House value as an indicator of cumulative wealth is strongly related to morbidity and mortality risk in older people: a census-based cross-sectional and longitudinal study

Background: There has been relatively little research into health inequalities in older populations. This may be partly explained by the difficulty in identifying appropriate indicators of socio-economic status for older people. Ideally, indicators of socio-economic status to be used in studies of health inequalities in older populations should incorporate some measure of life-time socio-economic standing, and house value may fill this role. This study examined whether an indicator of accumulated wealth based on a combination of housing tenure and house value was a strong predictor of ill-health in older populations.
Methods: A total of 191 848 people aged =65 years and not living in communal establishments were identified from the 2001 Northern Ireland Census and followed for 5 years. Self-reported health and mortality risk by housing tenure/house value groupings were examined while controlling for a range of other demographic and socio-economic characteristics.
Results: Housing tenure/house value was highly correlated with other indicators of socio-economic status. Public-sector renters had worse self-reported health and higher mortality rates than owner occupiers but significant gradients were also found between those living in the highest-and lowest-valued owner-occupier properties. The relationship between housing tenure and value was unchanged by adjustment for indicators of social support and quality of the physical environment. Adjustment for limiting long-term illness and self-reported health at baseline narrowed but did not eliminate the health gains associated with living in more expensive housing.
Conclusions: House value of residence is an accessible and powerful indicator of accumulated wealth that is highly correlated with current health status and predictive of future mortality risk in older populations.

Information gathering and decision making about resource value in animal contests

Contestants are predicted to adjust the cost of a fight in line with the perceived value of the resource and this provides a way of determining whether the resource has been assessed. An assessment of resource value is predicted to alter an animal's motivational state and we note different methods of measuring that state. We provide a categorical framework in which the degree of resource assessment may be evaluated and also note limitations of various approaches. We place studies in six categories: (1) cases of no assessment, (2) cases of internal state such as hunger influencing apparent value, (3) cases of the contestants differing in assessment ability, (4) cases of mutual and equal assessment of value, (5) cases where opponents differ in resource value and (6) cases of particularly complex assessment abilities that involve a comparison of the value of two resources. We examine the extent to which these studies support game theory predictions and suggest future areas of research. (C) 2008 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dust and the Type II-Plateau Supernova 2004et

We present mid-infrared (MIR) observations of the Type II-plateau supernova (SN) 2004et, obtained with the Spitzer Space Telescope between 64 and 1406 days past explosion. Late-time optical spectra are also presented. For the period 300-795 days past explosion, we argue that the spectral energy distribution (SED) of SN 2004et comprises (1) a hot component due to emission from optically thick gas, as well as free-bound radiation; (2) a warm component due to newly formed, radioactively heated dust in the ejecta; and (3) a cold component due to an IR echo from the interstellar-medium dust of the host galaxy, NGC 6946. There may also have been a small contribution to the IR SED due to free-free emission from ionized gas in the ejecta. We reveal the first-ever spectroscopic evidence for silicate dust formed in the ejecta of a supernova. This is supported by our detection of a large, but progressively declining, mass of SiO. However, we conclude that the mass of directly detected ejecta dust grew to no more than a few times 10(-4) M-circle dot. We also provide evidence that the ejecta dust formed in comoving clumps of fixed size. We argue that, after about two years past explosion, the appearance of wide, box-shaped optical line profiles was due to the impact of the ejecta on the progenitor circumstellar medium and that the subsequent formation of a cool, dense shell was responsible for a later rise in the MIR flux. This study demonstrates the rich, multifaceted ways in which a typical core-collapse supernova and its progenitor can produce and/or interact with dust grains. The work presented here adds to the growing number of studies that do not support the contention that SNe are responsible for the large mass of observed dust in high-redshift galaxies.

Type II-P supernovae as standardized candles: improvements using near-infrared data

We present the first near-infrared Hubble diagram for Type II-P supernovae (SNe), to further explore their value as distance indicators. We use a modified version of the standardized candle method, which relies on the tight correlation between the absolute magnitudes of Type II-P SNe and their expansion velocities during the plateau phase. Although our sample contains only 12 II-P SNe and they are necessarily local (z

Incorporating Higher Moments into Value at Risk Forecasting

Value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting generally relies on a parametric density function of portfolio returns that ignores higher moments or assumes them constant. In this paper, we propose a simple approach to forecasting of a portfolio VaR. We employ the Gram-Charlier expansion (GCE) augmenting the standard normal distribution with the first four moments, which are allowed to vary over time. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the GCE approach to other models of VaR forecasting and conclude that it provides accurate and robust estimates of the realized VaR. In spite of its simplicity, on our dataset GCE outperforms other estimates that are generated by both constant and time-varying higher-moments models.

Current brood size and residual reproductive value predict offspring desertion in the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides

Life-history theory suggests that offspring desertion can be an adaptive reproductive strategy, in which parents forgo the costly care of an unprofitable current brood to save resources for future reproduction. In the burying beetle, Nicrophorus vespilloides, parents commonly abandon their offspring to the care of others, resulting in female-only care, male-only care, brood parasitism, and the care of offspring sired by satellite males. Furthermore, when there is biparental care, males routinely desert the brood before larval development is complete, leaving females behind to tend their young. We attempted to understand these patterns of offspring desertion by using laboratory experiments to compare the fitness costs associated with parental care for each sex and the residual reproductive value of the 2 sexes. We also tested whether current brood size and residual reproductive value together predicted the incidence of brood desertion. We found that males and females each sustained fecundity costs as a consequence of caring for larvae and that these costs were of comparable magnitude. Nevertheless, males had greater residual reproductive value than females and were more likely than females to desert experimental broods. Our results can explain why males desert the brood earlier than females in nature and why female-only care is more common than male-only care. They also suggest that the tipping point from brood parasitism or satellite male behavior to communal breeding (and vice versa) depends on the value of the current brood relative to residual reproductive value.