Red-shifts and red herrings in geographical ecology

I draw attention to the need for ecologists to take spatial structure into account more seriously in hypothesis testing. If spatial autocorrelation is ignored, as it usually is, then analyses of ecological patterns in terms of environmental factors can produce very misleading results. This is demonstrated using synthetic but realistic spatial patterns with known spatial properties which are subjected to classical correlation and multiple regression analyses. Correlation between an autocorrelated response variable and each of a set of explanatory variables is strongly biased in favour of those explanatory variables that are highly autocorrelated - the expected magnitude of the correlation coefficient increases with autocorrelation even if the spatial patterns are completely independent. Similarly, multiple regression analysis finds highly autocorrelated explanatory variables "significant" much more frequently than it should. The chances of mistakenly identifying a "significant" slope across an autocorrelated pattern is very high if classical regression is used. Consequently, under these circumstances strongly autocorrelated environmental factors reported in the literature as associated with ecological patterns may not actually be significant. It is likely that these factors wrongly described as important constitute a red-shifted subset of the set of potential explanations, and that more spatially discontinuous factors (those with bluer spectra) are actually relatively more important than their present status suggests. There is much that ecologists can do to improve on this situation. I discuss various approaches to the problem of spatial autocorrelation from the literature and present a randomisation test for the association of two spatial patterns which has advantages over currently available methods.

Recombinant canine distemper virus strain Snyder Hill expressing green or red fluorescent proteins causes meningoencephalitis in the ferret

The propensity of canine distemper virus (CDV) to spread to the central nervous system is one of the primary features of distemper. Therefore, we developed a reverse genetics system based on the neurovirulent Snyder Hill (SH) strain of CDV (CDV(SH)) and show that this virus rapidly circumvents the blood-brain and blood-cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) barriers to spread into the subarachnoid space to induce dramatic viral meningoencephalitis. The use of recombinant CDV(SH) (rCDV(SH)) expressing enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) or red fluorescent protein (dTomato) facilitated the sensitive pathological assessment of routes of virus spread in vivo. Infection of ferrets with these viruses led to the full spectrum of clinical signs typically associated with distemper in dogs during a rapid, fatal disease course of approximately 2 weeks. Comparison with the ferret-adapted CDV(5804P) and the prototypic wild-type CDV(R252) showed that hematogenous infection of the choroid plexus is not a significant route of virus spread into the CSF. Instead, viral spread into the subarachnoid space in rCDV(SH)-infected animals was triggered by infection of vascular endothelial cells and the hematogenous spread of virus-infected leukocytes from meningeal blood vessels into the subarachnoid space. This resulted in widespread infection of cells of the pia and arachnoid mater of the leptomeninges over large areas of the cerebral hemispheres. The ability to sensitively assess the in vivo spread of a neurovirulent strain of CDV provides a novel model system to study the mechanisms of virus spread into the CSF and the pathogenesis of acute viral meningitis.

Lead contamination and associated disease in captive and reintroduced red kites Milvus milvus in England

Since 1989, a red kite Milvus milvus reintroduction programme has been underway in the United Kingdom, with 4-6 week old nestlings brought into captivity and held for 6-8 weeks before reintroduction. As scavengers, red kites may consume unretrieved game, and ingest shot or lead (Pb) fragments in their prey's flesh. We evaluated exposure to Pb in captive and wild red kites by taking blood samples from 125 captive young red kites prior to release, through analysing 264 pellets (regurgitated by wild birds) collected from under a roost site, and analysing Pb concentrations in livers and/or bones of 87 red kites found dead between 1995 and 2003. Lead isotope analyses of livers were also conducted in an effort to identify Pb exposure routes. Forty-six (36.8%) kites sampled prior to release had elevated blood Pb concentrations (201-3340 microg l(-1)). The source of this Pb was probably small fragments of lead ammunition in the carcasses of birds or mammals either fed to the nestlings by their parents or, more likely, subsequently whilst in captivity. Once released, kites were also exposed to lead shot in their food, and a minimum of 1.5-2.3% of regurgitated pellets contained Pb gunshot. Seven of 44 red kites found dead or that were captured sick and died within a few days had elevated (>6 mg kg(-1) dry weight [d.w.]) liver Pb concentrations, and six of these (14%) had concentrations of >15 mg kg(-1) d.w., compatible with fatal Pb poisoning. Post-mortem analyses indicated that two of these birds had died of other causes (poisoning by rodenticide and a banned agricultural pesticide); the remaining four (9%) probably died of Pb poisoning. Bone samples from 86 red kites showed a skewed distribution of Pb concentration, and 18 samples (21%) had Pb concentrations >20 mg kg(-1) d.w., indicating elevated exposure to Pb at some stage in the birds' life. Lead isotopic signatures (Pb (208/206); Pb (206/207)) in liver samples of the majority of kites were compatible with those found in lead shot extracted from regurgitated pellets. Lead isotope ratios found in the livers of kites with very low Pb concentrations were distinct from UK petrol Pb isotopic signatures, indicating that birds were exposed to little residual petrol Pb. We conclude that the primary source of Pb to which red kites are exposed is lead ammunition (shotgun pellets or rifle bullets), or fragments thereof, in their food sources; in some cases exposure appears sufficient to be fatal. We make recommendations to reduce Pb poisoning in both captive and wild red kites and other scavenging species.

