Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400–500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

Leisure sports and postural control:Can a black belt protect your balance from aging?

To determine potential benefits of intensive leisure sports for age-related changes in postural control, we tested 3 activity groups comprising 70 young (M = 21.67 years, SD = 2.80) and 73 older (M = 62.60 years, SD = 5.19) men. Activity groups were martial artists, who held at least 1st Dan (black belt), sportive individuals exercising sports without explicit balance components, and nonsportive controls. Martial artists had an advantage over sportive individuals in dynamic posture tasks (upright stance on a sway-referenced platform), and these 2 active groups showed better postural control than nonsportive participants. Age-related differences in postural control were larger in nonsportive men compared with the 2 active groups, who were similar in this respect. In contrast, negative age differences in other sensorimotor and cognitive functions did not differ between activity groups. We concluded that individuals engaging in intensive recreational sports have long-term advantages in postural control. However, even in older martial artists with years of practice in their sports, we observed considerable differences favoring the young. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Physical and dynamical characterisation of low ΔV NEA (190491) 2000 FJ10

Aims: We investigated the physical properties and dynamical evolution of near-Earth asteroid (NEA) (190491) 2000 FJ10 in order to assess the suitability of this accessible NEA as a space mission target. Methods: Photometry and colour determination were carried out with the 1.54 m Kuiper Telescope (Mt Bigelow, USA) and the 10 m Southern African Large Telescope (SALT; Sutherland, South Africa) during the object's recent favourable apparition in 2011-12. During the earlier 2008 apparition, a spectrum of the object in the 6000-9000 Angstrom region was obtained with the 4.2 m William Herschel Telescope (WHT; Canary Islands, Spain). Interpretation of the observational results was aided by numerical simulations of 1000 dynamical clones of 2000 FJ10 up to 106 yr in the past and in the future. Results: The asteroid's spectrum and colours determined by our observations suggest a taxonomic classification within the S-complex although other classifications (V, D, E, M, P) cannot be ruled out. On this evidence, it is unlikely to be a primitive, relatively unaltered remnant from the early history of the solar system and thus a low priority target for robotic sample return. Our photometry placed a lower bound of 2 h to the asteroid's rotation period. Its absolute magnitude was estimated to be 21.54 ± 0.1 which, for a typical S-complex albedo, translates into a diameter of 130 ± 20 m. Our dynamical simulations show that it has likely been an Amor for the past 105 yr. Although currently not Earth-crossing, it will likely become so during the period 50-100 kyr in the future. It may have arrived from the inner or central main belt >1 Myr ago as a former member of a low-inclination S-class asteroid family. Its relatively slow rotation and large size make it a suitable destination for a human mission. We show that ballistic Earth-190491-Earth transfer trajectories with ΔV <2 km s-1 at the asteroid exist between 2052 and 2061. Based on observations made with the Southern African Large Telescope (SALT).

The Pan-STARRS Moving Object Processing System

We describe the Pan-STARRS Moving Object Processing System (MOPS), a modern software package that produces automatic asteroid discoveries and identifications from catalogs of transient detections from next-generation astronomical survey telescopes. MOPS achieves >99.5% efficiency in producing orbits from a synthetic but realistic population of asteroids whose measurements were simulated for a Pan-STARRS4-class telescope. Additionally, using a nonphysical grid population, we demonstrate that MOPS can detect populations of currently unknown objects such as interstellar asteroids. MOPS has been adapted successfully to the prototype Pan-STARRS1 telescope despite differences in expected false detection rates, fill-factor loss, and relatively sparse observing cadence compared to a hypothetical Pan-STARRS4 telescope and survey. MOPS remains highly efficient at detecting objects but drops to 80% efficiency at producing orbits. This loss is primarily due to configurable MOPS processing limits that are not yet tuned for the Pan-STARRS1 mission. The core MOPS software package is the product of more than 15 person-years of software development and incorporates countless additional years of effort in third-party software to perform lower-level functions such as spatial searching or orbit determination. We describe the high-level design of MOPS and essential subcomponents, the suitability of MOPS for other survey programs, and suggest a road map for future MOPS development.

