Trading off dietary choices, physical exercise and cardiovascular disease risks

Despite several decades of decline, cardiovascular diseases are still the most common causes of death in Western societies. Sedentary living and high fat diets contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases. This paper analyses the trade-offs between lifestyle choices defined in terms of diet, physical activity, cost, and risk of cardiovascular disease that a representative sample of the population of Northern Ireland aged 40-65 are willing to make. Using computer assisted personal interviews, we survey 493 individuals at their homes using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) questionnaire administered between February and July 2011 in Northern Ireland. Unlike most DCE studies for valuing public health programs, this questionnaire uses a tailored exercise, based on the individuals’ baseline choices. A “fat screener” module in the questionnaire links personal cardiovascular disease risk to each specific choice set in terms of dietary constituents. Individuals are informed about their real status quo risk of a fatal cardiovascular event, based on an initial set of health questions. Thus, actual risks, real diet and exercise choices are the elements that constitute the choice task. Our results show that our respondents are willing to pay for reducing mortality risk and, more importantly, are willing to change physical exercise and dietary behaviours. In particular, we find that to improve their lifestyles, overweight and obese people would be more likely to do more physical activity than to change their diets. Therefore, public policies aimed to target obesity and its related illnesses in Northern Ireland should invest public money in promoting physical activity rather than healthier diets.

Economies of scaling: More evidence that allometry of metabolism is linked to activity, metabolic rate and habitat

Organismal metabolic rates influence many ecological processes, and the mass-specific metabolic rate of organisms decreases with increasing body mass according to a power law. The exponent in this equation is commonly thought to be the three-quarter-power of body mass, determined by fundamental physical laws that extend across taxa. However, recent work has cast doubt as to the universality of this relationship, the value of 0.75 being an interspecies 'average' of scaling exponents that vary naturally between certain boundaries. There is growing evidence that metabolic scaling varies significantly between even closely related species, and that different values can be associated with lifestyle, activity and metabolic rates. Here we show that the value of the metabolic scaling exponent varies within a group of marine ectotherms, chitons (Mollusca: Polyplacophora: Mopaliidae), and that differences in the scaling relationship may be linked to species-specific adaptations to different but overlapping microhabitats. Oxygen consumption rates of six closely related, co-occurring chiton species from the eastern Pacific (Vancouver Island, British Columbia) were examined under controlled experimental conditions. Results show that the scaling exponent varies between species (between 0.64 and 0.91). Different activity levels, metabolic rates and lifestyle may explain this variation. The interspecific scaling exponent in these data is not significantly different from the archetypal 0.75 value, even though five out of six species-specific values are significantly different from that value. Our data suggest that studies using commonly accepted values such as 0.75 derived from theoretical models to extrapolate metabolic data of species to population or community levels should consider the likely variation in exponents that exists in the real world, or seek to encompass such error in their models. This study, as in numerous previous ones, demonstrates that scaling exponents show large, naturally occurring variation, and provides more evidence against the existence of a universal scaling law. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

A lesson in business: cost-effectiveness analysis of a novel financial incentive intervention for increasing physical activity in the workplace

Background: Recently both the UK and US governments have advocated the use of financial incentives to encourage healthier lifestyle choices but evidence for the cost-effectiveness of such interventions is lacking. Our aim was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of a quasi-experimental trial, exploring the use of financial incentives to increase employee physical activity levels, from a healthcare and employer’s perspective.

Methods: Employees used a ‘loyalty card’ to objectively monitor their physical activity at work over 12 weeks. The Incentive Group (n=199) collected points and received rewards for minutes of physical activity completed. The No Incentive Group (n=207) self-monitored their physical activity only. Quality of life (QOL) and absenteeism were assessed at baseline and 6 months follow-up. QOL scores were also converted into productivity estimates using a validated algorithm. The additional costs of the Incentive Group were divided by the additional quality adjusted life years (QALYs) or productivity gained to calculate incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) and population expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was used to characterize and value the uncertainty in our estimates.

Results: The Incentive Group performed more physical activity over 12 weeks and by 6 months had achieved greater gains in QOL and productivity, although these mean differences were not statistically significant. The ICERs were £2,900/QALY and £2,700 per percentage increase in overall employee productivity. Whilst the confidence intervals surrounding these ICERs were wide, CEACs showed a high chance of the intervention being cost-effective at low willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds.

