Bayesian network data imputation with application to survival tree analysis

Retrospective clinical datasets are often characterized by a relatively small sample size and many missing data. In this case, a common way for handling the missingness consists in discarding from the analysis patients with missing covariates, further reducing the sample size. Alternatively, if the mechanism that generated the missing allows, incomplete data can be imputed on the basis of the observed data, avoiding the reduction of the sample size and allowing methods to deal with complete data later on. Moreover, methodologies for data imputation might depend on the particular purpose and might achieve better results by considering specific characteristics of the domain. The problem of missing data treatment is studied in the context of survival tree analysis for the estimation of a prognostic patient stratification. Survival tree methods usually address this problem by using surrogate splits, that is, splitting rules that use other variables yielding similar results to the original ones. Instead, our methodology consists in modeling the dependencies among the clinical variables with a Bayesian network, which is then used to perform data imputation, thus allowing the survival tree to be applied on the completed dataset. The Bayesian network is directly learned from the incomplete data using a structural expectation–maximization (EM) procedure in which the maximization step is performed with an exact anytime method, so that the only source of approximation is due to the EM formulation itself. On both simulated and real data, our proposed methodology usually outperformed several existing methods for data imputation and the imputation so obtained improved the stratification estimated by the survival tree (especially with respect to using surrogate splits).

A Tree Augmented Classifier Based on Extreme Imprecise Dirichlet Model

In this paper we present TANC, i.e., a tree-augmented naive credal classifier based on imprecise probabilities; it models prior near-ignorance via the Extreme Imprecise Dirichlet Model (EDM) (Cano et al., 2007) and deals conservatively with missing data in the training set, without assuming them to be missing-at-random. The EDM is an approximation of the global Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM), which considerably simplifies the computation of upper and lower probabilities; yet, having been only recently introduced, the quality of the provided approximation needs still to be verified. As first contribution, we extensively compare the output of the naive credal classifier (one of the few cases in which the global IDM can be exactly implemented) when learned with the EDM and the global IDM; the output of the classifier appears to be identical in the vast majority of cases, thus supporting the adoption of the EDM in real classification problems. Then, by experiments we show that TANC is more reliable than the precise TAN (learned with uniform prior), and also that it provides better performance compared to a previous (Zaffalon, 2003) TAN model based on imprecise probabilities. TANC treats missing data by considering all possible completions of the training set, but avoiding an exponential increase of the computational times; eventually, we present some preliminary results with missing data.

NP-hardness of MAP in Ternary Tree Bayesian Networks

This paper strengthens the NP-hardness result for the (partial) maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem in Bayesian networks with topology of trees (every variable has at most one parent) and variable cardinality at most three. MAP is the problem of querying the most probable state configuration of some (not necessarily all) of the network variables given evidence. It is demonstrated that the problem remains hard even in such simplistic networks.

The Shifting Battleground of Article 4(2) TEU: Evolving National Identities and the corresponding need for EU management?

Article 4(2) TEU requires that the European Union (EU) respect the Member States’ national identities, creating a legal obligation enforceable before the CJEU and valuable in political negotiations. However, the concept of national identities is unclear, leaving open questions about the scope or parameters of the provision and its applicability. The CJEU appears likely to take a relatively flexible approach in light of Article 4(2) TEU’s relationship with national constitutional courts’ reserves. This flexible approach would enable Member States to rely upon a range of aspects as part of their national identity, including ones that were previously unidentified. This is a crucial feature if one considers that national identities may evolve gradually or even dramatically, including where Member States purposefully attempt to develop their national identities further. This possibility of an evolved national identity is exemplified by the French Charte de l’Environnement. It may thereby be possible for Member States to stretch the scope and application of Article 4(2) TEU through reference to these evolving national identities. This potential raises significant challenges for the EU regarding the management of Article 4(2) TEU, which it will need to address if it wishes to ensure harmonisation and uniformity in the relevant areas.

Evolving southwest African response to abrupt deglacial North Atlantic climate change events

Climate change during the last deglaciation was strongly influenced by the „bipolar seesaw‟, producing antiphase climate responses between the North and South Atlantic. However, mounting evidence demands refinements of this model, with the occurrence of abrupt events in southern low to mid latitudes occurring in-phase with North Atlantic climate. Improved constraints on the north-south phasing and spatial extent of these events are therefore critical to
understanding the mechanisms that propagate abrupt events within the climate system. We present a 19,400 year multi-proxy record of climate change obtained from a rock hyrax midden in southernmost Africa. Arid anomalies in phase with the Younger Dryas and 8.2 ka events are apparent, indicating a clear shift in the influence of the bipolar seesaw, which diminished as the Earth warmed, and was succeeded after ~14.6 ka by the emergence of a dominant interhemispheric atmospheric teleconnection.

