An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

A new statistical framework for the quantification of covariate associations with species distributions

Identifying processes that shape species geographical ranges is a prerequisite for understanding environmental change. Currently, species distribution modelling methods do not offer credible statistical tests of the relative influence of climate factors and typically ignore other processes (e.g. biotic interactions and dispersal limitation). We use a hierarchical model fitted with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to combine ecologically plausible niche structures using regression splines to describe unimodal but potentially skewed response terms. We apply spatially explicit error terms that account for (and may help identify) missing variables. Using three example distributions of European bird species, we map model results to show sensitivity to change in each covariate. We show that the overall strength of climatic association differs between species and that each species has considerable spatial variation in both the strength of the climatic association and the sensitivity to climate change. Our methods are widely applicable to many species distribution modelling problems and enable accurate assessment of the statistical importance of biotic and abiotic influences on distributions.

Urothelial cancer gene regulatory networks inferred from large-scale RNAseq, Bead and Oligo gene expression data

BACKGROUND: Urothelial pathogenesis is a complex process driven by an underlying network of interconnected genes. The identification of novel genomic target regions and gene targets that drive urothelial carcinogenesis is crucial in order to improve our current limited understanding of urothelial cancer (UC) on the molecular level. The inference of genome-wide gene regulatory networks (GRN) from large-scale gene expression data provides a promising approach for a detailed investigation of the underlying network structure associated to urothelial carcinogenesis.

METHODS: In our study we inferred and compared three GRNs by the application of the BC3Net inference algorithm to large-scale transitional cell carcinoma gene expression data sets from Illumina RNAseq (179 samples), Illumina Bead arrays (165 samples) and Affymetrix Oligo microarrays (188 samples). We investigated the structural and functional properties of GRNs for the identification of molecular targets associated to urothelial cancer.

RESULTS: We found that the urothelial cancer (UC) GRNs show a significant enrichment of subnetworks that are associated with known cancer hallmarks including cell cycle, immune response, signaling, differentiation and translation. Interestingly, the most prominent subnetworks of co-located genes were found on chromosome regions 5q31.3 (RNAseq), 8q24.3 (Oligo) and 1q23.3 (Bead), which all represent known genomic regions frequently deregulated or aberated in urothelial cancer and other cancer types. Furthermore, the identified hub genes of the individual GRNs, e.g., HID1/DMC1 (tumor development), RNF17/TDRD4 (cancer antigen) and CYP4A11 (angiogenesis/ metastasis) are known cancer associated markers. The GRNs were highly dataset specific on the interaction level between individual genes, but showed large similarities on the biological function level represented by subnetworks. Remarkably, the RNAseq UC GRN showed twice the proportion of significant functional subnetworks. Based on our analysis of inferential and experimental networks the Bead UC GRN showed the lowest performance compared to the RNAseq and Oligo UC GRNs.

CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this is the first study investigating genome-scale UC GRNs. RNAseq based gene expression data is the data platform of choice for a GRN inference. Our study offers new avenues for the identification of novel putative diagnostic targets for subsequent studies in bladder tumors.

Ultrasound entropy may be a new non-invasive measure of pre-clinical vascular damage in young hypertensive patients

Background: The identification of pre-clinical microvascular damage in hypertension by non-invasive techniques has proved frustrating for clinicians. This proof of concept study investigated whether entropy, a novel summary measure for characterizing blood velocity waveforms, is altered in participants with hypertension and may therefore be useful in risk stratification.

Methods: Doppler ultrasound waveforms were obtained from the carotid and retrobulbar circulation in 42 participants with uncomplicated grade 1 hypertension (mean systolic/diastolic blood pressure (BP) 142/92 mmHg), and 26 healthy controls (mean systolic/diastolic BP 116/69 mmHg). Mean wavelet entropy was derived from flow-velocity data and compared with traditional haemodynamic measures of microvascular function, namely the resistive and pulsatility indices.

Results: Entropy, was significantly higher in control participants in the central retinal artery (CRA) (differential mean 0.11 (standard error 0.05 cms(-1)), CI 0.009 to 0.219, p 0.017) and ophthalmic artery (0.12 (0.05), CI 0.004 to 0.215, p 0.04). In comparison, the resistive index (0.12 (0.05), CI 0.005 to 0.226, p 0.029) and pulsatility index (0.96 (0.38), CI 0.19 to 1.72, p 0.015) showed significant differences between groups in the CRA alone. Regression analysis indicated that entropy was significantly influenced by age and systolic blood pressure (r values 0.4-0.6). None of the measures were significantly altered in the larger conduit vessel.

Conclusion: This is the first application of entropy to human blood velocity waveform analysis and shows that this new technique has the ability to discriminate health from early hypertensive disease, thereby promoting the early identification of cardiovascular disease in a young hypertensive population.

