Modelling Patient Duration of Stay to Facilitate Resource Management of Geriatric Hospitals

A fundamental aspect of health care management is the effective allocation of resources. This is of particular importance in geriatric hospitals where elderly patients tend to have more complex needs. Hospital managers would benefit immensely if they had advance knowledge of patient duration of stay in hospital. Managers could assess the costs of patient care and make allowances for these in their budget. In this paper, we tackle this important problem via a model which predicts the duration of stay distribution of patients in hospital. The approach uses phase-type distributions conditioned on a Bayesian belief network.

Using Coxian Phase-Type Distributions to Identify Patient Characteristics for Duration of Stay in Hospital

Coxian phase-type distributions are a special type of Markov model that describes duration until an event occurs in terms of a process consisting of a sequence of latent phases. This paper considers the use of Coxian phase-type distributions for modelling patient duration of stay for the elderly in hospital and investigates the potential for using the resulting distribution as a classifying variable to identify common characteristics between different groups of patients according to their (anticipated) length of stay in hospital. The identification of common characteristics for patient length of stay groups would offer hospital managers and clinicians possible insights into the overall management and bed allocation of the hospital wards.

Length of Stay-Based Patient Flow Models: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Modelling patient flow in health care systems is vital in understanding the system activity and may therefore prove to be useful in improving their functionality. An extensively used measure is the average length of stay which, although easy to calculate and quantify, is not considered appropriate when the distribution is very long-tailed. In fact, simple deterministic models are generally considered inadequate because of the necessity for models to reflect the complex, variable, dynamic and multidimensional nature of the systems. This paper focuses on modelling length of stay and flow of patients. An overview of such modelling techniques is provided, with particular attention to their impact and suitability in managing a hospital service.

Simulating Coxian Phase-type Distributions for Patient Survival

Coxian phase-type distributions are a special type of Markov model that can be used to represent survival times in terms of phases through which an individual may progress until they eventually leave the system completely. Previous research has considered the Coxian phase-type distribution to be ideal in representing patient survival in hospital. However, problems exist in fitting the distributions. This paper investigates the problems that arise with the fitting process by simulating various Coxian phase-type models for the representation of patient survival and examining the estimated parameter values and eigenvalues obtained. The results indicate that numerical methods previously used for fitting the model parameters do not always converge. An alternative technique is therefore considered. All methods are influenced by the choice of initial parameter values. The investigation uses a data set of 1439 elderly patients and models their survival time, the length of time they spend in a UK hospital.

Effect of tailored practice and patient care plans on secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice: cluster randomised controlled trial

Objective: To test the effectiveness of a complex intervention designed, within a theoretical framework, to improve outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease. Design: Cluster randomised controlled multicentre trial. Setting: General practices in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, regions with different healthcare systems. Participants: 903 patients with established coronary heart disease registered with one of 48 practices. Intervention: Tailored care plans for practices (practice based training in prescribing and behaviour change, administrative support, quarterly newsletter), and tailored care plans for patients (motivational interviewing, goal identification, and target setting for lifestyle change) with reviews every four months at the practices. Control practices provided usual care. Main outcome measures: The proportion of patients at 18 month follow-up above target levels for blood pressure and total cholesterol concentration, and those admitted to hospital, and changes in physical and mental health status (SF-12). Results: At baseline the numbers (proportions) of patients above the recommended limits were: systolic blood pressure greater than 140 mm Hg (305/899; 33.9%, 95% confidence interval 30.8% to 33.9%), diastolic blood pressure greater than 90 mm Hg (111/901; 12.3%, 10.2% to 14.5%), and total cholesterol concentration greater than 5 mmol/l (188/860; 20.8%, 19.1% to 24.6%). At the 18 month follow-up there were no significant differences between intervention and control groups in the numbers (proportions) of patients above the recommended limits: systolic blood pressure, intervention 98/360 (27.2%) v control, 133/405 (32.8%), odds ratio 1.51 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 2.30; P=0.06); diastolic blood pressure, intervention 32/360 (8.9%) v control, 40/405 (9.9%), 1.40 (0.75 to 2.64; P=0.29); and total cholesterol concentration, intervention 52/342 (15.2%) v control, 64/391 (16.4%), 1.13 (0.63 to 2.03; P=0.65). The number of patients admitted to hospital over the 18 month study period significantly decreased in the intervention group compared with the control group: 107/415 (25.8%) v 148/435 (34.0%), 1.56 (1.53 to 2.60; P=0.03). Conclusions: Admissions to hospital were significantly reduced after an intensive 18 month intervention to improve outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease, but no other clinical benefits were shown, possibly because of a ceiling effect related to improved management of the disease. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24081411.

