Complexity of concern: Social acceptance of wind energy and the inevitability of dissensus

This presentation will explore the  role that social acceptance of onshore wind can play in understanding and progressing the low carbon transition in Europe. Although this is commonly perceived as arising simply from the overall level of renewable energy generated (and ‘dirty’ energy displaced), its significance goes well beyond this as it helps us understand some of the key issues facing the electricity sector as a social-technical system.  As such it is not only a matter of delivering the necessary infrastructure, but requires the long term mediation of complex multi-governmental arrangements involving a very wide range of actors. The interests of these actors engage hugely different timescales, geographic scales of concern and rationalities that make the arena of social acceptance a cauldron of complexity, mediating between overlapping and incompatible concerns. The presentation will briefly review the nature of some of these relationships and discuss what this means for how we conceive and act on the social acceptance of wind, and what this means for the long term low carbon transition

BER evaluation of a low complexity transmit diversity scheme and its application to MIMO-BICM

In this paper, we first provide a theoretical validation for a low-complexity transmit diversity algorithm which employs only one RF chain and a low-complexity switch for transmission. Our theoretical analysis is compared to the simulation results and proved to be accurate. We then apply the transmit diversity scheme to multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO) systems with bit-interleaved coded modulation (BICM). © 2012 IEEE.

Correlation of phantom-based and log file patient-specific QA with complexity scores for VMAT

The motivation for this study was to reduce physics workload relating to patient- specific quality assurance (QA). VMAT plan delivery accuracy was determined from analysis of pre- and on-treatment trajectory log files and phantom-based ionization chamber array measurements. The correlation in this combination of measurements for patient-specific QA was investigated. The relationship between delivery errors and plan complexity was investigated as a potential method to further reduce patient-specific QA workload. Thirty VMAT plans from three treatment sites - prostate only, prostate and pelvic node (PPN), and head and neck (H&N) - were retrospectively analyzed in this work. The 2D fluence delivery reconstructed from pretreatment and on-treatment trajectory log files was compared with the planned fluence using gamma analysis. Pretreatment dose delivery verification was also car- ried out using gamma analysis of ionization chamber array measurements compared with calculated doses. Pearson correlations were used to explore any relationship between trajectory log file (pretreatment and on-treatment) and ionization chamber array gamma results (pretreatment). Plan complexity was assessed using the MU/ arc and the modulation complexity score (MCS), with Pearson correlations used to examine any relationships between complexity metrics and plan delivery accu- racy. Trajectory log files were also used to further explore the accuracy of MLC and gantry positions. Pretreatment 1%/1 mm gamma passing rates for trajectory log file analysis were 99.1% (98.7%-99.2%), 99.3% (99.1%-99.5%), and 98.4% (97.3%-98.8%) (median (IQR)) for prostate, PPN, and H&N, respectively, and were significantly correlated to on-treatment trajectory log file gamma results (R = 0.989, p < 0.001). Pretreatment ionization chamber array (2%/2 mm) gamma results were also significantly correlated with on-treatment trajectory log file gamma results (R = 0.623, p < 0.001). Furthermore, all gamma results displayed a significant correlation with MCS (R > 0.57, p < 0.001), but not with MU/arc. Average MLC position and gantry angle errors were 0.001 ± 0.002 mm and 0.025° ± 0.008° over all treatment sites and were not found to affect delivery accuracy. However, vari- ability in MLC speed was found to be directly related to MLC position accuracy. The accuracy of VMAT plan delivery assessed using pretreatment trajectory log file fluence delivery and ionization chamber array measurements were strongly correlated with on-treatment trajectory log file fluence delivery. The strong corre- lation between trajectory log file and phantom-based gamma results demonstrates potential to reduce our current patient-specific QA. Additionally, insight into MLC and gantry position accuracy through trajectory log file analysis and the strong cor- relation between gamma analysis results and the MCS could also provide further methodologies to both optimize the VMAT planning and QA process. 

