An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

Development and Application of Medication Appropriateness Indicators for Persons with Advanced Dementia: A Feasibility Study

Background: No studies have been conducted in the UK context to date that categorise medications in terms of appropriateness for patients with advanced dementia, or that examine medication use in these vulnerable patients.

Objectives: The objectives of this study were to categorise the appropriateness of a comprehensive list of medications and medication classes for use in patients with advanced dementia; examine the feasibility of conducting a longitudinal prospective cohort study to collect clinical and medication use data; and determine the appropriateness of prescribing for nursing home residents with advanced dementia in Northern Ireland (NI), using the categories developed.

Methods: A three-round Delphi consensus panel survey of expert clinicians was used to categorise the appropriateness of medications for patients with advanced dementia [defined as having Functional Assessment Staging (FAST) scores ranging from 6E to 7F]. This was followed by a longitudinal prospective cohort feasibility study that was conducted in three nursing homes in NI. Clinical and medication use for participating residents with advanced dementia (FAST scores ranging from 6E to 7F) were collected and a short test of dementia severity administered. These data were collected at baseline and every 3 months for up to 9 months or until death. For those residents who died during the study period, data were also collected within 14 days of death. The appropriateness ratings from the consensus panel survey were retrospectively applied to residents’ medication data at each data collection timepoint to determine the appropriateness of medications prescribed for these residents.

Results: Consensus was achieved for 87 (90 %) of the 97 medications and medication classes included in the survey. Fifteen residents were recruited to participate in the longitudinal prospective cohort feasibility study, four of whom died during the data collection period. Mean numbers of medications prescribed per resident were 16.2 at baseline, 19.6 at 3 months, 17.4 at 6 months and 16.1 at 9 months. Fourteen residents at baseline were taking at least one medication considered by the consensus panel to be never appropriate, and approximately 25 % of medications prescribed were considered to be never appropriate. Post-death data collection indicated a decrease in the proportion of never appropriate medications and an increase in the proportion of always appropriate medications for those residents who died.

Conclusions: This study is the first to develop and apply medication appropriateness indicators for patients with advanced dementia in the UK setting. The Delphi consensus panel survey of expert clinicians was a suitable method of developing such indicators. It is feasible to collect information on quality of life, functional performance, physical comfort, neuropsychiatric symptoms and cognitive function for this subpopulation of nursing home residents with advanced dementia.

Primary care organisational interventions for secondary prevention of IHD: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is the most common cause of death worldwide.

Aim: To determine the long-term impact of organisational interventions for secondary prevention of IHD.

Design and setting: Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies from CENTRAL, MEDLINE®, Embase, and CINAHL published January 2007 to January 2013.

Method: Searches were conducted for randomised controlled trials of patients with established IHD, with long-term follow-up, of cardiac secondary prevention programmes targeting organisational change in primary care or community settings. A random-effects model was used and risk ratios were calculated.

Results: Five studies were included with 4005 participants. Meta-analysis of four studies with mortality data at 4.7–6 years showed that organisational interventions were associated with approximately 20% reduced mortality, with a risk ratio (RR) for all-cause mortality of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66 to 0.93), and a RR for cardiac-related mortality of 0.74 (95% CI = 0.58 to 0.94). Two studies reported mortality data at 10 years. Analysis of these data showed no significant differences between groups. There were insufficient data to conduct a meta-analysis on the effect of interventions on hospital admissions. Additional analyses showed no significant association between organisational interventions and risk factor management or appropriate prescribing at 4.7–6 years.

Conclusion: Cardiac secondary prevention programmes targeting organisational change are associated with a reduced risk of death for at least 4–6 years. There is insufficient evidence to conclude whether this beneficial effect is maintained indefinitely.

Death and Consumer Culture

Among the most veiled and emotionally charged of life’s experiences are those related to death. Given that poetry has long been recognized as an unparalleled means of expressing and understanding the most complex and emotional aspects of life (Sherry and Schouten, 2002), it is of little surprise that few poets regarded as the finest of all wordsmiths have not, since time immemorial, grappled with death.

Recently, within marketing and consumer research, poetry has slowly but progressively come to be recognized as a means by which to understand, express, celebrate, and/or confront that which defies scientific or other more “scholarly” explanation (Canniford, 2012; Wijland, 2011; Sherry and Schouten, 2002). This “poetic turn” has manifest itself most notably within the nascent realm of Consumer Culture Theory (CCT); mainly in poetry reading sessions held—with published chapbooks in hand—in concurrence with the annual CCT symposium. Death-related poetry penned by marketing and consumer researchers has there entered—albeit randomly—the CCT circuit (see, for example: Arnould, 2014; Steinfield, 2014; Gabel, 2013, 2010; Downey, 2011, 2010a, 2010b, 2010c).

