Rule Britannia!: British Stock Market Returns, 1825-1870

This article presents a new series of monthly equity returns for the British stock market for the period 1825-1870. In addition to calculating capital appreciation and dividend yields, the article also estimates the effect of survivorship bias on returns. Three notable findings emerge from this study. First, stock market returns in the 1825-1870 period are broadly similar for Britain and the United States, although the British market is less risky. Second, real returns in the 1825-1870 period are higher than in subsequent epochs of British history. Third, unlike the modern era, dividends are the most important component of returns.

The rate of return on equity across industrial sectors on the British stock market, 1825-70

This article assesses the contribution of the various industrial sectors to the growth of the British equity market in the 1825–70 period. It also provides estimates of the rates of return on these industrial sectors in this period. The article then proceeds to examine whether differences in rates of return across the various sectors can be explained by risk or other financial factors. One of the main findings is that the relatively high rates of return in the banking, insurance, and miscellaneous sectors appear to be in some measure explained by the presence of extended liability and uncalled capital.

Spatial Mobility Intentions, the Labour Market and Incapacity Benefit Claimants Evidence from Northern Ireland

The paper analyses the work-related spatial mobility intentions of incapacity benefit (IB) claimants in Northern Ireland using a new survey dataset. Greater understanding of the prospective mobility of benefit claimants contributes to debates about employability, inclusion in the labour market and arguments about spatial mismatch. The analysis finds that IB claimants are not markedly less mobile than other population groups; that mobility is shaped by age, level of qualification, illness type, ability to drive and motivation; and that geography is important in several ways. The paper concludes by arguing that limited spatial mobility is a good indicator of disadvantage and that spatial mobility should be placed nearer the centre of the design and delivery of labour market policy

The character and denomination of shares in the Victorian equity market

The seminal work of J. B. Jefferys highlighted two unusual features of the Victorian equity market, namely high share denomination and uncalled capital. This article examines the extent to which publicly traded company stocks in the nineteenth century had these features. It also analyses the effect of these features on stock returns using monthly data for the London Stock Market over the period 1825–70. We find that stocks with unpaid capital earned a higher return, which is consistent with investors being rewarded for the risk of a call on their personal assets. We also find that stocks with a high share denomination earned a lower return, which is consistent with the view that this feature was conducive to superior corporate governance.

Spatial segregation and labour market processes in Belfast

This article examines the nature of labour market exclusion in Belfast and policy responses to the dilemmas of ethnic space. It highlights the value of an area-based approach to understanding the way in which social and ethno-sectarian segregation mediates access to production sites and job opportunities in the wider urban economy. Research from the Belfast metropolitan labour market is used to identify the importance of employment in neutral areas, which can stimulate access from ethnically and socially polarised communities. The article argues for a spatial approach to understanding the structuring of labour market opportunities and constraints and it concludes by highlighting the implications for policy and practice in ethnically territorialised spaces.

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.