Trends in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence in Europe during 1989-2008: evidence of non-uniformity over time in rates of increase

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:

The aim of the study was to describe 20-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in 23 EURODIAB centres and compare rates of increase in the first (1989-1998) and second (1999-2008) halves of the period.

METHODS:

All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. Completeness of registration is assessed by capture-recapture methodology. Twenty-three centres in 19 countries registered 49,969 new cases of type 1 diabetes in individuals diagnosed before their 15th birthday during the period studied.

RESULTS:

Ascertainment exceeded 90% in most registers. During the 20-year period, all but one register showed statistically significant changes in incidence, with rates universally increasing. When estimated separately for the first and second halves of the period, the median rates of increase were similar: 3.4% per annum and 3.3% per annum, respectively. However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half for nine of the 21 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; five registers showed significantly higher rates of increase in the first half, and four significantly higher rates in the second half.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:

The incidence rate of childhood type 1 diabetes continues to rise across Europe by an average of approximately 3-4% per annum, but the increase is not necessarily uniform, showing periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions is warranted.

Review: V. Gessner and D. Nelken (eds.), European Ways of Law (Hart, 2008)

Review of edited collection.

Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008

Objectives: To investigate seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008.
Methods: 23 population-based registers recorded date of diagnosis in new cases of clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes in children aged under 15 years. Completeness of ascertainment was assessed through capture-recapture methodology and was high in most centres. A general test for seasonal variation (11df) and Edward's test for sinusoidal (sine wave) variation (2df) were employed. Time series methods were also used to investigate if meteorological data were predictive of monthly counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.
Results: Significant seasonal variation was apparent in all but two small centres, with an excess of cases apparent in the winter quarter. Significant sinusoidal pattern was also evident in all but two small centres with peaks in December (14 centres), January (5 centres) or February (2 centres). Relative amplitude varied from ±11% to ±39% (median ±18%). There was no relationship across the centres between relative amplitude and incidence level. However there was evidence of significant deviation from the sinusoidal pattern in the majority of centres. Pooling results over centres, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, but with significantly less variation in those aged under 5 years. Boys showed marginally greater seasonal variation than girls. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four sub-periods of the 20 year period. In most centres monthly counts of cases were not associated with deviations from normal monthly average temperature or sunshine hours; short term meteorological variations do not explain numbers of cases diagnosed.
Conclusions: Seasonality with a winter excess is apparent in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5s show less marked variation. The seasonal pattern changed little in the 20 year period.

Comorbidities and current smoking status amongst patients starting renal replacement therapy in England, Wales and Northern Ireland from 2003 to 2008: national and centre-specific analyses

Introduction: The prevalence of comorbidities in incident renal replacement therapy (RRT) patients changes with age and varies between ethnic groups. This study describes these associations and the independent effect of comorbidities on outcomes. Methods: Adult patients starting RRT between 2003 and 2008 in centres reporting to the UK Renal Registry (UKRR) with data on comorbidity (n ¼ 14,909) were included. The UKRR studied the association of comorbidity with patient demographics, treatment modality, haemoglobin, renal function at start of RRT and subsequent listing for kidney transplantation. The relationship between comorbidities and mortality at 90 days and one year after 90 days from start of RRT was explored using Cox regression. Results: Completeness of comorbidity data was 40.0% compared with 54.3% in 2003. Of patients with data, 53.8% had one or more comorbidities. Diabetes mellitus and ischaemic heart disease were the most common conditions seen in 30.1% and 22.7% of patients respectively. Current smoking was recorded for 14.5% of incident RRT patients in the 6-year period. Comorbidities became more common with increasing age in all ethnic groups although the difference between the 65–74 and 75+ age groups was not significant. Within each age group, South Asians and Blacks had lower rates of comorbidity, despite higher rates of diabetes mellitus. In multivariate survival analysis, malignancy and ischaemic/neuropathic ulcers were the strongest independent predictors of poor survival at 1 year after 90 days from the start of RRT. Conclusion: Differences in prevalence of comorbid illnesses in incident RRT patients may reflect variation in access to health care or competing risk prior to commencing treatment. At the same time, smoking rates remained high in this ‘at risk’ population. Further work on this and ways to improve comorbidity reporting should be priorities for 2010–11.