This chapter represents the first formal, organized attempt to better understand death-related consumption experience and meaning via the creation and dissemination of original works of poetry. The chapter’s title reflects the broad, eclectic perspective of death and consumption herein pursued. We consider funerary and other—good, service, and ideological—product consumption activities and experiences transpiring in the context of death. We also embrace the notion that death often brutally consumes those dealing with it; a sort of “consumption of consumers by death.” In turn, as vividly expressed in several of the poems in this chapter, consumption acts or experiences and/or memories thereof may be instrumental in coping with “being consumed by death.”

RIP kinases: key decision makers in cell death and innate immunity

Innate immunity represents the first line of defence against invading pathogens. It consists of an initial inflammatory response that recruits white blood cells to the site of infection in an effort to destroy and eliminate the pathogen. Some pathogens replicate within host cells, and cell death by apoptosis is an important effector mechanism to remove the replication niche for such microbes. However, some microbes have evolved evasive strategies to block apoptosis, and in these cases host cells may employ further countermeasures, including an inflammatory form of cell death know as necroptosis. This review aims to highlight the importance of the RIP kinase family in controlling these various defence strategies. RIP1 is initially discussed as a key component of death receptor signalling and in the context of dictating whether a cell triggers a pathway of pro-inflammatory gene expression or cell death by apoptosis. The molecular and functional interplay of RIP1 and RIP3 is described, especially with respect to mediating necroptosis and as key mediators of inflammation. The function of RIP2, with particular emphasis on its role in NOD signalling, is also explored. Special attention is given to emphasizing the physiological and pathophysiological contexts for these various functions of RIP kinases.

The Effect of Community-Based Specialist Palliative Care Teams on Place of Care

BACKGROUND: Prior research on community-based specialist palliative care teams used outcome measures of place of death and/or dichotomous outcome measures of acute care use in the last two weeks of life. However, existing research seldom measured the diverse places of care used and their timing prior to death.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to examine the place of care in the last 30 days of life.

METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, patients who received care from a specialist palliative care team (exposed) were matched by propensity score to patients who received usual care in the community (unexposed) in Ontario, Canada. Measured was the percentage of patients in each place of care in the last month of life as a proportion of the total cohort.

RESULTS: After matching, 3109 patients were identified in each group, where 79% had cancer and 77% received end-of-life home care. At 30 days compared to 7 days before death, the exposed group's proportions rose from 33% to 41% receiving home care and 14% to 15% in hospital, whereas the unexposed group's proportions rose from 28% to 32% receiving home care and 16% to 22% in hospital. Linear trend analysis (proportion over time) showed that the exposed group used significantly more home care services and fewer hospital days (p < 0.001) than the unexposed group. On the last day of life (place of death), the exposed group had 18% die in an in-patient hospital bed compared to 29% in usual care.

CONCLUSION: Examining place of care in the last month can effectively illustrate the service use trajectory over time.

Improving a regional chemotherapy service by learning from deaths occurring within 30 days of treatment with systemic anti-cancer therapy.

Background: Outwith clinical trials, patient outcomes specifically related to SACT (systemic anti-cancer therapy) are not well reported despite a significant proportion of patients receiving active treatment at the end of life. The NCEPOD reviewing deaths within 30 days of SACT found SACT caused or hastened death in 27% of cases.

Method: Across the Northern Ireland cancer network, 95 patients who died within 30 days of SACT for solid tumours were discussed at the Morbidity and Mortality monthly meeting during 2013. Using a structured template, each case was independently reviewed, with particular focus on whether SACT caused or hastened death.

Results: Lung, GI and breast cancers were the most common sites. Performance status was recorded in 92% at time of final SACT cycle (ECOG PS 0-2 89%).

In 57% the cause of death was progressive disease. Other causes included thromboembolism (13%) and infection (5% neutropenic sepsis, 6% non-neutropenic sepsis). In 26% with death from progressive disease, the patient was first cycle of first line treatment for metastatic disease. In the majority discussion regarding treatment aims and risks was documented. Only one patient was receiving SACT with curative intent, who died from appropriately managed neutropenic sepsis.

A definitive decision regarding SACT's role in death was made in 60%: in 49% SACT was deemed non-contributory and in 11% SACT was deemed the cause of death. In 40% SACT did not play a major role, but a definitive negative association could not be made.

Conclusion: Development of a robust review process of 30-day mortality after SACT established a benchmark for SACT delivery for future comparisons and identified areas for SACT service organisation improvement. Moreover it encourages individual practice reflection and highlights the importance of balancing patients' needs and concerns with realistic outcomes and risks, particularly in heavily pre-treated patients or those of poor performance status.