Copying letters to patients with cystic fibrosis (CF): Letter content and patient perceptions of benefit

Background: Copying letters involves generating an extra copy of all correspondence between healthcare professionals about the patient, to the patient.

Birthweight and the risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes: a meta-analysis of observational studies using individual patient data

Aims/hypothesis: We investigated whether children who are heavier at birth have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes. Methods: Relevant studies published before February 2009 were identified from literature searches using MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of all studies containing relevant data were contacted and asked to provide individual patient data or conduct pre-specified analyses. Risk estimates of type 1 diabetes by category of birthweight were calculated for each study, before and after adjustment for potential confounders. Meta-analysis techniques were then used to derive combined ORs and investigate heterogeneity between studies. Results: Data were available for 29 predominantly European studies (five cohort, 24 case-control studies), including 12,807 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, studies consistently demonstrated that children with birthweight from 3.5 to 4 kg had an increased risk of diabetes of 6% (OR 1.06 [95% CI 1.01-1.11]; p=0.02) and children with birthweight over 4 kg had an increased risk of 10% (OR 1.10 [95% CI 1.04-1.19]; p=0.003), compared with children weighing 3.0 to 3.5 kg at birth. This corresponded to a linear increase in diabetes risk of 3% per 500 g increase in birthweight (OR 1.03 [95% CI 1.00-1.06]; p=0.03). Adjustments for potential confounders such as gestational age, maternal age, birth order, Caesarean section, breastfeeding and maternal diabetes had little effect on these findings. Conclusions/interpretation: Children who are heavier at birth have a significant and consistent, but relatively small increase in risk of type 1 diabetes. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.


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Country-wise differences in perception of health-related messages in cereal-based food products

The objective of the present study was to explore the impact of health-related messages on the perceived overall healthiness and consumers' likelihood to buy cereal-based products or non-cereal products containing beneficial compounds from grains, across four European countries. The data were collected from a sample of 2392 members of the public in Finland, Germany, Italy and the UK. The results from a conjoint task with a main effects additive model were reported. In general, the presence of a verbal health claim on foods had positive influence on respondents perception of healthiness and on likelihood to buy the products, whereas the pictorial health claims were found to have a weak influence on the two dependent variables. However, the findings showed that health-related information on food labels differently influenced the healthiness perception and the likelihood to buy the product across the four countries, suggesting that different cultures, traditions, and eating habits have to be taken into account before positioning cereal-based products containing beneficial compounds from grains on the market. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of the Graphical Levels of Detail of a Virtual Thrower on the Perception of the Movement

Virtual reality has a number of advantages for analyzing sports interactions such as the standardization of experimental conditions, stereoscopic vision, and complete control of animated humanoid movement. Nevertheless, in order to be useful for sports applications, accurate perception of simulated movement in the virtual sports environment is essential. This perception depends on parameters of the synthetic character such as the number of degrees of freedom of its skeleton or the levels of detail (LOD) of its graphical representation. This study focuses on the influence of this latter parameter on the perception of the movement. In order to evaluate it, this study analyzes the judgments of immersed handball goalkeepers that play against a graphically modified virtual thrower. Five graphical representations of the throwing action were defined: a textured reference level (L0), a nontextured level (L1), a wire-frame level (L2), a moving point light display (MLD) level with a normal-sized ball (L3), and a MLD level where the ball is represented by a point of light (L4). The results show that judgments made by goalkeepers in the L4 condition are significantly less accurate than in all the other conditions (p

Spatial Perception and Cognition in Multichannel Audio for Electroacoustic Music

Listeners experience electroacoustic music as full of significance and meaning, and they experience spatiality as one of the factors contributing to its meaningfulness. If we want to understand spatiality in electroacoustic music, we must understand how the listener’s mental processes give rise to the experience of meaning. In electroacoustic music as in everyday life, these mental processes unite the peripheral auditory system with human spatial cognition. In the discussion that follows we consider a range of the listener’s mental processes relating space and meaning from the perceptual attributes of spatial imagery to the spatial reference frames for places and navigation. When considering multichannel loudspeaker systems in particular, an important part of the discussion is focused on the distinctive and idiomatic ways in which this particular mode of sound production contributes to and situates meaning. These idiosyncrasies include the phenomenon of image dispersion, the important consequences of the precedence effect and the influence of source characteristics on spatial imagery. These are discussed in close relation to the practicalities of artistic practice and to the potential for artistic meaning experienced by the listener.