103 resultados para PROBABILITY REPRESENTATION
Resumo:
In the digital age, the hyperspace of virtual reality systems stands out as a new spatial concept creating a parallel realm to "real" space. Virtual reality influences one’s experience of and interaction with architectural space. This "otherworld" brings up the criticism of the existing conception of space, time and body. Hyperspaces are relatively new to designers but not to filmmakers. Their cinematic representations help the comprehension of the outcomes of these new spaces. Visualisation of futuristic ideas on the big screen turns film into a medium for spatial experimentation. Creating a possible future, The Matrix (Andy and Larry Wachowski, 1999) takes the concept of hyperspace to a level not-yet-realised but imagined. With a critical gaze at the existing norms of architecture, the film creates new horizons in terms of space. In this context, this study introduces science fiction cinema as a discussion medium to understand the potentials of virtual reality systems for the architecture of the twenty first century. As a "role model" cinema helps to better understand technological and spatial shifts. It acts as a vehicle for going beyond the spatial theories and designs of the twentieth century, and defining the conception of space in contemporary architecture.
Resumo:
The contradiction between acknowledgement of cultural differences and their accommodation in public has been a constant theme in studies of diverse societies. This review essay discusses five volumes that grapple with questions of Romani inclusion and the problems Roma face across Europe. The volumes under review point to problems faced by Romani communities and analyse the various legal, political and social challenges that situation of the Roma poses to institutions of contemporary societies. The essay reviews the challenging nature of the status of Roma as we move away from the one-sided towards more reciprocal relationship engagement of state with society in general, and the multiply excluded groups, in particular. The essay finds that the role Roma play in these relationships is either over-, or under-estimated by the literature, largely as a result of limited opportunities to acknowledge and, in effect, accommodate Roma who are rarely understood as actors in their own right.
Resumo:
The literature has difficulty explaining why the number of parties in majoritarian electoral systems often exceeds the two-party predictions associated with Duverger’s Law. To understand why this is the case, I examine several party systems in Western Europe before the adoption of proportional representation. Drawing from the social cleavage approach, I argue that the emergence of multiparty systems was because of the development of the class cleavage, which provided a base of voters sizeable enough to support third parties. However, in countries where the class cleavage became the largest cleavage, the class divide displaced other cleavages and the number of parties began to converge on two. The results show that the effect of the class cleavage was nonlinear, producing the greatest party system fragmentation in countries where class cleavages were present – but not dominant – and smaller in countries where class cleavages were either dominant or non-existent.
Resumo:
Kuznetsov independence of variables X and Y means that, for any pair of bounded functions f(X) and g(Y), E[f(X)g(Y)]=E[f(X)] *times* E[g(Y)], where E[.] denotes interval-valued expectation and *times* denotes interval multiplication. We present properties of Kuznetsov independence for several variables, and connect it with other concepts of independence in the literature; in particular we show that strong extensions are always included in sets of probability distributions whose lower and upper expectations satisfy Kuznetsov independence. We introduce an algorithm that computes lower expectations subject to judgments of Kuznetsov independence by mixing column generation techniques with nonlinear programming. Finally, we define a concept of conditional Kuznetsov independence, and study its graphoid properties.
Resumo:
Credal networks relax the precise probability requirement of Bayesian networks, enabling a richer representation of uncertainty in the form of closed convex sets of probability measures. The increase in expressiveness comes at the expense of higher computational costs. In this paper, we present a new variable elimination algorithm for exactly computing posterior inferences in extensively specified credal networks, which is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm. The algorithm is then turned into a provably good approximation scheme, that is, a procedure that for any input is guaranteed to return a solution not worse than the optimum by a given factor. Remarkably, we show that when the networks have bounded treewidth and bounded number of states per variable the approximation algorithm runs in time polynomial in the input size and in the inverse of the error factor, thus being the first known fully polynomial-time approximation scheme for inference in credal networks.
Resumo:
We examine the representation of judgements of stochastic independence in probabilistic logics. We focus on a relational logic where (i) judgements of stochastic independence are encoded by directed acyclic graphs, and (ii) probabilistic assessments are flexible in the sense that they are not required to specify a single probability measure. We discuss issues of knowledge representation and inference that arise from our particular combination of graphs, stochastic independence, logical formulas and probabilistic assessments.
Resumo:
A credal network associates a directed acyclic graph with a collection of sets of probability measures; it offers a compact representation for sets of multivariate distributions. In this paper we present a new algorithm for inference in credal networks based on an integer programming reformulation. We are concerned with computation of lower/upper probabilities for a variable in a given credal network. Experiments reported in this paper indicate that this new algorithm has better performance than existing ones for some important classes of networks.
Resumo:
A credal network is a graphical tool for representation and manipulation of uncertainty, where probability values may be imprecise or indeterminate. A credal network associates a directed acyclic graph with a collection of sets of probability measures; in this context, inference is the computation of tight lower and upper bounds for conditional probabilities. In this paper we present new algorithms for inference in credal networks based on multilinear programming techniques. Experiments indicate that these new algorithms have better performance than existing ones, in the sense that they can produce more accurate results in larger networks.
Resumo:
This article focuses on the issue of Northern Ireland's representation at Westminster. It investigates the political context of the decision to increase Northern Ireland's representation in the house of commons at Westminster from 12 members to 17 in 1978-9. Exploring this episode in more detail, it is argued, provides a more informed overall understanding of the history of devolution in the UK and of the way issues concerning Northern Ireland often overlapped with questions of constitutional change in Scotland and Wales. The article also throws light on the matter of Northern Ireland MPs and their voting rights at Westminster during Northern Ireland's experience of devolution prior to 1972.
Resumo:
The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.
Resumo:
Funded by the Economic and Social Research Council this partnership project between the Childhood, Transition and Social Justice Initiative at Queen’s University and Include Youth focuses on the negative stereotyping of children and young people and the role and responsibilities of the media in the creation and transmission of negative images. Engaging with children, young people, organisations working with children and young people and media representatives, the project uses research evidence to explore negative media representation and its consequences for children’s rights, public reaction and policy initiatives in Northern Ireland. This report represents a summary of the findings of engagement with 141 children and young people. It outlines how they feel they are presented by the media and the impacts of this. It concludes by noting ways forward in challenging negative portrayals.