelengths. The spectra show a time evolution and spectral features characteristic of normal Type Ia SNe, as illustrated by a comparison with SNe 1999ee, 2002bo and 2003du. The broad-band spectral energy distribution (SED) of SN 2005cf is studied in combined ultraviolet (UV), optical and NIR spectra at five epochs between ~8d before and ~10d after maximum light. We also present synthetic spectra of the hydrodynamic explosion model W7, which reproduce the key properties of SN 2005cf not only at UV-optical as previously reported, but also at NIR wavelengths. From the radiative-transfer calculations we infer that fluorescence is the driving mechanism that shapes the SED of SNe Ia. In particular, the NIR part of the spectrum is almost devoid of absorption features, and instead dominated by fluorescent emission of both iron-group material and intermediate-mass elements at pre-maximum epochs, and pure iron-group material after maximum light. A single P-Cygni feature of Mgii at early epochs and a series of relatively unblended Coii lines at late phases allow us to constrain the regions of the ejecta in which the respective elements are abundant. © 2012 The Authors Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society © 2012 RAS.

Three-dimensional delayed-detonation models with nucleosynthesis for type ia supernovae

We present results for a suite of 14 three-dimensional, high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations of delayed-detonation models of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) explosions. This model suite comprises the first set of three-dimensional SN Ia simulations with detailed isotopic yield information. As such, it may serve as a data base for Chandrasekhar-mass delayed-detonation model nucleosynthetic yields and for deriving synthetic observables such as spectra and light curves. We employ aphysically motivated, stochastic model based on turbulent velocity fluctuations and fuel density to calculate in situ the deflagration-to-detonation transition probabilities. To obtain different strengths of the deflagration phase and thereby different degrees of pre-expansion, we have chosen a sequence of initial models with 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, 40, 100, 150, 200, 300 and 1600 (two different realizations) ignition kernels in a hydrostatic white dwarf with a central density of 2.9 × 10 g cm, as well as one high central density (5.5 × 10 g cm) and one low central density (1.0 × 10 g cm) rendition of the 100 ignition kernel configuration. For each simulation, we determined detailed nucleosynthetic yields by postprocessing10 tracer particles with a 384 nuclide reaction network. All delayed-detonation models result in explosions unbinding thewhite dwarf, producing a range of 56Ni masses from 0.32 to 1.11M. As a general trend, the models predict that the stableneutron-rich iron-group isotopes are not found at the lowest velocities, but rather at intermediate velocities (~3000×10 000 km s) in a shell surrounding a Ni-rich core. The models further predict relatively low-velocity oxygen and carbon, with typical minimum velocities around 4000 and 10 000 km s, respectively. © 2012 The Authors. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.