Oil and Dependency::The Case of Kazakhstan

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the newly independent oil-rich country of Kazakhstan has become a major recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI). Although international organisations such as the IMF and UNCTAD have claimed that FDI could be considered an engine in the transition from state socialism and as a powerful force for integration of this region into the global economy; this investment also poses significant risks to Kazakhstan. These risks fall into two broad categories: The first category can be broadly described as issues associated with the “resource curse” or the “Dutch Disease”. The term Dutch Disease describes a situation where booming demand in oil exporting countries, due to high oil revenues, leads to shift of an economy’s productive resources from the tradeable sector to the non-tradeable sector. The second category is associated with the over-dependency of oil exporting countries on a relatively small number of large multinational corporations (MNCs). This over-dependency can lead to a situation where licenses and concessions are granted at less favourable conditions than if they were auctioned in an efficient market. Examining the licensing policy of the Kazakhstani Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry, this paper notes that the latter issue of over-dependency has become less of a risk due to deliberate efforts to diversify investment relationships. Notwithstanding this situation there is some evidence that it remains difficult for oil exporting nations such as Kazakhstan to ensure that oil revenues are channelled into sustainable economic development.

Characterisation of Bioresorbable Composite Performance for Validation of New On-Line Process Monitoring Technology

There is an increasing interest in the biomedical field to create implantable medical devices to provide a temporary mechanical function for use inside the human body. In many of these applications bioresorbable polymer composites using PLLA with β-TCP , are increasingly being used due to their biocompatability, biodegradability and mechanical strength.1,3 These medical devices can be manufactured using conventional plastics processing methods such as injection moulding and extrusion, however there is great need to understand and control the process due to a lack of knowledge on the influence of processing on material properties. With the addition of biocompatible additives there is also a requirement to be able to predict the quality and level of dispersion within the polymer matrix. On-line UV-Vis spectroscopy has been shown to monitor the quality of fillers in polymers. This can eliminate time consuming and costly post-process evaluation of additive dispersion. The aim of this work was to identify process and performance relationships of PLLA/β-TCP composites with respect to melt-extrusion conditions. This is part of a wider study into on-line process monitoring of bioresorbable polymers as used in the medical industry.
These results show that final properties of the PLLA/ β-TCP composite are highly influenced by the particle size and loading. UV-Vis spectroscopy can be used on-line to monitor the final product and this can be utilised as a valuable tool for quality control in an application where consistent performance is of paramount importance.

A new microtubule-targeting compound PBOX-15 inhibits T-cell migration via post-translational modifications of tubulin

The ordered, directional migration of T-lymphocytes is a key process during immune surveillance, immune response, and development. A novel series of pyrrolo-1,5-benzoxazepines have been shown to potently induce apoptosis in variety of human chemotherapy resistant cancer cell lines, indicating their potential in the treatment of both solid tumors and tumors derived from the hemopoietic system. Pyrrolobenzoxazepine 4-acetoxy-5-(1-naphtyl)naphtho[2,3-b]pyrrolo[1,2-d][1,4]-oxazepine (PBOX-15) has been shown to depolymerize tubulin in vitro and in the MCF7 breast cancer cell line. We hypothesized that this may suggest a role for this compound in modulating integrin-induced T-cell migration, which is largely dependent on the microtubule dynamics. Experiments were performed using human T lymphoma cell line Hut78 and peripheral blood T-lymphocytes isolated from healthy donors. We observed that human T-lymphocytes exposed to PBOX-15 have severely impaired ability to polarize and migrate in response to the triggering stimulus generated via cross-linking of integrin lymphocyte function associated antigen-1 receptor. Here, we show that PBOX-15 can dramatically impair microtubule network via destabilization of tubulin resulting in complete loss of the motile phenotype of T-cells. We demonstrate that PBOX-15 inhibitory mechanisms involve decreased tubulin polymerization and its post-translational modifications. Novel microtubule-targeting effects of PBOX-15 can possibly open new horizons in the treatment of overactive inflammatory conditions as well as cancer and cancer metastatic spreading.

Molecular pathology of prostate cancer:the key to identifying new biomarkers of disease

Microarray technology has recently accelerated the study of the molecular events involved in prostate cancer, offering the prospect of more precise prognosis and new therapeutic strategies. This review summarises current knowledge of the molecular pathology of prostate cancer. The expression and function of numerous genes have been shown to be altered in prostate cancer. Many of these genes are involved in cell cycle regulation, steroid hormone metabolism or regulation of gene expression. The mechanisms by which androgen independence arises are discussed, including cross-activation, gene amplification and point mutations of the androgen receptor. Analysis of changes in the levels of expression of large numbers of genes during prostate cancer progression have provided a better understanding of the basis of the disease, yielding new molecular markers, such as hepsin, with potential use in diagnosis and prognosis.