Conclusions: The Physical Activity Loyalty card (PAL) scheme is potentially cost-effective from both a healthcare and employer’s perspective but further research is warranted to reduce uncertainty in our results. It is based on a sustainable “business model” which should become more cost-effective as it is delivered to more participants and can be adapted to suit other health behaviors and settings. This comes at a time when both UK and US governments are encouraging business involvement in tackling public health challenges.

Health status and 6 years survival of 552 90+ Italian sib-ships recruited within the EU Project GEHA (GEnetics of Healthy Ageing).

In a scenario of increasing life expectancy worldwide, it is mandatory to identify the characteristics of a healthy aging phenotype, including survival predictors, and to disentangle those related to environment/lifestyle versus those related to familiarity/genetics. To this aim we comprehensively characterised a cohort of 1,160 Italian subjects of 90 years and over (90+, mean age 93 years; age range 90-106 years) followed for 6 years survival, belonging to 552 sib-ships (familiar longevity) recruited (2005-2008) within the EU-funded GEHA project in three Italian geographic areas (Northern, Central and Southern Italy) different for urban/rural and socio-economical characteristics. On the whole, the following factors emerged as significant predictors of survival after 90 years of age: absence of cognitive impairment and physical disability, high hand grip strength scores and body mass index (BMI) values, "excellent/good" self-reported health, high haemoglobin and total cholesterol levels and low creatinine levels. These parameters, excluding BMI values, were also significantly associated within sib-ships, suggesting a strong familial/genetic component. Geographical micro-heterogeneity of survival predictors emerged, such as functional and physical status being more important in Southern than in Central and Northern Italy. In conclusion, we identified modifiable survival predictors related to specific domains, whose role and importance vary according to the geographic area considered and which can help in interpreting the genetic results obtained by the GEHA project, whose major aim is the comprehensive evaluation of phenotypic and genetic data.

Effect of diet on vascular health

Summary Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the Western world in older people. Diet and lifestyle change can reduce CVD risk in older people, and this evidence base is reviewed. For example, diets low in trans fats can reduce CVD risk, while for saturated fats the CVD-lowering effect depends on what is substituted for the saturated fat. Diets rich in fish reduce CVD risk, although n-3 supplements have not been shown to have a consistent effect on CVD end-points. Antioxidant and B-group vitamin supplementation are unlikely to reduce CVD risk, but diets rich in these micronutrients (e.g. rich in fruits and vegetables and the Mediterranean diet) are associated with lower CVD risk, while, for the Mediterranean diet, this has been supported by randomized controlled trials. Maintaining a healthy weight and being physically active reduce CVD risk factors and CVD incidence and mortality. © 2013 Cambridge University Press.

Association of physical activity with future mental health in older, mid-life and younger women

Background: Mental ill-health, particularly depression and anxiety, is a leading and increasing cause of disability worldwide, especially for women.

Methods: We examined the prospective association between physical activity and symptoms of mental ill-health in younger, mid-life and older working women. Participants were 26 913 women from the ongoing cohort Finnish Public Sector Study with complete data at two phases, excluding those who screened positive for mental ill-health at baseline. Mental health was assessed using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire. Self-reported physical activity was expressed in metabolic equivalent task (MET) hours per week. Logistic regression models were used to analyse associations between physical activity levels and subsequent mental health.

Results: There was an inverse dose–response relationship between physical activity and future symptoms of mental ill-health. This association is consistent with a protective effect of physical activity and remained after adjustments for socio-demographic, work-related and lifestyle factors, health and body mass index. Furthermore, those mid-life and older women who reported increased physical activity by more than 2 MET hours per week demonstrated a reduced risk of later mental ill-health in comparison with those who did not increase physical activity. This protective effect of increased physical activity did not hold for younger women.

Conclusions: This study adds to the evidence for the protective effect of physical activity for later mental health in women. It also suggests that increasing physical activity levels may be beneficial in terms of mental health among mid-life and older women. The alleviation of menopausal symptoms may partly explain age effects but further research is required.

The influence of market deregulation on fast food consumption and body mass index:A cross-national time series analysis

Objective
To investigate the effect of fast food consumption on mean population body mass index (BMI) and explore the possible influence of market deregulation on fast food consumption and BMI.

Methods
The within-country association between fast food consumption and BMI in 25 high-income member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development between 1999 and 2008 was explored through multivariate panel regression models, after adjustment for per capita gross domestic product, urbanization, trade openness, lifestyle indicators and other covariates. The possible mediating effect of annual per capita intake of soft drinks, animal fats and total calories on the association between fast food consumption and BMI was also analysed. Two-stage least squares regression models were conducted, using economic freedom as an instrumental variable, to study the causal effect of fast food consumption on BMI.