Levels and patterns of population genetic diversity in the red seaweed Chondrus crispus (Florideophyceae): a direct comparison of single nucleotide polymorphisms and microsatellites

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are predicted to supersede microsatellites as the marker of choice for population genetic studies in the near future. To date, however, very few studies have directly compared both marker systems in natural populations, particularly in non-model organisms. In the present study, we compared the utility of SNPs and microsatellites for population genetic analysis of the red seaweed Chondrus crispus (Florideophyceae). Six SNP loci yielded very different patterns of intrapopulation genetic diversity compared to those obtained using seven moderately (mean 5.2 alleles) polymorphic microsatellite loci, although Bayesian clustering analysis gave largely congruent results between the two marker classes. A weak but significant pattern of isolation-by-distance was observed across scales from a few hundred metres to approximately 200?km using the combined SNP and microsatellite data set of 13 loci. Over larger scales, however, there was little correlation between genetic divergence and geographical distance. Our findings suggest that even a moderate number of SNPs is sufficient to determine patterns of genetic diversity across natural populations, and also highlight the fact that patterns of genetic variation in seaweeds arise through a complex interplay of short- and long-term natural processes, as well as anthropogenic influence.

Assessment of the solubility and bioaccessibility of arsenic in realgar wine using a simulated gastrointestinal system

Consumption of arsenic (As) wine is a traditional activity during the classic Chinese festival of Duanwu, colloquially known worldwide as the Dragon Boat Day. Arsenic wine is drunk on the morning of the fifth day of the fifth lunar calendar month to commemorate the death of Qu Yuan, a famed Chinese poet who drowned himself in protest of a corrupt government, and to protect against ill fortune. Although realgar minerals are characteristically composed of sparingly soluble tetra-arsenic tetra-sulfides (As(4)S(4)), purity does vary with up to 10% of As being present as non-sulfur bound species, such as arsenate (As(v)) and arsenite (As(III)). Despite, the renewed interest in As speciation and the bioaccessibility of the active As components in realgar based Chinese medicines, little is known about the safety surrounding the cultural practice of drinking As wine. In a series of experiments the speciation and solubility of As in a range of wines were investigated. Furthermore, a simulated gastrointestinal system was employed to predict the impact of digestive processes on As bioavailability. The predominant soluble As species found in all the wines were As(III) and As(v). Based on typical As wine recipes employing 0.1 g realgar mL(-1) wine, the concentration of dissolved As ranged from ca. 100 to 400 mg L(-1) depending on the ethanol content of the preparation: with the As solubility found to be higher in wines with a lower proportion of ethanol. Based on a common 100 mL measure of wine with a concentration of 400 mg As L(-1), the amount of soluble As would equate to around half of the acute minimal lethal dose for adults. This is likely an underestimate of the bioaccessible concentration, as a three-fold increase in bioaccessibility could be observed in the intestinal phase based on the results from the stimulated gastrointestinal system. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A cultural practice of drinking realgar wine leading to elevated urinary arsenic and its potential health risk

Toasting friends and family with realgar wines and painting children's foreheads and limbs with the leftover realgar/alcohol slurries is an important customary ritual during the Dragon Boat Festival (DBF); a Chinese national holiday and ancient feast day celebrated throughout Asia. Realgar is an arsenic sulfide mineral, and source of highly toxic inorganic arsenic. Despite the long history of realgar use during the DBF, associated risk to human health by arsenic ingestion or percutaneous adsorption is unknown. To address this urine samples were collected from a cohort of volunteers who were partaking in the DBF festivities. The total concentration of arsenic in the wine consumed was 70 mg L(-1) with all the arsenic found to be inorganic. Total arsenic concentrations in adult urine reached a maximum of ca. 550 mu g L(-1) (mean 220.2 mu g L(-1)) after 16 h post-ingestion of realgar wine, while face painting caused arsenic levels in children's urine to soar to 100 mu g L(-1) (mean 85.3 mu g L(-1)) 40 h after the initial paint application. The average concentration of inorganic arsenic in the urine of realgar wine drinkers on average doubled 16 h after drinking, although this was not permanent and levels subsided after 28 h. As would be expected in young children, the proportions of organic arsenic in the urine remained high throughout the 88-h monitoring period. However, even when arsenic concentrations in the urine peaked at 40 h after paint application, concentrations in the urine only declined slightly thereafter, suggesting pronounced longer term dermal accumulation and penetration of arsenic. Drinking wines blended with realgar or using realgar based paints on children does result in the significant absorption of arsenic and therefore presents a potentially serious and currently unquantified health risk. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nile blue-based nano-sized pH sensors for simultaneous far-red and near-infrared live bioimaging