Massive stars exploding in a He-rich circumstellar medium - V. Observations of the slow-evolving SN Ibn OGLE-2012-SN-006

We present optical observations of the peculiar Type Ibn supernova (SN Ibn) OGLE-2012-SN-006, discovered and monitored by the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment-IV survey, and spectroscopically followed by Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects (PESSTO) at late phases. Stringent pre-discovery limits constrain the explosion epoch with fair precision to JD = 245 6203.8 +/- 4.0. The rise time to the I-band light-curve maximum is about two weeks. The object reaches the peak absolute magnitude M-I = -19.65 +/- 0.19 on JD = 245 6218.1 +/- 1.8. After maximum, the light curve declines for about 25 d with a rate of 4 mag (100 d)(-1). The symmetric I-band peak resembles that of canonical Type Ib/c supernovae (SNe), whereas SNe Ibn usually exhibit asymmetric and narrower early-time light curves. Since 25 d past maximum, the light curve flattens with a decline rate slower than that of the Co-56-Fe-56 decay, although at very late phases it steepens to approach that rate. However, other observables suggest that the match with the Co-56 decay rate is a mere coincidence, and the radioactive decay is not the main mechanism powering the light curve of OGLE-2012-SN-006. An early-time spectrum is dominated by a blue continuum, with only a marginal evidence for the presence of He I lines marking this SN type. This spectrum shows broad absorptions bluewards than 5000 angstrom, likely O II lines, which are similar to spectral features observed in superluminous SNe at early epochs. The object has been spectroscopically monitored by PESSTO from 90 to 180 d after peak, and these spectra show the typical features observed in a number of SN 2006jc-like events, including a blue spectral energy distribution and prominent and narrow (v(FWHM) approximate to 1900 km s(-1)) He I emission lines. This suggests that the ejecta are interacting with He-rich circumstellar material. The detection of broad (10(4) km s(-1)) O I and Ca II features likely produced in the SN ejecta (including the [OI] lambda lambda 6300,6364 doublet in the latest spectra) lends support to the interpretation of OGLE-2012-SN-006 as a core-collapse event.

The Robustness of Periodic Orchestrations in Uncertain Evolving Environments

A framework for assessing the robustness of long-duration repetitive orchestrations in uncertain evolving environments is proposed. The model assumes that service-based evaluation environments are stable over short time-frames only; over longer periods service-based environments evolve as demand fluctuates and contention for shared resources varies. The behaviour of a short-duration orchestration E in a stable environment is assessed by an uncertainty profile U and a corresponding zero-sum angel-daemon game Γ(U) [2]. Here the angel-daemon approach is extended to assess evolving environments by means of a subfamily of stochastic games. These games are called strategy oblivious because their transition probabilities are strategy independent. It is shown that the value of a strategy oblivious stochastic game is well defined and that it can be computed by solving a linear system. Finally, the proposed stochastic framework is used to assess the evolution of the Gabrmn IT system.

Evolving national park models: The emergence of an economic imperative and its effect on the contested nature of the 'national' park concept in Northern Ireland.

National park models have evolved in tandem with the emergence of a multifunctional countryside. Sustainable development has been added to the traditional twin aims of conservation and recreation. This is typified by recent national park designations, such as the Cairngorms National Park in Scotland. A proposed Mournes national park in Northern Ireland has evolved a stage further with a model of national park to deliver national economic goals envisaged by government. This seeks to commodify the natural landscape. This paper compares Cairngorm and Mourne stakeholders’ views on the principal features of both models: park aims, management structures and planning functions. While Cairngorm stakeholders were largely positive from the outset, the model of national park introduced is not without criticism. Conversely, Mourne stakeholders have adopted an anti-national park stance. Nevertheless, the model of national park proposed possessing a strong economic imperative, an absence of the Sandford Principle as a means to manage likely conflicts, and lacking any planning powers in its own right, may still be insufficient to bring about widespread support for a Mourne national park. Such a model is also likely to accelerate the degradation of the Mourne landscape. Competing national identities (British and Irish) provide an additional dimension to the national park debate in Northern Ireland. Deep ideological cleavages are capable of derailing the introduction of a national park irrespective of the model proposed. In Northern Ireland the national park debate is not only about reconciling environmental and economic interests but also political and ethno-national differences.