Findings
After adjustment for covariates, each 1-unit increase in annual fast food transactions per capita was associated with an increase of 0.033 kg/m2 in age-standardized BMI (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.013–0.052). Only the intake of soft drinks – not animal fat or total calories – mediated the observed association (β: 0.030; 95% CI: 0.010–0.050). Economic freedom was an independent predictor of fast food consumption (β: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.16–0.37). When economic freedom was used as an instrumental variable, the association between fast food and BMI weakened but remained significant (β: 0.023; 95% CI: 0.001–0.045).

Conclusion
Fast food consumption is an independent predictor of mean BMI in high-income countries. Market deregulation policies may contribute to the obesity epidemic by facilitating the spread of fast food.

Forecasting Death Rates Using Exogenous Determinants

Mortality models used for forecasting are predominantly based on the statistical properties of time series and do not generally incorporate an understanding of the forces driving secular trends. This paper addresses three research questions: Can the factors found in stochastic mortality-forecasting models be associated with real-world trends in health-related variables? Does inclusion of health-related factors in models improve forecasts? Do resulting models give better forecasts than existing stochastic mortality models? We consider whether the space spanned by the latent factor structure in mortality data can be adequately described by developments in gross domestic product, health expenditure and lifestyle-related risk factors using statistical techniques developed in macroeconomics and finance. These covariates are then shown to improve forecasts when incorporated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Results are comparable or better than benchmark stochastic mortality models.

A Posteriori Dietary Patterns Are Related to Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Findings from a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Our review and meta-analysis examined the association between a posteriori–derived dietary patterns (DPs) and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for articles published up to July 2012 and data were extracted by two independent reviewers. Overall, 19 cross-sectional, 12 prospective cohort, and two nested case-control studies were eligible for inclusion. Results from cross-sectional studies reported an inconsistent association between DPs and measures of insulin resistance and/or glucose abnormalities, or prevalence of type 2 diabetes. A meta-analysis was carried out on nine prospective cohort studies that had examined DPs derived by principle component/factor analysis and incidence of type 2 diabetes risk (totaling 309,430 participants and 16,644 incident cases). Multivariate-adjusted odds ratios were combined using a random-effects meta-analysis. Two broad DPs (Healthy/Prudent and Unhealthy/Western) were identified based on food factor loadings published in original studies. Pooled results indicated a 15% lower type 2 diabetes risk for those in the highest category of Healthy/Prudent pattern compared with those in the lowest category (95% CI 0.80 to 0.91; P<0.0001). Compared with the lowest category of Unhealthy/Western DP, those in the highest category had a 41% increased risk of type 2 diabetes (95% CI 1.32 to 1.52; P<0.0001). These results provide evidence that DPs are consistently associated with risk of type 2 diabetes even when other lifestyle factors are controlled for. Thus, greater adherence to a DP characterized by high intakes of fruit, vegetables, and complex carbohydrate and low intakes of refined carbohydrate, processed meat, and fried food may be one strategy that could have a positive influence on the global public health burden of type 2 diabetes.

The effect of multiple chronic conditions on self-rated health, disability and quality of life among the older populations of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland: a comparison of two nationally representative cross-sectional surveys

Objectives: Multimorbidity is common in the older population, but the impact of combinations of chronic conditions on disability and quality of life (QoL) is not well known. This analysis explores the effect of specific combinations of chronic diseases on disability, QoL and self-rated health (SRH).

Design: We used data from two population representative cross-sectional studies, the Northern Ireland Health and Social Wellbeing Survey (NIHSWS) 2005 and the Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition (SLAN) 2007 (conducted in the Republic of Ireland).

Setting: Randomly selected community-living participants were interviewed at home.

Participants: A total of 6159 participants aged 50 years and older were included in the analysis.

Outcome measures: Chronic conditions were classified as cardiovascular disease, chronic pain,diabetes or respiratory disease. Interaction terms estimated by logistic regression were used to examine the effects of multiple chronic conditions on disability, SRH and QoL.

Results: Each chronic condition group was correlated with each of the others after adjusting for sociodemographic factors. Those from Northern Ireland were more likely to report a limitation in daily activities (45%) compared to those from the Republic of Ireland (21%). Each condition had an independent effect on disability, SRH and QoL, and those with multiple chronic conditions reported the worst outcomes. However, there were no statistically significant positive interactions between chronic condition groups with respect to any outcome.

Conclusions: Chronic conditions affect individuals largely independent of each other with respect to their effect on disability, SRH and QoL. However, a significant proportion of the population aged 50 years and over across the island of Ireland lives with multimorbidity,and this group is at the highest risk of disability, poor SRH and poor QoL.