Main-belt Comet P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS)

We present initial results from observations and numerical analyses aimed at characterizing the main-belt comet P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS). Optical monitoring observations were made between 2012 October and 2013 February using the University of Hawaii 2.2 m telescope, the Keck I telescope, the Baade and Clay Magellan telescopes, Faulkes Telescope South, the Perkins Telescope at Lowell Observatory, and the Southern Astrophysical Research Telescope. The object's intrinsic brightness approximately doubles from the time of its discovery in early October until mid-November and then decreases by ~60% between late December and early February, similar to photometric behavior exhibited by several other main-belt comets and unlike that exhibited by disrupted asteroid (596) Scheila. We also used Keck to conduct spectroscopic searches for CN emission as well as absorption at 0.7 μm that could indicate the presence of hydrated minerals, finding an upper limit CN production rate of Q CN <1.5 × 1023 mol s-1, from which we infer a water production rate of Q_H_2O100 Myr and is unlikely to be a recently implanted interloper from the outer solar system, while a search for potential asteroid family associations reveals that it is dynamically linked to the ~155 Myr old Lixiaohua asteroid family. Some of the data presented herein were obtained at the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and made possible by the generous financial support of the W. M. Keck Foundation, the Magellan Telescopes located at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile, and the Southern Astrophysical Research (SOAR) telescope, which is a joint project of the Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, e Inovação (MCTI) da República Federativa do Brasil, the U.S. National Optical Astronomy Observatory (NOAO), the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), and Michigan State University (MSU).

Toward Characterization Of The Type IIP Supernova Progenitor Population: A Statistical Sample Of Light Curves From Pan-STARRS1

In recent years, wide-field sky surveys providing deep multi-band imaging have presented a new path for indirectly characterizing the progenitor populations of core-collapse supernovae (SN): systematic light curve studies. We assemble a set of 76 grizy-band Type IIP SN light curves from Pan-STARRS1, obtained over a constant survey program of 4 years and classified using both spectroscopy and machine learning-based photometric techniques. We develop and apply a new Bayesian model for the full multi-band evolution of each light curve in the sample. We find no evidence of a sub-population of fast-declining explosions (historically referred to as "Type IIL" SNe). However, we identify a highly significant relation between the plateau phase decay rate and peak luminosity among our SNe IIP. These results argue in favor of a single parameter, likely determined by initial stellar mass, predominantly controlling the explosions of red supergiants. This relation could also be applied for supernova cosmology, offering a standardizable candle good to an intrinsic scatter of 0.2 mag. We compare each light curve to physical models from hydrodynamic simulations to estimate progenitor initial masses and other properties of the Pan-STARRS1 Type IIP SN sample. We show that correction of systematic discrepancies between modeled and observed SN IIP light curve properties and an expanded grid of progenitor properties, are needed to enable robust progenitor inferences from multi-band light curve samples of this kind. This work will serve as a pathfinder for photometric studies of core-collapse SNe to be conducted through future wide field transient searches.

Sublimation-Driven Activity in Main-Belt Comet 313p/Gibbs

We present an observational and dynamical study of newly discovered main-belt comet 313P/Gibbs. We find that the object is clearly active both in observations obtained in 2014 and in precovery observations obtained in 2003 by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, strongly suggestingthat its activity is sublimation-driven. This conclusion is supported by a photometric analysis showing an increase in the total brightness of the comet over the 2014 observing period, and dust modeling resultsshowing that the dust emission persists over at least three months during both active periods, where we find start dates for emission nolater than 2003 July 24 ± 10 for the 2003 active period and 2014 July 28 ± 10 for the 2014 active period. From serendipitous observations by the Subaru Telescope in 2004 when the object was apparently inactive, we estimate that the nucleus has an absolute R-band magnitude of HR = 17.1 ± 0.3, corresponding to aneffective nucleus radius of re ∼ 1.00 ± 0.15 km.The object’s faintness at that time means we cannot rule out the presence of activity, and so this computed radius should be consideredan upper limit. We find that 313P’s orbit is intrinsically chaotic, having a Lyapunov time of Tl = 12,000 yr and beinglocated near two three-body mean-motion resonances with Jupiter andSaturn, 11J-1S-5A and 10J+12S-7A, yet appears stable over >50 Myr in an apparent example of stable chaos. We furthermore find that 313P is the second main-belt comet, after P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS), to belong tothe ∼155 Myr old Lixiaohua asteroid family.