Diblock copolymer vesicles are tagged with pH-responsive Nile Blue-based labels and used as a new type of pH-responsive colorimetric/fluorescent biosensor for far-red and near-infrared imaging of live cells. The diblock copolymer vesicles described herein are based on poly(2-(methacryloyloxy)ethyl phosphorylcholine-block-2-(diisopropylamino)ethyl methacrylate) [PMPC-PDPA]: the biomimetic PMPC block is known to facilitate rapid cell uptake for a wide range of cell lines, while the PDPA block constitutes the pH-responsive component that enables facile vesicle self-assembly in aqueous solution. These biocompatible vesicles can be utilized to detect interstitial hypoxic/acidic regions in a tumor model via a pH-dependent colorimetric shift. In addition, they are also useful for selective intracellular staining of lysosomes and early endosomes via subtle changes in fluorescence emission. Such nanoparticles combine efficient cellular uptake with a pH-responsive Nile Blue dye label to produce a highly versatile dual capability probe. This is in marked contrast to small molecule dyes, which are usually poorly uptaken by cells, frequently exhibit cytotoxicity, and are characterized by intracellular distributions invariably dictated by their hydrophilic/hydrophobic balance.

Determinants of WTP for Prosecco wine: A latent class regression with attitudinal responses

Purpose – Under investigation is Prosecco wine, a sparkling white wine from North-East Italy.
Information collection on consumer perceptions is particularly relevant when developing market
strategies for wine, especially so when local production and certification of origin play an important
role in the wine market of a given district, as in the case at hand. Investigating and characterizing the
structure of preference heterogeneity become crucial steps in every successful marketing strategy. The
purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of systematic differences in consumer preferences.
Design/methodology/approach – The paper explores the effect of inclusion of answers to
attitudinal questions in a latent class regression model of stated willingness to pay (WTP) for this
specialty wine. These additional variables were included in the membership equations to investigate
whether they could be of help in the identification of latent classes. The individual specific WTPs from
the sampled respondents were then derived from the best fitting model and examined for consistency.
Findings – The use of answers to attitudinal question in the latent class regression model is found to
improve model fit, thereby helping in the identification of latent classes. The best performing model
obtained makes use of both attitudinal scores and socio-economic covariates identifying five latent
classes. A reasonable pattern of differences in WTP for Prosecco between CDO and TGI types were
derived from this model.
Originality/value – The approach appears informative and promising: attitudes emerge as
important ancillary indicators of taste differences for specialty wines. This might be of interest per se
and of practical use in market segmentation. If future research shows that these variables can be of use
in other contexts, it is quite possible that more attitudinal questions will be routinely incorporated in
structural latent class hedonic models.

Sparkling wine choice from supermarket shelves: the impact of certification of origin and production practices

We report the results of a study based on revealed and stated preference data on choice of Prosecco wines in retail stores close to the origin of production in Northern Italy. Emphasis is placed on ability to reconcile the utility structure of stated preference data with that underlying revealed preference data. We extend the analysis to cover nonattendance of key attributes, such as price and certification of origin, while controlling for the large range of brand effects.

Red and dead:The progenitor of SN 2012aw in M95

Core-collapse supernovae (SNe) are the spectacular finale to massive stellar evolution. In this Letter, we identify a progenitor for the nearby core-collapse SN 2012aw in both ground based near-infrared, and space based optical pre-explosion imaging. The SN itself appears to be a normal Type II Plateau event, reaching a bolometric luminosity of 10$^{42}$ erg s$^{-1}$ and photospheric velocities of $\sim$11,000 \kms\ from the position of the H$\beta$ P-Cygni minimum in the early SN spectra. We use an adaptive optics image to show that the SN is coincident to within 27 mas with a faint, red source in pre-explosion HST+WFPC2, VLT+ISAAC and NTT+SOFI images. The source has magnitudes $F555W$=26.70$\pm$0.06, $F814W$=23.39$\pm$0.02, $J$=21.1$\pm$0.2, $K$=19.1$\pm$0.4, which when compared to a grid of stellar models best matches a red supergiant. Interestingly, the spectral energy distribution of the progenitor also implies an extinction of $A_V>$1.2 mag, whereas the SN itself does not appear to be significantly extinguished. We interpret this as evidence for the destruction of dust in the SN explosion. The progenitor candidate has a luminosity between 5.0 and 5.6 log L/\lsun, corresponding to a ZAMS mass between 14 and 26 \msun\ (depending on $A_V$), which would make this one of the most massive progenitors found for a core-collapse SN to date.