Unravelling the migration decision-making process: English early retirees moving to rural mid-Wales

There are established migrant reasons to explain rural in-migration. These include quality of life, rural idyll and lifestyle motivations. However, such one-dimensional sound bites portray rural in-migration in overly simplistic and stereotypical terms. In contrast, this paper distinguishes the decision to move from the reason for moving and in doing so sheds new light on the interconnections between different domains (family, work, finance, health) of the migrant's life which contribute to migration behaviour. Focussing on early retirees to mid-Wales and adopting a life course perspective the overall decision to move is disaggregated into a series of decisions. Giving voices to the migrants themselves demonstrates the combination of life events necessary to lead to migration behaviour, the variable factors (and often economic dominance) considered in the choice of destination (including that many are reluctant migrants to Wales), and the perceived 'accidental' choice of location and/or property. It is argued that quality of life, rural idyll and lifestyle sound bites offer an inadequate understanding of rural in-migration and associated decision-making processes. Moreover, they disguise the true nature of migrant decision making.

Open Data: European Ambitions and Local Efforts. Experiences from Austria

The member states of the European Union are faced with the challenges of handling “big data” as well as with a growing impact of the supranational level. Given that the success of efforts at European level strongly depends on corresponding national and local activities, i.e., the quality of implementation and the degree of consistency, this chapter centers upon the coherence of European strategies and national implementations concerning the reuse of public sector information. Taking the City of Vienna’s open data activities as an illustrative example, we seek an answer to the question whether and to what extent developments at European level and other factors have an effect on local efforts towards open data. We find that the European Commission’s ambitions are driven by a strong economic argumentation, while the efforts of the City of Vienna have only very little to do with the European orientation and are rather dominated by lifestyle and administrative reform arguments. Hence, we observe a decoupling of supranational strategies and national implementation activities. The very reluctant attitude at Austrian federal level might be one reason for this, nationally induced barriers—such as the administrative culture—might be another. In order to enhance the correspondence between the strategies of the supranational level and those of the implementers at national and regional levels, the strengthening of soft law measures could be promising.

Mediterranean diet interventions to prevent cognitive decline-opportunities and challenges

Cognitive decline has a profound impact on the health and quality of life of older people and their caregivers. Exploring mechanisms to delay cognitive decline has become an urgent economic priority, given the projected changes in population demographics. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies suggest that adherence to a Mediterranean Diet (MD) is associated with reduced cognitive decline, but such an observation needs to be tested in randomised controlled trials. Intervention evidence is currently limited, and future studies need to be adequately powered, with careful attention given to choice of participants, outcomes being assessed, study duration and strategies to achieve compliance. Alongside these studies, consideration has to be given to how best promote and encourage dietary change in older people in general, and particularly in those experiencing the early stages of cognitive decline, as there may be specific factors that need to be considered when designing lifestyle behaviour change interventions in this group.

The DietCompLyf study: A prospective cohort study of breast cancer survival and phytoestrogen consumption

DietCompLyf is a multi-centre prospective study designed to investigate associations between phytoestrogens - naturally occurring plant compounds with oestrogenic properties - and other diet and lifestyle factors with breast cancer recurrence and survival. 3159 women with grades I-III breast cancer were recruited 9-15 months post-diagnosis from 56 UK hospitals. Detailed information on clinico-pathological, diet, lifestyle and quality of life is collected annually up to 5 years. Biological samples have also been collected as a resource for subsequent evaluation. The characteristics of the patients and associations between pre-diagnosis intake of phytoestrogens (isoflavones and lignans; assessed using the EPIC-Norfolk UK 130 question food frequency questionnaire) and breast cancer (i) risk factors and (ii) prognostic factors are described for 1797 women who had complete data for all covariates and phytoestrogens of interest. Isoflavone intakes were higher in the patients who were younger at diagnosis, in the non-smokers, those who had breast-fed and those who took supplements. Lignan intakes were higher in patients with a higher age at diagnosis, in ex-smokers, those who had breast-fed, who took supplements, had a lower BMI at diagnosis, lower age at menarche and were nulliparous. No significant associations between pre-diagnosis phytoestrogen intake and factors associated with improved breast cancer prognosis were observed. The potential for further exploration of the relationship between phytoestrogens and breast cancer recurrence and survival, and for the establishment of evidence to improve dietary and lifestyle advice offered to patients following breast cancer diagnosis using DietCompLyf data is discussed.