Absolute Magnitudes of Pan-STARRS PS1 Asteroids

Absolute magnitude (H) of an asteroid is a fundamental parameter describing the size and the apparent brightness of the body. Because of its surface shape, properties and changing illumination, the brightness changes with the geometry and is described by the phase function governed by the slope parameter (G). Although many years have been spent on detailed observations of individual asteroids to provide H and G, vast majority of minor planets have H based on assumed G and due to the input photometry from multiple sources the errors of these values are unknown. We compute H of ~ 180 000 and G of few thousands asteroids observed with the Pan-STARRS PS1 telescope in well defined photometric systems. The mean photometric error is 0.04 mag. Because on average there are only 7 detections per asteroid in our sample, we employed a Monte Carlo (MC) technique to generate clones simulating all possible rotation periods, amplitudes and colors of detected asteroids. Known asteroid colors were taken from the SDSS database. We used debiased spin and amplitude distributions dependent on size, spectral class distributions of asteroids dependent on semi-major axis and starting values of G from previous works. H and G (G12 respectively) were derived by phase functions by Bowell et al. (1989) and Muinonen et al. (2010). We confirmed that there is a positive systematic offset between H based on PS1 asteroids and Minor Planet Center database up to -0.3 mag peaking at 14. Similar offset was first mentioned in the analysis of SDSS asteroids and was believed to be solved by weighting and normalizing magnitudes by observatory codes. MC shows that there is only a negligible difference between Bowell's and Muinonen's solution of H. However, Muinonen's phase function provides smaller errors on H. We also derived G and G12 for thousands of asteroids. For known spectral classes, slope parameters agree with the previous work in general, however, the standard deviation of G in our sample is twice as larger, most likely due to sparse phase curve sampling. In the near future we plan to complete the H and G determination for all PS1 asteroids (500,000) and publish H and G values online. This work was supported by NASA grant No. NNX12AR65G.

Absolute Magnitudes of Pan-STARRS 1 Asteroids

It is well known that the absolute magnitudes (H) in the MPCORB and ASTORB orbital element catalogs suffer from a systematic offset. Juric at al. (2002) found 0.4 mag offset in the SDSS data and detailed light curve studies of WISE asteroids by Pravec et al. (2012) revealed size-dependent offsets of up to 0.5 mag. The offsets are thought to be caused by systematic errors introduced by earlier surveys using different photometric catalogs and filters. The next generation asteroid surveys provide an order of magnitude more asteroids and well-defined and calibrated magnitudes. The Pan-STARRS 1 telescope (PS1) has observed hundreds of thousands asteroids, submitted more than 2 million detections to the Minor Planet Center (MPC) and discovered almost 300 NEOs since the beginning of operations in late 2010. We transformed the observed apparent magnitudes of PS1-detected asteroids from the gP1,rP1,iP1,yP1,zP1 and wP1-bands into Johnson photometric system by assuming the mean S and C-type asteroid color (Fitzsimmons 2011 - personal communication, Schlafly et al. 2012, Magnier et al. 2012 - in preparation) and calculated the absolute magnitude (H) in the V-band and its uncertainty (Bowell et al., 1989) for more than 200,000 known asteroids having on average 6.7 detections per object. The H error with respect to the MPCORB catalog revealed a mean offset of -0.49+0.30 mag in good agreement with published values. We will also discuss the statistical and systematical errors in H and slope parameter G.

Castalia — A Mission to a Main Belt Comet

Main Belt Comets (MBCs) are a newly identified class of solar system object, having asteroid-like orbits but sometimes exhibiting comet-like behavior. We present the case for a mission to an MBC, to be submitted to the European Space Agency.

Absolute magnitudes and slope parameters of Pan-STARRS PS1 asteroids -preliminary results

We present the study of absolute magnitude (H) and slope parameter (G) of 170,000 asteroids observed by the Pan-STARRS1 telescope during the period of 15 months within its 3-year all-sky survey mission. The exquisite photometry with photometric errors below 0.04 mag and well-defined filter and photometric system allowed to derive H and G with statistical and systematic errors. Our new approach lies in the Monte Carlo technique simulating rotation periods, amplitudes, and colors, and deriving most-likely H, G and their systematic errors. Comparison of H_M by Muinonen's phase function (Muinonen et al., 2010) with the Minor Planet Center database revealed a negative offset of 0.22±0.29 meaning that Pan-STARRS1 asteroids are fainter. We showed that the absolute magnitude derived by Muinonen's function is systematically larger on average by 0.14±0.29 and by 0.30±0.16 when assuming fixed slope parameter (G=0.15, G_{12}=0.53) than Bowell's absolute magnitude (Bowell et al., 1989). We also derived slope parameters of asteroids of known spectral types and showed a good agreement with the previous studies within the derived uncertainties. However, our systematic errors on G and G_{12} are significantly larger than in previous work, which is caused by poor temporal and phase coverage of vast majority of the detected asteroids. This disadvantage will vanish when full survey data will be available and ongoing extended and enhanced mission will provide new data.