Probabilistic Inference in Credal Networks: New Complexity Results

Credal networks are graph-based statistical models whose parameters take values in a set, instead of being sharply specified as in traditional statistical models (e.g., Bayesian networks). The computational complexity of inferences on such models depends on the irrelevance/independence concept adopted. In this paper, we study inferential complexity under the concepts of epistemic irrelevance and strong independence. We show that inferences under strong independence are NP-hard even in trees with binary variables except for a single ternary one. We prove that under epistemic irrelevance the polynomial-time complexity of inferences in credal trees is not likely to extend to more general models (e.g., singly connected topologies). These results clearly distinguish networks that admit efficient inferences and those where inferences are most likely hard, and settle several open questions regarding their computational complexity. We show that these results remain valid even if we disallow the use of zero probabilities. We also show that the computation of bounds on the probability of the future state in a hidden Markov model is the same whether we assume epistemic irrelevance or strong independence, and we prove an analogous result for inference in Naive Bayes structures. These inferential equivalences are important for practitioners, as hidden Markov models and Naive Bayes networks are used in real applications of imprecise probability.

On the complexity of solving polytree-shaped limited memory influence diagrams with binary variables

Influence diagrams are intuitive and concise representations of structured decision problems. When the problem is non-Markovian, an optimal strategy can be exponentially large in the size of the diagram. We can avoid the inherent intractability by constraining the size of admissible strategies, giving rise to limited memory influence diagrams. A valuable question is then how small do strategies need to be to enable efficient optimal planning. Arguably, the smallest strategies one can conceive simply prescribe an action for each time step, without considering past decisions or observations. Previous work has shown that finding such optimal strategies even for polytree-shaped diagrams with ternary variables and a single value node is NP-hard, but the case of binary variables was left open. In this paper we address such a case, by first noting that optimal strategies can be obtained in polynomial time for polytree-shaped diagrams with binary variables and a single value node. We then show that the same problem is NP-hard if the diagram has multiple value nodes. These two results close the fixed-parameter complexity analysis of optimal strategy selection in influence diagrams parametrized by the shape of the diagram, the number of value nodes and the maximum variable cardinality.

On the Complexity of Strong and Epistemic Credal Networks

Credal networks are graph-based statistical models whose parameters take values on a set, instead of being sharply specified as in traditional statistical models (e.g., Bayesian networks). The result of inferences with such models depends on the irrelevance/independence concept adopted. In this paper, we study the computational complexity of inferences under the concepts of epistemic irrelevance and strong independence. We strengthen complexity results by showing that inferences with strong independence are NP-hard even in credal trees with ternary variables, which indicates that tractable algorithms, including the existing one for epistemic trees, cannot be used for strong independence. We prove that the polynomial time of inferences in credal trees under epistemic irrelevance is not likely to extend to more general models, because the problem becomes NP-hard even in simple polytrees. These results draw a definite line between networks with efficient inferences and those where inferences are hard, and close several open questions regarding the computational complexity of such models.

Complexity of Inferences in Polytree-shaped Semi-Qualitative Probabilistic Networks

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the Bayesian networks. This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that inferences can be performed in linear time if there is a single observed node, which is a relevant practical case. Because our proof is constructive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynomial-time algorithm for SQPNs. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

New Complexity Results for MAP in Bayesian Networks

This paper presents new results for the (partial) maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem in Bayesian networks, which is the problem of querying the most probable state configuration of some of the network variables given evidence. It is demonstrated that the problem remains hard even in networks with very simple topology, such as binary polytrees and simple trees (including the Naive Bayes structure), which extends previous complexity results. Furthermore, a Fully Polynomial Time Approximation Scheme for MAP in networks with bounded treewidth and bounded number of states per variable is developed. Approximation schemes were thought to be impossible, but here it is shown otherwise under the assumptions just mentioned, which are adopted in most applications.

The Complexity of Approximately Solving Influence Diagrams

Influence diagrams allow for intuitive and yet precise description of complex situations involving decision making under uncertainty. Unfortunately, most of the problems described by influence diagrams are hard to solve. In this paper we discuss the complexity of approximately solving influence diagrams. We do not assume no-forgetting or regularity, which makes the class of problems we address very broad. Remarkably, we show that when both the treewidth and the cardinality of the variables are bounded the problem admits a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme.