Characterization of a reference material for BCR-ABL (M-BCR) mRNA quantitation by real-time amplification assays:towards new standards for gene expression measurements

Monitoring of BCR-ABL transcripts has become established practice in the management of chronic myeloid leukemia. However, nucleic acid amplification techniques are prone to variations which limit the reliability of real-time quantitative PCR (RQ-PCR) for clinical decision making, highlighting the need for standardization of assays and reporting of minimal residual disease (MRD) data. We evaluated a lyophilized preparation of a leukemic cell line (K562) as a potential quality control reagent. This was found to be relatively stable, yielding comparable respective levels of ABL, GUS and BCR-ABL transcripts as determined by RQ-PCR before and after accelerated degradation experiments as well as following 5 years storage at -20 degrees C. Vials of freeze-dried cells were sent at ambient temperature to 22 laboratories on four continents, with RQ-PCR analyses detecting BCR-ABL transcripts at levels comparable to those observed in primary patient samples. Our results suggest that freeze-dried cells can be used as quality control reagents with a range of analytical instrumentations and could enable the development of urgently needed international standards simulating clinically relevant levels of MRD.

Pyrrolo-1,5-benzoxazepines:a new class of apoptotic agents

Some members of a series of novel pyrrolo-1,5-benzoxazepines (PBOXs) potently induce apoptosis in a number of human cancerous cell lines including HL-60 cells and the drug-resistant chronic myelogenous leukaemia cell line, K562. The apoptotic induction seems to be independent of the mitochondrial peripheral-type benzodiazepine receptor (PBR), which binds these PBOXs with high affinity, due to a lack of correlation between their affinities for the receptor and their apoptotic potencies and their high apoptotic activity in PBR-deficient cells. PBOX-6, a potent member of the series, induces a transient activation of c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) in a dose-dependent manner, which correlates with induction of apoptosis. Expression of a cytoplasmic inhibitor of the JNK signal transduction pathway, Jip-1, prevents JNK activity and significantly reduces the extent of apoptosis induced by PBOX-6. This demonstrates the requirement for JNK in the cellular response to this apoptotic agent. In addition, PBOX-6 activates caspase-3-like proteases in K562 and HL-60 cells. The caspase-3 inhibitor, Z-Asp-Glu-Val-Asp-fluoromethylketone (z-DEVD-fmk), blocks caspase-3-like protease activity in both cell types but only prevents PBOX-6-induced apoptosis in HL-60 cells, suggesting that the requirement for caspase-3-like proteases in the apoptotic pathway is dependent on the cell type.

Autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa:a new multi-allelic marker (D3S621) genetically linked to the disease locus (RP4)

We report the characterization of a new eight-allele microsatellite (D3S621) isolated from a human chromosome 3 library. Two-point and multi-locus genetic linkage analysis have shown D3S621 to co-segregate with the previously mapped RP4 (theta m = 0.12, Zm = 4.34) and with other genetic markers on the long arm of the chromosome, including D3S14 (R208) (theta m = 0.00, Zm = 15.10), D3S47 (C17) (theta m = 0.11, Zm = 4.95), Rho (theta m = 0.07, Zm = 1.37), D3S21 (L182) (theta m = 0.07, Zm = 2.40) and D3S19 (U1) (theta m = 0.13, Zm = 2.78). This highly informative marker, with a polymorphic information content of 0.78, should be of considerable value in the extension of linkage data for autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa with respect to locii on the long arm of chromosome 3.

A Conventional Internal Combustion Engine Versus a Range Extended Electric Vehicle Under the Current Regulatory Regime in the United Kingdom

Transport accounts for 22% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United Kingdom and cars are expected tomore than double by 2050. Car manufacturers are continually aiming for a substantially reduced carbonfootprint through improved fuel efficiency and better powertrain performance due to the strict EuropeanUnion emissions standards. However, road tax, not just fuel efficiency, is a key consideration of consumerswhen purchasing a car. While measures have been taken to reduce emissions through stricter standards, infuture, alternative technologies will be used. Electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles and range extended electricvehicles have been identified as some of these future technologies. In this research a virtual test bed of aconventional internal combustion engine and a range extended electric vehicle family saloon car were builtin AVL’s vehicle and powertrain system level simulation tool, CRUISE, to simulate the New EuropeanDrive Cycle and the results were then soft-linked to a techno-economic model to compare the effectivenessof current support mechanisms over the full life cycle of both cars. The key finding indicates that althoughcarbon emissions are substantially reduced, switching is still not financially the best option for either theconsumer or the government in the long run.