Rapidly Evolving and Luminous Transients from Pan-STARRS1

In the past decade, several rapidly evolving transients have been discovered whose timescales and luminosities are not easily explained by traditional supernovae (SNe) models. The sample size of these objects has remained small due, at least in part, to the challenges of detecting short timescale transients with traditional survey cadences. Here we present the results from a search within the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey (PS1-MDS) for rapidly evolving and luminous transients. We identify 10 new transients with a time above half-maximum (t_1/2) of less than 12 days and -16.5 > M > -20 mag. This increases the number of known events in this region of SN phase space by roughly a factor of three. The median redshift of the PS1-MDS sample is z = 0.275 and they all exploded in star-forming galaxies. In general, the transients possess faster rise than decline timescale and blue colors at maximum light (g_P1-rP1 ≲ -0.2). Best-fit blackbodies reveal photospheric temperatures/radii that expand/cool with time and explosion spectra taken near maximum light are dominated by a blue continuum, consistent with a hot, optically thick, ejecta. We find it difficult to reconcile the short timescale, high peak luminosity (L > 10⁴³erg s^-1), and lack of UV line blanketing observed in many of these transients with an explosion powered mainly by the radioactive decay of ⁵⁶Ni. Rather, we find that many are consistent with either (1) cooling envelope emission from the explosion of a star with a low-mass extended envelope that ejected very little (<0.03 M) radioactive material, or (2) a shock breakout within a dense, optically thick, wind surrounding the progenitor star. After calculating the detection efficiency for objects with rapid timescales in the PS1-MDS we find a volumetric rate of 4800-8000 events yr^-1Gpc^-3(4%-7% of the core-collapse SN rate at z = 0.2).

Local Conventions in Game Play in an Evolving Dual Social Network Framework

People usually perform economic interactions within the social setting of a small group, while they obtain relevant information from a broader source. We capture this feature with a dynamic interaction model based on two separate social networks. Individuals play a coordination game in an interaction network, while updating their strategies using information from a separate influence network through which information is disseminated. In each time period, the interaction and influence networks co-evolve, and the individuals’ strategies are updated through a modified naive learning process. We show that both network structures and players’ strategies always reach a steady state, in which players form fully connected groups and converge to local conventions. We also analyze the influence exerted by a minority group of strongly opinionated players on these outcomes.

Land wars in India: Contestations, social forces and evolving neoliberal urban transformation

Land wars in India: Contestations, social forces and evolving neoliberal urban transformation
The recent incidents of ‘land wars’ in India have highlighted the contradictions and challenges of the neoliberal urban transformation through a range of issues across governance, equity and empowerment in the development agenda. Simply put, a strong top down approach and corporate-political nexus have determined the modality of land acquisition, compensation and ultimately the nature of its consumption leaving out majority urban poor from its benefits. The paper focuses on the concept of neoliberalism as a modality of urban governance and emergence of the grassroots activism as a countermagnate to neoliberalist hegemony by examining the inequity and marginalization that embody these ‘land wars’ in India and the forms of resistance from the grassroots - their capacity, relationship and modus operandi. Emerging lessons suggest the potential for advancing governance from the bottoms up leading to more equitable distribution of resources. It is however argued that there is a need for a stronger conception of the ‘grassroots’ in both epistemological and empirical context. In particular, the preconditions for the ‘grassroots organisations’ to foster and play a more effective role requires a more inclusive notion of ‘institutionality and plurality’ within the current political economic context. The empirical focus of the paper is ‘land wars’ observed in Kolkata, West Bengal, however references to other examples across the country have also been made.

Evolving nature of the AP2 alpha-appendage hub during clathrin-coated vesicle endocytosis

Clathrin-mediated endocytosis involves the assembly of a network of proteins that select cargo, modify membrane shape and drive invagination, vesicle scission and uncoating. This network is initially assembled around adaptor protein (AP) appendage domains, which are protein interaction hubs. Using crystallography, we show that FxDxF and WVxF peptide motifs from synaptojanin bind to distinct subdomains on alpha-appendages, called 'top' and 'side' sites. Appendages use both these sites to interact with their binding partners in vitro and in vivo. Occupation of both sites simultaneously results in high-affinity reversible interactions with lone appendages (e.g. eps15 and epsin1). Proteins with multiple copies of only one type of motif bind multiple appendages and so will aid adaptor clustering. These clustered alpha(appendage)-hubs have altered properties where they can sample many different binding partners, which in turn can interact with each other and indirectly with clathrin. In the final coated vesicle, most appendage binding partners are absent and thus the functional status of the appendage domain as an interaction hub is temporal and transitory giving directionality to vesicle assembly.

Evolving techniques for monitoring geotechnical risk on the Antrim Coast Road.

The interaction between problematic geology and environmental variables along the Antrim Coast Road results in frequent instances of geotechnical instability. During such instances of instability, mudslide debris encroaches on the carriageway posing a hazard to motorists, causing lengthily tailbacks. This paper examines some of the geotechnical and spatial analysis techniques currently being implemented to monitor slope stability on this key transport route.