Quantifying the Energy & carbon emissions implications of a 10% electric vehicles target

EU Directive 2009/28/EC on Renewable Energy requires each Member State to ensure 10% of transport energy (excluding aviation and marine transport) comes from renewable sources by 2020 (10% RES-T target). In addition to the anticipated growth in biofuels, this target is expected to be met by the increased electrification of transport coupled with a growing contribution from renewable energy to electricity generation. Energy use in transport accounted for nearly half of Ireland’s total final energy demand and about a third of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2007. Energy use in transport has grown by 6.3% per annum on average in the period 1990 – 2007. This high share and fast growth relative to other countries highlights the challenges Ireland faces in meeting ambitious renewable energy targets. The Irish Government has set a specific target for Electric Vehicles (EV) as part of its strategy to deliver the 10% RES-T target. By 2020, 10% of all vehicles in its transport fleet are to be powered by electricity. This paper quantifies the impacts on energy and carbon dioxide emissions of this 10% EV target by 2020. In order to do this an ‘EV Car Stock’ model was developed to analyse the historical and future make-up of the passenger car portion of the fleet to 2025. Three scenarios for possible take-up in EVs were examined and the associated energy and emissions impacts are quantified. These impacts are then compared to Ireland’s 10% RES-T target and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets for 2020. Two key findings of the study are that the 10% EV target contributes 1.7% to the 10% RES-T target by 2020 and 1.4% to the 20% reduction in Non-ETS emissions by 2020 relative to 2005.

AN INJECTOR AMPLIFIER DOUBLE TARGET CONFIGURATION FOR THE NE-LIKE GE X-RAY LASER SCHEME

The XUV lasing output from one germanium slab target has been efficiently coupled into, and further amplified in, a second plasma produced by irradiation of a similar target from the opposite direction. The operation of such a double target was shown to be strongly dependent on the distance by which the two target surfaces were displaced. The line brightness peaked for a surface displacement of approximately 200-mu-m and it was observed that the pointing direction of one output beam could be controlled by the surface separation in an asymmetric geometry. Gain length products of approximately 16 with estimated output powers close to the megawatt level were achieved on both the 23.2 and 23.6 nm J=2-1 transitions for an optimised target configuration. Maximum effective coupling efficiencies of the individual outputs from double targets, comprising 2.2 and 1.4 cm length components, approached 100% for beams propagating from the shorter to the longer target.

EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES OF THE MNF PHOTORESONANT EXCITATION SOFT-XRL SCHEME

Photoresonant excitation has been examined as a mechanism for enhancing the maximum gain achievable on a H-like recombination scheme. Modelling of the system, using the MED101/NIMP package, has shown that the photoresonant excitation of the 1s-3p (Ly(beta)) transition at 12.644 angstrom in a H-like fluorine plasma by a Be-like manganese transition at 12.643 angstrom offers the possibility of considerable gain enhancement on the 3d-2p Balmer alpha at 80.91 angstrom over the simple H-like system. Some experimental evidence for a transitory increase in intensity on the Balmer-alpha has been obtained for a fluorine-coated C-fiber system pumped by irradiating a manganese stripe in close proximity to the fiber.

Experimental studies of the advanced fast ignitor scheme

Guided compression offers an attractive route to explore some of the physics issues of hot electron heating and transport in the fast ignition route to inertial confinement fusion, whilst avoiding the difficulties associated with establishing the stability of the channel formation pulse. X-ray images are presented that show that the guided foil remains hydrodynamically stable during the acceleration phase, which is confirmed by two-dimensional simulations. An integrated conical compression/fast electron heating experiment is presented that confirms that this approach deserves detailed study. (C) 2000 American Institute of Physics. [S1070-664X(00)02809-3].

A STRUCTURE-FROM-MOTION SCHEME THAT LOOKS FOR PARALLELS, AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR APPARENT REVERSALS IN ROTATING TRAPEZIA

Apparent reversals in rotating trapezia have been regarded as evidence that human vision favours methods which are heuristic or form dependent. However, the argument is based on the assumption that general algorithmic methods would avoid the illusion, and that has never been clear. A general algorithm for interpreting moving parallels has been developed to address the issue. It handles a considerable range of stimuli successfully, but finds multiple interpretations in situations which correspond closely to those where apparent reversals occur. This strengthens the hypothesis that apparent reversals may occur when general algorithmic methods fail and heuristics are invoked as a stopgap.

A probabilistic modelling scheme for analysis of long-term failure of cemented femoral joint replacements

Reliable prediction of long-term medical device performance using computer simulation requires consideration of variability in surgical procedure, as well as patient-specific factors. However, even deterministic simulation of long-term failure processes for such devices is time and resource consuming so that including variability can lead to excessive time to achieve useful predictions. This study investigates the use of an accelerated probabilistic framework for predicting the likely performance envelope of a device and applies it to femoral prosthesis loosening in cemented hip arthroplasty.
A creep and fatigue damage failure model for bone cement, in conjunction with an interfacial fatigue model for the implant–cement interface, was used to simulate loosening of a prosthesis within a cement mantle. A deterministic set of trial simulations was used to account for variability of a set of surgical and patient factors, and a response surface method was used to perform and accelerate a Monte Carlo simulation to achieve an estimate of the likely range of prosthesis loosening. The proposed framework was used to conceptually investigate the influence of prosthesis selection and surgical placement on prosthesis migration.
Results demonstrate that the response surface method is capable of dramatically reducing the time to achieve convergence in mean and variance of predicted response variables. A critical requirement for realistic predictions is the size and quality of the initial training dataset used to generate the response surface and further work is required to determine the recommendations for a minimum number of initial trials. Results of this conceptual application predicted that loosening was sensitive to the implant size and femoral width. Furthermore, different rankings of implant performance were predicted when only individual simulations (e.g. an average condition) were used to rank implants, compared with when stochastic simulations were used. In conclusion, the proposed framework provides a viable approach to predicting realistic ranges of loosening behaviour for orthopaedic implants in reduced timeframes compared with conventional Monte Carlo simulations.

LIAD-fs scheme for studies of ultrafast laser interactions with gas phase biomolecules

Laser induced acoustic desorption (LIAD) has been used for the first time to study the parent ion production and fragmentation mechanisms of a biological molecule in an intense femtosecond (fs) laser field. The photoacoustic shock wave generated in the analyte substrate (thin Ta foil) has been simulated using the hydrodynamic HYADES code, and the full LIAD process has been experimentally characterised as a function of the desorption UV-laser pulse parameters. Observed neutral plumes of densities > 10(9) cm(-3) which are free from solvent or matrix contamination demonstrate the suitability and potential of the source for studying ultrafast dynamics in the gas phase using fs laser pulses. Results obtained with phenylalanine show that through manipulation of fundamental femtosecond laser parameters (such as pulse length, intensity and wavelength), energy deposition within the molecule can be controlled to allow enhancement of parent ion production or generation of characteristic fragmentation patterns. In particular by reducing the pulse length to a timescale equivalent to the fastest vibrational periods in the molecule, we demonstrate how fragmentation of the molecule can be minimised whilst maintaining a high ionisation efficiency.