Six-year follow-up of the SPHERE RCT: secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice.

Objective: To determine the long-term effectiveness of a complex intervention in primary care aimed at improving outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease.

Design: A 6-year follow-up of a cluster randomised controlled trial, which found after 18 months that both total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were significantly reduced in intervention practices (8% absolute reduction).

Setting: 48 general practices in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Participants: 903 patients with established coronary heart disease at baseline in the original trial.

Intervention: The original intervention consisted of tailored practice and patient plans; training sessions for practitioners in medication prescribing and behavioural change; and regular patient recall system. Control practices provided usual care. Following the intervention period, all supports from the research team to intervention practices ceased.

Outcome measures: Primary outcome: hospital admissions, all cause and cardiovascular; secondary outcomes: mortality; blood pressure and cholesterol control.

Results: At 6-year follow-up, data were collected from practice records of 696 patients (77%). For those who had died, we censored their data at the point of death and cause of death was established. There were no significant differences between the intervention and control practices in either total (OR 0.83 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.28)) or cardiovascular hospital admissions (OR 0.91 (95% CI 0.49 to 1.65)). We confirmed mortality status of 886 of the original 903 patients (98%). There were no significant differences in mortality (15% in intervention and 16% in control) or in the proportions of patients above target control for systolic blood pressure or total cholesterol.

Conclusions: Initial significant differences in the numbers of total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were not maintained at 6 years and no differences were found in mortality or blood pressure and cholesterol control. Policymakers need to continue to assess the effectiveness of previously efficacious programmes.

Trial registration number: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24081411.

Change in psychological distress in longer-term oesophageal cancer carers: are clusters of illness perception change a useful determinant?

Objective: This study provides a longitudinal assessment of distress in longer-term oesophageal cancer carers, while examining illness perception schema as a possible determinant of change in distress over time.
Methods: Oesophageal cancer carers (n=171), 48-months post-diagnosis, were assessed at baseline and 12-months later with the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised, Cancer Coping Questionnaire, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and Concerns About Recurrence Scale.
Results: Findings report deterioration from normal to probable anxiety in 35.7% of carers and probable depression in 28.7% carers over time. Fear of recurrence remained stable. Changes in control, consequence and cause beliefs were identified as key determinants of a change in psychological morbidity.
Conclusions: Illness beliefs appear to be valuable targets for psychological intervention to improve wellbeing among carers of people with oesophageal cancer.

Sexual Abuse in Malawi: Patterns of Disclosure

Potential human immunodeficiency virus transmission makes prompt disclosure of child sexual abuse in Africa critical. The pattern of disclosure of 133 children presenting to the largest hospital in Malawi were analyzed. Eighty percent presented early enough for effective use of HIV postexposure prophylaxis. Seventy-five percent of children made a disclosure of child sexual abuse; 29% spontaneously and 47% after prompting. Disclosures were most commonly made to a parent, and age did not affect the pattern of disclosure. The number of children reporting child sexual abuse is increasing, possibly because of increasing awareness, availability of services, and fear of HIV. Although prompt disclosure rates were relatively high, facilitating easier disclosure of child sexual abuse by a free telephone help-line and better training of teachers may be helpful. 

Clopidogrel use and cancer-specific mortality: a population-based cohort study of colorectal, breast and prostate cancer patients

PURPOSE: Concerns were raised about the safety of antiplatelet thienopyridine derivatives after a randomized control trial reported increased risks of cancer and cancer deaths in prasugrel users. We investigate whether clopidogrel, a widely used thienopyridine derivative, was associated with increased risk of cancer-specific or all-cause mortality in cancer patients.

METHODS: Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer patients, newly diagnosed from 1998 to 2009, were identified from the National Cancer Data Repository. Cohorts were linked to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, providing prescription records, and to the Office of National Statistics mortality data (up to 2012). Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer-specific and all-cause mortality in post-diagnostic clopidogrel users were calculated using time-dependent Cox regression models.

RESULTS: The analysis included 10 359 colorectal, 17 889 breast and 13 155 prostate cancer patients. There was no evidence of an increase in cancer-specific mortality in clopidogrel users with colorectal (HR = 0.98 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77, 1.24) or prostate cancer (HR = 1.03 95%CI 0.82, 1.28). There was limited evidence of an increase in breast cancer patients (HR = 1.22 95%CI 0.90, 1.65); however, this was attenuated when removing prescriptions in the year prior to death.

CONCLUSIONS: This novel study of large population-based cohorts of colorectal, breast and prostate cancer patients found no evidence of an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality among colorectal, breast and prostate cancer patients using clopidogrel.