The Inferential Complexity of Bayesian and Credal Networks

This paper presents new results on the complexity of graph-theoretical models that represent probabilities (Bayesian networks) and that represent interval and set valued probabilities (credal networks). We define a new class of networks with bounded width, and introduce a new decision problem for Bayesian networks, the maximin a posteriori. We present new links between the Bayesian and credal networks, and present new results both for Bayesian networks (most probable explanation with observations, maximin a posteriori) and for credal networks (bounds on probabilities a posteriori, most probable explanation with and without observations, maximum a posteriori).

On the Complexity of Universal Leader Election

Electing a leader is a fundamental task in distributed computing. In its implicit version, only the leader must know who is the elected leader. This article focuses on studying the message and time complexity of randomized implicit leader election in synchronous distributed networks. Surprisingly, the most "obvious" complexity bounds have not been proven for randomized algorithms. In particular, the seemingly obvious lower bounds of Ω(m) messages, where m is the number of edges in the network, and Ω(D) time, where D is the network diameter, are nontrivial to show for randomized (Monte Carlo) algorithms. (Recent results, showing that even Ω(n), where n is the number of nodes in the network, is not a lower bound on the messages in complete networks, make the above bounds somewhat less obvious). To the best of our knowledge, these basic lower bounds have not been established even for deterministic algorithms, except for the restricted case of comparison algorithms, where it was also required that nodes may not wake up spontaneously and that D and n were not known. We establish these fundamental lower bounds in this article for the general case, even for randomized Monte Carlo algorithms. Our lower bounds are universal in the sense that they hold for all universal algorithms (namely, algorithms that work for all graphs), apply to every D, m, and n, and hold even if D, m, and n are known, all the nodes wake up simultaneously, and the algorithms can make any use of node's identities. To show that these bounds are tight, we present an O(m) messages algorithm. An O(D) time leader election algorithm is known. A slight adaptation of our lower bound technique gives rise to an Ω(m) message lower bound for randomized broadcast algorithms. 

An interesting fundamental problem is whether both upper bounds (messages and time) can be reached simultaneously in the randomized setting for all graphs. The answer is known to be negative in the deterministic setting. We answer this problem partially by presenting a randomized algorithm that matches both complexities in some cases. This already separates (for some cases) randomized algorithms from deterministic ones. As first steps towards the general case, we present several universal leader election algorithms with bounds that tradeoff messages versus time. We view our results as a step towards understanding the complexity of universal leader election in distributed networks.

Reviewing the Literature on the Breakdown of Foster Care Placements for Young People: Complexity and the Social Work Task

Young people in long-term foster care are at risk of experiencing poor social, emotional, behavioural and educational outcomes. Moreover, these placements have a significantly greater chance of breaking down compared to those involving children. This article critically evaluates the factors associated with this particular outcome. It was carried out through a literature review conducted by a social work practitioner in one Health and Social Care Trust in Northern Ireland. The findings evidenced that, apart from overriding safety concerns, placement breakdown was not a one-off event but rather a complex process involving the interplay between a range of dynamic risk and protective factors over time, operating in the wider context of the young person’s history and life experiences. The significance of these findings for social work practitioners is finally considered by identifying key theories to inform understanding and intervention.

Low complexity greedy detection method with generalized multicarrier index keying OFDM

Multicarrier Index Keying (MCIK) is a recently developed technique that modulates subcarriers but also indices of the subcarriers. In this paper a novel low-complexity detection scheme of subcarrier indices is proposed for an MCIK system and addresses a substantial reduction in complexity over the optimalmaximum likelihood (ML) detection. For the performance evaluation, a closed-form expression for the pairwise error probability (PEP) of an active subcarrier index, and a tight approximation of the average PEP of multiple subcarrier indices are derived in closed-form. The theoretical outcomes are validated usingsimulations, at a difference of less than 0.1dB. Compared to the optimal ML, the proposed detection achieves a substantial reduction in complexity with small loss in error performance (<= 0.6dB).